The Twins' Next Carlos Santana Could Be Free Agent Mark Canha

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda are better options then Canha.  Why block any of them?

Canha doesn't block any of them. They're all starters even with Canha on the roster. Canha makes sure Julien isn't the everyday DH.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda are better options then Canha.  Why block any of them?

I'd look at Canha more like taking Margot's spot from last year no? If all 3 of those guys are starting and producing, Canha isn't in front of them in my opinion. 

Would be nice to see any of them put a full season together at some point.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I agree to a certain extent. Guys like Miranda and Julien even have an option remaining, so it's not like you have to jettison anyone to make this work. 

Having depth like this sets a baseline at minimum. If/when the young guys are ready to clear that baseline, then they will be up. And also, who are we kidding, when in the history of the Twins has everyone on the 26 man roster all been healthy at the same time?

I don't think options should be used as a means to bury players as injury replacement depth. I think options should be used so players can make adjustments to their game while not hurting team performance. Optioning a player to AAA can help them address weaknesses exposed at the MLB level which has prevented them from being successful at the MLB level. After which, it's critical to test whether or not the player has truly adapted at the MLB level. Once options are gone, there's no way to gauge whether or not a player will likely be successful; you just have to throw them onto the 26 man and hope they're not a liability all year/all career.

Julien (a26 season) and Miranda (a27 season) so they're really entering borrowed time for development. Of course, Canha isn't really a major 1B candidate for the Twins. He's going to viewed as a corner OF'er since that's where the Twins really need the RH bat. 

Neither Trevor Larnach nor Matt Wallner have ever played 1B save for a single game in Cape Code Summer League for Larnach back in 2016. If the Twins are moving them out of the corners in favor of Mark Canha, Larnach or Wallner probably move to DH.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, bean5302 said:

I don't think options should be used as a means to bury players as injury replacement depth. I think options should be used so players can make adjustments to their game while not hurting team performance. Optioning a player to AAA can help them address weaknesses exposed at the MLB level which has prevented them from being successful at the MLB level. After which, it's critical to test whether or not the player has truly adapted at the MLB level. Once options are gone, there's no way to gauge whether or not a player will likely be successful; you just have to throw them onto the 26 man and hope they're not a liability all year/all career.

Julien (a26 season) and Miranda (a27 season) so they're really entering borrowed time for development. Of course, Canha isn't really a major 1B candidate for the Twins. He's going to viewed as a corner OF'er since that's where the Twins really need the RH bat. 

Neither Trevor Larnach nor Matt Wallner have ever played 1B save for a single game in Cape Code Summer League for Larnach back in 2016. If the Twins are moving them out of the corners in favor of Mark Canha, Larnach or Wallner probably move to DH.

I hope that Larnach and Wallner can earn a spot written in pen in the lineup for the next 3-5 years.

They have a chance to earn it. It's not a given yet, right? And of course, if they don't earn it, the could be a tradeable asset for someone else too.

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hope that Larnach and Wallner can earn a spot written in pen in the lineup for the next 3-5 years.

They have a chance to earn it. It's not a given yet, right? And of course, if they don't earn it, the could be a tradeable asset for someone else too.

Well, the Twins can always trade off all their prospects and pre-arb/arb eligible guys for cheap 35+ year old players in the twilight of their careers who've earned it, I guess? It's not a strategy any other team in baseball has followed, but it would be an interesting roster construction experiment.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

On the current depth chart Miranda is 1B, Larnach is LF, Julien is DH. Lee, Martin and Helman are your bench.

Canha can be a better DH than Julien and a better corner OF bat than Martin. Personally, I think they can do better than Canha, but they're not wrong that he makes the team better.

That is not a good DH/Bench situation as all are minor league players currently.    Admit you made a mistake and send Larnach and whatever to Cincy for Steer.   You get a corner infielder, LF and a right handed hitter

[Brandon]

With his numbers, I prefer in house options to start at 1B.  But if he were signed to back up LF, RF, 1B, and DH and plans on 300 plate appearances then yes sign for 3-4 million.  He would then be insurance and a solid floor at 1B if Miranda, Larnarch, Severino, or Julien don’t run away with the position.  
 

I prefer bringing Santana back first if that is an option.  

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

0.5 bWAR for a full time position player = negative value. That's the kind of guy you can replace with AAA guys or MiLB free agents. I will continue to maintain that signing full time position guys who are expected to contribute substantially less than 2.0 WAR is foolhardy.

A team needs about 2.5 WAR from each position player, 2.0 WAR from each rotation arm, and 0.5 WAR from bullpen and backup positions to have a good chance at the playoffs. When you bring in players like Mark Cahna, it puts pressure on everybody else.

If the Twins need the payroll space, they need to trade for a right handed outfielder who provides more value, and somebody who can cover CF.

I agree on the 2.0WAR (or less) veterans being signed for whatever $$, doesn’t make sense …….just play Martin & Kiersey as with through mid-May and hope one of them takes off……..let Emma get more AB’s at AAA so he can drop into a slot by June 1. Don’t need Cahna or Grichuk or similar!

[JD-TWINS]

50 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hope that Larnach and Wallner can earn a spot written in pen in the lineup for the next 3-5 years.

They have a chance to earn it. It's not a given yet, right? And of course, if they don't earn it, the could be a tradeable asset for someone else too.

Tough to trade guys that can’t earn a spot in the present club……I like them both. They both earned my respect in ‘24. I had high expectations for Wallner and he was brutal early……really came back and produced for 10 weeks! Larnach looked like a professional hitter and just kept exuding more confidence and a calm at the plate. PEN might be OK if it’s erasable ink…. I do think they will be mainstays in the line-up!!

[Cory Engelhardt]

41 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Well, the Twins can always trade off all their prospects and pre-arb/arb eligible guys for cheap 35+ year old players in the twilight of their careers who've earned it, I guess? It's not a strategy any other team in baseball has followed, but it would be an interesting roster construction experiment.

What is this in reference to?

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Tough to trade guys that can’t earn a spot in the present club……I like them both. They both earned my respect in ‘24. I had high expectations for Wallner and he was brutal early……really came back and produced for 10 weeks! Larnach looked like a professional hitter and just kept exuding more confidence and a calm at the plate. PEN might be OK if it’s erasable ink…. I do think they will be mainstays in the line-up!!

You might be right. I worry a little about the corner defense the two of them (combined) will provide. But their bats were better as a whole in 2024 than they were previously.

I wouldn't trade Larnach (for example) just to get rid of him. I didn't mean it like that. But I do have high hopes for Rodriguez and Keaschall too. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hope that Larnach and Wallner can earn a spot written in pen in the lineup for the next 3-5 years.

Agree on Wallner. I hope Larnach does well enough to get traded for something good and Walker Jenkins takes his spot for the next 5 years.

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Agree on Wallner. I hope Larnach does well enough to get traded for something good and Walker Jenkins takes his spot for the next 5 years.

Everything has to play out. But you are right, if they trade someone, I hope it's to trade from an area of depth to add to an area of need.

You always need pitching, and they certainly could use some more catching in the system overall. If I am trading someone, it's to help in another area.

[old nurse]

The chance that Canha has a Carlos Santana kind of season is almost nil.  So there is no way he can be the next Santana. He has a chance to be the next Margot, but I would hope not. At best he would be a league average player. Some days he would be an asset, more days non contributory.  It is a move that is not going to put the team on top. 

[Doctor Gast]

As I've said before, I'd prefer OFers with options than those who don't. I'm not totally against getting Canha IF we need a RH RF platoon, if we need a RH RF platoon we can't afford the big money he wants especially with a poorer '24. We can wait, so if we can pick him up for $3M I'd consider it.

[bean5302]

I think some of the expectations are just a bit unrealistic.

1. The Twins are going to be at $130MM or below this year. If you want to argue they'd go to $135MM including Dobnaks' sunk cost, sure, but it's the same spot.
2. The Twins are at about $135-140MM, today, right now based on expected arbitration values and all the contracts they've tendered.
3. Canha is probably in line for a similar contract as Max Kepler who is probably similar to Wil Myers's deal in 2023 at 1yr $7.5MM

We can nitpick whether or not Wallner or Larnach or Miranda are going to be good enough to be every day starters, but the bottom line is they really need to be good enough (or part of a trade that can return players who are good enough) if the Twins are going to be successful in 2025.

Here's how the Twins' fWAR graded out by position last year:
DH = -0.1
C = +2.9
*1B = +3.2
2B = +0.7
3B = +2.5
SS = +5.9
LF = +2.2
CF = +3.6 (-0.3 WAR without Buxton)
*RF = +2.5

DH and 2B were black holes for production as was CF apart from Buxton. *1B and RF were solid, but the main position players in those spots are now free agents.

Does Canha actually address the Twins' weakness spots from 2024 (CF/DH/1B)? No. Does Canha address expected spots of weakness in 2025? Probably not. Do the Twins have the financial resources to get somebody who definitely does? Nope.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think some of the expectations are just a bit unrealistic.

1. The Twins are going to be at $130MM or below this year. If you want to argue they'd go to $135MM including Dobnaks' sunk cost, sure, but it's the same spot.
2. The Twins are at about $135-140MM, today, right now based on expected arbitration values and all the contracts they've tendered.
3. Canha is probably in line for a similar contract as Max Kepler who is probably similar to Wil Myers's deal in 2023 at 1yr $7.5MM

We can nitpick whether or not Wallner or Larnach or Miranda are going to be good enough to be every day starters, but the bottom line is they really need to be good enough (or part of a trade that can return players who are good enough) if the Twins are going to be successful in 2025.

Here's how the Twins' fWAR graded out by position last year:
DH = -0.1
C = +2.9
*1B = +3.2
2B = +0.7
3B = +2.5
SS = +5.9
LF = +2.2
CF = +3.6 (-0.3 WAR without Buxton)
*RF = +2.5

DH and 2B were black holes for production as was CF apart from Buxton. *1B and RF were solid, but the main position players in those spots are now free agents.

Does Canha actually address the Twins' weakness spots from 2024 (CF/DH/1B)? No. Does Canha address expected spots of weakness in 2025? Probably not. Do the Twins have the financial resources to get somebody who definitely does? Nope.

The frustration for many people (not all), including me, is that the Twins know this too. This is precisely why returning the same team doesn't seem like a plan. Trades need to be made. Some young players with talent need a little rope to learn and then produce. Above all, I'm an advocate for taking a couple swings at trades both small and large.

Canha is a player I mentioned three years ago three years ago. The Mets won the bid (don't think Twins called). He isn't a guy we are looking to add this winter.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins just love this type of player so I fully expect either Canha or Santana at 1B next summer.

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That's why you have cheap pre-arb guys and guys under team control. Going out and signing free agents to multi-million dollar contracts who are expected to drag on playoff team potential when a team is on a severe budget crunch is nonsensical.

It does sometimes work out of course, like Carlos Santana putting up a year nobody expected. Normally, the outcome is more like Tim Anderson.

J J Bleday.. Donnie Barrels..

[Mydaughterhastwins]

No

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

that is my real fear with any of these signings with marginal veterans. He's probably not going to hit better than Miranda, but Miranda also shouldn't be running out into the OF.

He looks like the sort of player you grab just before spring training starts for below market because he hasn't found a job yet. (aka, the Donovan Solano) I definitely don't want to run out and grab him in December. Might look better (and cheaper) in Feb

It's your second paragraph that really grabs my attention. There's a lot of differing thoughts as to how all the flux in TV deals/revenue will affect FA this offseason. We've already seen a few teams be aggressive early, but we always do. And there will be some MONSTER deals for the elite FA available. We'll also scratch our heads at some deals that take place, per usual.

There are some who feel loss/changes, or future changes, in TV/revenue are an excuse for some teams. Some believe it will have an affect once the initial surge of signings take place. Only time will tell.

But it's my gut feeling there are going to be a handful of RH bats sitting at home waiting for a deal and looking for a job come late January/early February. I'm not so certain Canha won't be one of them. But I suspect there will be others.

Right now, today, the Twins RH OF option besides Castro is Helman and Martin. While I'm a fan of Helman. And would LOVE to see him run with a chance, I'm not thrilled by him being the only option. And I wasn't particularly taken with much of Martin last season. But I'd rather run with them than Margot part 2!

IF the Twins jumped on anyone early, I'd rather see $3M or so on a solid LHRP. But if there's a Canha, Pham, Grichuk who has a good career splits against RH pitching sitting there for a steal of a deal to provide some balance for the OF/lineup, I'd be kind of excited to grab someone like that.

Said it before and will say it again, just NO MORE RH PLATOON ONLY RH bats. That player inevitably ends up playing way more than expected. And suddenly your 13th man, platoon player is in way over his head. And you short your lineup BIG TIME.

At the risk of repeating myself yet again, one of those guys I mentioned...and there are other possibilities...sitting and waiting for a job, I'm fine with a signing of one. They fit a role, shouldn't stink against RH pitching, and don't block anyone.

That's where my focus is at.

[PatG]

19 hours ago, CRF said:

C'mon man...stop messing with these guys like Canha. Just throw some more moolah into the pot and bring Goldschmidt in here for a couple years. Sure he's on the downside, but he's much better than Canha. 

Right-handed version of Jim Thome....

 

[Fred]

On 12/4/2024 at 12:48 PM, CRF said:

C'mon man...stop messing with these guys like Canha. Just throw some more moolah into the pot and bring Goldschmidt in here for a couple years. Sure he's on the downside, but he's much better than Canha. 

"Just throw some more moolah into the pot", have you ever heard the phrase "cheap Pohlads"? Supposedly they're trying to sell the team. They won't even spend if they aren't trying to sell

[Riverbrian]

Exactly the guy the Twins front office needs to replace Margot.

Exactly the guy the Twins need to make sure that they will need to sign another one just like him for 2026. 

Exactly the guy the Twins need to make sure that Trevor Larnach's will be less value to our team as a player and other teams in a trade. 

[Riverbrian]

On 12/4/2024 at 5:10 PM, bean5302 said:

We can nitpick whether or not Wallner or Larnach or Miranda are going to be good enough to be every day starters, but the bottom line is they really need to be good enough (or part of a trade that can return players who are good enough) if the Twins are going to be successful in 2025.