Would This Non-Tendered Pitcher Be a Good Fit For The Minnesota Twins?

[Eric Blonigen]

With the Minnesota Twins likely shopping in the scratch-and-dent aisle of the free agent market once again this offseason, it’ll be important for them to look for value in unexpected places. Could southpaw starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval end up with the Twins after the Angels non-tendered him?

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Last week, teams tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible players they wanted to keep, and non-tendered guys they perceived to he fringy, too expensive, or not possessing excessive value compared to their internal projections. Each season, some surprising names are non-tendered and become free agents. Two years ago, the Tigers’ poor self-scouting landed the Twins 2024 All-Star Willi Castro. Should the Twins pursue Patrick Sandoval, they could similarly benefit from another front office’s mistake—although not quite as immediately. Let’s dig in!

The Situation
The reason Sandoval’s non-tender was surprising is that he’s probably a fourth starter on a playoff-caliber team, and has two years of team control remaining. He was likely cut due to his late June Tommy John surgery. He also suffered a flexor tear, and is expected to be out until at least the second half of the season, and perhaps all year. He was projected to earn $11.8 million over the next two seasons, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Sandoval throws a deep six-pitch mix, with good off-speed and breaking pitches. He’s death on lefties, and it’s been a hot minute since the Twins have had a good lefty starter (sorry Devin Smeltzer, Rich Hill, et al).

The Upside
There are a few things that make Sandoval an intriguing fit for the Twins. First, he’s legitimately a mid-rotation arm when healthy. Prior to his injury, Steve Adams compared Sandoval to the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo and speculated he would be moved at the deadline. Over the past three seasons, Sandoval has put up a 3.66 FIP and struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings, and he's still just 28 years old. He’s been worth 7.2 fWAR in 81 starts over the past three seasons. Compare that to 7.6 fWAR for Joe Ryan and 6.7 for Bailey Ober over those same spans, and you can see what Sandoval brings to the table.

Second, it’s somewhat reasonable to expect additional upside in the Twins system compared to the Angels, who don’t have a particularly strong track record of developing pitchers (bottom third in baseball in homegrown pitching ERA and bottom quartile in innings pitched since 2012). By adjusting his pitch mix, changing the characteristics of his fastball, or making some other mechanical tweaks, there's a lot of ways to unlock a new level.

Third, having Sandoval slotted into the middle of the rotation for 2026 would give the Twins the flexibility to trade one of Pablo Lopez, Ryan, or Ober prior to the 2026 season and recoup maximum value, while they have two years of team control remaining. This could help them address other needs right as their young core starts to get expensive.

The Downside
Look, it’s a bit of a dice toss as to whether Sandoval pitches in 2025. After missing a year or more as he rehabs, he will need time to ramp up his workload. It’s also common for command to suffer, at least initially, post-Tommy John. So, even if he does pitch in 2025, it would be safest to look at him as a mid- or late-season bullpen addition. His fastball also gets hit hard, and he walks too many guys, but those issues may be fixable. Aside from those minor quibbles, there's really very little downside.

Can the Twins Afford Sandoval?
With the Twins ownership’s self-imposed budget restraints, they surely aren’t interested in paying him $5.6 million in 2025 to potentially pitch some innings down the stretch. However, perhaps there’s an opportunity to get creative. I’m looking at something similar to the two-year, $10 million deal the Twins signed with Michael Pineda prior to the 2018 season. The premise of that was to spend the first season rehabbing with the team, and fully contribute during the second season. That deal worked out well for both sides, to the point the Twins re-signed Pineda for an additional two years. Is there any reason they couldn't strike a similar bargain with Sandoval? Probably not. Heck, throw in a little deferred money if need be. 

Why Would Sandoval Be Interested in Signing with the Twins?
Sandoval has made $10 million over his career, including $5 million in 2024. So, he might be open to taking a cut for 2025, as long as his overall remaining arbitration-eligible pay stays in line with projections. He may also be interested in Minnesota, as the Twins have a recent reputation for maximizing upside for many pitchers (see: all of the Twins' current starters). He could envision a scenario where he recovers, has a career year in 2026, and hits his big payday at 30 years old.

If I’m Derek Falvey (or Jeremy Zoll), I’m making a call to Sandoval’s agent, like, yesterday, and seeing what I can work out. How about you?

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[DJL44]

Do they have room for another injured pitcher on the roster? Maybe if they dump Canterino they can add Sandoval.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

In theory, this would be a respectable gamble.  In reality, the Twins can't/won't throw $5-6m in salary to the wind this year. 

[nicksaviking]

The Tommy John recovery times almost always seem to be a half season optimistic, so I'd have no faith that he'd pitch in 2025.

If the Twins were willing to take on payroll, sure, go ahead, it's a good depth signing for two years out. But they say they aren't raising payroll and I have no apatite to drop anyone to make room for him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd be up for it if it is a similar contract to what Pineda got initially. Something like 2 million for 2025 and 8 million for 2026 would make sense, especially since this year would really just be about rehab. Good thought :)

[DocBauer]

Sorry, appreciate the notion of another "Pineda" opportunity, but I don't see a fit here at all. 

Forgetting for the moment the Twins dont have any extra $ to make this move, Sandoval is basically the same age as Lopez, Ober, and Ryan. He has a higher career ERA than all 3, had a higher BB rate than all 3, and a lower K rate than all 3, has never thrown over 150 innings, (close once), and his FB gets hit hard?

But he's a mid rotation, playoff caliber starter that could allow the Twins to MAYBE trade 1 of those 3 next offseason and take their place? And he'd probably cost around $8-10M in 2026? Wouldn't that be about the same salary as Ober or Ryan would earn in 2026? 

Other than being LH and...so far...a worse pitcher than our current big 3, what exactly gets accomplished here?

[Doctor Gast]

I was thinking the same thing but I didn't have the info really to form an opinion. So thank you Eric for providing that. IMO Sandoval would be a good fit for MN. Since he'll be used as basically as a RP in '25 IMO we should offer him $2M like Cody suggested & then $5M in '26 to prove it. I hate to trade Lopez but if that's in the cards we could have an option for '27. Just like you said he could really benefit in his development here in MN. I really don't like paying SP full price while they are rehabbing as they did with Pineda & Paddack.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In theory, this would be a respectable gamble.  In reality, the Twins can't/won't throw $5-6m in salary to the wind this year. 

This year is different from other years how?

[Parfigliano]

23 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry, appreciate the notion of another "Pineda" opportunity, but I don't see a fit here at all. 

Forgetting for the moment the Twins dont have any extra $ to make this move, Sandoval is basically the same age as Lopez, Ober, and Ryan. He has a higher career ERA than all 3, had a higher BB rate than all 3, and a lower K rate than all 3, has never thrown over 150 innings, (close once), and his FB gets hit hard?

But he's a mid rotation, playoff caliber starter that could allow the Twins to MAYBE trade 1 of those 3 next offseason and take their place? And he'd probably cost around $8-10M in 2026? Wouldn't that be about the same salary as Ober or Ryan would earn in 2026? 

Other than being LH and...so far...a worse pitcher than our current big 3, what exactly gets accomplished here?

The all important "make a move" is accomplished.

[CRF]

This is right in Falvey's wheelhouse. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

41 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

This year is different from other years how?

Really?  I mean every offseason prior to last one, the Twins spent money.  They have basically announced they are not raising payroll this offseason.  Have you not been paying attention to all the screaming on this website about the change in payroll approach?

[High heat]

If we end up trading Padack and maybe one of the you Starters (SWR,Zebby,Festa) you could sign him to a multi year deal.  
 

I do like Sandoval with no financial resources and no immediate need at SP I don’t think it will happen.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Really?  I mean every offseason prior to last one, the Twins spent money.  They have basically announced they are not raising payroll this offseason.  Have you not been paying attention to all the screaming on this website about the change in payroll approach?

Right, they throw this kind of money at players we all like much, much less pretty much every year.

I guess that may end up being one benefit of having no money to spend this year!

[Reptevia]

Isn’t this guy basically Paddock?

[Parfigliano]

31 minutes ago, High heat said:

If we end up trading Padack and maybe one of the you Starters (SWR,Zebby,Festa) you could sign him to a multi year deal.  
 

I do like Sandoval with no financial resources and no immediate need at SP I don’t think it will happen.

Or keep the young pitching they have and leave the scrap on the heap.

[High heat]

43 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Or keep the young pitching they have and leave the scrap on the heap.

If you’re able to get a solid position player in a package.  (You do have to give something good to get something good) and then can sign a solid controllable starter I think that’s a solid plan.  

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

If you’re able to get a solid position player in a package.  (You do have to give something good to get something good) and then can sign a solid controllable starter I think that’s a solid plan.  

The 3 young pitchers are controlled starters.

[tony&rodney]

This year, 2024/2025, the answer is no.

Good speculation though.

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was thinking the same thing but I didn't have the info really to form an opinion. So thank you Eric for providing that. IMO Sandoval would be a good fit for MN. Since he'll be used as basically as a RP in '25 IMO we should offer him $2M like Cody suggested & then $5M in '26 to prove it. I hate to trade Lopez but if that's in the cards we could have an option for '27. Just like you said he could really benefit in his development here in MN. I really don't like paying SP full price while they are rehabbing as they did with Pineda & Paddack.

I've been advocating for a lefthander  in the rotation for quite sometime  ...

If he pitches this year at all I agree it most likely will be in bullpen at an inning  or maybe 3 innings at a time   ... 

He definitely isn't a dumpster diving player so there is some upside on signing him like we did Pineda , he wouldn't  take a roster spot right away as he would be added to the 60 day IL list , but I think we'd have to wait until spring training  to do that  , if we signed him now he would have to sign a minor league contract off the 40 man roster  , if now or before spring training  or the season started  if signed he would be added to the 40 man ...

You catch my drift  doc ???

 

[gmwannabe]

Reid Detmers would be a more worthwhile reclamation project than Sandoval and cheaper. 

[weitz41]

This makes a lot of sense. Let's say for that sake of augment. The Twins hold onto Paddack and his 7.5 mil the upcoming season. If you sign Sandoval for 2 years 10-12 mil and back load it, it's a wash. Plus, it would buy time for another pitcher or two to establish themselves.  If Paddack or Sandoval has a great season, then you have the qualifying offer angle. I like it. Seems like a win win. Even if neither has a great year heading to free agency.

[David HK]

It doesn't matter what his history or stats are. The most important ingredient to the Twins' front office are the words "non-tendered." AKA- "cheap."

[Rosterman]

If you can afford to have him for future depth. Hey, the Twins are staying paying Dobnak. And it is an easy roster spot to open up, if you need to add someone to the 40-man come the season.

[Fatbat]

Plenty of room on the 60 day iL. Sign him up and while you’re at it. Buy out his age 30 year with a team option. The pohlads wont be around long enough to have to pay him. 

[LambchoP]

I laughed so hard at this. The article asks if this pitcher would be a good fit for the Twins and then the first picture of the guy is him standing there in a huge arm brace lol. Yup, perfect fit indeed:)

[High heat]

On 11/27/2024 at 6:01 PM, Parfigliano said:

The 3 young pitchers are controlled starters.

Correct which is what would make them appealing and carry significant value to the team you are trading them too.  
 

People forget that you have to trade value you get equal value in return. 
 

 

[John Buckeye1]

I'm such a sucker for this move, because a couple years ago I went with my friend who's an Angels fan to a game that Sandoval started against us and he almost pitched a no-hitter. I had barely heard of the guy before then, and I am shocked to hear he's fallen on harder times since then- but he might like pitching in Target Field, so why not take a chance?!