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Last week, teams tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible players they wanted to keep, and non-tendered guys they perceived to he fringy, too expensive, or not possessing excessive value compared to their internal projections. Each season, some surprising names are non-tendered and become free agents. Two years ago, the Tigers’ poor self-scouting landed the Twins 2024 All-Star Willi Castro. Should the Twins pursue Patrick Sandoval, they could similarly benefit from another front office’s mistake—although not quite as immediately. Let’s dig in!
The Situation
The reason Sandoval’s non-tender was surprising is that he’s probably a fourth starter on a playoff-caliber team, and has two years of team control remaining. He was likely cut due to his late June Tommy John surgery. He also suffered a flexor tear, and is expected to be out until at least the second half of the season, and perhaps all year. He was projected to earn $11.8 million over the next two seasons, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Sandoval throws a deep six-pitch mix, with good off-speed and breaking pitches. He’s death on lefties, and it’s been a hot minute since the Twins have had a good lefty starter (sorry Devin Smeltzer, Rich Hill, et al).
The Upside
There are a few things that make Sandoval an intriguing fit for the Twins. First, he’s legitimately a mid-rotation arm when healthy. Prior to his injury, Steve Adams compared Sandoval to the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo and speculated he would be moved at the deadline. Over the past three seasons, Sandoval has put up a 3.66 FIP and struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings, and he's still just 28 years old. He’s been worth 7.2 fWAR in 81 starts over the past three seasons. Compare that to 7.6 fWAR for Joe Ryan and 6.7 for Bailey Ober over those same spans, and you can see what Sandoval brings to the table.
Second, it’s somewhat reasonable to expect additional upside in the Twins system compared to the Angels, who don’t have a particularly strong track record of developing pitchers (bottom third in baseball in homegrown pitching ERA and bottom quartile in innings pitched since 2012). By adjusting his pitch mix, changing the characteristics of his fastball, or making some other mechanical tweaks, there's a lot of ways to unlock a new level.
Third, having Sandoval slotted into the middle of the rotation for 2026 would give the Twins the flexibility to trade one of Pablo Lopez, Ryan, or Ober prior to the 2026 season and recoup maximum value, while they have two years of team control remaining. This could help them address other needs right as their young core starts to get expensive.
The Downside
Look, it’s a bit of a dice toss as to whether Sandoval pitches in 2025. After missing a year or more as he rehabs, he will need time to ramp up his workload. It’s also common for command to suffer, at least initially, post-Tommy John. So, even if he does pitch in 2025, it would be safest to look at him as a mid- or late-season bullpen addition. His fastball also gets hit hard, and he walks too many guys, but those issues may be fixable. Aside from those minor quibbles, there's really very little downside.
Can the Twins Afford Sandoval?
With the Twins ownership’s self-imposed budget restraints, they surely aren’t interested in paying him $5.6 million in 2025 to potentially pitch some innings down the stretch. However, perhaps there’s an opportunity to get creative. I’m looking at something similar to the two-year, $10 million deal the Twins signed with Michael Pineda prior to the 2018 season. The premise of that was to spend the first season rehabbing with the team, and fully contribute during the second season. That deal worked out well for both sides, to the point the Twins re-signed Pineda for an additional two years. Is there any reason they couldn't strike a similar bargain with Sandoval? Probably not. Heck, throw in a little deferred money if need be.
Why Would Sandoval Be Interested in Signing with the Twins?
Sandoval has made $10 million over his career, including $5 million in 2024. So, he might be open to taking a cut for 2025, as long as his overall remaining arbitration-eligible pay stays in line with projections. He may also be interested in Minnesota, as the Twins have a recent reputation for maximizing upside for many pitchers (see: all of the Twins' current starters). He could envision a scenario where he recovers, has a career year in 2026, and hits his big payday at 30 years old.
If I’m Derek Falvey (or Jeremy Zoll), I’m making a call to Sandoval’s agent, like, yesterday, and seeing what I can work out. How about you?
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