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Posted

The Minnesota Twins had some obvious needs heading into the 2024 MLB trade deadline, but they neglected them. As the season circles the drain, it’s time to look back and analyze what the organization may have been thinking.

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The Twins' inaction at the trade deadline was inexcusable. It’s impossible to ignore that, as we watch a severely understaffed roster find new ways to lose on a daily basis. There will be plenty of raw emotion directed at their fateful decision in July, and rightfully so. Still, it’s important to try to follow the circumstances that led to the decisions they made.

We can’t talk about the 2024 trade deadline without acknowledging that it felt much different than previous ones. The expanded playoffs limited the pool of clear sellers, driving up the acquisition prices for even short-term, medium-impact players. The front office echoed this point following the quiet passing of the deadline. 

We saw several starters and relievers traded for strong returns, and even got word that acquiring a mid-rotation arm like Erick Fedde would have cost the Twins one of their top prospects, perhaps because of an intradivisional trade tax. Some rental relievers were traded for MLB-ready high-end prospects, something we haven't seen happen in a long time. The Twins decided to hold onto their highly regarded farm system, and live or die with what they had--aside from Trevor Richards, that is, who likely wound up being responsible for a loss or two all by himself before being designated for assignment a few weeks after being acquired.

Unfortunately, financial restraints are also a consideration. While the exact details will never be public, the Twins certainly had very little space to add salary. There was some suggestion that doing so would have required trading away someone like Max Kepler to offset the cost. While the front office could have gotten creative, they had a tough needle to thread.

The Twins' history at the trade deadline is also worth considering in tandem with both points. This front office's history of acquiring players via trade during competitive seasons is flat-out putrid. Sergio Romo is one of the only deadline acquisitions under this regime to come in and increase the team's odds of winning anything. Sam Dyson, Tyler Mahle, and Jorge López are a few examples of players acquired to bolster competitive rosters down the stretch, but who instead imploded spectacularly. After watching this play out so many times before, it’s possible that the Twins preferred to mirror their low-wattage but successful 2023 trade deadline, rather than pay up to make a huge, risky splash.

This is where the devil’s advocate act ends, however. The Twins are in a death spiral, and a lack of meaningful additions to the team is directly to blame. Slashing payroll resulted in lower-tier additions this last offseason, and aside from Carlos Santana (who has been a glowing success), the team hasn’t added an external player to the roster who has contributed in a meaningful way in almost two years.

Some may praise the front office for their frugalness in keeping all of their prospects this deadline, deeming the prices too expensive. The problem is that every other competitive team in baseball disagreed, because they felt that improving their current roster was priority number one. At a certain point, “too expensive” is simply the market price everyone else is paying. It can be argued that the Twins are set up better for 2025, but there are no guarantees with prospects. The history of baseball is riddled with trades involving exciting prospects who never even make it to the majors.

The Royals overhauled their bullpen at the deadline, not only by acquiring Lucas Erceg but by adding Michael Lorenzen to their rotation, deepening their pen through salutary demotion. They then reinforced their outfield in August with waiver claims, paying the remaining salaries of Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman to add them to their mix and snapping up Yuli Gurriel to replace the injured Vinnie Pasquantino. The Guardians only added Alex Cobb to their rotation, and his injury issues have persisted, but they also bolstered their outfield with Lane Thomas, who was atrocious in August but is hitting .294/.324/.603 for them in September. Those teams got better heading into the late summer, because they committed themselves to doing so.

Competitive windows are unpredictable, even when an MLB roster looks so primed for future success with a robust farm system propping them up. Look no further than the Chicago White Sox, across the division, who were supposed to be in the middle of one right now. The Twins' season may look completely different if they had even one more decent reliever. Instead, they’re watching their playoff hopes come crashing down in September for the second time in three years, which would be an embarrassing outcome for a contending team in the era of expanded playoffs.

We can’t say this was their last big chance to go on a run, as much of the team will be returning in 2025, but given how this season has unfolded, there are no guarantees. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey is not currently under contract beyond this season, as far as we or anyone else outside the organization knows. One must wonder if the payroll situation may affect his decision about whether to return.

Speaking of the payroll, another reduction could be coming this winter, after attendance projections were not even close to being met in 2024. The team cut $30 million this last offseason, even after they received most of the payout they were accustomed to from their deal with Bally Sports. This will almost certainly not be the case in 2025. If the club misses out on the financial boost of making the playoffs, it will only increase ownership's urgency to save money. In addition to that lost revenue, attendance projections will see a sharp decline, as many fans will have likely been lost due to their inability to watch games on television and the overall state of the team.

Competitive seasons are precious in baseball. Sometimes, magical things happen, and sometimes, they flame out. A team’s goal should be to improve its odds in this unpredictable game as much as possible. The Twins did not see the need to do so after their first playoff win in two decades, and it’s cost them dearly. The only question is whether the organization realizes to what degree yet.


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Posted

Past failures at the deadline is not an excuse to not make any trades this year. Competitive windows can close up in an instant, and with more payroll cutting this off-season, our window may be closing faster than it should be. Maybe they surprise us this off-season with something. Maybe they held on to all our prospects at the deadline so they could make some moves in the off-season. We need a lot of pitching help and offensively we need to find guys who can hit and drive in runs, with almost zero money to do it with.... we'll see I guess 

Posted

This article could have been written in one paragraph:

The Twins were not allowed to spend any substantive money at the deadline.  They players the team would have wanted to trade had no trade value.  They could not move valuable pieces as they were in a pennant race.  We are now seeing the results of that mess.

Posted

Ignoring the on-the-field benefits (or detriments) of roster shuffling via trades or waiver claims, they act as such a signal to the players in the clubhouse. 

The season was over the moment Carlos Correa went to his bosses with a list of players that could help this team and management replied with the Pawn Shop meme and threw an objectively bad pitcher into the bullpen instead. 

Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb are not world beaters, but it signaled to the players in that clubhouse that the organization wanted to help them out. Erceg and Lorenzen, same thing. I already forgot the bum the Twins added, but all he signaled to the club was that they wanted to act like they care. Like buying pizza for an office meeting in which you're announcing layoffs. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

With the benefit of hindsight, the Twins should have traded Max Kepler at the deadline. They should have traded Carlos Santana as well, his production was mostly in June.

The White Sox, by losing 12 of 13 and providing the illusion of the Twins being a decent team, hurt this organization. 

Damn them. 

Posted

Great article.  I'm worried that next year could be disastrous.   I'm hoping not.  But with Lopez salary bumping to 22 million next added to correct 36 million and Buxtons 17 million that doesn't leave much to build the roster.  The future of many of our prospects is very unproven.  They don't seem to be developing, probably regressing.  I'm basically talking about players currently on the roster or close to it.  Management's insistence on going full board analytics and platooning has not helped the young players careers.  They need to play and play regularly whether it's against lefties or right handers. Players like that need to play fulltime to see what they can do.  All most of our current twins prospects play mostly part time.  This begs a future issue.  Why would a young player want to sign with the Twins knowing they likely will be relegated to part time status?

 

Posted
38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Ignoring the on-the-field benefits (or detriments) of roster shuffling via trades or waiver claims, they act as such a signal to the players in the clubhouse. 

The season was over the moment Carlos Correa went to his bosses with a list of players that could help this team and management replied with the Pawn Shop meme and threw an objectively bad pitcher into the bullpen instead. 

Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb are not world beaters, but it signaled to the players in that clubhouse that the organization wanted to help them out. Erceg and Lorenzen, same thing. I already forgot the bum the Twins added, but all he signaled to the club was that they wanted to act like they care. Like buying pizza for an office meeting in which you're announcing layoffs. 

Exactly! Look what the royals and guardians did. There was definitely value out there if you explored it! We didn’t need a Juan Soto type blockbuster. Just 2-3 competent moves that help. It’s obvious the front office had their hands more than tied by ownership because there was no wiggle room at all considering they didn’t even make moves on the waiver wire in august when there was value there for a couple million. When I say their hands were tied I’m being very generous. Seems to me it looked like a hostage situation more than a silly Chinese finger trap game. That is truly how sad this whole situation has become for a billion+ dollar franchise.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article.  I'm worried that next year could be disastrous.   I'm hoping not.  But with Lopez salary bumping to 22 million next added to correct 36 million and Buxtons 17 million that doesn't leave much to build the roster.  The future of many of our prospects is very unproven.  They don't seem to be developing, probably regressing.  I'm basically talking about players currently on the roster or close to it.  Management's insistence on going full board analytics and platooning has not helped the young players careers.  They need to play and play regularly whether it's against lefties or right handers. Players like that need to play fulltime to see what they can do.  All most of our current twins prospects play mostly part time.  This begs a future issue.  Why would a young player want to sign with the Twins knowing they likely will be relegated to part time status?

 

Great point! Also, why would a guy like Correa want to stay here? Also, expect some turnover in the front office with one of Falvey or Levine being in a different organization come spring.

Posted
1 hour ago, Maybebaby said:

Maybe the Twins should do what the Vikings did when moving on from Cousins/Hunter whom were tying up all the $$$.  How do they do the same with Buck/Corea?  Unloading those 2 who aren't making a big enough difference might get us several players who do move the needle??????  What the hey?

They are probably pondering that for sure but don’t expect them to use all that savings for anything as far as talent. Think Terry Ryan days and the dumpster diving he would do as far as free agent spending. 

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted

AJ Puk has now appeared in 25 games for Arizona with a 0.39 ERA.

23 IP, 4 BB, 36 Ks.

He went pretty cheap. Minimal salary. Controlled through 2026.

Was exactly, EXACTLY the guy they needed.

Simply zero reason he shouldn't have been a Twin.

And SO easy to see ahead of time.

Get that done and find a way to get Blake Snell and we'd likely be in 1st place in the ALC.

 

Posted
21 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article.  I'm worried that next year could be disastrous.   I'm hoping not.  But with Lopez salary bumping to 22 million next added to correct 36 million and Buxtons 17 million that doesn't leave much to build the roster.  The future of many of our prospects is very unproven.  They don't seem to be developing, probably regressing.  I'm basically talking about players currently on the roster or close to it.  Management's insistence on going full board analytics and platooning has not helped the young players careers.  They need to play and play regularly whether it's against lefties or right handers. Players like that need to play fulltime to see what they can do.  All most of our current twins prospects play mostly part time.  This begs a future issue.  Why would a young player want to sign with the Twins knowing they likely will be relegated to part time status?

 

I am too tbh. The starting pitching should be OK with the rookies able to get more comfortable there. I think Festa is fine, and between Matthews, Adams, Lewis, Morris, Culpepper, and others I think their high minors depth is good enough. And, honestly, I don't think anyone should really concern themselves with the bullpen (more so with it's shuffling and management). 

But the bats just are not inspiring. I said this yesterday but Lewis has gone from a 24 stud hitting bombs in the playoffs and a franchise player to...a pretty good bat with questionable defense and major injury concerns. Lee looks like he's not ready. Julien lol. Wallner, major strikeout issues and questionable defense really limiting his upside. Jeffers was a mirage. 

And the most concerning thing is, Lee excepted, we aren't able to say about them "well, they're still young". No, these are players that should be hitting their stride.

This was THE year. And it was a massive failure. 

Posted

I think this is going to be how trade deadlines are just going to be from now on, expanded playoffs have pushed up the demand and reduced supply for trades. The Astros paying two top-20 prospects for a rental starter with an ERA north of 4 sounds like a reasonable overpay to win-now, but we didn't need to match that bid, we needed to top it. I'm undecided on how much I want to blame the FO for backing off. I feel like I need to see a few more seasons of expanded playoffs before I feel totally comfortable passing judgment.

My hunch is that the fallout of expanded playoffs is that the front office absolutely needs to get the offseason right, and avoid leaving anything to clean up at the deadline, because band-aids have become expensive.

Posted
1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

With the benefit of hindsight, the Twins should have traded Max Kepler at the deadline. They should have traded Carlos Santana as well, his production was mostly in June.

Joe P said he wanted to be like the Rays Brewers, etc. dumping Kepler is exactly the kind of move that those organizations make to keep bringing in talent and keep their payroll low.

Posted

The trade deadline is the last chance to stock up. Not stocking up is incredibly risky. Injuries, slumps... just plain things still occur to a baseball team in August and September. 

There are no guarantees the trade deadline acquisitions won't blow up in our faces as we all know but it you have to make the attempt because you won't know what you need in August or September or the playoffs. 

I often say Buyers Buy and Sellers sell... anything else is standing still. And I mean it with all of my heart but with that said... I can't completely throw any front office under the bus because I have no idea what other teams were asking for.

I agree with Chief... A.J. Puk would have been near the top of my shopping list but I can't judge what players Miami liked and didn't like. We can look at what Miami got from Arizona and say Minnesota could have topped that. It sure looks like they could have but what if Miami really really really really liked De Los Santos and Pintar. I have no way of knowing how Miami felt about players... other than assume they liked those guys because they acquired them.  

There have to be limits because you are not going to give up Jenkins for a rental bullpen guy. That's an extreme example obviously but there has to be limits to what you will give up and I have to assume that it's possible that Miami was asking for more from Minnesota than they asked from Arizona because they liked the players Arizona was willing to part with.  

And will all of that said... Other contending teams were able to acquire talent at the deadline. The Twins were not. Whatever the reason we didn't acquire help... in the end... this is two years in a row and that makes me uncomfortable. 

On the other hand... Detroit sold and exploded afterwards with youth piled upon youth. 

 

 

Posted

We advanced into the postseason last year & this offseason we basically had the same core. The only hole we needed to fill was Gray. I was hoping for a front-line SP but with the hope that Ryan & Ober would take the next step, all we needed was a mid-rotation inning eater via small trade (that wouldn't cost a dime) to take the pressure off the BP & rotation, that had to be the priority. That need was not addressed & that is where our biggest problem lies. Instead, they squandered the very little money we had on frivolous salaries for players that didn't work out. 

At the deadline a LHRP need popped up. There were many great reasonable options early but FO's strategy is wait & see what's available at the very end again a need was not met. The problem wasn't money but seeing the need early & making the right trades that never happened.

Posted

The Twins needed an innings eater starter who MIGHT keep them in the game. Something the Royals picked up for a few starts. Just to give any new blood a... rest.

They also needed to fortify the bullpen. It seemed like every day the week before the end of the deadline a relief pitcher was changing and msot of them were lefties to boot.

Did no one want Kepler? The Twins will absically lose him for nothing. At best, they trade him for prospects to get salary relief to add someone. At worse, he stuck around and did... what?

Prospects? Prospects? The Twins have some 150 players in the system. As the team currently stands, the bulk of the protected 40-man roster will be here for a minimun of 3 seasons, the bulk for maybe 5-6. Looking at two or three names as probably future outfielders for sure, a couple of surefire hits for the crowded infield, and maybe a half-dozen strong rotation arms that could flare back to the pen, you still have some pretty good names to offer in trade because of over-depth issues at the moment. The front office is always looking down the road, who will become Rule 5 eligible this or next season, who will be a minor league free agent. There were names to package, especially for a relief pitcher.

Attendance for 2024 will be about the same as it was for 2023, which was an increase of 2022. Amazing since people weren't able to watch games on television, although the Twins were paid in the end, which makes the payroll cut moot. 

Quote

 

 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

On the other hand... Detroit sold and exploded afterwards with youth piled upon youth. 

 

Detroit is a fascinating story.  They really came out of nowhere.  Addition via subtraction.

At this point I believe the Twins are more likely to finish ahead of KC than Detroit, as the Tigers get to wrap up the season against the White Sox.  KC is pretty much in a free fall just like the Twins, and they have to finish with a 6 game road trip.  I don't really like the odds for the Twins to finish ahead of either team in the wildcard race though.

And yes, to echo Chief, Puk would have made all the difference this year.

Posted
49 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think this is going to be how trade deadlines are just going to be from now on, expanded playoffs have pushed up the demand and reduced supply for trades. The Astros paying two top-20 prospects for a rental starter with an ERA north of 4 sounds like a reasonable overpay to win-now, but we didn't need to match that bid, we needed to top it. I'm undecided on how much I want to blame the FO for backing off. I feel like I need to see a few more seasons of expanded playoffs before I feel totally comfortable passing judgment.

My hunch is that the fallout of expanded playoffs is that the front office absolutely needs to get the offseason right, and avoid leaving anything to clean up at the deadline, because band-aids have become expensive.

And yet, nearly every other team in contention added players. This isn't a MLB issue at all......

This ownership group isn't interested in winning, that's clear. I agree with the posters above, next year could be bad.

Posted
40 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Yet another way in which the expanded playoffs have ruined the regular season...

 

Strong disagree. I'd have even more teams in the playoffs. The goal is for as many fans in as many cities to still care about MLB in September, not to have only 4 cities in each league care. IMO, of course.

Posted

It's such an interesting premise to me that Falvey is the one who might choose to terminate his time with the Twins when Joe Pohlad made it clear last year Falvey was on the hot seat. https://www.startribune.com/joe-pohlad-feeling-urgency-as-minnesota-twins-falter-jim-souhan/600288463 As of right now, it appears ownership has chosen a wait and see approach for a GM who will have made the playoffs 4 times in 8 years, with one playoff series win and the 2nd highest budget of any team in the least competitive division in baseball over that time span.

Falvey hasn't developed proven elite talent at the MLB level. Not a single All Star has come from Falvey's drafting and development in 8 years on the job. Around here, it seems he's often viewed as some sort of celebrity king-maker because the Twins are a pretty nice employer https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/twins-front-office-ranked-eighth-best-in-baseball-in-athletic-poll when they're not conspiring to with other teams to win more championship belts for beating their players down in arbitration https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/ or angering the faces of their franchise like Buxton and Berrios in 2021, and probably Royce Lewis this year.

My viewpoint coming into 2024 was Falvey was being challenged to put together a team without the ownership group bailing him out by extending payroll as they'd done late in the offseason in back to back years for Correa. It wasn't my favorite decision, but $130MM was enough if Falvey handled the budget well and made the right, but tough, decisions. Instead, Falvey failed to address any pressing need the Twins had. He gets an F from me for the offseason. When it came to the trade deadline, ownership gets the F, Falvey gets a D. It's Falvey's job to improve the team, and press for a World Series with the resources he does have. That includes the farm system. If the budget wasn't there, the farm system was. Falvey got conservative. Maybe ownership chose to hamstring Falvey in trading assets as well because of Falvey's potential lame-duck status? I could see that happening, in which case, I do think Falvey might test the waters elsewhere.

Posted
1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Detroit is a fascinating story.  They really came out of nowhere.  Addition via subtraction.

At this point I believe the Twins are more likely to finish ahead of KC than Detroit, as the Tigers get to wrap up the season against the White Sox.  KC is pretty much in a free fall just like the Twins, and they have to finish with a 6 game road trip.  I don't really like the odds for the Twins to finish ahead of either team in the wildcard race though.

And yes, to echo Chief, Puk would have made all the difference this year.

I honestly stopped looking at the schedule in an attempt to figure out who has the best chances. 

Been watching Septembers for decades and I see absolutely no evidence that wishing for certain matchups matters at all. Baseball has never been that cut and dried. 

It's September 20th. (My birthday today BTW). Everything that has happened from September 19th and prior  no longer matters. The Tigers going 26-10 since August 11th has no effect on what will happen today and tomorrow. The Twins going 10-20 since August 18th does not effect what will happen today and tomorrow. 

Today is a new day. The Past is the Past.

The next 9 games will decide this thing and then the buzzer goes off. 

Every year... I've asked for baseball to matter in September. Boy Oh Boy... Does it matter this year. 😎

Posted

The Twins waived the white flag on meaningful contention when they refused to replace Sonny Gray last winter. I know everybody is upset right now, but really, most of us knew the best case scenario was grabbing a meaningless playoff spot only to likely get walloped early.

Honestly, if people want organizational changes next year, there's a better chance of that if the team collapses and misses the playoffs. A token playoff appearance means less pressure on the Pohlad's to spend, less pressure on St. Peter to do a fan-friendly TV deal, less pressure to overhaul the roster and less pressure to replace this site's whipping boy manager. Getting Swept by the Astros in the first round would just be status quo for this club, which means full speed ahead with the current game plan.

Posted
21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins waived the white flag on meaningful contention when they refused to replace Sonny Gray last winter. I know everybody is upset right now, but really, most of us knew the best case scenario was grabbing a meaningless playoff spot only to likely get walloped early.

Honestly, if people want organizational changes next year, there's a better chance of that if the team collapses and misses the playoffs. A token playoff appearance means less pressure on the Pohlad's to spend, less pressure on St. Peter to do a fan-friendly TV deal, less pressure to overhaul the roster and less pressure to replace this site's whipping boy manager. Getting Swept by the Astros in the first round would just be status quo for this club, which means full speed ahead with the current game plan.

I understand that an L is an L. 

However, the Twins just played 4 games against Cleveland. Every game was inches apart. Runs were 13 a piece for the 4 game series. 

Again... I understand that an L is an L. The games didn't turn out the way we wanted or needed but it's not like the Twins were not inches from any of those games. 

These were extremely tense nail biting games where nobody in Minnesota or Ohio felt comfortable for 38 innings and you are saying that they are going to get swept by the Astros anyway. A team that has 3 more wins than the Twins have over 153 games out of 162. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

.. A.J. Puk would have been near the top of my shopping list but I can't judge what players Miami liked and didn't like. We can look at what Miami got from Arizona and say Minnesota could have topped that. It sure looks like they could have but what if Miami really really really really liked De Los Santos and Pintar. I have no way of knowing how Miami felt about players... other than assume they liked those guys because they acquired them.  

There have to be limits because you are not going to give up Jenkins for a rental bullpen guy. That's an extreme example obviously but there has to be limits to what you will give up and I have to assume that it's possible that Miami was asking for more from Minnesota than they asked from Arizona because they liked the players Arizona was willing to part with.  

For a long time I've been scouting MIA's pitching (before the deal with Lopez) because they seemed to be great trading partners. Puk did a great job for MIA last season even closed before Tanner Scott came on the scene. MIA's Puk for SP experiment failed, knowing Puk was still a great RP, I put in a trade offer on June 18 through BTV- Puk 1.5 for Cossetti 1.9. On July 6, Puk's value raised to 8.0, I offered Gonzales 11.0 (he was worth the overpay). On July 24 I made another offer Pukk 8.2 for Gonzales 8.0.

Here's AZ trade https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/172310  on July 25th. It was a very reasonable deadline trade. MIA was wanting young MLB or MLB ready catcher or SS during the offseason. As the season progressed they made an about face & pivoted towards any promising prospects.

Posted
19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Strong disagree. I'd have even more teams in the playoffs. The goal is for as many fans in as many cities to still care about MLB in September, not to have only 4 cities in each league care. IMO, of course.

I just don't get this argument.

Why the hell would you want more teams? In my ideal scenario they'd add two teams, go to 8x4 team divisions and get rid of Wild Cards completely. Why we trying to reward teams for finishing 3rd in their own division? Force teams to strive for greatness, and not be content with mediocrity like the Twins. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I just don't get this argument.

Why the hell would you want more teams? In my ideal scenario they'd add two teams, go to 8x4 team divisions and get rid of Wild Cards completely. Why we trying to reward teams for finishing 3rd in their own division? Force teams to strive for greatness, and not be content with mediocrity like the Twins. 

Considering that in most years, the weakest division winners are usually worse than the teams that are 3rd and 4th in the top divisions, you'd actually be keeping the better teams out of the playoffs.

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