Justin Topa, Zebby Matthews, and the Twins' Pitching Depth, Should They Need It

[Eric Blonigen]

Derek Falvey was hired, in part, for his expertise in building a pitching staff. Several years in, there have been a number of success stories. However, in a season in which your fourth, fifth, and sixth starters and three of your top five bullpen arms are knocked out of the equation in relatively short order, your developmental bona fides are put to the test. What options are available to Falvey on the farm, should the team need more arms?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 season has not played out as expected from a roster standpoint. Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Anthony DeSclafani were expected to fill the fourth and fifth starter's roles. Injuries and ineffectiveness have thwarted those plans, which has led to the first layer of depth being called up to the big-league club. Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa are now key components to the Twins’ success.

In the bullpen, the team was counting on Justin Topa and Daniel Duarte as dependable medium-leverage arms. Topa has yet to throw a pitch for the parent club, and Duarte underwent elbow surgery in May. Jhoan Durán and Brock Stewart have both spent time on the shelf, and even when nominally healthy, each has looked more vulnerable than in the past. Caleb Thielbar has been largely ineffective. Those factors have forced some creativity to build out the bullpen. Who’s left on the farm to answer the call, should more guys get injured? Let’s take a look at some pitching options.

As the Twins have a bit of a 40-man crunch, let’s start with the players who are on the 40-man roster, but not on the active roster or the IL.

Pitchers
Matt Canterino
Brent Headrick
Ronny Henriquez
Josh Winder
Louie Varland

This group is going to be the majority of the injury-replacement talent pool for the Twins this season. The Twins are famous for not wanting to lose assets unnecessarily, so if they don’t have to make 40-man moves, they probably won’t.

There are also several players currently on the injured list who could return at some point this season. These guys could also be the next man up in some cases.

On the MLB Injured List
Brock Stewart - 15-day IL
Kody Funderburk - 15-day IL
Chris Paddack - 15-day IL

This group comprises high-upside arms who have already made important contributions to the team's success in the last season and a half, but their returns are not guaranteed. Funderburk is rehabbing an oblique strain and is a late-season candidate to return. He has shown inconsistent promise throughout his Twins tenure. Stewart is dominant, when healthy. He received an MRI and is awaiting results on his injured shoulder. Rocco Baldelli said he’s not “committing to Stewart’s season being over”, which can’t be a good sign. Chris Paddack “expects to pitch again in 2024,” but has no ETA, and at this time of year, that means that his expectations might go unrealized. He's owed $7.5 million next season, and has been very good when fully healthy. With the Twins' payroll constraints, Paddack either needs to be reliable and healthy, or not be on their books. There are no certainties with any of these pitchers, but the team will be better for each that is able to return.

Other
Steven Okert (Bereavement list)

Now that we have established the 40-man and injured list options for activation, let’s look at the current depth chart at the major-league level and the possibilities for next man up at each position.

Starting Pitching
Current: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa
Next up: Zebby Matthews, Randy Dobnak

The prospect vs the feel-good return: Matthews has as much helium as any pitcher in the Twins organization. Starting the year at Cedar Rapids, he now has two starts under his belt with the Saints. The first was great. The second… was not great. He’s known for his excellent control, and his velo has ticked up into plus-plus territory. A legitimate, consensus top-100 prospect, Matthews is an organizational success story. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2022 Draft, he fits the Falvey mold of drafting tall college starters from small schools, then working on biomechanics to improve their stuff. Matthews now touches 99 MPH on his heater, and has playoff-caliber starter upside. While he will benefit from more seasoning in the minors, the Twins could choose to start his clock early in a pinch, as his stuff/command combination is drool-worthy.

On the other hand, Randy Dobnak has faced a lengthy attempt to return to the majors after twice requiring pulley surgery on his finger. His stuff is… fine. His command is… so-so. His facial hair is fierce, he’s (probably) a really good driver, and you have to root for a guy with a story like his. Supposed to be a really good dude, too.

The most likely scenario here would be that, in the event of an injury to an established starter, Dobnak would take over the fifth starter spot--unless the Twins decide that every win counts. Then, perhaps, they could convince themselves to cut bait with a marginal pitcher on the 40-man in favor of adding Matthews.

High-Leverage Relief Pitchers
Current: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcalá
Next up: Louie Varland, then…let's get weird

Last season, when Varland moved to the bullpen, his stuff played up, and he was dominant for an inning at a time. Because he has been ineffective as a starter this season, it may be time to consider converting him to relief work permanently. Festa and Matthews have passed him on the depth chart, and if Varland has the ability to be a late-inning reliever, he could be a difference-maker for the club as they seek to lock down a playoff spot. Beyond him, there aren’t great high-leverage options in the system, unless the front office wanted to get very aggressive with a rehabbing Matt Canterino or Connor Prielipp--which seems unlikely, given their health concerns and relative inexperience as pros.

Medium-Leverage Relief Pitchers
Current: Cole Sands, Trevor Richards
Next up: Justin Topa, then…Matt Bowman?

Luckily, Topa is nearly ready to return, assuming he doesn’t experience any setbacks on his rehab assignment. While he doesn’t have a lengthy track record at the major-league level, he was lights-out for the Mariners last season. The hope is he can pitch at the same level for the Twins upon his return. Whether or not this is likely remains to be seen, but he is the best option for a medium-leverage arm at this point. After him, the Twins could look to add Saints pitchers to the 40-man, such as Matt Bowman.

Bowman is 33, and the definition of a journeyman. He’s pitched in 196 games across six different organizations, and has amassed just 0.4 career fWAR. However, his time with the Saints this season has been great. In 13 appearances (yes, small sample size), Bowman has a WHIP under 1.00 and is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings pitched. Could he give 15 good innings down the stretch if pressed into duty? Maybe. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, though.

Low-Leverage Relief Pitchers
Current: Steven Okert, Caleb Thielbar, Randy Dobnak
Next up: Ronny Henriquez, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick

All three of these next guys up are just guys. All have had multiple chances to stick at the big-league level, and all have failed to impress. Collectively, they have a career fWAR of 0.0 across 55 appearances with the Twins. At this point, they could eat low-leverage innings, but it would be unwise to count on them for anything more than that. I’m not going to list any additional low-leverage options, as my assumption is the Twins won’t burn a 40-man spot on a replacement-level, low-leverage relief pitcher.

Overall, the Twins have graduated several top pitching prospects this season. That has impacted the number of good pitchers in the upper minors to call upon as injury replacements. Because of this, it's more important than ever that the Twins can stay healthy down the stretch; there just aren't guys beating down the door to the majors. 

What do you think? Would these be the next guys up in the event of more injuries? How would you feel about these options, should the unforeseen occur? Are there other players you would call up if you were in the front office? Comment below to start the discussion!

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[Jocko87]

And all of a sudden, Giovanni Gallegos.

Just when you thought you could put post deadline rosters in ink.

[Eric Blonigen]

13 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

And all of a sudden, Giovanni Gallegos.

Just when you thought you could put post deadline rosters in ink.

Huh. Interesting. He’s been brutal this year, but his peripherals are a bit better (still below league average though). I imagine they will see if they can fix something mechanically or work on pitch mix. I’ll put him in the low-leverage option mix for now but maybe we will be surprised.

[mark sills]

How can you not include Andrew Morris. 

[FlyingFinn]

Topa in place of Dobnak this week. Also, regular season, Varland is the next starter up. One of the LH relievers has to be medium leverage and think that will be Thielbar.

[Doctor Gast]

Thielbar has been pretty decent lately. Topa has not been bad in AAA and will hopefully convert to MLB & Sands has been good & can go multiple innings. Varland is darn good 1X through the order, he's our ace in the hole. Jax has been our best RP but Duran has been turning it around, Alcala has been surprisingly good & dependable. If they let the Dobber be Dobber he can be good.  A good core of long relief would go a long way.  Some depth could still be added.

[tony&rodney]

It would take several injuries before Matthews was an option. He is not ready.

[darin617]

Zebby Matthews second start was not terrible if you looked at the box score. He gave up 5 runs in the first inning and then put up 4 innings after that and didn't give up any more runs.  That's a sign of a good pitcher that can work past a bad inning and not let it get to him.

I would prefer to see Zebby stay in St Paul the rest of the year and be in a great position t battle for a starting role in 2025.

 

[USAFChief]

Can we stop referring to "low leverage relievers?"

There's no such thing. 

[DJL44]

Ronny Henriquez is still young and improving. He might end up working out.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

If they let the Dobber be Dobber he can be good.

If you mean “let him be a minor league pitcher”…you’re right (kinda).

If you mean a major league pitcher, the evidence is overwhelming that he can NOT be good…over any meaningful number of innings…in any role.

[mikelink45]

I'm delighted to see this list at various levels. Dobnak is not available option for a team that wants to be in the playoffs. Okert has shown me nothing this year and would be an easy cut. We have to hope that they can bring some new arms up. Weather is converting a starter or going with one of our relief pitchers that are in the minors. I fear burning out the bullpen and they are essential to postseason. 

[USAFChief]

Where would AJ Puk fall on this list?

[jkcarew]

“Dobnak would take over the fifth starter spot--unless the Twins decide that every win counts.”
 

Cudos, Mr. Blonigen! This might be the single best sentence in the history of TD writing.

[Eric Blonigen]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Can we stop referring to "low leverage relievers?"

There's no such thing. 

Out of curiosity, is it the term you disagree with? Or the application of it as a catch-all to describe someone’s skill level or trustworthiness? Or do you think the bullpen hierarchy is fluid to the point that it’s not useful to categorize relievers?

Referring to a pitcher as a low-leverage guy in my mind is a widely-accepted shorthand for someone that doesn’t possess the skill set, mindset, track record, or health to be a late-and-close pitcher.

I’m interested in your take on it though.

[Eric Blonigen]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Where would AJ Puk fall on this list?

Personally, medium leverage. He has an inflated ERA but that’s likely due to having really low strand rate. He’s got good stuff, but he’s walked too many guys this season. If he can get that under control, he’s set.

[Eric Blonigen]

10 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

“Dobnak would take over the fifth starter spot--unless the Twins decide that every win counts.”
 

Cudos, Mr. Blonigen! This might be the single best sentence in the history of TD writing.

I appreciate that!

[Eric Blonigen]

3 hours ago, mark sills said:

How can you not include Andrew Morris. 

Don’t get me wrong, he’s been great, but he hasn’t tasted AAA yet and has just 11 starts at Wichita. Personally, I can’t see a scenario where he would get the call. So many guys would need to be injured for that to happen this season, and at that point, the season is over anyway.

I do think he has a real chance to be a solid starter for the Twins at some point, but I think 2025 is the earliest that could happen.

[USAFChief]

28 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Out of curiosity, is it the term you disagree with? Or the application of it as a catch-all to describe someone’s skill level or trustworthiness? Or do you think the bullpen hierarchy is fluid to the point that it’s not useful to categorize relievers?

Referring to a pitcher as a low-leverage guy in my mind is a widely-accepted shorthand for someone that doesn’t possess the skill set, mindset, track record, or health to be a late-and-close pitcher.

I’m interested in your take on it though.

Its not accurate.

Every pitcher in a modern bullpen will pitch in situations where their performance will impact the outcome. Multiple times over a season. 

Starters average less than 6 IP per start. Teams get 10 or more outs on average from the pen every night. Most games are close. Relievers can't pitch every night. You're going to use all of them.

So, every reliever will pitch in situations where they impact the outcome. 

Randy Dobnak entered a 2 run game in the 6th tonight. That's not low leverage, IYAM. 

Similar situations occur regularly.

You can't get by with 3 guys who pitch every time the game is close.

They all will. Some more than others, but they all will.

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Personally, medium leverage. He has an inflated ERA but that’s likely due to having really low strand rate. He’s got good stuff, but he’s walked too many guys this season. If he can get that under control, he’s set.

Are you aware Miami had him start four games in April?

Check his stats as a reliever. 

[Eric Blonigen]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Are you aware Miami had him start four games in April?

Check his stats as a reliever. 

Ok, great point. Admittedly I looked at his full season stats, not his starter/reliever splits. He would totally slot in in the late innings along Duran and Jax.

[twinstalker]

I sincerely, SINCERELY, hope the Twins were not counting on Daniel Duarte, as the article says.  I already struggle with my feelings about Falvine.

I am in the camp where I'd rather shut Zebby down soon than pitch him in meaningful MLB games this year.  I think he needs to rest, regroup rather than be under intense pressure at the MLB-race level having thrown more innings than ever before.

If your team isn't going to spend to bring in talent, you have to truly treat the up and coming talent with kid gloves.

On that note, Dobnak doesn't look great, and the Twins might have to resort to bullpen games or plan for Varland bulk work.  SWR losing it the last couple of games is a worry we'll learn more about.  I don't think the Twins are in a great spot.  Getting Flaherty would have been huge.

[Doctor Wu]

Chris Paddack “expects to pitch again in 2024,” but has no ETA

Hmm... that sentence sounds ominous. He is on the 15 day IL now, but still no idea when, or if, he will pitch this season? Sounds like someone we can't count on for the rest of the season. 

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Where would AJ Puk fall on this list?

Puk was my top choice of a guy that it seemed like the Twins should go after in July. It didn't happen and I was a little disappointed but also think it is like spilt milk - one just moves on. Thielbar and others will need to step forward. It's what we got.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Chris Paddack “expects to pitch again in 2024,” but has no ETA

Hmm... that sentence sounds ominous. He is on the 15 day IL now, but still no idea when, or if, he will pitch this season? Sounds like someone we can't count on for the rest of the season. 

Another pitcher with arm issues that the Twins think they can fix and keep healthy, only to watch them *shockingly* get injured again.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

If you mean “let him be a minor league pitcher”…you’re right (kinda).

If you mean a major league pitcher, the evidence is overwhelming that he can NOT be good…over any meaningful number of innings…in any role.

One thing that is preached to hitters is to get the ball off the ground. The old Dobber had one of the best groundball (GB) % in the MLB with good control, & a low HR rate. He had a good record & FIP. But GB pitchers are not sexy. In '21, Dobber found a new slider to compliment his other pitches & he dominated spring training. That is evidence. But the Twins wanted to transform Dobber into a SO pitcher by throwing that pitch the majority of the time screwing up his control & finger. That experiment was a total failure, that is evident & like with most failed experiments, they keep doubling down.

Now the healed Dobber can get MiLBer to swing at that slider but MLBer won't bite. The Dobber can still be a good MLB pitcher but he needs to be the old Dobber & use that new slider only in key situations for that pitch to be effective. The new Dobber isn't a MLBer but the old modified one is. IMO that is evident.

 

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

One thing that is preached to hitters is to get the ball off the ground. The old Dobber had one of the best groundball (GB) % in the MLB with good control, & a low HR rate. He had a good record & FIP. But GB pitchers are not sexy. In '21, Dobber found a new slider to compliment his other pitches & he dominated spring training. That is evidence. But the Twins wanted to transform Dobber into a SO pitcher by throwing that pitch the majority of the time screwing up his control & finger. That experiment was a total failure, that is evident & like with most failed experiments, they keep doubling down.

Now the healed Dobber can get MiLBer to swing at that slider but MLBer won't bite. The Dobber can still be a good MLB pitcher but he needs to be the old Dobber & use that new slider only in key situations for that pitch to be effective. The new Dobber isn't a MLBer but the old modified one is. IMO that is evident.

 

I don't think the Twins wanted to transform Dobnak as much as Dobnak wanted to transform himself into a legitimate MLB rotation arm. He has permanent ligament damage to his middle finger, and it will never heal back to where it was prior to the rupture so he needed to make changes. Based on his results, and his lack of command, it seems like he's not quite there yet. He probably looks a lot better if Buxton was playing CF last night, but even under advanced metrics, he's been borderline serviceable.

The slider and changeup are almost identical, and that kind of reduces Dobnak to a 2 pitch pitcher. To compound that, the sinker has the same movement profile as the changeup so hitters know what direction all his pitches are going to move, just not exactly how much they'll move.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Personally, medium leverage. He has an inflated ERA but that’s likely due to having really low strand rate. He’s got good stuff, but he’s walked too many guys this season. If he can get that under control, he’s set.

I’m not sure if “really low strand rate” means he isn’t very good at stranding runners or he doesn’t allow many inherited runners to score? In either case, pretty sure that “strands” relate to inherited baserunners - right? Strand rate wouldn’t have anything to do with his ERA if they were on base when he entered the game.

Puk’s ERA is inflated due to a few starts he made and was really bad in - not many innings and a bunch of runs. He moved back to relief and flourished.

[JD-TWINS]

RYAN HURT - not cool!

Dobnak can’t pitch effectively at MLB level.

Varland starts Friday along with Ober in the doubleheader. Will need another guy on Tuesday as nobody will be rested & ready. Matthews?? 22 hits in 14 innings in St. Paul - no walks - he may need to break his “all strikes” pattern to be effective at higher levels?

Henriquez &/or Topa for Dobnak ASAP!

Richards didn’t ingratiate himself to anyone after coming in for Ryan today.

[mark sills]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

RYAN HURT - not cool!

Dobnak can’t pitch effectively at MLB level.

Varland starts Friday along with Ober in the doubleheader. Will need another guy on Tuesday as nobody will be rested & ready. Matthews?? 22 hits in 14 innings in St. Paul - no walks - he may need to break his “all strikes” pattern to be effective at higher levels?

Henriquez &/or Topa for Dobnak ASAP!

Richards didn’t ingratiate himself to anyone after coming in for Ryan today.

Andrew Morris is on the same schedule pitch day.