Week in Review: Getting Fat

[Nick Nelson]

In what was likely the easiest week they'll encounter on their entire schedule, the Twins welcomed two of the worst teams in baseball to Target Field and they more than took care of business, showcasing their new threads and some red-hot bats while winning six of seven.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/10 through Sun, 6/16
***
Record Last Week: 6-1 (Overall: 40-32)
Run Differential Last Week: +22 (Overall: +16)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 66 | MIN 5, COL 0: Paddack Throws Fire, Lewis Homers to Seal Win
Game 67 | COL 5, MIN 4: Comeback Falls Short After Thielbar Meltdown
Game 68 | MIN 17, COL 9: Bats Go Bananas in Series-Clinching Slugfest
Game 69 | MIN 6, OAK 2: Correa's Hot Bat Powers Twins to Victory
Game 70 | MIN 6, OAK 5: Kepler's Big Game Culminates in Walk-Off
Game 71 | MIN 6, OAK 2: Correa and Lewis Fuel Fourth Straight Win
Game 72 | MIN 8, OAK 7: Twins Fend Off Pesky A's to Lock Up Sweep

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

Following in the footsteps of Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff was demoted to Triple-A last week, subtracting another key left-handed bat from Minnesota's offensive mix. It was hard to argue against the demotion on merit, as Kirilloff has looked ineffective at the plate for a vast majority of the season, while offering no positive value on defense. 

Kirilloff is hardly one to wear his emotions on his sleeve, but to me his mounting frustration seemed evident. There's been nothing free and easy about his game. Hopefully a reset of his own at Triple-A can rejuvenate Kirilloff's confidence and swing. In the meantime, Austin Martin has returned to serve as a dynamic bench weapon and part-time player. 

Louie Varland also made it back across the river this past week – twice in fact. He made a spot start on Tuesday to give the rotation a break, and took advantage of the opportunity with five shutout innings. Varland shuttled back to the minors after the start, but returned as the extra man for Sunday's doubleheader, pitching long relief in the nightcap and helping bridge to the late relievers in a sweep-clinching win. Varland will now go back to Triple-A, but definitely with an added level of faith from the Twins.

Curiously, it was Jay Jackson recalled to fill the new roster vacancy, after spending a few weeks outside of the active and 40-man rosters. His reinstatement meant a DFA for fellow fringe reliever Diego Castillo, who showed little control or ability to miss bats. Castillo elected free agency on Sunday.

HIGHLIGHTS

Soft competition or not, the Twins are a team you can't help but believe in when Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are healthy and clicking. Right now that is very much the case.

Lewis finds himself on an eight-game hitting streak after going 10-for-24 with four more home runs, extending his remarkable power-hitting rampage since coming off the injured list. He got Friday night off as a matter of maintenance, but started all six other games, including each end of Sunday's doubleheader (homering in both, naturally). That seems like a great sign for his physical state, and his swing is clearly healthy as could be. Lewis struck out once in 27 plate appearances the past week and has only six total strikeouts in 12 games. Meanwhile, he's slugging a cool .951. Simply unreal.

 

Correa posted his first career five-hit game on Wednesday, part of a spectacular week that saw him notch 17 knocks in 31 at-bats. He found his power stroke in a big way, launching three home runs after entering the week with five on the season. Correa is batting .431 in the month of June, with 16 RBIs in 14 games. He's potentially putting himself in position for All-Star consideration, although competition at shortstop is stiff. Contrary to what you might've heard, standards have most definitely been met.

 

Seeing Lewis and Correa excel to this degree is delightful, but not entirely surprising. We know who they are when healthy. That's been less clear lately for Buxton, who's struggled to find his footing offensively in the first half. This past week he showed real signs of getting on track, putting together his best stretch of the season so far at the plate. 

Buxton tallied eight hits in 19 at-bats with a home run, a triple and six RBIs. Most encouraging: he drew two walks and struck out only twice all week. For much of the first two months, Buxton looked like he was struggling to catch up, but now he's flashing a bit more quickness and connecting on his pitches. Obviously it's a very small sample against largely sub-par pitching, and Buck needs to prove he can avoid lapsing back into a strikeout-filled slump, but his rise is very much worth keeping an eye on. If he's tilting back toward his prime form with the bat, that's a major game-changer for the Twins lineup.

Some other highlights in an overpowering week that saw the offense produce 52 runs on 88 hits (14 homers) in seven games:

• Max Kepler snapped his slump in a big way on Friday night, producing one of the biggest individual performances of the season as the team debuted their blue-and-yellow City Connect uniforms in front of a packed house at Target Field. Kepler gave them a good show: he delivered a game-tying three-run homer, then survived a 99-MPH fastball to the elbow, staying in the game to later come through with a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth. His OPS jumped nearly 40 points (.721 to .759) from this game alone. 
• Carlos Santana continues to beat the "cooked" allegations in a big way. He's become a legit run-producer in the lineup, driving in nine runs in his seven games last week with two homers and two doubles. Santana's been raking for over a month now, putting a slow start firmly in the rearview mirror and – in doing so – changing the narrative a bit regarding the front office's offseason moves. (On that note, Manuel Margot also had a very solid week, contributing four hits and three walks in a growing role.)
• If you've been waiting for Willi Castro to come back down to Earth ... you're gonna have to keep waiting. He just keeps on coming through and last week was no different, with the free-swinging utility man going 10-for-29 with eight runs scored (and another HBP, naturally). Castro has truly embodied the everyday multi-positional role, leading the team in games played while factoring in at five positions at least semi-regularly. 

Even Christian Vázquez has started to find some power (three doubles and three RBIs last week), helping offset the ongoing lull from Ryan Jeffers. José Miranda is making himself an essential cog in the lineup; he went 6-for-17 and came through with the game-winning home run in Sunday's doubleheader nightcap. 

Yeah, the Twins hitters were doing all this damage against some generally poor pitching and low-grade opponents. But the numbers count, and they matter. The Twins might be getting fat off soft competition, but to overly stretch that metaphor, the layers of fat gained now can serve as warmth and sustenance in the event of upcoming dry spells. Or something. Basically what I'm saying it's good to get yourself elevated up over the .500 mark, however you can do it, and now the Twins find themselves back eight games in the black.

LOWLIGHTS

It wasn't all rays of Minnesota sunlight for the Twins, and specifically their pitching staff. Pablo López delivered another underwhelming outing on Wednesday, lasting only five innings against the Rockies, then handed the ball to a bullpen that flirted with blowing a six-run lead before the offense pulled away. Simeon Woods Richardson gave up a first-inning grand slam to Oakland on Friday and lasted only four innings. 

Chris Paddack is a perplexing case. He looked about as good as we've seen him in his first start of the week, shutting out the Rockies over 6 ⅓ innings, and then looked about as bad as we've seen him in his second start on Sunday night, coughing up five earned runs in 2 ⅓ against a poor A's lineup. I continue to wonder if the Twins will find a way to get Paddack a break at some point this summer, as he advances toward a 170+ IP pace. We'll see. Varland's strong showing could play a role in setting that up.

In the bullpen, Jhoan Durán keeps getting the job done despite – I would argue – relying on smoke and mirrors. He didn't give up a hit in his 2 ⅓ innings over three appearances, and converted his eighth consecutive save, but Durán's stuff is noticeably down and his K-rate has plummeted. (He struck out just one of 10 batters faced last week, with two walks, and has a 10-to-8 K/BB ratio over his past 16 innings.) Unless the big righty can rediscover his dominant edge and start missing more bats, it feels like only a matter of time before all of the increased contact catches up with him. 

 

Much as it pains me to say it, Caleb Thielbar appears to not have it anymore at age 37. Dating back to last year, he's had a tough time staying healthy and the execution on his pitches has been lacking. Hitters are taking advantage. Since the start of 2023, including the playoffs, Thielbar has surrendered 12 home runs in 49 ⅔ innings, often in very damaging situations for the team. 

That was the case on Tuesday, when Thielbar was charged with four earned runs while recording zero outs in an eventual 5-4 loss to Colorado. Rocco Baldelli ran him back out there the next day to try and salvage some confidence with a big lead, but Thielbar was again unable to get a single batter out, allowing three runs (one earned) on a hit and two walks. In total, the left-hander gave up five earned runs without getting an out in his two appearances, lifting his ERA from 5.17 to 8.04 on the season.

 

It's truly sad to see from a local guy whose baseball journey has been one for the storybooks. I'll never forget some of Thielbar's best moments in a Twins uniform, but the team can't let sentiment get in the way of decision-making, and you have to wonder how long they can reasonably keep sticking with him. Kody Funderburk is a pretty clearly superior option at Triple-A. 

I would guess that an IL stint is more likely than a DFA for Thielbar, who is the highest-paid pitcher in the bullpen at more than $3 million. Maybe his hamstring still isn't fully right? Even if the 37-year-old has degraded skill-wise, what we saw this past week was beyond the pale.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Down at Triple-A, Matt Wallner is rather loudly making his case for a return to the big leagues. The demoted outfielder has been on an absolute tear following a slow start in Triple-A, notching a pair of four-hit games over the past week and boasting a .397 average with nine home runs in 14 games this month. Wallner's success at the plate has been underpinned by huge improvements in discipline, which was a severe weakness for him in the early part of the season.

 

As the Twins transition back into some tougher competition and aim to chip away at their division deficit, they're going to want to put their best foot forward, and it sure looks like the optimal version of this lineup should feature Wallner's bat against right-handed pitchers. The question is when and how an opportunity will open up for him.

I was a little surprised to see the Twins pick Martin over Wallner as Kirilloff's replacement on the roster, given that Martin seems to offer a fair amount of redundancy with Margot as a righty-swinging outfield bat. But Martin has looked good, and it seems unlikely the Twins will reverse course on their decision too quickly. 

For now, Wallner may simply have to wait his turn, even as he continues to utterly obliterate minor-league pitching. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The homestand continues following a day off on Monday, with the Tampa Bay Rays arriving in town on Tuesday for a three-game set. These aren't your typical Rays: they are in last place in the East, four games below .500, and have uncharacteristically not pitched very well, but this is a team that always battles the Twins hard. Following that series, the Twins head to Oakland for a rematch against the Athletics team they just swept at home. With their stars currently shining bright, there's no reason to think the Twins and their offense can't keep the good times rolling and keep fattening up as we approach the season's midpoint.

TUESDAY, JUNE 18: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Civale v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, JUNE 20: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Littell v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
FRIDAY, JUNE 21: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Joey Estes
SATURDAY, JUNE 22: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP JP Sears
SUNDAY, JUNE 23: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Hogan Harris

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[bean5302]

The Twins have picked up 2 games on Cleveland and 3 games on Kansas City over their past 10 games, and we're 3 games up on the Boston Red Sox who just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees. Toronto, and Washington are 0.5 games back from .500 as well. We're on pace for a 90 win season atm.

Will the lamenting end about how the Twins should be sellers, and about how the Twins can't beat good teams now having split or won series' against Seattle (division leader), Milwaukee (division leader), Kansas City (wildcard), Boston (.514), and 2 other teams who are under .500 only because of the Twins?

[Peter]

I’ll take a 5-2/6-1 week. You have to beat the teams below you and that’s what twins have done. They’ve taken series against Boston/seattle/kansas city with winning records and won against Toronto/Washington who are playing much better and under .500 because of series wins against them. It’s not about winning every game it’s winning series. Go Twins!!!

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Will the lamenting end about how the Twins should be sellers, and about how the Twins can't beat good teams now having split or won series' against Seattle (division leader), Milwaukee (division leader), Kansas City (wildcard), Boston (.514), and 2 other teams who are under .500 only because of the Twins?

The lamentation will not stop. 

You forgot to add my favorite.

Just gonna lose in the playoffs anyway.

[bighat]

We will take it, great to see a week like this. Correa is absolutely on fire, so is Lewis. 

It would be nice to see the Twins have another week like this. Tampa and Oakland (again) should produce an over .500 week. 

[Mortimerkenny21]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

We're on pace for a 90 win season atm.

It took the Twins until June 26th to get to 40 wins last year, a few days later they were 40-42. They Pulled off 87 W's last year. I would say if we can keep getting fat off the bottom feeders and taking some series against competitive teams there is no reason we shouldn't be at 87 to 92 wins for the year. Hopefully we have a strong team come Oct!

[LambchoP]

Twins bats looking good. Think it's finally time to trim the fat off this team and replace them with someone better. Farmer, Margot and Theilbar all need to go, plus they all have solid replacements ready to go. Lee or Julien for Farmer. Wallner for Margot. Funderburk or deadline acquisition for the cooked Theilbar.

[stringer bell]

A note on Willi Castro. If he starts Tuesday at second base (likely), he will have started at least 10 games in five different positions (LF, CF, 3B, SS, 2B), in 73 games. I don't know if another player has done that in a whole season and I don't think another Twin has, although Cesar Tovar played all over. 

[Doctor Gast]

In our recent tear we have gained a little against CLE. We'll gain a little more ground in our next 2 series before hit a little more completion with AZ & more yet with a hotter SEA, that'll be a good test. I like where we sit.

[mikegtc33]

I mentioned this on X, but didn't get any traction or reaction.

I don't think Thielbar is done. I think he badly needs another pitch or the threat of another pitch along with better execution.

It seems like his most dominate seasons came when he had what fangraphs calls a changeup or splitter even though he barely threw them. 2 changes in 2021 and 11 splitters in 2022. During his routine season, he was last out in the second half of the season.

[jorgenswest]

12 hours ago, stringer bell said:

A note on Willi Castro. If he starts Tuesday at second base (likely), he will have started at least 10 games in five different positions (LF, CF, 3B, SS, 2B), in 73 games. I don't know if another player has done that in a whole season and I don't think another Twin has, although Cesar Tovar played all over. 

In 1968 Cesar Tovar started 10 games at the same positions that Castro has played. He also played 11 games in right field while starting 8 and was the starting pitcher in the game he played all 9 positions.

[ApprenticeOfLayton]

Great opportunity to gain ground with the softer schedule, and if there's anything you feel good about with this team it's that they have thoroughly beaten the teams you're supposed to beat. If we can keep up this pace in June while KC and Cleveland smack each other around for a bit, this division is far from lost.

If you had told me we'd start 7-13,  have an 0-5 mark against the Guardians, lose Royce for two months, and have to send Wallner and Julien to AAA, I never would have expected to still be within striking distance of a division lead, especially not this soon. We've weathered our worst storms and played our worst ball, and despite it all we're still a playoff team. Find another starter however we can and make it to October however we can and there's no reason it can't be us.

(sees our record against the top 3 AL teams) .........well, then again everyone's a work in progress! I'm trying to talk myself into having hope, though. Baseball, as with life, is a lot more fun that way.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, mikegtc33 said:

I mentioned this on X, but didn't get any traction or reaction.

I don't think Thielbar is done. I think he badly needs another pitch or the threat of another pitch along with better execution.

It seems like his most dominate seasons came when he had what fangraphs calls a changeup or splitter even though he barely threw them. 2 changes in 2021 and 11 splitters in 2022. During his routine season, he was last out in the second half of the season.

2 and 11 pitches over 64 and 59.1 innings sure seem like things that don't really matter at all. He's essentially been a 3 pitch pitcher since 2020. If he needs a 4th pitch at the age of 37 to be effective he's probably not going to be effective anymore.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, mikegtc33 said:

I mentioned this on X, but didn't get any traction or reaction.

I don't think Thielbar is done. I think he badly needs another pitch or the threat of another pitch along with better execution.

It seems like his most dominate seasons came when he had what fangraphs calls a changeup or splitter even though he barely threw them. 2 changes in 2021 and 11 splitters in 2022. During his routine season, he was last out in the second half of the season.

He's 37. Doubt he's adding a pitch at this point. 

[mikegtc33]

But, technically even based off an April 30th article on here, he wouldn't need to "learn" anything, just bring back the slider he had. Fastball, sweeper, slider, curve may help. I think it was the Rockies game... It was basically fastball, curve, fastball, curve or fastball, sweeper, fastball sweeper.

I'm not saying 2 or 11 is a lot but I figure occasionally throwing it could help if you know you're getting either 94 or 74mph every pitch 

[KirbyDome89]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins have picked up 2 games on Cleveland and 3 games on Kansas City over their past 10 games, and we're 3 games up on the Boston Red Sox who just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees. Toronto, and Washington are 0.5 games back from .500 as well. We're on pace for a 90 win season atm.

Will the lamenting end about how the Twins should be sellers, and about how the Twins can't beat good teams now having split or won series' against Seattle (division leader), Milwaukee (division leader), Kansas City (wildcard), Boston (.514), and 2 other teams who are under .500 only because of the Twins?

Picking up games is the important part. They were on pace to finish with a worse record than last season less than 10 days ago following the debacles in NY and Pittsburgh. 

If this team is selling at the deadline then they need to clear house on the executive side. Idk why anybody would be pushing for them to be sellers; they're supposed to be winning games right now. 

Did you feel this strongly about the Twins' ability to beat good teams before Colorado came to town? I'm asking honestly. Splitting a 2 game series with Milwaukee is a weird flex. Boston looks like the 2023 version of the Twins, and I wouldn't have called that squad a good team at any point last year except maybe September. They've played KC well so far, and they took a series from Seattle, otherwise they've gotten the **** kicked out of them by the upper tier teams. To say that other teams are under .500 "only because of the Twins," is a slippery slope. Are the Twins only over .500 because of their sparkling record against the dregs of MLB? 

 

[stringer bell]

5.5 games behind Cleveland and half a game behind KC. I won't say it is getting late early, but I will say that they need to gain ground prior to the end of the month, if they seriously want to win the AL Central. They need to win some games against Cleveland to win the division. 

An interim goal would be to overtake the Royals. It would be much more comfortable to be in the #2 wild card just because one or more of the teams behind the Twins will probably get hot at some point.