Revisiting the Minnesota Twins' Choice: Royce Lewis and the 2017 MLB Draft

[Cody Christie]

It’s been seven years since the Twins took Royce Lewis with the number one overall pick. Let’s look back at the 2017 MLB Draft to see if Minnesota’s front office made the correct choice.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB Draft is an intricate combination of talent evaluation with high stakes that are only magnified when a team has the number one overall pick. In 2017, the Minnesota Twins transitioned to a new front office and were tasked with identifying the best player at the top of the draft. Their choice? Royce Lewis, a dynamic shortstop from JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, California. Three years into his big-league career, it's time to dissect the Twins' decision and assess whether they made the right call amidst the talented pool of prospects available.

Lewis wasn’t the consensus pick at the top of the 2017 MLB Draft. MLB.com’s experts, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis thought the Twins would select Louisville two-way phenom Brendan McKay with the top pick. John Manuel from Baseball America projected the Twins to pick Kyle Wright, the top college pitching prospect from Vanderbilt. ESPN’s Keith Law also had the Twins leaning toward Wright with a caveat that the team was looking at four players, including McKay, and high school pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Hunter Greene. There was a talented group of players for the Twins to pick from, but Lewis wasn’t projected to be the first pick. 

 

Lewis became the top pick because he possessed a compelling blend of tools and intangibles that scouts drool over. His athleticism was evident, with blazing speed, smooth fielding, and a compact swing that pointed to future power potential. Moreover, his makeup and work ethic were lauded, suggesting a player with the drive to maximize his abilities. His positive attitude has been front-and-center throughout his time with the Twins, even when facing setbacks. Lewis was projected as a five-tool player, a rare commodity in baseball, and a potential franchise cornerstone.

Fast-forward to the present, Lewis progressed steadily through the Twins' minor league system while ranking as a consensus top-100 prospect. The top three national prospect rankings all had Lewis in their top 10 overall prospects entering the 2019 season. He fluctuated from there but was a top-50 prospect as he entered his rookie season. However, it's important to acknowledge his hurdles, including injuries and periods of inconsistency, which have tempered some of the initial hype.

Lewis has been electric in his time at the big-league level while impacting the game on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL twice over the last three seasons, significantly hampering his ability to impact the lineup. In 79 career games, he has hit .314/.367/.589 (.956) with a 162 OPS+, 13 doubles, and 22 home runs. His 22 home runs are two more than any other player in Twins/Senators history in his first 80 games. He set the Twins' single-season record with four grand slams in 2023 and helped the club win their first playoff series in two decades. More and more Lewis jerseys are popping up at Target Field as he quickly becomes the face of the franchise. 

However, the Twins' decision is accurately measured not just by Lewis's performance but also by the other players the club passed over. Looking at the players selected after Lewis in the first round offers a comparative lens through which to evaluate their choice.

One notable name drafted immediately after Lewis was Greene, a right-handed pitcher selected by the Cincinnati Reds. Greene dazzled scouts with his electric fastball that touched triple digits and polished secondary offerings. However, injuries have hampered his development, underscoring the inherent risk in investing in high school pitchers. Greene has collected the second most rWAR (5.2) among 2017 first-round picks, trailing only Boston’s Tanner Houck (8.7 rWAR), who was never considered for the top pick. While Greene's potential remains tantalizing, his path has been fraught with uncertainty, a reminder of the pitfalls of the draft.

Another intriguing prospect in the first round was McKay, a two-way player drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays. McKay boasted exceptional skills on the mound and at the plate, a rarity in modern baseball outside Shohei Ohtani. Like Greene, McKay's journey has been hindered by injuries, raising questions about the feasibility of excelling in both roles at the highest level. He has been limited to just 13 career major league appearances and is currently on the injured list in the minor leagues with a flexor/pronator strain and an accompanying UCL sprain. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Clearly, the Twins were correct in passing over McKay. 

Among other notable selections were Gore (San Diego Padres), a left-handed pitcher heralded for his advanced repertoire and polish, and Wright (Atlanta Braves), another promising arm with a potent fastball and promising secondary offerings. Both players have been traded from the team that drafted them. Gore has made 56 big-league appearances with the Padres and Nationals while posting a 4.20 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 25.7 K%. Wright led all of baseball with 21 wins in 2022 and finished in the top-10 for the NL Cy Young. Outside of that season, his big-league time has been limited, including missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. 

In hindsight, the Twins' decision to draft Lewis appears more than justified, especially if he can overcome his lengthy injury history. While Lewis hasn't fully reached the lofty heights envisioned for a number one overall pick, his potential remains tantalizing. The challenges he's faced are not uncommon for young prospects navigating the development pathway associated with big-league players. Moreover, the risks associated with drafting pitchers, as exemplified by the experiences outlined above, underscore the reasons why teams prefer to select a position player with Lewis's skill set.

However, it's essential to acknowledge that the true verdict on the Twins' decision is still pending. Baseball is a game of patience and uncertainty, and the journey from draft day to stardom is fraught with twists and turns. As Royce Lewis continues his development and the players drafted alongside him carve out their paths, only time will tell whether the Twins made the correct pick. But for now, Lewis's promise and potential offer hope to a franchise and fanbase. 

Was Lewis the correct choice? Should the Twins have drafted one of the top available pitchers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Doctor Wu]

I was VERY disappointed that the Twins didn't take a pitcher with that pick in the draft, either one of the college arms or a youngster like Hunter Greene. Hard to pass up a talent like that. But ... despite his injury history thus far, Royce Lewis has shown that he can be a REAL special player, A game changer. In retrospect, I'm certainly happy that the Twins made him the pick. If  he can stay healthy for the next decade, I foresee a perennial all-star. But darn it, I'd still like one of those pitchers!

[Karbo]

If Lewis can stay healthy, it looks like he will be 1 of the top players in baseball. At least in the short time he has played. I would say it was a very successful draft!

[SaberNerd]

Good to look back.  Right now, would definitely want Royce over anyone else in the draft.

For the pitchers, 3 of the 4 have missed a season due to an injury--only Gore has stayed healthy.

[Doctor Wu]

8 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

Good to look back.  Right now, would definitely want Royce over anyone else in the draft.

For the pitchers, 3 of the 4 have missed a season due to an injury--only Gore has stayed healthy.

McKay seems to have become the missing man in that draft. I know that he had TJ surgery (or something close to that) but that was a few years ago. He was in spring training with the Rays this year, but I lost track or where he is pitching in their system, or if he is injured again. He was hyped as a possible 2-way player going into the draft, but that didn't seem to have materialized. 

[TopGunn#22]

I liked the Lewis pick at the time and I still like it now.  To me, he was the SS that I hoped we'd get in the Correa/Buxton draft.  Now, seven years later, he's had a position change, in large part due to us having Correa.  Of course, we need Lewis to stay healthy.  But what I've finally been able to see of him is better than I had actually hoped he'd be when we first picked him.  He's special.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The saying goes that hindsight is 20/20. In hindsight, I would not trade Royce Lewis for anyone else in that draft. His infectious joy at playing baseball is off the charts.

[terrydactyls]

My memory is not infallible but as I remember the 2017 draft hype, the home-town fan favorite was Hunter Greene, followed by either Lewis or McKay, and then Gore.  I do not remember Wright being a an option for first pick.  Hindsight being 20/20, it appears that Lewis was the route to go.  He is still a five tool player:  hitting for average, hitting for power, fielding, throwing, and for the fifth tool, I'm dropping running and replacing it with leadership/inspiration or whatever you want to call it.  He brings a spark and energy into the game that is amazing.

[stringer bell]

When he's been on the field, Royce has been everything you could ask for and more. I think it is more than fair to petition the baseball gods to grant him a decade of relative good health so that Twins fans and the rest of the country can enjoy not only his play, but his charisma and love of the game. 

[Riverbrian]

Just a handful of superstars in the game. Royce is one of them. 

If he can just stay healthy for a decent stretch. The world will see. 

[Doctor Gast]

I preferred Lewis back then on paper, being a 5-tool player over a volatile pitcher. But quickly knowing his character, baseball savvy & leadership, I never doubted him & knew we had something. He's a game changer, an MVP, a person to build a team around. His injuries are due to his naive excitement as he matures & properly managed, his injuries will be less of a problem. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Echo all the great compliments above. We are lucky that Mike Radcliffe, the scouting, the front office, and everyone else could all come together on this individual and take him #1. Speaking for myself, I would start him at Shortstop in Game 2 of the split doubleheader tonight, and never look back. 

[dxpavelka]

Just for kicks and giggles, worth noting, that thus far there have been two all-stars in this draft and one of them (Brent Rooker) was drafted by the Twins.

 

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

My memory is not infallible but as I remember the 2017 draft hype, the home-town fan favorite was Hunter Greene, followed by either Lewis or McKay, and then Gore.  I do not remember Wright being a an option for first pick.  Hindsight being 20/20, it appears that Lewis was the route to go.  He is still a five tool player:  hitting for average, hitting for power, fielding, throwing, and for the fifth tool, I'm dropping running and replacing it with leadership/inspiration or whatever you want to call it.  He brings a spark and energy into the game that is amazing.

Wright was actually my favorite player for the pick, so he was at least on my radar for what it was worth. I remember liking Greene and wanting to stay away from McKay (the idea of a two way player seemed more likely to be not good enough at hitting and pitching).

I think it should be worth mentioning how drafting Lewis at #1 allowed the Twins to go under the slot and spend more on their 3rd rounder Blayne Enlow - which didn't pan out but at least Lewis is a stud. Although it seems like all of the guys who went early are plagued by injuries, but that is just how it goes in this era of baseball.

[bean5302]

Love Lewis, but concentrating on injury issues for other candidates while ignoring Lewis' lengthy injury history is makes this article a dud for me. This was supposed to be an objective analysis. Let me help you with that...

Assuming no future unknown injuries, Lewis certainly looks to have the highest ceiling of the players. Given Lewis' impressively lengthy injury history, that's probably not realistic. That said, some of the other players are already a hair width away from retirement due to injuries at this point, and all of them have experienced some sort of significant setback in the department. I rated their future WAR production alone, without considering costs. If Lewis does turn into a 5-6 WAR, full season player, he's going to be dramatically more expensive than the other players projected so do keep that in mind. MacKenzie Gore is about to hit Arb Eligible next year as well, so a big year to start it off could push him up the payroll quick.

	fWAR	bWAR	Ann. WAR	FA WAR	FA
Hunter Greene	5.1	5.3	3-4	16-19	2028
Royce Lewis	3.6	3.5	5-6	26-30	2029
Brendan McKay	0.8	-0.2	0	1-1	2029
MacKenzie Gore	3.9	3.6	3.5-5	16-22	2028
Kyle Wright	2	2.6	0	3-3	2027

Hunter Greene's gone through quite a few injuries, like Lewis, but Green's on pace to have his 3rd straight season with 20+ starts, roughly averaging 110-120 games on the roster per season. That's more than Lewis' entire career. Greene's struggled with walks, and his ceiling seems quite a bit lower than Lewis' as his secondary offerings aren't elite. Kind of a Joe Ryan type of pitcher, but a pitcher who relies on fastball velocity rather than fastball deception. Future projection, mid rotation starter. 3 WAR / season.

MacKenzie Gore is having a Cy Young caliber season this year. 3.24 ERA, 2.92 FIP, but injuries had slowed down his progress until now. It's looking like he's put some things together in Washington and at age 25, he's showing the kind of performance you could expect from an Ace, but I have my doubts based on his stuff seemingly getting results above the pitches' pay grade. The slider is thrown extremely hard, and I think he's about the hardest throwing lefty fastball pitcher so the velo is helping him, but the movement is a bit sketchy. He's getting results though. He's on pace for his second basically full season in a row this year with the hopes the injuries are largely behind him. Future projection takes into consideration the movement reducing his ceiling a bit to mid/upper rotation starter at 3.5 WAR / season.

Kyle Wright has ended up with the Royals after putting together only one productive and healthy season in 2022. Atlanta rushed Wright up the ranks quickly after the draft with the pitcher even reaching MLB the year after being drafted. Wright floundered in 2019-2020, struggling greatly with a combination of walks and barrels prompting Atlanta to keep him in AAA most of 2021. His aforementioned breakout season came in 2022, though his sparkly 3.19 ERA was outperforming his 3.58 FIP, though the xFIP was only 3.30. From there, Wright developed shoulder issues, ultimately leading to capsule surgery and the Braves gave up on their rising star from 2022 trading him to the Royals for a reliever. Wright's career is probably over as coming back from shoulder capsule surgery is going to be tough. Future projection limited value.

Brendan McKay's lengthy injury struggles are well known. UCL surgery (good outcomes), TOS surgery (poor outcomes), the two-way wonder abandoned the efforts to hit after 2019, making just 25 plate appearances between injuries in 2021 for his last hurrah. One of the biggest reasons to choose McKay was the expectation there was less risk with a prospect who could make it as a hitter or pitcher if they couldn't do both. The surgeries have robbed McKay of a lot of velocity, and I believe he was sitting at about 90mph on his fastball to open the season, then quickly went down with multiple arm issues. It'd be a stretch to believe he's got a notable career in MLB ahead of him IMHO. Future projection, limited value.

All in all, it certainly looks like the Twins made a good, if not the best pick among the top candidates, but it will likely depend on Lewis remaining healthy to capitalize on his talents. MacKenzie Gore looks to be a guy who could potentially give Lewis a run for his money as well.

[Brandon]

What make taking Lewis an even safer pick was that he agreed to a below slot deal that allowed them to draft a late first round talent in the third round and go over slot to sign him.  If Enlow was able to make it to the show and contribute for the Twins, taking Lewis first overall is what made that possible.  

[D.C Twins]

Three words:  ROYCE F-ING LEWIS!

[mikelink45]

Unfortunately what stands out most is how many injuries have set back this class.  I still think Lewis is the best and hope Green can reach his potential.

[Fatbat]

I was so on the Lewis draft train because He is such a great athlete and drafted as a SS. The freak injuries are just plain sad but he is only 25 yo and I seriously hope he is a Twin his entire career.  The kid is on another planet when he is on the field and in the batters box. He is a freak of nature.  All the other top ten 2017 draftees are just playing in his world. Royce will be an MVP. 

[gil4]

I didn't know enough about Lewis to love or hate the pick. I revisited my comments at the time, and I preferred Greene and didn't want McKay.