Revisiting the Minnesota Twins' Choice: Royce Lewis and the 2017 MLB Draft

If Lewis can stay healthy, it looks like he will be 1 of the top players in baseball. At least in the short time he has played. I would say it was a very successful draft!

The saying goes that hindsight is 20/20. In hindsight, I would not trade Royce Lewis for anyone else in that draft. His infectious joy at playing baseball is off the charts.

My memory is not infallible but as I remember the 2017 draft hype, the home-town fan favorite was Hunter Greene, followed by either Lewis or McKay, and then Gore.  I do not remember Wright being a an option for first pick.  Hindsight being 20/20, it appears that Lewis was the route to go.  He is still a five tool player:  hitting for average, hitting for power, fielding, throwing, and for the fifth tool, I'm dropping running and replacing it with leadership/inspiration or whatever you want to call it.  He brings a spark and energy into the game that is amazing.

When he's been on the field, Royce has been everything you could ask for and more. I think it is more than fair to petition the baseball gods to grant him a decade of relative good health so that Twins fans and the rest of the country can enjoy not only his play, but his charisma and love of the game. 

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

My memory is not infallible but as I remember the 2017 draft hype, the home-town fan favorite was Hunter Greene, followed by either Lewis or McKay, and then Gore.  I do not remember Wright being a an option for first pick.  Hindsight being 20/20, it appears that Lewis was the route to go.  He is still a five tool player:  hitting for average, hitting for power, fielding, throwing, and for the fifth tool, I'm dropping running and replacing it with leadership/inspiration or whatever you want to call it.  He brings a spark and energy into the game that is amazing.

Wright was actually my favorite player for the pick, so he was at least on my radar for what it was worth. I remember liking Greene and wanting to stay away from McKay (the idea of a two way player seemed more likely to be not good enough at hitting and pitching).

I think it should be worth mentioning how drafting Lewis at #1 allowed the Twins to go under the slot and spend more on their 3rd rounder Blayne Enlow - which didn't pan out but at least Lewis is a stud. Although it seems like all of the guys who went early are plagued by injuries, but that is just how it goes in this era of baseball.

Love Lewis, but concentrating on injury issues for other candidates while ignoring Lewis' lengthy injury history is makes this article a dud for me. This was supposed to be an objective analysis. Let me help you with that...

Assuming no future unknown injuries, Lewis certainly looks to have the highest ceiling of the players. Given Lewis' impressively lengthy injury history, that's probably not realistic. That said, some of the other players are already a hair width away from retirement due to injuries at this point, and all of them have experienced some sort of significant setback in the department. I rated their future WAR production alone, without considering costs. If Lewis does turn into a 5-6 WAR, full season player, he's going to be dramatically more expensive than the other players projected so do keep that in mind. MacKenzie Gore is about to hit Arb Eligible next year as well, so a big year to start it off could push him up the payroll quick.

Hunter Greene's gone through quite a few injuries, like Lewis, but Green's on pace to have his 3rd straight season with 20+ starts, roughly averaging 110-120 games on the roster per season. That's more than Lewis' entire career. Greene's struggled with walks, and his ceiling seems quite a bit lower than Lewis' as his secondary offerings aren't elite. Kind of a Joe Ryan type of pitcher, but a pitcher who relies on fastball velocity rather than fastball deception. Future projection, mid rotation starter. 3 WAR / season.

MacKenzie Gore is having a Cy Young caliber season this year. 3.24 ERA, 2.92 FIP, but injuries had slowed down his progress until now. It's looking like he's put some things together in Washington and at age 25, he's showing the kind of performance you could expect from an Ace, but I have my doubts based on his stuff seemingly getting results above the pitches' pay grade. The slider is thrown extremely hard, and I think he's about the hardest throwing lefty fastball pitcher so the velo is helping him, but the movement is a bit sketchy. He's getting results though. He's on pace for his second basically full season in a row this year with the hopes the injuries are largely behind him. Future projection takes into consideration the movement reducing his ceiling a bit to mid/upper rotation starter at 3.5 WAR / season.

Kyle Wright has ended up with the Royals after putting together only one productive and healthy season in 2022. Atlanta rushed Wright up the ranks quickly after the draft with the pitcher even reaching MLB the year after being drafted. Wright floundered in 2019-2020, struggling greatly with a combination of walks and barrels prompting Atlanta to keep him in AAA most of 2021. His aforementioned breakout season came in 2022, though his sparkly 3.19 ERA was outperforming his 3.58 FIP, though the xFIP was only 3.30. From there, Wright developed shoulder issues, ultimately leading to capsule surgery and the Braves gave up on their rising star from 2022 trading him to the Royals for a reliever. Wright's career is probably over as coming back from shoulder capsule surgery is going to be tough. Future projection limited value.

Brendan McKay's lengthy injury struggles are well known. UCL surgery (good outcomes), TOS surgery (poor outcomes), the two-way wonder abandoned the efforts to hit after 2019, making just 25 plate appearances between injuries in 2021 for his last hurrah. One of the biggest reasons to choose McKay was the expectation there was less risk with a prospect who could make it as a hitter or pitcher if they couldn't do both. The surgeries have robbed McKay of a lot of velocity, and I believe he was sitting at about 90mph on his fastball to open the season, then quickly went down with multiple arm issues. It'd be a stretch to believe he's got a notable career in MLB ahead of him IMHO. Future projection, limited value.

All in all, it certainly looks like the Twins made a good, if not the best pick among the top candidates, but it will likely depend on Lewis remaining healthy to capitalize on his talents. MacKenzie Gore looks to be a guy who could potentially give Lewis a run for his money as well.