Rockies (Quantrill) vs Twins (Varland): 6/11/24, 6:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Who will win, the Colorado Rockies or Louie Varland?

Or maybe more appropriately, who will lose less, the Colorado Rockies or Louie Varland?

The moveable object versus the very stoppable force. A matchup for the ages, worthy of Mount Olympus itself.

[Parfigliano]

Id say Varland is running out of opportunities to show he is an MLB level starting pitcher.  Hopefully he takes advantage of this.

[CRF]

Whether he was working on certain things, or not...Louie wasn't exactly tearing it up in StP. I hope he doesn't get hammered tonight. He needs to keep the ball in the yard, and keep us in the game. 

[Mike Sixel]

Why not Boushley? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Why not indeed? I wonder if Varland is getting showcased for a possible trade. Assuming we are trying to get another starter like Luzardo or even Tyler Anderson, the Marlins or Angels will want a young controllable pitcher back as part of the package. Bringing up Varland does make one wonder if he could fill that role in a trade. Good for the Twins if we get the right guy (Luzardo), good for the other team because they get a possible starter who is at worst a strong late inning reliever/closer type and is pre-arbitration, and good for Varland who gets to go to a team that will let him sink or swim as a starter in a low pressure environment. Just food for thought.  

[Mike Sixel]

I love varland in the bullpen.... I'm not convinced he's a starter or that anyone would trade for him thinking he was one? I'd have preferred doing this versus the Yankees, they were losing those games anyway.... Not that I think this is a guaranteed loss at all, he's got ability. .... But if you're just trying to get some rest for everyone, and are going to pitch a lesser guy, do it in a game you are likely to lose, imo. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Why not indeed? I wonder if Varland is getting showcased for a possible trade. Assuming we are trying to get another starter like Luzardo or even Tyler Anderson, the Marlins or Angels will want a young controllable pitcher back as part of the package. Bringing up Varland does make one wonder if he could fill that role in a trade. Good for the Twins if we get the right guy (Luzardo), good for the other team because they get a possible starter who is at worst a strong late inning reliever/closer type and is pre-arbitration, and good for Varland who gets to go to a team that will let him sink or swim as a starter in a low pressure environment. Just food for thought.  

Or...............could they be looking at him to give a strong start and deal the more impressive SWR for Luzardo?   I am hoping not, but Luzardo is an upgrade over either of them.    Castillo going down was tough as he has been pretty good in the pen, so thinking Varland reverts to the BP after this spot start or goes down in 10 days for Castillo or another arm for the pen

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why not Boushley? 

Why Boushley?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Jocko87 said:

Why Boushley?

Because we know what Varland is, mostly.....you never really know anything about a player until they hit the majors....and he's been MUCH better than Varland. IMO, teams should reward success.....YMMV, of course. 

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

Whether he was working on certain things, or not...Louie wasn't exactly tearing it up in StP. I hope he doesn't get hammered tonight. He needs to keep the ball in the yard, and keep us in the game. 

He is certainly working on things, much like an extended spring training. G&G broke down the pitch mix stuff on a recent episode.

He'll bring a different approach tonight. What that is? Who knows but it won't be the AAA version. This is an appropriately timed opportunity to put the new approach under actual fire. Then back down for a few more tweaks.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they had this lined up for a month.  It fits his rotation, the team need in the schedule and a sensible development plan.

Any talk of anyone else in this spot is silly.

[wabene]

Good luck Louie Varland

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because we know what Varland is, mostly.....you never really know anything about a player until they hit the majors....and he's been MUCH better than Varland. IMO, teams should reward success.....YMMV, of course. 

Caleb the 30 yo career journeyman with 5 years of 4.50 era at AAA? That guy is ahead of a 26 yo legit starter prospect that just learned to throw 99?

You may have decided on Varland but I promise the team hasn't. If they get it right, the upside is ace. It's close.

Caleb Boushley eats throwaway innings, Lou Varland gets developed.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Caleb the 30 yo career journeyman with 5 years of 4.50 era at AAA? That guy is ahead of a 26 yo legit starter prospect that just learned to throw 99?

You may have decided on Varland but I promise the team hasn't. If they get it right, the upside is ace. It's close.

Caleb Boushley eats throwaway innings, Lou Varland gets developed.

I get it, if I disagree I'm "silly"....

Of course I'd rather have Varland be good, I'm not sure how that's in doubt.....

[LA Vikes Fan]

53 minutes ago, mickster said:

Or...............could they be looking at him to give a strong start and deal the more impressive SWR for Luzardo?   I am hoping not, but Luzardo is an upgrade over either of them.    Castillo going down was tough as he has been pretty good in the pen, so thinking Varland reverts to the BP after this spot start or goes down in 10 days for Castillo or another arm for the pen

Either SWR or Varland in a deal for Luzardo would be a good call, depending on what went with them of course. It would be ironic if we traded SWR and Martin for Luzardo, thereby completing the what did we get for Jose Berrios loop. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Either SWR or Varland in a deal for Luzardo would be a good call, depending on what went with them of course. It would be ironic if we traded SWR and Martin for Luzardo, thereby completing the what did we get for Jose Berrios loop. 

I can't see the Twins dealing SWR, who is cheap and has been effective, if not great, as a 23 year old .....

[LA Vikes Fan]

You're probably right. I know it's been only 10 starts but he looks like a potential long term mid rotation rotation fixture with 5(?) years of control after 2024. That's a very valuable asset. He might be "untouchable" at this point. Varland, less so. 

[Schmoeman5]

52 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Why Boushley?

Just the name. Boushley! Twins Daily will have a field day

[KirbyDome89]

51 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

He is certainly working on things, much like an extended spring training. G&G broke down the pitch mix stuff on a recent episode.

He'll bring a different approach tonight. What that is? Who knows but it won't be the AAA version. This is an appropriately timed opportunity to put the new approach under actual fire. Then back down for a few more tweaks.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they had this lined up for a month.  It fits his rotation, the team need in the schedule and a sensible development plan.

Any talk of anyone else in this spot is silly.

The primary difference being guys whose ST performances you can write off, i.e. those who are "tinkering," are established MLB pitchers. Varland didn't change his pitch mix in AAA in an effort to improve his MLB footing, he did it because he literally couldn't survive as a starting pitcher without attempting some major changes. 

You don't think the approach tonight will be the one he worked on for the last 6 weeks in AAA? Why bother bringing him up if that's the case? 

43 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Caleb the 30 yo career journeyman with 5 years of 4.50 era at AAA? That guy is ahead of a 26 yo legit starter prospect that just learned to throw 99?

You may have decided on Varland but I promise the team hasn't. If they get it right, the upside is ace. It's close.

Caleb Boushley eats throwaway innings, Lou Varland gets developed.

Legit starter prospect? Ace? And you're calling others silly? 

Why Boushley? We're talking about winning one game. Varland has an ERA north of 5 since his demotion to AAA; he's struggling with reworking his pitch mix there. Idk why we'd expect him to start carving up MLB hitters. Maybe he puts it together and finds some consistency in the rotation but his most likely landing spot at this point is in the bullpen. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Caleb the 30 yo career journeyman with 5 years of 4.50 era at AAA? That guy is ahead of a 26 yo legit starter prospect that just learned to throw 99?

You may have decided on Varland but I promise the team hasn't. If they get it right, the upside is ace. It's close.

Caleb Boushley eats throwaway innings, Lou Varland gets developed.

Varland's velocity didn't just happen as he's been throwing hard since 2022, and he does not throw 99 in the rotation. 

His fastest pitch thrown this year was 98.3mph, and in only 2 games this year has he hit 97.2+mph on a single pitch while averaging 96mph. Btw, radar guns aren't perfect so when you see a few outliers all in a single game, the radar gun might just be hot or cool.

Varland's status as a legitimate starting rotation prospect is a little dubious. He was recalled largely because he's a starter on the 40 man, and there isn't really anybody else at AAA who's pushing the Twins to add. His realistic ceiling if everything works out right is probably a #4 rotation arm because his pitches don't have good movement and he doesn't have a single "plus" offering in his arsenal while in the rotation. His pitches need to get better in terms of movement, not faster to succeed as a starter. He was a poor starter in 2023. He's been a poor starter in 2024, and he finds himself well behind SWR in the rotation mix at this point with a body of work consisting of 19 MLB starts over 3 years with a 5.56 ERA. as @Mike Sixel points out, that's starting to get to a significant sample size while his results have been consistently getting worse.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

What was the corresponding move to bring Varland back?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

And yeah, he belongs in the pen. 1-2 innings. Twins have had success with Jax and Sands (sort of). SWR has shown that he has the much higher upside. I wouldn't keep stretching Varland out in hopes of his becoming something he's not - a reliable starting pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

And yeah, he belongs in the pen. 1-2 innings. Twins have had success with Jax and Sands (sort of). SWR has shown that he has the much higher upside. I wouldn't keep stretching Varland out in hopes of his becoming something he's not - a reliable starting pitcher.

Imagine if they'd have moved Jax to the pen earlier......which some of us suggested more than once, and were told that keeping them as a SP longer was good. What's good? Being in the majors and getting PAID, even as a RP,, not being in AAA....

[Jocko87]

36 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The primary difference being guys whose ST performances you can write off, i.e. those who are "tinkering," are established MLB pitchers. Varland didn't change his pitch mix in AAA in an effort to improve his MLB footing, he did it because he literally couldn't survive as a starting pitcher without attempting some major changes. 

You don't think the approach tonight will be the one he worked on for the last 6 weeks in AAA? Why bother bringing him up if that's the case? 

Legit starter prospect? Ace? And you're calling others silly? 

Why Boushley? We're talking about winning one game. Varland has an ERA north of 5 since his demotion to AAA; he's struggling with reworking his pitch mix there. Idk why we'd expect him to start carving up MLB hitters. Maybe he puts it together and finds some consistency in the rotation but his most likely landing spot at this point is in the bullpen. 

If he doesn't fix it, he's not a reliever either, long term. If he does fix it, he's the reliever from last year for 7 innings at a time. It's worth the effort.

[Doctor Gast]

This might be a BP game. Give the ball to Varland & say give it all you got & see how far you can go. Destiny is in your hands. If he goes 5 great, if less fine. Varland can be a good SP in the future or he can be a very good RP now. I'd take the very good RP for now & see what happens.

[Schmoeman5]

So Louie gets the start tonight. Rockies hitters are focusing on Varlands tendencies. So if he comes out with a different plan and can hit his spots he should do OK. If he's just throwing middle middle. It will be business as usual. Nothing to see here. We'll find out shortly. Louie seems like one of those guys who when things are working, it's great. When not he tends to go downhill fast. I think he needs to work on the mental part as much as the physical.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Imagine if they'd have moved Jax to the pen earlier......which some of us suggested more than once, and were told that keeping them as a SP longer was good. What's good? Being in the majors and getting PAID, even as a RP,, not being in AAA....

Too much feet dragging on moving these guys to the pen. 

Plus, there would be a big benefit to free agency and roster construction if this team is able to build the bullpen internally.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

If he doesn't fix it, he's not a reliever either, long term. If he does fix it, he's the reliever from last year for 7 innings at a time. It's worth the effort.

Nobody is saying that Varland working on his pitch mix isn't worth the effort. 

The range of possible outcomes certainly isn't binary...

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

This might be a BP game. Give the ball to Varland & say give it all you got & see how far you can go. Destiny is in your hands. If he goes 5 great, if less fine. Varland can be a good SP in the future or he can be a very good RP now. I'd take the very good RP for now & see what happens.

That probably defeats the point of the spot start. They are trying to extend the pitching  through a stretch with no off days.  It's probably more like Louis will wear it for 100 pitches regardless of result type of night.  

[Jocko87]

34 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Nobody is saying that Varland working on his pitch mix isn't worth the effort. 

The range of possible outcomes certainly isn't binary...

Agreed, but the outcome is closer to binary than we really want to think about. A high leverage relief pitcher that's got a home run problem isn't a high leverage reliever for long.  He got by on surprise last year and what he's fighting early this year doesn't play anywhere. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

That probably defeats the point of the spot start. They are trying to extend the pitching  through a stretch with no off days.  It's probably more like Louis will wear it for 100 pitches regardless of result type of night.  

I wouldn't be shocked by this......