Scouting the Statline: Charlee Soto's Hot Start

[Jamie Cameron]

Charlee Soto is off to a great start in his first season at Fort Myers. How has he tweaked his pitch mix in his first few starts as a pro? What do the underlying numbers suggest about his performance? What's next to work on? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins leaned into an exceptional prep class in the 2023 draft, selecting right-handed pitcher Charlee Soto with their second pick at number 34 overall. Soto was the 36th ranked player available by consensus, and the second right-handed prep pitcher in the entire draft class, behind Noble Meyer (10th). The two met for the first time professionally on Saturday night, Soto’s third appearance of 2024. So what does the data tell us about the Twins’ high octane young arm? Let’s dig in.

When digging into prospect data from their first go of it as a professional, I like to revisit scouting reports and notes as they often give us clues about what a prospect has been working on adding to their arsenal. On the 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board, the report on Soto noted a four seam fastball, power slider, and good feel for a changeup. Two of the initial opportunities pre-draft scouting reports alluded to for Soto were more consistent strike throwing and tweaking his fastball as his four seamer didn’t have great shape. Here's Soto's pitch break chart through his first three appearances of 2024.

Pre-season reports emerged of Soto tweaking his pitch mix, specifically, adding a two seam fastball (circumventing bad fastball shape), and a sweeper. This is where some conjecture is needed. My take on Soto’s pitch break chart is that the ‘slider’ is his new sweeper (typically having more horizontal movement) and the ‘cutter’ is his old slider (although I could be wrong). Through three appearances, we have a decent idea (SSS alert) of the pitch mix he’s operating with.

versus left-handed hitters		versus right-handed hitters
4Seam%	35.15	4Seam%	11.1%
2Seam%	10.8%	2Seam%	34.6%
Change%	29.7%	Change%	14.8%
Slider%	14.9%	Slider%	21%
Sweeper%	9.5%	Sweeper%	18.5%

Soto is leveraging a much more equally divided plan of attack using his four seam fastball, slider variations, and changeup against left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, it's a combination of his two-seam fastball and slider variations, with his changeup and four seam fastball used more as a change of pace.

So, what has this translated to in terms of outcomes for Soto? Again we should note the small sample size caveat here, but it’s hard not to be impressed with his initial returns. It’s also noteworthy that Soto was just 17 on draft day. Now 18, he’s a full three years younger than the average pitcher at Low A. 

In three outings for Fort Myers, Soto has been pretty dominant, sporting a stingy 2.70 ERA. He’s striking out 37.5% of hitters (exceptional), and walking 12.5% with a 62.6% Strike% (an area of opportunity as he racks up pro innings). Soto’s advanced metrics back up this strong start. Soto has a 1.75 FIP, 2.42 xFIP, an 18.1 SwStrk%, and has a 70% Ground%, a result of leaning into a more east/west pitch mix and break profile. That’s about as good as you could have hoped for, particularly from a player who picked up pitching relatively late in his amateur career.

There's one last metric that I find interesting and noteworthy about Soto. At the major league level, the Twins have formed a rotation from pitchers with good to elite release extension (Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober being the most notable examples). Soto is an outlier for the opposite reason, he has minimal release extension. MLB average extension is ~6.3 feet, Soto averages just 5.8 feet. The primary impact of extension is perceived velocity (the closer you release the pitch to the plate, the faster it appears to a hitter). Pitchers that benefit from excellent extension usually have mechanics that enable it (the lower a pitcher loads or 'gets into' their back leg). It's an interesting quirk of Soto’s delivery and something I'll be interested to see if the Twins and Soto tinker with moving forwards.

Soto is at the beginning of his journey as a professional. He’s working on throwing at least two new pitches, and there’s still work to do with both control and command. It would be prudent to expect some bumps in the road for him moving forwards. All that said, it’s OK to be excited too. This is a prospect with a great frame and outstanding arm talent who has seemingly taken well to learning and throwing new pitches in a truncated timeframe. If Soto maintains good health and solid production, he’ll be the Twins best pitching prospect by the end of the season.

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[TwinsDr2021]

Good luck to him, I missed in the article where all this data was taken from 10 innings?

[Doctor Wu]

Very good article and analysis. I didn't realize that release extension for a pitcher could be so big a factor, So yes, it WILL be interesting to see if the Twins tinker with Soto in that respect. In any case, very excited to see him finally pitching and pitching well!

[Guest]

Good news for a Twins prospect!!

[Fatbat]

Great article!  With such a big frame, I am surprised that his extension is so short.  When that gets stretched out, he will be cracking 100s regularly.

[Doctor Gast]

I've liked Soto from the beginning. He's in good hands, it's great to finally see the results of our expectations & him exceeding them & discovering that he has even a higher upside.

[Peter]

Can’t wait when he’s with twins!!! He’s future ace for team!!! 

[wabene]

How is his velocity looking? In highlights of his first outings he was hitting 98, but in this last outing it appeared to be more 95-96. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

It appears Soto is dialing back the velocity a bit (similar to Petty's progression although I do expect more velocity due to his size with Soto),  while still being able to get it up in the upper 90's when needed.  Control is still a bit of an issue,  hovering around 60% strikes from what I have been seeing.  However,  the stuff is there for the strikeouts.  The quality of the pitching is definitely matching his potential.  We have to remember Soto, he has a high ceiling with a low floor, due to his limited pitching (which is both good and bad -  limited innings, and limited bad habits).  So far so good,  this pick is looking very promising.  Like Gast I have been very excited about this pick.   

[Dman]

I was excited when they drafted him and surprised he was ready for A ball at such a young age.  Honestly to me he looks like the best arm on that Fort Meyers team in this SSS.  I think his changeup is a real difference maker pitch.  Like this article said needs to round out the control on some of his pitches find the edges of the zone a bit more etc, and while I expect there to be some ups and downs for 18 what he is doing is beyond expectations to me.  

[jmlease1]

He's a very interesting prospect and I'm intrigued that he's working with looks like a 5 pitch mix at his age and level. a lot of young pitchers start out with a fastball and maybe 1-2 off-speed pitches and they really spend a lot of time trying to add an effective 2nd/3rd pitch as they go through the organization. I think it's a little more unusual to be working with 5 at this level, but it does present opportunities to refine and remove pitches later as they discover what's most effective for him.

Glad to see him working in A-ball and he'll be fun to track as he progresses. Lot of talent.

[Steve Lein]

I really liked seeing, in his start before this last one (on 4/13) that was against Noble Meyer, was him getting 9 swings and misses on 16 changeups that he threw.

Edited April 24, 2024 by Steve Lein

[gman]

I hope he is one of the rare ones that stays healthy and makes it. We've seen too many flame out over the years. Good luck Charlee.

[Mike Sixel]

I've been begging them to use more high picks on pitchers. Let's hope he continues to progress. 

[roger]

What a fantastic prospect!  Thanks for telling us more about him.

This young man could spend three full years in the minors and break-in with the Twins while just 21 years old.  And with his size, he could be an absolute horse on the mound for many years.  Let's pray that he doesn't catch the Cantenaro/Prielipp disease.

 

[Jamie Cameron]

6 hours ago, wabene said:

How is his velocity looking? In highlights of his first outings he was hitting 98, but in this last outing it appeared to be more 95-96. 

Here's 90th percentile velocity for his pitches so far

4 seam - 96.8

2 seam - 96.5

Slider - 89.4

Sweeper - 87.8

Change 88

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've been begging them to use more high picks on pitchers. Let's hope he continues to progress. 

This draft and next, they need to stop drafting 1B &2B men and focus on pitchers, C and Brandon Winokur types. 

[bean5302]

Here's hoping the Twins let Soto succeed and don't try to rebuild his delivery and mechanics to get 0.1mph more out of him if his stuff is working and he's healthy.