Twins Pitching Prospect Charlee Soto Off to Hot Start With New Pitch Mix

The Twins leaned into an exceptional prep class in the 2023 draft, selecting right-handed pitcher Charlee Soto with their second pick, 34th overall. Soto was the 36th-ranked player available, according to our consensus board. He was the second-best right-handed prep pitcher in the entire draft class, behind Noble Meyer (10th). The two met for the first time professionally on Saturday night, Soto’s third appearance of 2024. So what does the data tell us about the Twins’ high-octane young arm?

When digging into prospect data from their first go of it as a professional, I like to revisit scouting reports and notes, as they often give us clues about what a prospect has been working on adding to their arsenal. On the 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board, the report on Soto noted a four-seam fastball, power slider, and good feel for a changeup. Two of the initial opportunities pre-draft scouting reports alluded to for Soto were more consistent strike-throwing and tweaking his fastball, as his four-seamer didn’t have great shape. Here's Soto's pitch break chart through his first three appearances of 2024.

Before the season, reports emerged of Soto tweaking his pitch mix--specifically, adding a two-seam fastball (circumventing bad fastball shape) and a sweeper. This is where some conjecture is needed. My take on Soto’s pitch break chart is that the ‘slider’ is his new sweeper (typically having more horizontal movement) and the ‘cutter’ is his old slider (although I could be wrong). Through three appearances, we have a decent idea (small-sample alert) of the pitch mix he’s operating with.

Soto is leveraging a much more equally divided plan of attack, using his four-seam fastball, slider variations, and changeup against left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, it's a combination of his two-seam fastball and slider variations, with his changeup and four-seamer used more as a change of pace.

So, what has this translated to in terms of outcomes for Soto? Again, we should note the sample size caveat here, but it’s hard not to be impressed with his initial returns. It’s also noteworthy that Soto was just 17 on draft day. Now 18, he’s a full three years younger than the average pitcher even at Low A.

In three outings for Fort Myers, Soto has been pretty dominant, sporting a stingy 2.70 ERA. He’s striking out 37.5% of hitters (exceptional), and walking 12.5% with a 62.6% Strike% (an area of opportunity for improvement as he racks up pro innings). Soto’s advanced metrics back up this strong start. He has a 1.75 FIP, 2.42 xFIP, 18.1 SwStrk%, and 70% ground-ball rate, a result of leaning into a more east/west pitch mix and break profile. That’s about as good as you could have hoped for, particularly from a player who picked up pitching relatively late in his amateur career.

There's one last metric that I find interesting and noteworthy about Soto. At the major-league level, the Twins have formed a rotation from pitchers with good-to-elite release extension (Pablo López and Bailey Ober being the most notable examples). Soto is an outlier for the opposite reason: he has minimal release extension. Average extension in MLB is roughly 6.3 feet, Soto averages just 5.8 feet. The primary impact of extension is perceived velocity (the closer you release the pitch to the plate, the faster it appears to a hitter). Pitchers who benefit from excellent extension usually have mechanics that enable it (the lower a pitcher loads or 'gets into' their back leg). It's an interesting quirk of Soto’s delivery, and something I'll be interested to see if the Twins and Soto tinker with moving forward.

Soto is at the beginning of his journey as a professional. He’s working on throwing at least two new pitches, and there’s still work to do with both control and command. It would be prudent to expect some bumps in the road for him. All that said, it’s OK to be excited, too. This is a prospect with a great frame and outstanding arm talent, who has seemingly taken well to learning and throwing new pitches in a very short timeframe. If Soto maintains good health and solid production, he’ll be the Twins' best pitching prospect by the end of the season.

Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!