Game Thread: Twins @ Royals, 3/28@3:10pm CDT

[Azviking101]

Ragans splits I referenced

Ragans vs RH last year: .187/.271/.285. 30.4% K-rate
Ragans vs LH last year: .253/.344/.367, 23.7% K-rate

[RocRedWing]

I'd like to file a claim with the "we're back" department

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I like the lineup.  I like getting the lefties at bats against lefties here and there but against an opening day quality lefty isn't the spot.  When you actually play out the game theory it might not be hard to work the early season pitch count up and then target with the lefties off the bench in big spots.  Julien might play half the game still.

I'm watching the lineups for where Rocco has built a late game spot to get 3 lefties in a row against a RH reliever.  I see a 6th or 7th inning spot where a RH reliever might have to stare down Kepler/Julien/Wallner/Kiriloff.  I like that for us. 

I don't know much about Angel Zerpa but having two lefties in the pen should make it an interesting managerial chess game.  It could just as easily be a lefty on lefty in the Royals favor depending on how the game goes.  I'd rather not pull the PH trigger as early as Rocco might but if there are ducks on the pond lets try to break it open.  The later game situation might never come.

I need a "don't make me tap the sign" meme for lineup creation.  Its not about starters anymore.

I don't mind the lineup. Jeffers in the 2 hole is a bold move I wouldn't have expected, but overall I have no real complaints. It's a different strategy than Rocco/the Twins deployed last year in that they've put all the pinch hit guys at the bottom instead of having them spread around with someone like Jeffers hitting in the middle of them. I assume that'll be different when it's a righty on the mound as Julien is very likely the leadoff guy in that situation so Farmer is going to step into the leadoff spot late against lefties, but I prefer platoon bats at the bottom of the lineup. I wish the Twins had 5 guys they trusted at all times to drop into the top 5 spots in the order everyday and just let the bottom 4 spots be interchangeable, but I don't think they'll be deploying that strategy any time soon.

I'm just fascinated to see how things play out in the cold in what should be a low scoring game and how the managers do things. Opening day makes me think Ragans isn't going to have a super long outing so it's more likely that the Royals are going to be able to use a lefty against the lefties late in the game than it'd be if it were the middle of July and Ragans would be more likely to go deeper and the lefties would likely only get 1 AB. It's opening day for strategy questioning as well.

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Ragans splits I referenced

Ragans vs RH last year: .187/.271/.285. 30.4% K-rate
Ragans vs LH last year: .253/.344/.367, 23.7% K-rate

Interesting. Since managers tend to bring left handed relievers in to face left handed batters, I'd guess most of that lefty lack of success was when he was a reliever with the Rangers as opposed to a starter with the Royals.

But yeah, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement for Ragans. Or for a righthanded heavy lineup.

[Azviking101]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Interesting. Since managers tend to bring left handed relievers in to face left handed batters, I'd guess most of that lefty lack of success was when he was a reliever with the Rangers as opposed to a starter with the Royals.

But yeah, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement for Ragans. Or for a righthanded heavy lineup.

I wish I knew how to drill further into these splits to find his numbers as a starter with the royals, but only 24 of his 95 innings last year came with Texas. 

[cHawk]

I can't say I'm happy to see Wallner and Julien excluded from the starting lineup.

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I can't say I'm happy to see Wallner and Julien excluded from the starting lineup.

But can you type it?  This is the interwebs afterall...

[cHawk]

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

But can you type it?  This is the interwebs afterall...

I can neither say nor type it.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, danielp19653 said:

Lineups are up 

I'd like our best line-up on the field. So I'd like Vazquez at catcher batting 9th, Jeffers at DH batting 2nd is fine. Margot hasn't shown much to deserve being in the line-up. Go Twins!

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like our best line-up on the field. So I'd like Vazquez at catcher batting 9th, Jeffers at DH batting 2nd is fine. Margot hasn't shown much to deserve being in the line-up. Go Twins!

I'd also prefer Jeffers DH and not Margot. I guess since I want both of them playing, I'd rather have Vazquez catch and Margot on the bench.....so agreed.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

On the bright side (and I have to hunt pretty hard), Buxton is able to play center, and I do like him in the lead off spot.  A worse scenario would be Buxton DH'ing with Margot in CF.

Dont give Rocco any ideas.

[Parfigliano]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like our best line-up on the field. So I'd like Vazquez at catcher batting 9th, Jeffers at DH batting 2nd is fine. Margot hasn't shown much to deserve being in the line-up. Go Twins!

He's shown seasoned vet status.  That means a great deal to Twins management even if you are past your prime.

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd also prefer Jeffers DH and not Margot. I guess since I want both of them playing, I'd rather have Vazquez catch and Margot on the bench.....so agreed.

The fact that there is already a discussion about putting both Jeffers and Vazquez in the starting lineup facing lefties, makes me think Brian O'Keefe will be the first player called up this year.

I can't believe any part of that sentence could be true.

[Jocko87]

24 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like our best line-up on the field. So I'd like Vazquez at catcher batting 9th, Jeffers at DH batting 2nd is fine. Margot hasn't shown much to deserve being in the line-up. Go Twins!

Save that sentiment for the playoffs, you'll get it.  Different factors today and throughout the long season.

[Jerr]

WCCO AM has it's extended pre-game on and is worth a listen, as we wait.

[Jocko87]

56 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

I wish I knew how to drill further into these splits to find his numbers as a starter with the royals, but only 24 of his 95 innings last year came with Texas. 

Its a small sample size issue most likely.  In 2022 he was death on lefties, .519 OPS. In 2023 with the Rangers as a reliever he was horrible against lefties but then as a starter with the Royals he was neutral, good against both.  So a 24 inning sample of bad against lefties.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see Rocco go reverse on someone down the road if the splits justify.  TD would explode.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Given this lineup, Kirilloff would be the platoon partner of Margot. I doubt Rocco pinch hits for either of the switch hitters, but Julien for Farmer is very likely if the Twins are tied or behind. 

I'd think the plan is for him to hit for Margot, but how much are they going to ignore Santana's numbers against righties for the last few years if they're down by 2 in the 7th with guys on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs with Santana stepping to the plate against a righty? Would they go to Kirilloff there?

[Azviking101]

9 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Its a small sample size issue most likely.  In 2022 he was death on lefties, .519 OPS. In 2023 with the Rangers as a reliever he was horrible against lefties but then as a starter with the Royals he was neutral, good against both.  So a 24 inning sample of bad against lefties.

But I wouldn't be surprised to see Rocco go reverse on someone down the road if the splits justify.  TD would explode.

Thanks for drilling into this. Makes me feel a lot better. I don’t love having a worse OF defense just to keep Castro’s flexibility alive, but it’s not that Castro is  bad out there 

[Squirrel]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not according to the standings on the screen shot. Must be tie breaker giving the Royals 4th place and the Twins 5th. I'll have to read the CBA again and figure out where they're getting that boost from.

Blame the alphabet

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd think the plan is for him to hit for Margot, but how much are they going to ignore Santana's numbers against righties for the last few years if they're down by 2 in the 7th with guys on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs with Santana stepping to the plate against a righty? Would they go to Kirilloff there?

I doubt they are worried

[chpettit19]

Just now, Squirrel said:

Blame the alphabet

Oh, I do. Been blaming the alphabet for years. Why can't the letters each just have 1 sound they make every time they're in a word?

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

I doubt they are worried

A .700 OPS against a bunch of minor leaguers is absolutely a reason to worry. Carlos Santana should be a massive concern for the Twins against righties.

[twinssporto]

Happy opening day everyone! Looking forward to a great 2024 and a WS ring to boot! 

Can't wait to watch Lopez hurl some heat today....

Go Twins!

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A .700 OPS against a bunch of minor leaguers is absolutely a reason to worry. This stat line isn't the selling point you think it is, even for spring training numbers. In fact, it's doing the opposite. A .700 OPS would've been good for 117th in the majors for qualified hitters last year. Carlos Santana should be a massive concern for the Twins against righties.

Kirilloffs .000 againt Left Hand pitchers is a bigger reason to worry.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, RocRedWing said:

I'd like to file a claim with the "we're back" department

That guy looks veeeerrry familiar!

[Linus]

I’m not posting this to be snarky but get used to Julien et al sitting against lefties.  The Twins clearly believe the metrics which suggest almost all left handed hitters suck against lefties. I’m fine with it especially when the right handed counterpart is a better fielder. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, RpR said:

Kirilloffs .000 againt Left Hand pitchers is a bigger reason to worry.

And he's not playing against the lefty today. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Twins in last place already!

"Where do these stairs go?"

from Ghostbusters.

[nicksaviking]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A .700 OPS against a bunch of minor leaguers is absolutely a reason to worry. Carlos Santana should be a massive concern for the Twins against righties.

It was 30 whole at bats though, that's pretty much as conclusive as you can get.

[nicksaviking]

38 minutes ago, RpR said:

Kirilloffs .000 againt Left Hand pitchers is a bigger reason to worry.

What sample size is smaller, at bats in spring training? Or the number of people who actually put any weight in those meaningless games?