Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #2 Brooks Lee, SS

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I completely understand that issue and that Lee has to develop his craft against lefties. Is there any data that can support getting that specific development in AAA vs. MLB if all other developmental factors point to an MLB promotion is in order? 

What is your minimum acceptable performance vs LHP? 700 OPS? You would want at least 50% confidence that he's performing at or above that level. That's (guessing, didn't look these up) 1000 OPS after 30 at-bats or 900 OPS after 60 at-bats. 800 OPS after 120 at-bats in AAA would give you good confidence that he can hit with a 700 OPS in MLB.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I completely understand that issue and that Lee has to develop his craft against lefties. Is there any data that can support getting that specific development in AAA vs. MLB if all other developmental factors point to an MLB promotion is in order? 

I'd think the biggest factor is the MLB team's willingness to let that development actually happen. This current regime isn't exactly famous for letting young players work on weakside platoon problems at the big league level. Not that that would or should stop him from being promoted, but there's a very real chance he wouldn't get frequent opportunities to develop that skill if he were promoted to the Twins and they had an option to platoon him.

[Fatbat]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd think the biggest factor is the MLB team's willingness to let that development actually happen. This current regime isn't exactly famous for letting young players work on weakside platoon problems at the big league level. Not that that would or should stop him from being promoted, but there's a very real chance he wouldn't get frequent opportunities to develop that skill if he were promoted to the Twins and they had an option to platoon him.

I agree.  Julien also has issues hitting lefties but its a different metric since Julien isn't a switch hitter. 

[terrydactyls]

If Lee is ready sometime in 2024, Lewis could be moved to left field and solve a plethora of problems.  I would hope he sees some time in the outfield during spring training.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

I agree.  Julien also has issues hitting lefties but its a different metric since Julien isn't a switch hitter. 

I actually don't really care much about switch hitter vs non-switch hitter. Either you can hit against a certain armed pitcher or you can't. A switch hitter who OPS's .603 against lefties is no more useful than a lefty who puts up a .603 OPS against lefties. Standing in the other batter's box when you get out doesn't mean anything to me. Cedric Mullens being a good example of this. Couldn't hit lefties as a righty so just stopped hitting righty and locked in his 1 swing. I'm not saying Lee shouldn't switch hit, just that I don't separate switch hitters vs non-switch hitters when it comes to platoon splits. And I'd hope the Twins don't either. If what you care about is the platoon split you shouldn't care about which batter's box they stand in. The actual split is all that matters.

[Fatbat]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I actually don't really care much about switch hitter vs non-switch hitter. Either you can hit against a certain armed pitcher or you can't. A switch hitter who OPS's .603 against lefties is no more useful than a lefty who puts up a .603 OPS against lefties. Standing in the other batter's box when you get out doesn't mean anything to me. Cedric Mullens being a good example of this. Couldn't hit lefties as a righty so just stopped hitting righty and locked in his 1 swing. I'm not saying Lee shouldn't switch hit, just that I don't separate switch hitters vs non-switch hitters when it comes to platoon splits. And I'd hope the Twins don't either. If what you care about is the platoon split you shouldn't care about which batter's box they stand in. The actual split is all that matters.

Great point. So they both should have spent the off season focusing on hitting lefties.  Its not easy when you may or may not get to face a lefty in real games on a regular basis.  Hopefully there is some major training/development going on in the batting cages/hitting lab in fort myers.

[jmlease1]

10 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If Lee is ready sometime in 2024, Lewis could be moved to left field and solve a plethora of problems.  I would hope he sees some time in the outfield during spring training.

It's not going to happen. No matter how many times it comes up as an idea on TD to send Royce Lewis to the OF, they're not going to do it unless he shows that he can't handle playing infield. They've been very clear about it (and frankly, they're not wrong: not that easy to find guys who can lock in at 3B and play well on both sides of the ball) so why is it that it keeps coming up? they're not moving Royce off 3B to make room for Brooks Lee, no matter how highly they think of him.

I expect we'll see Brooks Lee this season, because it's just damn hard to keep everyone off the IL. If there's an injury at 2B, 3B, or SS I expect he'll be the first call up unless something happens at AAA that no one sees coming. No complaints from me; he's literally in his 2nd full season of pro ball.

Which is also why I don't worry so much about him having a little bit of a blip at AAA last season: he made AAA in his first full pro season! He's moved aggressively up the ranks, and shown out well everywhere except for 38 games at AAA, in a season where he played 30+ more games in a season than he'd ever done in his life. I'll bet after seeing what it takes to grind through 120+ games in a season he'll be more prepared for it.

He looks like the kind of player that's always going to be good, and can have years where he's contending for an all-star. yes, please.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Great point. So they both should have spent the off season focusing on hitting lefties.  Its not easy when you may or may not get to face a lefty in real games on a regular basis.  Hopefully there is some major teaining going on in the batting cages/hitting lab in fort myers.

Julien feels like the type of lefty who should have a great chance to be successful against southpaws because his eye is so good. You'd certainly hope extended exposure to them would allow him to be really successful and nullify that platoon split. Both of them seem like the kind of kids who put in the work to be as good as they can be. Really excited to see what the future holds for both of them.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You never know the future.....like holding Strasburg out to rest him his rookie year! You take the chance to win when you have it, because the M&M boys might get injured and your long term plans can be shot.

That said.....he won't be, and they shouldn't make decisions on ST stats, IMO. 

My feeling is that this board vastly undervalues Lee (not the rankers, clearly) and he will be much better in AAA than most here expect. He'll also waste most of the year there, and unless they move Lewis to the OF or Julien to first/in a trade, he'll never give the Twins all the value he can because others will be blocking him. 

I know I've been the low guy on Lee, but this really is biggest thing where I'm at with him because I still think he'll be a decent at worst MLB player. Planning on an injury for a guy to get regular playing time, isn't really much of a plan.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not going to happen. No matter how many times it comes up as an idea on TD to send Royce Lewis to the OF, they're not going to do it unless he shows that he can't handle playing infield. They've been very clear about it (and frankly, they're not wrong: not that easy to find guys who can lock in at 3B and play well on both sides of the ball) so why is it that it keeps coming up? they're not moving Royce off 3B to make room for Brooks Lee, no matter how highly they think of him.

I expect we'll see Brooks Lee this season, because it's just damn hard to keep everyone off the IL. If there's an injury at 2B, 3B, or SS I expect he'll be the first call up unless something happens at AAA that no one sees coming. No complaints from me; he's literally in his 2nd full season of pro ball.

Which is also why I don't worry so much about him having a little bit of a blip at AAA last season: he made AAA in his first full pro season! He's moved aggressively up the ranks, and shown out well everywhere except for 38 games at AAA, in a season where he played 30+ more games in a season than he'd ever done in his life. I'll bet after seeing what it takes to grind through 120+ games in a season he'll be more prepared for it.

He looks like the kind of player that's always going to be good, and can have years where he's contending for an all-star. yes, please.

Royce was on MLB Network last week and mentioned he didn't necessarily have "positional clarity" yet. "You know I still don't think it's full clarity, but it's a little bit more than I had last year. You know, if you're an athlete you can always make adjustments." I don't think we should be so certain he's never moving off 3B. He certainly didn't sound certain.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Royce was on MLB Network last week and mentioned he didn't necessarily have "positional clarity" yet. "You know I still don't think it's full clarity, but it's a little bit more than I had last year. You know, if you're an athlete you can always make adjustments." I don't think we should be so certain he's never moving off 3B. He certainly didn't sound certain.

The fact that he sounds willing is quite encouraging, even if he never plays another game off of 3B in his life.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Royce was on MLB Network last week and mentioned he didn't necessarily have "positional clarity" yet. "You know I still don't think it's full clarity, but it's a little bit more than I had last year. You know, if you're an athlete you can always make adjustments." I don't think we should be so certain he's never moving off 3B. He certainly didn't sound certain.

fascinating. Truly. Moving him to LF and Wallner to RF does so much for this team long term (I don't think they'll put Lee in the majors ASAP this year).....

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The fact that he sounds willing is quite encouraging, even if he never plays another game off of 3B in his life.

 

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

fascinating. Truly. Moving him to LF and Wallner to RF does so much for this team long term (I don't think they'll put Lee in the majors ASAP this year).....

It was really interesting to hear him say that. Amsinger (the host of the Top 100 show) suggested it's going to be really helpful to have positional clarity now and that was Royce's response. I'd guess the messaging from the Twins is that the plan is to keep him at 3B for the foreseeable future, but they aren't closing the door on other options. Royce in the OF would be a potentially very helpful move from a roster construction point of view. My guess would be it very much depends on which of the prospects make it and then they re-think the positions in another year or 2 as they have a better feel for who deserves everyday jobs. It's possible Lee eventually takes over 3B, though. Or SS with Carlos moving over depending on the timing of things. I very much like the thought of Correa, Julien, Kirilloff, and Lee all being what we want them to be so the idea of moving Lewis comes up. That could be a really nice top 5 in a lineup before you even factor in the OF possibilities.

[jmlease1]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The fact that he sounds willing is quite encouraging, even if he never plays another game off of 3B in his life.

I do think Royce is one of those guys who would always be willing, even if his preference might be different. Hey, Royce, would you be ok covering SS for Carlos? "You bet!" Yo, Royce: we need a 1B today, can you help the club out? "Just find me the glove!" Royce, we need you to catch a doubleheader today because everyone has the flu, you got this? "Heck yeah, glad you asked me!"

I love Royce Lewis. So I could be projecting. But I kinda don't think so.

That said, I really think the Twins want him to just play 3B this year and stay healthy. Brooks Lee will get his chance. I think he's too skilled not to. (and injuries will take guys off the field)

[Fatbat]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

fascinating. Truly. Moving him to LF and Wallner to RF does so much for this team long term (I don't think they'll put Lee in the majors ASAP this year).....

An easier move would be to put Julien at DH and sort out Lewis, Lee and C4 in the IF.  The outfield is going to be crowded with Wallner, Buxton, Jenkins, AK, erod, Martin in 25/26/27.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I see Julien also played about 20 games in the OF in A ball. He hasn't been back to the OF. Does anybody know how he performed as an OFer? Since the team hasn't pursued it, was he bad there? As for Lewis,no doubt he would be very good in the OF as he is where ever he plays. I guess my one and only concern for him as an OFer would be the holdup of his knees. He too has a few games in the OF under his belt.

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

An easier move would be to put Julien at DH and sort out Lewis, Lee and C4 in the IF.  The outfield is going to be crowded with Wallner, Buxton, Jenkins, AK, erod, Martin in 25/26/27.

Not to mention Winokur and J Rod further down the pipe. Both of these are also very intriguing prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I see Julien also played about 20 games in the OF in A ball. He hasn't been back to the OF. Does anybody know how he performed as an OFer? Since the team hasn't pursued it, was he bad there? As for Lewis,no doubt he would be very good in the OF as he is where ever he plays. I guess my one and only concern for him as an OFer would be the holdup of his knees. He too has a few games in the OF under his belt.

Not well.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

An easier move would be to put Julien at DH and sort out Lewis, Lee and C4 in the IF.  The outfield is going to be crowded with Wallner, Buxton, Jenkins, AK, erod, Martin in 25/26/27.

I'd do everything I could not to clog up the DH spot, especially for a 24 year old.

I mean, having too many good young players is a good thing assuming the team would leverage them for an area of need.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

An easier move would be to put Julien at DH and sort out Lewis, Lee and C4 in the IF.  The outfield is going to be crowded with Wallner, Buxton, Jenkins, AK, erod, Martin in 25/26/27.

DH or 1B, I agree. The other option is to trade another infielder next winter.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks, Steve, great article. As I've said before Lee is very valuable in the near Twins' future helping to cement the INF with his bat, glove & his general understanding of the game. When he's ready he'll have no competition. Any thought of trading him would highly compromise the integrity of that future INF. I love Luzardo but I wouldn't trade Lee for him. Lee has a very bright future with the Twins

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

If Lee is ready sometime in 2024, Lewis could be moved to left field and solve a plethora of problems.  I would hope he sees some time in the outfield during spring training.

I can see a possibility for '25 of moving AK to left or trading him, depending on how '24 goes. That would open 1st for Julian and Lee at 2nd. Of course that holds up Jenkins if he's ready, so then they would need some sort of DH rotation.

[sweetmusicviola16]

33 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I do think Royce is one of those guys who would always be willing, even if his preference might be different. Hey, Royce, would you be ok covering SS for Carlos? "You bet!" Yo, Royce: we need a 1B today, can you help the club out? "Just find me the glove!" Royce, we need you to catch a doubleheader today because everyone has the flu, you got this? "Heck yeah, glad you asked me!"

I love Royce Lewis. So I could be projecting. But I kinda don't think so.

That said, I really think the Twins want him to just play 3B this year and stay healthy. Brooks Lee will get his chance. I think he's too skilled not to. (and injuries will take guys off the field)

A guy that can hit .300 and hit 35 plus HR's who could play every IF and every OF position. And play them all at an All Star level. Imagine that kind of player. Royce could be that player. 

[terrydactyls]

There is a lot of talk about moving Julien (and others) to DH.  Anyone know the current under/over for games Buxton plays CF?  He is going to be the primary DH.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, terrydactyls said:

There is a lot of talk about moving Julien (and others) to DH.  Anyone know the current under/over for games Buxton plays CF?  He is going to be the primary DH.

I'm sure he'll play some DH (more than we'd want too) but Buxton and the Twins sound pretty confident he's going to be the primary CF this year.

[terrydactyls]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm sure he'll play some DH (more than we'd want too) but Buxton and the Twins sound pretty confident he's going to be the primary CF this year.

And I have some prime ocean-front property in Kansas that I can sell for a reasonable price.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not going to happen. No matter how many times it comes up as an idea on TD to send Royce Lewis to the OF, they're not going to do it unless he shows that he can't handle playing infield. They've been very clear about it (and frankly, they're not wrong: not that easy to find guys who can lock in at 3B and play well on both sides of the ball) so why is it that it keeps coming up? they're not moving Royce off 3B to make room for Brooks Lee, no matter how highly they think of him.

I expect we'll see Brooks Lee this season, because it's just damn hard to keep everyone off the IL. If there's an injury at 2B, 3B, or SS I expect he'll be the first call up unless something happens at AAA that no one sees coming. No complaints from me; he's literally in his 2nd full season of pro ball.

Which is also why I don't worry so much about him having a little bit of a blip at AAA last season: he made AAA in his first full pro season! He's moved aggressively up the ranks, and shown out well everywhere except for 38 games at AAA, in a season where he played 30+ more games in a season than he'd ever done in his life. I'll bet after seeing what it takes to grind through 120+ games in a season he'll be more prepared for it.

He looks like the kind of player that's always going to be good, and can have years where he's contending for an all-star. yes, please.

Bravo Jmlease! We have a lot of very good to great prospects coming up to play the OF why are so many fans who are so bent on putting Lewis in the OF? In the INF we have Correa, Lewis & soon to be Lee in the INF that's it and we don't have anyone else in our organization who comes close to their talent to take their jobs away, 

 

 

[jkcarew]

I think the point with Lee's numbers from the right side is that 1) they were really bad as he faced the higher-level pitchers in AA and AAA in 2023....and 2) you don't want him on the big club failing against lefties...and 3) I don't think you want him on the big club platooning, not yet anyway. Give him a chance to make some adjustment in St. Paul.

The right-side numbers are downplayed in the article. They were really bad. Power way less than from the left side...and K/BB ratio spectacularly worse than from the left side...to the point where, if the trend continues, you'd definitely have to question why he bothers switch-hitting. Moreover, if you youtube him, tell me that that bat doesn't seem slower from the right-hand side. (Note that the 'good' right-side results in 2022 included 24 total PA, and mostly single-A pitching.)

I'm not suggesting the wait needs to be a couple of years...or even one year. But there should be at least a little more work (and data) so you know how the issue is trending and have a better handle on how he should be used when you bring him up.

Also, agree that this team is probably better (particularly, after Lee comes up) if Lewis is in the outfield. (And also if Jeffers is somehow getting more AB's)

As for 'positional certainty'....I'm not buying even 5% of that. Harmon Killebrew had about 500 career home-runs...switching back and forth between 1st, 3rd, and LF, from year to year and game to game...before 'positional certainty' set in. Pete Rose, Ben Zobrist…and Lewis better suited athletically than those. Unless of course, if somehow deemed detrimental to his health by he, his agent, and/or the club.

Just hit, Royce.

[Fatbat]

23 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

There is a lot of talk about moving Julien (and others) to DH.  Anyone know the current under/over for games Buxton plays CF?  He is going to be the primary DH.

The floor is probably 80. If Buck is 100% healthy ALL season long. LOL. I will take a way over and say 147 in CF. 

[tony&rodney]

Couple of random thoughts based on comments.

Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis rightfully get major love on Twins Daily; the comments all expect them to be superstars. That would be sweet, but it may be a big load to carry.

The Twins were lucky to move up in the draft and then have Miami skip over Brooks Lee at #7 so that the Twins could call his name as the #8 pick. Lee has a bright future. Who knows, he could be ready by April or May this year. It is a good problem to have and players  have to earn their way. 

Julien should improve versus left-handed pitching. I wonder how many lefties Julien faced from the age of 14 to 22 years old? Are there many LH pitchers in Quebec and did he play baseball year around? Julien made massive strides in his fielding and he mentioned in interviews that fielding has only been a focus recently, from him and his coaches. The lateral quickness is there. Julien is athletic, but clearly lacked the repetitions. Whether the Twins trade him or move him to another position, it would be a mistake to use him as a DH. Julien is fine at second base.

I'm a little confused by the comments downplaying Carlos Correa, a player with 40.9 WAR thus far in his career. He is still young (29) and played nearly all of last season with plantar fasciitis. Lewis and Lee will have to average more than 6 WAR per season from right now to reach Correa's marks at a similar age. I hope they do. Lee will never have the arm, the accuracy, or the mechanical excellence of Correa in the field. Lee is a really fine shortstop and could make an MLB All Star team as a shortstop, but unless injuries suddenly diminish Correa it would be a mistake to downgrade the position in the near future. Ask a veteran scout about Correa versus Lee as shortstops. You'll get the eye, and scouts like Lee.

Lucky for us, we don't have to make any decisions about who gets traded, moved to a new position, or moved aside. Hopefully these guys maintain competitive health throughout the year and we can watch them succeed.