Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #2 Brooks Lee, SS

[DocBauer]

A lot to cover, so I'm going to do so in a single post instead of multiple replies.

1} Not worried about him hitting LHP until/unless he just proves he can't. He was actually better against them the season before. Consider he only faces them probably 25% of the time, part of the difference from one season to the next could be luck in BABIP.

2} Where's he going to play when he comes up? Wherever they need him, lol. But seriously, he could legitimately play all 4 spots, but 1B would be a waste at this point. Royce stays at 3B because he's looking just fine there, and they'd probably rather have the guy with 2 knee surgeries at 3B instead of 2B. For that reason, Lee will go to 2B where he'd probably get Gold Glove mention a year or two here and there. Correa is at SS for the next few years. Lewis and Lee can both cover SS when Correa needs time off, as can Farmer for now, as can Castro. Julien will play some 2B, 1B, and DH. If something(s) continue to plague Kirilloff, Julien might even be a full time 1B. Next year, with Farmer probably gone, the INF situation still looks good. Miranda might play 3B/1B/DH, Severino might push Miranda out of the picture. Prato and Helman are super utility types that might get a shot sometime this season and stick. And Schobel and Keaschaal might only be a year or year and a half away from further depth.

So yeah, the INF is in great shape for the next several years. So MAYBE Lewis moves to LF, Wallner goes to RF and there's even more room in the INF. In that case, Julien might just sick at 2B and Lee moves to 3B. But it's also easier to find good OF rather than a good INF. And within the next couple years, Emma, Rosario, and Jenkins will be up. Oh, and Martin is up sometime this year playing CF/LF/maybe some 2B, and could/should end up as a top of the lineup fixture with Julien.

Still want Lewis in the OF?

3} I don't think a comp of Lee to Polanco is that far off. A healthy Polanco HIT, took BB, didn't K much, and was a legit 30 Dbls 20HR guy. Lee might turn out to be a better version of Polanco...I liked the reference to more "Mauer" in him...but it's not a poor comparison at all.

4} I don't believe Lee breaks camp unless there are big injury issues. And it's not about service time. It's about just not needing to promote him yet, remove someone from the 40, and press the issue when you don't have to. The Twins INF looks really, really good as is for the moment. 

Martin MIGHT be that 13th man, but I'm doubting it right now. The FO doesn't like to remove depth, and they don't like to make instant room for a prospect as they know it will happen organically. While they waited too damn long to bring up Wallner, both he and Julien got their shot, got it again and stuck. And for a team with playoff aspirations, why push a kid...even if you really, really like him...with 1/3 of a AAA season when you can acquire a veteran bat inexpensively to at least begin the season with?

Right now, guys like Taylor, Duvall, Pham, and Grichuk are all probably settling for 1 year deals from $5M to $8M max. Yes, I'd be very interested in Soler on a bigger 2yr deal for around $12-13M per, I'm just not sure it's going to happen. And if it's not, how about Taylor to play all 3 OF spots and provide speed and a little pop? Now you have even more depth behind Buxton. The other 3 options are corner OF to spell Wallner and Kepler and PH. Deepens the team, provides a veteran RH bat, offers more lineup flexibility, especially against LHP. Not enough $ investment to cry over if you move on from someone. Martin can still come up whenever you need him or want him, and he gets a little more AAA time after an abbreviated 2023.

Can't wait to see what Lee's going to do! But I don't think he breaks camp with the club.

 

[wabene]

Put me in the camp that it would be better roster management to have Lewis in left than Julien at DH. Julien can handle second well and he will show it this season. The only time I would do a full-time DH is if you have a guy like Nelson Cruz. Guys like Nelson Cruz do not come along often. 

The Twins have added needed prospect depth to the outfield in the last year. That depth is a ways away. For now if all the infield talent shows, it makes sense to consider moving one of them to the outfield to get them all at bats. Kepler is likely gone next year and an outfield from left to right of Lewis, Buxton and Wallner makes sense. Now, of course, how all this sorts out will be fun to watch. 

[roger]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Julien feels like the type of lefty who should have a great chance to be successful against southpaws because his eye is so good. You'd certainly hope extended exposure to them would allow him to be really successful and nullify that platoon split. Both of them seem like the kind of kids who put in the work to be as good as they can be. Really excited to see what the future holds for both of them.

I am  hopeful that both Julien and AK get lots of abs against lefties this spring.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

A lot to cover, so I'm going to do so in a single post instead of multiple replies.

1} Not worried about him hitting LHP until/unless he just proves he can't. He was actually better against them the season before. Consider he only faces them probably 25% of the time, part of the difference from one season to the next could be luck in BABIP.

2} Where's he going to play when he comes up? Wherever they need him, lol. But seriously, he could legitimately play all 4 spots, but 1B would be a waste at this point. Royce stays at 3B because he's looking just fine there, and they'd probably rather have the guy with 2 knee surgeries at 3B instead of 2B. For that reason, Lee will go to 2B where he'd probably get Gold Glove mention a year or two here and there. Correa is at SS for the next few years. Lewis and Lee can both cover SS when Correa needs time off, as can Farmer for now, as can Castro. Julien will play some 2B, 1B, and DH. If something(s) continue to plague Kirilloff, Julien might even be a full time 1B. Next year, with Farmer probably gone, the INF situation still looks good. Miranda might play 3B/1B/DH, Severino might push Miranda out of the picture. Prato and Helman are super utility types that might get a shot sometime this season and stick. And Schobel and Keaschaal might only be a year or year and a half away from further depth.

So yeah, the INF is in great shape for the next several years. So MAYBE Lewis moves to LF, Wallner goes to RF and there's even more room in the INF. In that case, Julien might just sick at 2B and Lee moves to 3B. But it's also easier to find good OF rather than a good INF. And within the next couple years, Emma, Rosario, and Jenkins will be up. Oh, and Martin is up sometime this year playing CF/LF/maybe some 2B, and could/should end up as a top of the lineup fixture with Julien.

Still want Lewis in the OF?

3} I don't think a comp of Lee to Polanco is that far off. A healthy Polanco HIT, took BB, didn't K much, and was a legit 30 Dbls 20HR guy. Lee might turn out to be a better version of Polanco...I liked the reference to more "Mauer" in him...but it's not a poor comparison at all.

4} I don't believe Lee breaks camp unless there are big injury issues. And it's not about service time. It's about just not needing to promote him yet, remove someone from the 40, and press the issue when you don't have to. The Twins INF looks really, really good as is for the moment. 

Martin MIGHT be that 13th man, but I'm doubting it right now. The FO doesn't like to remove depth, and they don't like to make instant room for a prospect as they know it will happen organically. While they waited too damn long to bring up Wallner, both he and Julien got their shot, got it again and stuck. And for a team with playoff aspirations, why push a kid...even if you really, really like him...with 1/3 of a AAA season when you can acquire a veteran bat inexpensively to at least begin the season with?

Right now, guys like Taylor, Duvall, Pham, and Grichuk are all probably settling for 1 year deals from $5M to $8M max. Yes, I'd be very interested in Soler on a bigger 2yr deal for around $12-13M per, I'm just not sure it's going to happen. And if it's not, how about Taylor to play all 3 OF spots and provide speed and a little pop? Now you have even more depth behind Buxton. The other 3 options are corner OF to spell Wallner and Kepler and PH. Deepens the team, provides a veteran RH bat, offers more lineup flexibility, especially against LHP. Not enough $ investment to cry over if you move on from someone. Martin can still come up whenever you need him or want him, and he gets a little more AAA time after an abbreviated 2023.

Can't wait to see what Lee's going to do! But I don't think he breaks camp with the club.

 

Because you never get rid of the mediocre veteran, and the prospect sits in the minors. If there's an injury, they just send the guy back down when the veteran is healthy. You need multiple injuries for Martin to play more than a few games if you sign MAT or similar. 

[DocBauer]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because you never get rid of the mediocre veteran, and the prospect sits in the minors. If there's an injury, they just send the guy back down when the veteran is healthy. You need multiple injuries for Martin to play more than a few games if you sign MAT or similar. 

I don't completely disagree with you. And the Twins were wrong to keep Wallner down as long as they did. But I think they handled Julien fine. In previous examples, they handled AK and Lewis just fine as well. And they certainly gave Larnach multiple chances previously.

Hey, I have real hope for Martin. I'm really anxious to see him and see what he can do and what he might become. His floor is a useful utility player. His ceiling is a daily lineup regular, even if he plays multiple spots, who hits at the top of the lineup with Julien, setting the table and producing.

I'm excited about his breakout in the AFL, and a solid 1/3 of the season last year in AAA. But his injury limited him to 1/3 of a season. And the Twins have a chance to add a useful RH bat...different options/directions to go...to help against LHP, which has been a thorn in their side for a few years now.

I think the FO really likes Martin. But I think they think, and me too I guess, that hitting more than .250-ish for a third of the season he got, would firmly show he's ready. Injuries happen. Guys are brought up. Again, look at Julien last year. He came up, got sent down, came up again and never went back. And if we go back in time, we can see other past prospects who followed that same path.

My point being, he's right on the cusp. But why not give him just a little more time to refine his game, get a little more experience at the highest milb level, and spend some $ that they have for another solid veteran for now? He's going to play with the Twins this year. And he very likely ends up playing a lot when all is said and done. 

I just look at it, being Martin in this case, with a little more conservative view. Had he raked and hit .280-.300 last year, my viewpoint might be a little different than it is today. IF he makes the club opening day and struggles, and needs to be sent down again, where is your depth? Who replaces him? I DON'T want another Gallo repeat situation. But I also want the best talent we can have on the roster opening day.

We both like Martin. We're just looking at building the roster from slightly different angles.

[jorgenswest]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That said.....he won't be, and they shouldn't make decisions on ST stats, IMO. 

Absolutely agree.

I also believe what they see with their eyes in spring training should be an important factor in decision. They need to rely on their trained eyes as they watch players in the spring and make wise decisions.

[jorgenswest]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

My feeling is that this board vastly undervalues Lee (not the rankers, clearly) and he will be much better in AAA than most here expect. He'll also waste most of the year there, and unless they move Lewis to the OF or Julien to first/in a trade, he'll never give the Twins all the value he can because others will be blocking him. 

I do fear that the decision to bring in decline phase veterans like Farmer, Santana and possibly a right handed bat will result in the Twins will be too slow to part with them if they have dropped in production.

I do trust the rankings. MLB.com has him ranked 18th overall. It is sobering though to go back 5 to 10 years and see that a number of players in that range failed to become significant major leaguers. 

[TNTwinsFan]

9 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Nice article, but I think there is one glaring omission.  If Lee's value is so high wouldn't he be more useful to the Twins as a trade piece to acquire a #1/2 starter.  I've seen mention that the Marlins in particular need a SS and thus Lee could very well be sufficient(or with minor additions) to nab Luzardo.  With the Twins supposedly in a win-now mode, doesn't it make sense for the FO to explore such a deal now?

There is no clear position for Lee with Lewis, Correa, and Julien set.  Julien might substitute for Lee but the latter would generate much more interest as a SS.  I would hate to lose Lee but if the Twins want to be serious contenders for WS players, this is exactly the type of trade they should be making!

I'm not on here enough these days to know whether I'm leading or just on the "trade-Lee-for-high-end-pitching" bandwagon, but, the Twins should consider trading Lee for high end pitching. Obviously, it's a wildly unpopular view, but, I doubt his trade value will get much higher than right now. As you mentioned, the Marlins seem like a great fit. I'd be asking for Garrett and would be willing to add an OF or Pitching prospect in the 15-25 range to get him.

For that matter, I'd be willing to shop our #3 and #3.5 prospects as well. Hell, add one of them to the above deal (plus others I'd assume) and have them add a Luzardo-type. They trade from surplus, and we trade from surplus.

Man, armchair-GMing is easy!

[TNTwinsFan]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Couple of random thoughts based on comments.

Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis rightfully get major love on Twins Daily; the comments all expect them to be superstars. That would be sweet, but it may be a big load to carry.

The Twins were lucky to move up in the draft and then have Miami skip over Brooks Lee at #7 so that the Twins could call his name as the #8 pick. Lee has a bright future. Who knows, he could be ready by April or May this year. It is a good problem to have and players  have to earn their way. 

Julien should improve versus left-handed pitching. I wonder how many lefties Julien faced from the age of 14 to 22 years old? Are there many LH pitchers in Quebec and did he play baseball year around? Julien made massive strides in his fielding and he mentioned in interviews that fielding has only been a focus recently, from him and his coaches. The lateral quickness is there. Julien is athletic, but clearly lacked the repetitions. Whether the Twins trade him or move him to another position, it would be a mistake to use him as a DH. Julien is fine at second base.

I'm a little confused by the comments downplaying Carlos Correa, a player with 40.9 WAR thus far in his career. He is still young (29) and played nearly all of last season with plantar fasciitis. Lewis and Lee will have to average more than 6 WAR per season from right now to reach Correa's marks at a similar age. I hope they do. Lee will never have the arm, the accuracy, or the mechanical excellence of Correa in the field. Lee is a really fine shortstop and could make an MLB All Star team as a shortstop, but unless injuries suddenly diminish Correa it would be a mistake to downgrade the position in the near future. Ask a veteran scout about Correa versus Lee as shortstops. You'll get the eye, and scouts like Lee.

Lucky for us, we don't have to make any decisions about who gets traded, moved to a new position, or moved aside. Hopefully these guys maintain competitive health throughout the year and we can watch them succeed.

And this is why I think the time to trade Lee is now.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm a little confused by the comments downplaying Carlos Correa, a player with 40.9 WAR thus far in his career. He is still young (29) and played nearly all of last season with plantar fasciitis. Lewis and Lee will have to average more than 6 WAR per season from right now to reach Correa's marks at a similar age. I hope they do. Lee will never have the arm, the accuracy, or the mechanical excellence of Correa in the field. Lee is a really fine shortstop and could make an MLB All Star team as a shortstop, but unless injuries suddenly diminish Correa it would be a mistake to downgrade the position in the near future. Ask a veteran scout about Correa versus Lee as shortstops. You'll get the eye, and scouts like Lee.

I think Correa is terrific. He's also taking up 25% of the Twins' tiny budget and is one of the few players who would return elite starting pitching talent in a trade.

[Trov]

The splits right versus left is not as big of a deal as people might try to make. That is mainly due to just SSS.  If it carries into next year then maybe there is an issue there.  However, at 104 at bats, if he gets a few hits over his next 10 at bats his numbers will jump up a bit. I am not concerned yet, but will be something to look at down the road.  Also, many switch hitters will flip flop from one season to next on which side is better. Just look at Polanco who was referenced, in 2023 he was better against lefties, in 2022 he was much better against righties, and in 2021 he was about even. For his career he has a better OBP against righties.  Point is one season of a lower number does not make him unable to hit from that side. 

[bird]

18 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Great point. So they both should have spent the off season focusing on hitting lefties.  Its not easy when you may or may not get to face a lefty in real games on a regular basis.  Hopefully there is some major training/development going on in the batting cages/hitting lab in fort myers.

Yeah, someone should invent a left-handed pitching machine.😏

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think Correa is terrific. He's also taking up 25% of the Twins' tiny budget and is one of the few players who would return elite starting pitching talent in a trade.

I cannot think of a single team that would trade a #1-2 starting pitcher for Correa. If the Twins truly felt the need to trade for a top of the rotation pitcher, Royce Lewis would already have been traded. Please propose any deal you think might work. 

Virtually every team in baseball will have one or two players on their team who make significantly more money than the pile of players earning from minimum to $5 million. Correa is the Twins best player and acknowledged leader. It is actually surprising to hear the glowing comments that grizzled vets like Sonny Gray made about Correa.

People need to ignore the money. Players work for far less than their financial worth for an organization until they reach the point where they can determine their own future. At that point, some team has an actuary advise the front office concerning a signing. Mauer had a big contract and despite people liking him better when he played for minimum, the Twins were never once pinched by that deal. Mauer made the team a ton of money. He still makes them money. Correa was Falvey's choice to earn the largest contract now. In a number of years it will be someone else. FWIW, Correa is not the player I most enjoy watching. I just recognize his value to the Twins.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I cannot think of a single team that would trade a #1-2 starting pitcher for Correa.

Then he's really not as good of a player as everyone says he is. You can't have it both ways. Either Correa is an elite talent or he's not. If he's not worth a highly paid #2 starting pitcher in trade then he's not an elite talent.

[Mike Sixel]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Then he's really not as good of a player as everyone says he is. You can't have it both ways. Either Correa is an elite talent or he's not. If he's not worth a highly paid #2 starting pitcher in trade then he's not an elite talent.

You'd have to find a team trying to win now, who had an elite pitcher they wanted to trade. That would be zero teams. It's not what any team would do. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Then he's really not as good of a player as everyone says he is. You can't have it both ways. Either Correa is an elite talent or he's not. If he's not worth a highly paid #2 starting pitcher in trade then he's not an elite talent.

He is an elite talent by consensus of virtually anyone in baseball. 

Is Juan Soto an elite talent? How about Shohei Ohtani? You get the point - there are elite talents whether you or somebody else decides to ignore a specific player. 

Now would the Twins trade Pablo Lopez for Soto, Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, etc.? Of course not. Money is real and teams won't make a trade for a super expensive player and give up a top of the rotation pitcher who costs very little. The Twins would not trade for Gerrit Cole because their budget does not allow it. The Twins decided to sign Kirby Puckett to the largest (at the time) contract in MLB, they signed Mauer, and they signed Correa. All of these guys are elite talents. You may not like Correa making money and Correa may have had a down year last season but neither of those change the reality of how baseball views Correa - he is elite. Now the Twins and their fans hope he has a great series of seasons strung together. 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

teams won't make a trade for a super expensive player and give up a top of the rotation pitcher who costs very little.

Why would the top of the rotation pitcher have to cost very little? The Twins would have $35M of payroll space available.

I grant that it isn't easy to find a match. The Twins would have to find a team with a big budget, a hole at SS and a desire to rebuild quickly. The Giants and Red Sox fit that description. They would need to get Correa to approve the trade. Then they would need to either allocate that money to a free agent like Snell or Montgomery or find a team who wants to trade an expensive, top of the rotation starter.

This all goes back to Brooks Lee. The Twins have a potential solution for a 2025 starting SS in AAA. They don't have anyone to take that spot at the top of the rotation sitting in the minor leagues.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Why would the top of the rotation pitcher have to cost very little? The Twins would have $35M of payroll space available.

I grant that it isn't easy to find a match. The Twins would have to find a team with a big budget, a hole at SS and a desire to rebuild quickly. The Giants and Red Sox fit that description. They would need to get Correa to approve the trade. Then they would need to either allocate that money to a free agent like Snell or Montgomery or find a team who wants to trade an expensive, top of the rotation starter.

This all goes back to Brooks Lee. The Twins have a potential solution for a 2025 starting SS in AAA. They don't have anyone to take that spot at the top of the rotation sitting in the minor leagues.

I don't know where you are coming from. I will merely give some information that we know with mild speculation.

The Giants tried to sign Correa for more money than the Twins signed him for. Insurance did not sign off for SF, it did for MN. Why? I don't know the details. The Giants now have a prospect just like Lee, Marco Luciano. The Giants are not looking for a shortstop at this time.

The Red Sox would not pay their former shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) to a long term contract because Marcelo Mayer is a top ten global prospect, considered the best fielder shortstop prospect among all shortstop prospects. The Red Sox have zero interest in other shortstops.

Correa has a no trade contract. These are very difficult and rarely given up, usually only for a much better deal.

Unlike most scouts and talent evaluators I believe that it is possible for Brooks Lee to play shortstop in MLB.  He is most suited for third base. Absolutely no one would predict Lee to be near as good as Correa at shortstop.

On pitching, here is where you and others may grievously disagree, the Twins have a top of the rotation pitcher in Pablo Lopez. Behind him are Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack with DeSclafani available. Numerous sites have ranked the Twins starting pitching anywhere from top 4-9 in baseball. David Festa is a year away and Marco Raya another year behind him with plenty of other arms developing in the system.

The Twins have never signed a top free agent pitcher and I'm not even interested in either Snell or Montgomery unless they want to play for $10 million on a one year deal. I'm sure open to trades for any of Luzardo, Kirby, or Gilbert. Do you believe the Twins will trade Royce Lewis and/or Brooks Lee? That would be the price.

Brooks Lee will get an opportunity to play major league baseball. The team and position are still unknown, but openings occur in a myriad of fashions. An example .... many have called for Lewis to be moved to the outfield. I don't expect that, but an injury or need could arise and perhaps against all odds Lewis is needed on the grass. If Lee has impressed and shown that he is primed and ready to play with the big boys .... poof, he is our new third baseman. Stuff happens, just not trades of key players who have huge contracts that include a no trade clause. This we can all be certain of, right?