The 2019 Move That Enabled the Jorge Polanco Trade

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins’ longest-tenured player was traded on Monday for a return of four players. However, the Twins put themselves in a position to decide what to do with him on their terms way back in 2019.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

You, personally, might have an opinion on the return for Jorge Polanco. Maybe it was a good deal; maybe the Twins were too concerned with shedding salary. Maybe it’s the worst deal since the Tommy Herr trade. Whatever your stance on it, though, in most situations, the Twins wouldn’t have had a chance to move him and recoup any value at all.

Polanco surpassed six years of service time in 2022. Generally, a player who reaches six years of service will be a free agent. He may be subject to a qualifying offer, but the team cannot force him to accept it. In one of the most underrated extensions in recent baseball history, the Twins signed Polanco to a deal before his age-25 season in 2019—a year he started at shortstop in the All-Star Game. The guaranteed sum for Polanco was $25.75 million over five years, an average of a meager $5.15 million per season.

Polanco had yet to reach arbitration, meaning he was still making approximately $500,000 per year, even though he had already spent parts of five seasons with the Twins. That contract gave him a raise to $3,583,333 in 2019, but it was also guaranteed to be under Twins control through 2023, a year past the point that he would otherwise have become a free agent.

It may have been partly due to the guaranteed, life-changing money for the Dominican native. It may have also been related to his 2018 PED suspension, and general uncertainty. It could be because he had been in the Twins organization since he was 16 years old. There are likely other reasons, but Derek Falvey made a bet on his young shortstop, and it paid off for him.

Max Kepler, who was also part of the 2009 international amateur signing class—along with Miguel Sanó—signed a similar deal at the same time. Both contracts paid off to different degrees, but this story is about Polanco.

Polanco played 544 games during his five-year contract and hit .268/.337/.458, for a 117 OPS+. If you’re a WAR person, playing shortstop, second base, and third base to different extents, he accumulated 14.5 rWAR and 11.4 fWAR (worth over $90,000,000 no matter how it’s calculated), as compared to the $25,750,000 he was paid.

That value would be a victory in itself, especially considering that he played for an extra year at a reasonable $7,500,000 contract in 2023, a number he surely would have surpassed on the open market. However, the most significant stroke was the additional two years of team options. (Technically, Polanco could have forced the team to retain him if he reached 550 plate appearances, but that’s also in the team’s control—he didn’t choose how much he played.)

Those two option years, worth $10.5 million and $12 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, gave the team incredible flexibility. Both sums are likely less than what Polanco would get on the free market, but they also retained the ability to be flexible in how they handled him.

It’s fitting, really. Polanco has provided flexibility on the field his whole career. He’s played shortstop, willingly moved to second base to make room for Andrelton Simmons and later Carlos Correa, and he volunteered to cover third base in 2023—a 30-year-old veteran making room for the man who would eventually replace him. He switch-hits and has batted in every batting order spot (but primarily second, third, and leadoff).

And yet, at the end of his Twins career, he provided more flexibility. No, he didn’t reach the end of the contract with the Twins, but most baseball decision-makers would tell you that that’s not an issue. This trade wouldn’t have been possible had he never signed an extension. He would already be playing elsewhere.

The sad reality is that front offices are constantly playing a value game, trying to keep as much talent in the organization as possible. Sometimes, that requires selling high. Sometimes, that requires moving on before the player is no longer valuable, whether based on them leaving the team in free agency or their production diminishing. The Rays are notorious for selling off the back end of their larger contracts, for instance, even if the player is still producing.

However, Polanco’s situation was nearly perfect for the Twins. If he had bottomed out—if the injuries had caught up to him, if the bat had slowed, whatever—they could wash their hands of him. If they truly needed him on the field—if there was no Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis—he would have been a fine option, retaining his role. However, the Twins were in a position to move him with a controllable contract that the Mariners could also wash their hands of after 2024.

But had they not struck a deal in 2019, none of that would have been relevant. Polanco would be playing second base for, I don’t know, maybe even the Mariners. But the Twins would have nothing to show for it. Sometimes pre-arbitration extensions backfire, but this one paid off. Even at the moment, it was entirely sensible. It’s a victory that the Twins had a decision to make in the first place.

I wish it didn’t have to be. I was hoping for a rotation of five good infielders patrolling the dirt (and also warming a spot for Lee) in 2024. I wish that the payroll wasn’t something you, me, or my cousin Geoff needed to concern ourselves with. But good baseball teams make these types of moves and work within the confines they’re given.

So long, Jorge. And thanks for the parting gifts.

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[Brett]

That’s an excellent write up. Now I feel like I should have appreciated him more while he was here.

[Karbo]

Polo was a really good player and a great person. The Twins sure got their Moneys worth and then some. I wish him the best of luck!

[Eris]

The average MLB career is 5.6 years (I could not find the median). It makes sense for young players to secure their financial future. The value of Polanco’s contract can’t be taken in isolation. They also gave a similar contract to Kepler (which has turned out okay) and to Sano (who had a disappointing career). 

[arby58]

It's an interesting choice: contract for a sure $26 million or bet that you'll stay healthy, perform well, and perhaps make $90 million over time. I'd bet that most people would take the $26 million.

[Ctwink]

I agree with everything except the end of the article - Polanco was going to be moved this year whether the Twins had cut salary or not - his contract was just too valuable to not move to another team especially when the Twins have several IF options who are younger and cheaper.  I don't really like the return on the trade - it seems to me they could have done a 1 for 1 and gotten a GOOD starter - but you can't fault the Twins FO for getting four players including a Top 100 prospect for him.  If the Twins were the Yankees or Dodgers, we wouldn't be sitting here talking about this, but they aren't.

[Otaknam]

An excellent analysis of Polanco’s tenure with the Twins, truly a win/win. Remarkably, Polanco’s contract seems somewhat low now, But it was life changing for him and insured him against a possible a career ending injury or illness. Polanco will still be young enough to get another contract when this one is done, extending his career and banking decent baseball money. Meanwhile the team’s bet on Polanco paid off, with this trade bringing back some assets that should help the team this year and in the future. I especially like Gonzales’ potential as a right handed power hitter. 

[JD-TWINS]

Still think the rotation on the dirt is very solid……….can’t discount that even with his solid contributions in ‘23, he only played in 80 games - didn’t start in some - DHed in some. The infield did pretty well w/o him, not perfect.

Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff (Farmer/Miranda) & Castro in emergencies is a good group IMO.

Farmer is depth at SS & 3B for rest & he platoons at 2B.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Greggory. Polanco had the makeup to be the Twins' best clutch hitter throughout the years.  Which makes it difficult & confusing to see him go. Who had great difficulty saying no when asked to play hurt that greatly hurt him in his performance & make people question his overall health. And to play a difficult position that he never played before, making him look incompetent on a national level while yielding his position to Julien. While being taken advantage of with his salary. The only reason why I can see to let him go is that all that abuse on his body has become a chronic injury that shouldn't be on him anyway. 

We weren't over budget so why trade him now? To free up some money so they sign a short-term Gallo-type bat/ 1Bman or OFer they are enamored with? I'd much rather have Polanco's bat & glove instead of the unneeded prospects & players (that SEA were willing, & more than willing to give up) with a lot of red flags. I'm not against trading Polanco but this was not the time.

What is done is done, but Polanco will be greatly missed especially in a clutch situation during the postseason when most everybody are striking out.

[Jocko87]

I'll never forget when he came up from single A for that emergency stretch and didn't bat an eye. There were discussions back then that he was a middling prospect so starting his clock wouldn't matter but obviously the club knew something about him that he could handle it and not implode. He acted old for his age.

It was a bit of a sign of things to come. Never worried, always taking good at bats, doing everything asked and more. Glad he got to win in the postseason here. Should be a Twins hall of famer as soon as he's retired.

It also raises questions about who of the current youngsters should get a similar deal but the thing to remember is that the makeup of the person is almost as important as the baseball talent at those ages for extentions. The Brewers have to love Churio's maturity as much as his talent. Polo and Kepler were both good examples of the right kind of guys to extend.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

It's an interesting choice: contract for a sure $26 million or bet that you'll stay healthy, perform well, and perhaps make $90 million over time. I'd bet that most people would take the $26 million.

He wouldn't have made $90M because he was cost controlled through arbitration most of those seasons. It was more of a choice between $26M now and a possible $50M later.

It is interesting how everyone has pretty much forgotten his PED suspension. Does that keep him out of the Twins Hall of Fame?

[wabene]

25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

What is done is done, but Polanco will be greatly missed especially in a clutch situation during the postseason when most everybody are striking out.

Love me some Polo, but just saying

 

[wabene]

18 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'll never forget when he came up from single A for that emergency stretch and didn't bat an eye. There were discussions back then that he was a middling prospect so starting his clock wouldn't matter but obviously the club knew something about him that he could handle it and not implode. He acted old for his age.

It was a bit of a sign of things to come. Never worried, always taking good at bats, doing everything asked and more. Glad he got to win in the postseason here. Should be a Twins hall of famer as soon as he's retired.

It also raises questions about who of the current youngsters should get a similar deal but the thing to remember is that the makeup of the person is almost as important as the baseball talent at those ages for extentions. The Brewers have to love Churio's maturity as much as his talent. Polo and Kepler were both good examples of the right kind of guys to extend.

Maybe he's 36

https://theathletic.com/5231394/2024/01/27/mlb-age-falsification-identity-fraud-dominican-republic/

Gads I actually feel guilty posting this because I like Polo so much. I kant hep it

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Does the logic in the article for trading Polo, also apply to why the Twins should trade Kepler?  1) Kep's health is better than Polo's, 2) Kep's fielding is better, although it is not at a highly valued position, 3) Kep does not seem to have put team first in some decisions I have read about ("I don't want to play CF" and "I can't go with the team to play in Canada because I'm not vaccinated" and "Wandering in Europe to get away from baseball".) OK I admit the last point of "wandering in Europe" is a weak point of mine, but I contend there was more to Kep's decision to "wander" than we will ever know. 4) Most importantly, the Twins are not loaded with young, major league outfielders, ready to take Kep's place, whereas there are Lewis, Julien, C-4, Farmer and Lee...all needing an IF position. For me the 4th point is the main reason why the Twins should have traded Polo and should not trade Kep, unless it was for a much better deal than they got for Polo.  (The Orioles sure improved their already good team for 2024 with the Corbin Burns trade yesterday...and gave up very little).  

[Trov]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

It's an interesting choice: contract for a sure $26 million or bet that you'll stay healthy, perform well, and perhaps make $90 million over time. I'd bet that most people would take the $26 million.

It is hard to even put yourself in the shoes of someone who has to make that call.  I think most people that are on the outside looking in would say take the for sure money.  I mean 26 mil should be enough to live off of the rest of his life and if invested can be built on for his family down the road too.  We hear players turning down insane amounts of money, like reports Soto turned down reported $440 mil, for something of more value.  He is still doing just fine, set to hit FA if no extension with Yankees. He will earn at much if not more.  But at that point is not so much about the money, but as Kirk said, what the money represents.  I mean if Soto earns $440 mil or $500 mil is there much of a difference to how his life will be affected?  No, most likely not.  But if he is the highest paid player that means something to the player.  As Fast Eddie said, "The 'best' is the guy with the most. It's the whole show. The best is the guy with the most in all walks of life." In this case, the guy with the most pay, is the best, that is why you turn down a smaller contract, to show you are worth more.  

[Jocko87]

6 minutes ago, wabene said:

Maybe he's 36

https://theathletic.com/5231394/2024/01/27/mlb-age-falsification-identity-fraud-dominican-republic/

Gads I actually feel guilty posting this because I like Polo so much. I kant hep it

Would make the trade return that much better.

[Guest]

Well done.

Pre-arb extensions aren't for everyone, but when they work (and I expect this FO is considering a few now), they work for both sides.

[Doctor Gast]

I just watched Polanco's '23 highlights video on Youtube. '23 was supposedly to be a down year for Polanco but the video was jammed packed with big hits & references to Polanco as the heart & soul of the Twins & Mr. Clutch. Made me sad & miss him already.

[Twinsrtheworst]

Probably my favorite player since he got called up back when.  I will miss watching him.  Wishing him nothing but the best.

[roger]

Enjoyed the report, Greg, thanks.

Found two points that I must disagree with, however.  One is your comment, "The sad reality is that front offices are constantly playing a value game, trying to keep as much talent in the organization as possible."  Isn't the Front Office job to develop the most talented organization they can.  Why is that sad?

The other comment was that some formula shows Polo was worth $90M.  No, Polo was worth $25,750,000 which is what a willing buyer, the Twins, and a willing seller, Polo, agreed on.  I always just smile and shake my head when reading some of these off the wall estimates of a player's value.  

[Greggory Masterson]

13 minutes ago, roger said:

Enjoyed the report, Greg, thanks.

Found two points that I must disagree with, however.  One is your comment, "The sad reality is that front offices are constantly playing a value game, trying to keep as much talent in the organization as possible."  Isn't the Front Office job to develop the most talented organization they can.  Why is that sad?

The other comment was that some formula shows Polo was worth $90M.  No, Polo was worth $25,750,000 which is what a willing buyer, the Twins, and a willing seller, Polo, agreed on.  I always just smile and shake my head when reading some of these off the wall estimates of a player's value.  

I appreciate it—I’d like to respond to the points.

What I meant by sad reality was from a fan’s attachment perspective. Yes, I want a competent front office to make these moves running my favorite team. However, it’s sad that we have to say goodbye to a fan favorite before he’s fallen off the cliff or is no longer under contract.

For the second point, there are pretty widely-used estimates that convert value to dollars based on WAR. Those values are based on how much free agents are paid that year compared to how much WAR they put up. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s a good shorthand to see if a player was worth their salary. A contract extension also isn’t a free market—26M was what the Twins and only the Twins were willing to pay. None of the other 29 teams had a chance to negotiate with him. So his value could have definitely been higher on the free market

[roger]

2 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I appreciate it—I’d like to respond to the points.

What I meant by sad reality was from a fan’s attachment perspective. Yes, I want a competent front office to make these moves running my favorite team. However, it’s sad that we have to say goodbye to a fan favorite before he’s fallen off the cliff or is no longer under contract.

For the second point, there are pretty widely-used estimates that convert value to dollars based on WAR. Those values are based on how much free agents are paid that year compared to how much WAR they put up. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s a good shorthand to see if a player was worth their salary. A contract extension also isn’t a free market—26M was what the Twins and only the Twins were willing to pay. None of the other 29 teams had a chance to negotiate with him. So his value could have definitely been higher on the free market

Understand your use of the word, "sad."  Yes, it was sad to see Polo go as it was sad last year when my favorite Twin moved to South Florida.

Don't disagree with your response to the use of player value.  But personally, I find it as a joke when reading about them.  But then so much of what players are paid today are ridiculous like the recent Ohtani contract.  I value the old days when some of the greatest players in the NFL, guys like Starr, Nitschke, Taylor or Hornung made $40,000 or less. They had to have jobs in the off-season.  Us normal folk could relate a lot closer to the stars we cheered for back then. 

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Ctwink said:

it seems to me they could have done a 1 for 1 and gotten a GOOD starter 

I agree with everything you wrote except for this. Of course, what constitutes a 'GOOD starter' is subjective (I'll define it as a #3 starter), but I doubt any team is giving up their #3 starter for two years of Polanco's projected stat line, taking into consideration age and injury concerns.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

It is hard to even put yourself in the shoes of someone who has to make that call.  I think most people that are on the outside looking in would say take the for sure money.  I mean 26 mil should be enough to live off of the rest of his life and if invested can be built on for his family down the road too.  We hear players turning down insane amounts of money, like reports Soto turned down reported $440 mil, for something of more value.  He is still doing just fine, set to hit FA if no extension with Yankees. He will earn at much if not more.  But at that point is not so much about the money, but as Kirk said, what the money represents.  I mean if Soto earns $440 mil or $500 mil is there much of a difference to how his life will be affected?  No, most likely not.  But if he is the highest paid player that means something to the player.  As Fast Eddie said, "The 'best' is the guy with the most. It's the whole show. The best is the guy with the most in all walks of life." In this case, the guy with the most pay, is the best, that is why you turn down a smaller contract, to show you are worth more.  

Polanco wasn't in that type of insane amount of money situation - he was making around $500,000 a year back then. While that is nothing to sneeze at, if he had a career-ending injury, it wouldn't mean he didn't have to find something else to do with his life. For him, it was a real choice.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He wouldn't have made $90M because he was cost controlled through arbitration most of those seasons. It was more of a choice between $26M now and a possible $50M later.

It is interesting how everyone has pretty much forgotten his PED suspension. Does that keep him out of the Twins Hall of Fame?

Agreed, and I was thinking about making a similar point. I used the $26 vs. $90 million comparison because that is what the article used.

[Blyleven2011]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks Greggory. Polanco had the makeup to be the Twins' best clutch hitter throughout the years.  Which makes it difficult & confusing to see him go. Who had great difficulty saying no when asked to play hurt that greatly hurt him in his performance & make people question his overall health. And to play a difficult position that he never played before, making him look incompetent on a national level while yielding his position to Julien. While being taken advantage of with his salary. The only reason why I can see to let him go is that all that abuse on his body has become a chronic injury that shouldn't be on him anyway. 

We weren't over budget so why trade him now? To free up some money so they sign a short-term Gallo-type bat/ 1Bman or OFer they are enamored with? I'd much rather have Polanco's bat & glove instead of the unneeded prospects & players (that SEA were willing, & more than willing to give up) with a lot of red flags. I'm not against trading Polanco but this was not the time.

What is done is done, but Polanco will be greatly missed especially in a clutch situation during the postseason when most everybody are striking out.

From this article Polanco was traded at the right time and received something in return  , i dont necessarily agree trading Polanco his bat should able to be replaced , but will his clutch hitting be replaced ...

what I don't get if this was the right time to trade Polanco  and got a return like the rays do , then why is Kepler still here for his Final year of his contract  and we will get nothing if he walks away at the end of the season  ...

The only way way we recoup  anything for Kepler  is if we trade him at this year's deadline   , there is a possibility of the Twins offering him a qualifying offer for 2025 if he can maintain his second half performance  ...

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

From this article Polanco was traded at the right time and received something in return  , i dont necessarily agree trading Polanco his bat should able to be replaced , but will his clutch hitting be replaced ...

what I don't get if this was the right time to trade Polanco  and got a return like the rays do , then why is Kepler still here for his Final year of his contract  and we will get nothing if he walks away at the end of the season  ...

The only way way we recoup  anything for Kepler  is if we trade him at this year's deadline   , there is a possibility of the Twins offering him a qualifying offer for 2025 if he can maintain his second half performance  ...

A great hitter is one who adapts. If a pitcher gives a hitter a ball to drive, he drives it. If a pitcher gives a hitter a ball to lift, he lifts it. If he gives him a ball to pull, he pulls it. If he gives him a pitch to go the other way, he goes the other way. If gets 2 strikes he shortens his swing & fouls off any pitch he doesn't like & comes up with a clutch hit when needed & doesn't strike out. That is Polanco, a switch-hitter we need more of, not trade away. I'd trade away Polanco next year when Lee would be established not this year.

I was for keeping all the questionable salary players. But now after rethinking if I had to choose, I'd choose Kepler to be the one to trade. #1  because it's his last year. #2 LH OFers are in demand which he could be traded for a very good MLB RH OFer to help balance out our OF. #3 which is more important is looking back at '19 Kepler was in a great groove & hit a lot of HRs. but in '20, pitchers adjusted to him while Kepler could not readjust & floundered. '23 Kepler found his groove FO fell in love with but '24  pitchers have taken notes on Kepler & they are making adjustments. So is Kepler going to make the necessary readjustments? Odds are, he will not and will contribute to the Twins hitters' SO machine.