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You, personally, might have an opinion on the return for Jorge Polanco. Maybe it was a good deal; maybe the Twins were too concerned with shedding salary. Maybe it’s the worst deal since the Tommy Herr trade. Whatever your stance on it, though, in most situations, the Twins wouldn’t have had a chance to move him and recoup any value at all.
Polanco surpassed six years of service time in 2022. Generally, a player who reaches six years of service will be a free agent. He may be subject to a qualifying offer, but the team cannot force him to accept it. In one of the most underrated extensions in recent baseball history, the Twins signed Polanco to a deal before his age-25 season in 2019—a year he started at shortstop in the All-Star Game. The guaranteed sum for Polanco was $25.75 million over five years, an average of a meager $5.15 million per season.
Polanco had yet to reach arbitration, meaning he was still making approximately $500,000 per year, even though he had already spent parts of five seasons with the Twins. That contract gave him a raise to $3,583,333 in 2019, but it was also guaranteed to be under Twins control through 2023, a year past the point that he would otherwise have become a free agent.
It may have been partly due to the guaranteed, life-changing money for the Dominican native. It may have also been related to his 2018 PED suspension, and general uncertainty. It could be because he had been in the Twins organization since he was 16 years old. There are likely other reasons, but Derek Falvey made a bet on his young shortstop, and it paid off for him.
Max Kepler, who was also part of the 2009 international amateur signing class—along with Miguel Sanó—signed a similar deal at the same time. Both contracts paid off to different degrees, but this story is about Polanco.
Polanco played 544 games during his five-year contract and hit .268/.337/.458, for a 117 OPS+. If you’re a WAR person, playing shortstop, second base, and third base to different extents, he accumulated 14.5 rWAR and 11.4 fWAR (worth over $90,000,000 no matter how it’s calculated), as compared to the $25,750,000 he was paid.
That value would be a victory in itself, especially considering that he played for an extra year at a reasonable $7,500,000 contract in 2023, a number he surely would have surpassed on the open market. However, the most significant stroke was the additional two years of team options. (Technically, Polanco could have forced the team to retain him if he reached 550 plate appearances, but that’s also in the team’s control—he didn’t choose how much he played.)
Those two option years, worth $10.5 million and $12 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, gave the team incredible flexibility. Both sums are likely less than what Polanco would get on the free market, but they also retained the ability to be flexible in how they handled him.
It’s fitting, really. Polanco has provided flexibility on the field his whole career. He’s played shortstop, willingly moved to second base to make room for Andrelton Simmons and later Carlos Correa, and he volunteered to cover third base in 2023—a 30-year-old veteran making room for the man who would eventually replace him. He switch-hits and has batted in every batting order spot (but primarily second, third, and leadoff).
And yet, at the end of his Twins career, he provided more flexibility. No, he didn’t reach the end of the contract with the Twins, but most baseball decision-makers would tell you that that’s not an issue. This trade wouldn’t have been possible had he never signed an extension. He would already be playing elsewhere.
The sad reality is that front offices are constantly playing a value game, trying to keep as much talent in the organization as possible. Sometimes, that requires selling high. Sometimes, that requires moving on before the player is no longer valuable, whether based on them leaving the team in free agency or their production diminishing. The Rays are notorious for selling off the back end of their larger contracts, for instance, even if the player is still producing.
However, Polanco’s situation was nearly perfect for the Twins. If he had bottomed out—if the injuries had caught up to him, if the bat had slowed, whatever—they could wash their hands of him. If they truly needed him on the field—if there was no Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis—he would have been a fine option, retaining his role. However, the Twins were in a position to move him with a controllable contract that the Mariners could also wash their hands of after 2024.
But had they not struck a deal in 2019, none of that would have been relevant. Polanco would be playing second base for, I don’t know, maybe even the Mariners. But the Twins would have nothing to show for it. Sometimes pre-arbitration extensions backfire, but this one paid off. Even at the moment, it was entirely sensible. It’s a victory that the Twins had a decision to make in the first place.
I wish it didn’t have to be. I was hoping for a rotation of five good infielders patrolling the dirt (and also warming a spot for Lee) in 2024. I wish that the payroll wasn’t something you, me, or my cousin Geoff needed to concern ourselves with. But good baseball teams make these types of moves and work within the confines they’re given.
So long, Jorge. And thanks for the parting gifts.
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