Assessing the Twins' Trade of Jorge Polanco

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Brooks Lee is coming. And while you can't rely on a rookie hitting the ground running, he's got all the tools to be an excellent MLB 2B. And if he struggles to start with, we have both Farmer and Julien who can cover 2B. But this trade clears the path for Lee to reach MLB and I'm really looking forward to watching him. 

Which is totally fine. But Jorge Polanco was going to hit 2 hole on this team. I know we're all excited about Lee, but taking the 2 hole hitter out of a playoff roster because we hope Brooks Lee has "all the tools" isn't something I'm excited about, I'm sorry.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, pierre75275 said:

In order for this trade, by itself to have hurt the 2024 team, that means the Twins internal options to replace Polanco will need to worse then him. So Julien, Farmer, and maybe occasionally starts by Castro and/or Lee if he gets called up and a rotating DH (of which Polanco would have been a part of) would be worse than Polanco this year. In addition to that, Topa instead of shoring up the pen isn't good at all, and in addition to that, Andrew D implodes as a 5th starter. 

I don't believe all those things happen like that. Andrew D is a depth piece and will be used accordingly, but most likely isn't on the team come Oct. Topa shores up the bullpen, leaving several options in AAA if he doesn't. I think at the end of the year, Julien's numbers and WAR are higher than Polanco's and he has played more.

Now if you want to say the 2024 team is worse than 2023 bc of the loss of Kenta, Gray, Pagan, Taylor, and Solano, I wouldn't argue that, but this trade moves the needle in the right direction.

If you believe Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Brooks Lee are good enough to hit 2 hole in the playoffs more power to ya, I don't. Julien isn't replacing Polanco in any way shape or form. They were both already in the starting lineup. Topa can be lights out and still not be anywhere near valuable enough to make up for any real amount of loss of the 2 hole hitter in the lineup, that's just the nature of relief pitching. DeSclafani hasn't been good for years, has a questionable elbow, and is worse than the guy he's pushing out of the rotation (Varland).

"Used accordingly?" We'll see about that, I guess. Again, Julien isn't replacing Polanco. I don't know why people keep saying that. If opening day had been 1/28 Julien would've lead off and Polanco would've been hitting right behind him (assuming a righty starter). Julien having a higher WAR than Polanco doesn't matter when they're both in the starting lineup.

We'll just have to agree to disagree that replacing your 2 hole hitter with a "depth piece" starter you don't expect to even last the season and a reliever makes this team better.

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco has been abused most of his career, Playing SS with bad ankles (that disappeared when he was moved off SS). Constantly playing hurt when it was obvious to most that he was really hurting until he couldn't go out to the field any longer, instead of promptly taking care of the problem.  Polanco isn't damaged goods, management is, When Polo is healthy he puts up monster #s, Polo is in his prime & healthy. 

FO gains $ on this deal so they can go to FA to pick up another Gallo, Happ, Shoemaker, Colume' type FA & if they unload Farmer, Vazquez, & Kepler, maybe they can put enough $ together to sign a Donaldson type FA. Twins weren't over budget, their roster was great only missing a Pablo Lopez-type trade so why the need to trade Polo?

Hats off to SEA who gave up some unneeded fat to fill a gaping need. Boo to our FO for losing muscle to gain nothing. 

Thanks, Polo for many memorable moments, sorry for the abuse you suffered that really brought down your stats, Hope you're treated well in SEA & many years of fantastic baseball

[Old Twins Cap]

Polanco was a peach of a player to watch: swith-hitter with good contact/power and decent speed/defense, but let's face it:  he put a lot of miles on his legs and he's not got a powerful physique.  More of a dancer's body than a rugged baller.  Best dancer on the team.

Hope he holds up in Seattle.

As for the Twins, another late-inning high quality reliever, some starter innings, a young stud prospect and a wild card reliever with a good arm.

It's the way of baseball.  Doing bulk on prospects for a mid to low-level payroll team is how you Tampa-up your long term success.

[Dman]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

MLBtraderumors has the Twins banking an extra 5.25 mil on this deal so I'm not sure the cash is all that useful unless they're planning on going above where they were. Gonzalez is top-100 on 1 list, but is he on any others? Fangraphs had him at 40+ FV so we'll see if they've changed their mind on him. Bowen wasn't in the top 30 for Seattle but he's going to be top 20 for the Twins? Not buying that at all. 

In a vacuum I think this is fair value for Polanco. I want nothing to do with DeSclafani types on the Twins rotation anymore, but such is life. I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. Gonzalez has some very nice reviews on his bat to ball skills, but is apparently the polar opposite of Emma and swings at everything. Probably why he wasn't good after his promotion to A+ ball, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements they can make there. They got Miranda to cut down his swing crazy approach so hopefully they can do it again. Bowen is a likely reliever flier so we'll see there. Overall it's a solid return for 2 years of Polanco with his recent injuries. 

That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.

I know trade values likes this deal for the Twins and future value on this deal favors the Twins but I still think Seattle won this trade by not giving up anything they might need in the near future for a versatile top of the order bat.  Dipoto might not get kudos on this deal since he gave up an arguable top 100 prospect, but this is the type of move win now teams make. 

While the return for the Twins looks like a lot there are a lot of question marks on the return. The M's had to pay the Twins just to get rid of DeSclafani and they freed up a 40 man spot they can put to better use if so desired.  Topa is the piece that maybe hurts them a bit but they got him for virtually nothing last year so to trade that for a top of order bat is still a very good deal for them.  Bowen was a 13th round pick with control problems adding him to get the deal done would have been a no brainer.  The one thing that could tip this the Twins way is Gonzalez,  He is a borderline top 100 prospect who has OPS'd in the 900's until a brief stint at High A.  The contact skills (bat to ball) are there and your comp of Miranda is a good one.  Can he learn to swing at good pitches and lay off bad ones?  There is still a ton of risk and unless he conquers that skill quickly he is several years away from making it at the MLB level if at all.  Again I think that is an OK risk for a win now team to make for a player that lengthens your lineup like Polanco does and your team in general.

The Mariners gave up extra future value that may never arrive and they didn't give up one of their prized young starters.  So again I tip my cap to Dipoto as he got the better present value.  If Polanco stays healthy he is gonna give them 800 OPS production good at bats and OK defense.  That is hard to find.  The Mariners did well in this trade IMO.

If you are the Twins you failed to get a difference making starter in this deal.  You are risking another one year wonder reliever will work out and at his age maybe you get those 5 years out of him maybe not.  You get a near top 100 hitter with good contact skills who might get himself out by swinging at pitches that are not even strikes.  And finally you get a 13th round draft choice that might have two plus pitches.  If two out of the three work out you ultimately win the trade, but two of those players are a long ways away so you lost the present value of the trade unless you come up with something pretty good with the money saved.  It's too much risk for me, but if the goal was to move Polanco and this was best deal they could get then it is what it is.  Have to hope the eval's on these players is good and they work out and they do get that future value otherwise this trade looks bad IMO.

 

[Whitey333]

I'm glad everyone is so excited about our prospects.  Most never pan out.  I don't mind trading Polanco just thought maybe they could have gotten at least one good player in return.  The pitchers we got just seem to add to the long list of questionable pitchers.  The starter us a one year person and our new reliever had mire tommy john surgeries vs goof seasons. 2 tommy John to 1 good season.  I'm hoping they both work out.  Yes, like the Twins FO, hoping!

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

I know trade values likes this deal for the Twins and future value on this deal favors the Twins but I still think Seattle won this trade by not giving up anything they might need in the near future for a versatile top of the order bat.  Dipoto might not get kudos on this deal since he gave up an arguable top 100 prospect, but this is the type of move win now teams make. 

While the return for the Twins looks like a lot there are a lot of question marks on the return. The M's had to pay the Twins just to get rid of DeSclafani and they freed up a 40 man spot they can put to better use if so desired.  Topa is the piece that maybe hurts them a bit but they got him for virtually nothing last year so to trade that for a top of order bat is still a very good deal for them.  Bowen was a 13th round pick with control problems adding him to get the deal done would have been a no brainer.  The one thing that could tip this the Twins way is Gonzalez,  He is a borderline top 100 prospect who has OPS'd in the 900's until a brief stint at High A.  The contact skills (bat to ball) are there and your comp of Miranda is a good one.  Can he learn to swing at good pitches and lay off bad ones?  There is still a ton of risk and unless he conquers that skill quickly he is several years away from making it at the MLB level if at all.  Again I think that is an OK risk for a win now team to make for a player that lengthens your lineup like Polanco does and your team in general.

The Mariners gave up extra future value that may never arrive and they didn't give up one of their prized young starters.  So again I tip my cap to Dipoto as he got the better present value.  If Polanco stays healthy he is gonna give them 800 OPS production good at bats and OK defense.  That is hard to find.  The Mariners did well in this trade IMO.

If you are the Twins you failed to get a difference making starter in this deal.  You are risking another one year wonder reliever will work out and and at his age maybe you get those 5 years out of him maybe not.  You get a near top 100 hitter with good contact skills who might get himself out by swinging at pitches that are not even strikes.  And finally you get a 13th round draft choice that might have two plus pitches.  If two out of the three work out you ultimately win the trade, but two of those players are a long ways away so you lost the present value of the trade unless you come up with something pretty good with the money saved.  It's too much risk for me, but if the goal was to move Polanco and this was best deal they could get then it is what it is.  Have to hope the eval's on these players is good and they work out and they do get that future value otherwise this trade looks bad IMO.

 

That's where I'm at, too. I think they got fair value for Polanco, but most of that value is in the future, and I'm just not interested in future value when the team is coming off an ALDS appearance and has already seen their talent level decrease. I hope Gonzalez figures it out. Doesn't appear to be any sort of defensive asset so has to really figure it out with the bat. But maybe he does. Or maybe they flip him. It's just disappointing to see the first successful playoffs Twins team in 2 decades take continual steps backwards while slashing payroll. Should've been an exciting, momentum building offseason, but it's been the complete opposite. I believe they'll start making moves a little quicker now and we'll start seeing some positive steps forward, but as it stands today this offseason gets an F from me.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

57 minutes ago, Dman said:

I know trade values likes this deal for the Twins and future value on this deal favors the Twins but I still think Seattle won this trade by not giving up anything they might need in the near future for a versatile top of the order bat.  Dipoto might not get kudos on this deal since he gave up an arguable top 100 prospect, but this is the type of move win now teams make. 

While the return for the Twins looks like a lot there are a lot of question marks on the return. The M's had to pay the Twins just to get rid of DeSclafani and they freed up a 40 man spot they can put to better use if so desired.  Topa is the piece that maybe hurts them a bit but they got him for virtually nothing last year so to trade that for a top of order bat is still a very good deal for them.  Bowen was a 13th round pick with control problems adding him to get the deal done would have been a no brainer.  The one thing that could tip this the Twins way is Gonzalez,  He is a borderline top 100 prospect who has OPS'd in the 900's until a brief stint at High A.  The contact skills (bat to ball) are there and your comp of Miranda is a good one.  Can he learn to swing at good pitches and lay off bad ones?  There is still a ton of risk and unless he conquers that skill quickly he is several years away from making it at the MLB level if at all.  Again I think that is an OK risk for a win now team to make for a player that lengthens your lineup like Polanco does and your team in general.

The Mariners gave up extra future value that may never arrive and they didn't give up one of their prized young starters.  So again I tip my cap to Dipoto as he got the better present value.  If Polanco stays healthy he is gonna give them 800 OPS production good at bats and OK defense.  That is hard to find.  The Mariners did well in this trade IMO.

If you are the Twins you failed to get a difference making starter in this deal.  You are risking another one year wonder reliever will work out and at his age maybe you get those 5 years out of him maybe not.  You get a near top 100 hitter with good contact skills who might get himself out by swinging at pitches that are not even strikes.  And finally you get a 13th round draft choice that might have two plus pitches.  If two out of the three work out you ultimately win the trade, but two of those players are a long ways away so you lost the present value of the trade unless you come up with something pretty good with the money saved.  It's too much risk for me, but if the goal was to move Polanco and this was best deal they could get then it is what it is.  Have to hope the eval's on these players is good and they work out and they do get that future value otherwise this trade looks bad IMO.

 

The issue is their win now move is right now only a 1 year deal,  possibly 2 if they pick up his option.  Polanco as of now is the best player traded.  However what do you think the odds are Topa and Desclafani have a higher WAR than Polanco?  25%, 30%, 40%, 50%?   If Desclafani is healthy it goes much higher.  

This also ignores the net 5.75 million that they want to utilize and use $10 to $15 million on a position player that we likely don't get without this deal.   I am really interested to see where they go on the FA market.  

Gonzalez currently - as 18 year old,  killed rookie ball, struggled in A ball,  19 killed A ball,  struggle in A+ ball. Yes if he struggles in high A this year a lot of his shine come off.  If he rakes In A+ ball this year you have another E Rod.  Its either an asset in a trade, or Twins can see if they can help him in high A ball.  If he does well again,  he is firmly a top prospect and someone the Twins well be very glad to have in their system.  

[UK Twin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Which is totally fine. But Jorge Polanco was going to hit 2 hole on this team. I know we're all excited about Lee, but taking the 2 hole hitter out of a playoff roster because we hope Brooks Lee has "all the tools" isn't something I'm excited about, I'm sorry.

We've still got plenty of people who can hit in the 2 hole - Buxton and Correa have both hit there in the past. Farmer could hit there against lefties. Kepler could do it against righties. I really don't think there's a big issue replacing Polanco's production there. But we'll see. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

1.  The starter us a one year person and our new reliever had mire tommy john surgeries vs goof seasons. 2 tommy John to 1 good season. 

2.  I'm hoping they both work out.  Yes, like the Twins FO, hoping!

Numbers added....

1.  Try proofreading before posting.

2.  Seattle is also hoping.  They are hoping Polanco is able to play 140 games

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

We've still got plenty of people who can hit in the 2 hole - Buxton and Correa have both hit there in the past. Farmer could hit there against lefties. Kepler could do it against righties. I really don't think there's a big issue replacing Polanco's production there. But we'll see. 

The spot in the order isn't really the point. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters. They took a bat from the top of their lineup and replaced it with a reliever and a starter nobody thinks is actually any good. I hope you're right and it's not a big issue replacing a 115+ OPS+ bat at the top of the lineup. History says you're probably wrong, though.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Which is totally fine. But Jorge Polanco was going to hit 2 hole on this team. I know we're all excited about Lee, but taking the 2 hole hitter out of a playoff roster because we hope Brooks Lee has "all the tools" isn't something I'm excited about, I'm sorry.

The Twins will have a "2 hole hitter" for the playoffs.  As a matter of fact, they will have a "2 hole hitter" all season.  It is actually required by the rules of baseball that someone hit second.  We just don't know who that is right now.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The issue is their win now move is right now only a 1 year deal,  possibly 2 if they pick up his option.  Polanco as of now is the best player traded.  However what do you think the odds are Topa and Desclafani have a higher WAR than Polanco?  25%, 30%, 40%, 50%?   If Desclafani is healthy it goes much higher.  

This also ignores the net 5.75 million that they want to utilize and use $10 to $15 million on a position player that we likely don't get without this deal.   I am really interested to see where they go on the FA market.  

Gonzalez currently - as 18 year old,  killed rookie ball, struggled in A ball,  19 killed A ball,  struggle in A+ ball. Yes if he struggles in high A this year a lot of his shine come off.  If he rakes In A+ ball this year you have another E Rod.  Its either an asset in a trade, or Twins can see if they can help him in high A ball.  If he does well again,  he is firmly a top prospect and someone the Twins well be very glad to have in their system.  

Legitimate question, who do you see on the FA market that you're excited to spend 10 to 15 mil on? 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

The Twins will have a "2 hole hitter" for the playoffs.  As a matter of fact, they will have a "2 hole hitter" all season.  It is actually required by the rules of baseball that someone hit second.  We just don't know who that is right now.

They made their lineup worse last night. I don't know why that's a controversial thing to suggest.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Legitimate question, who do you see on the FA market that you're excited to spend 10 to 15 mil on? 

Ive said in other posts and these individuals may sign for higher per a year and I think for the right player the Twins may push to $18 to $20 mil per a year,  but I think you have to look at Bellinger, Clevinger, Montgomery,  JD Martinez, Ryu,  Hendriks (dependent on when available),  Most likely we spread it out on a few pieces.   

[bird]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

MLBtraderumors has the Twins banking an extra 5.25 mil on this deal so I'm not sure the cash is all that useful unless they're planning on going above where they were. Gonzalez is top-100 on 1 list, but is he on any others? Fangraphs had him at 40+ FV so we'll see if they've changed their mind on him. Bowen wasn't in the top 30 for Seattle but he's going to be top 20 for the Twins? Not buying that at all. 

In a vacuum I think this is fair value for Polanco. I want nothing to do with DeSclafani types on the Twins rotation anymore, but such is life. I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. Gonzalez has some very nice reviews on his bat to ball skills, but is apparently the polar opposite of Emma and swings at everything. Probably why he wasn't good after his promotion to A+ ball, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of improvements they can make there. They got Miranda to cut down his swing crazy approach so hopefully they can do it again. Bowen is a likely reliever flier so we'll see there. Overall it's a solid return for 2 years of Polanco with his recent injuries. 

That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.

I see Bowen at #22 with a 35+ FV, Gonzalez as #10 and at 40+FV as you said, and Topa at #12. These are 2023 assessments, so with Gonzalez and Bowen, it will be interesting to see if those FV’s change when 2024 is revealed.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Ive said in other posts and these individuals may sign for higher per a year and I think for the right player the Twins may push to $18 to $20 mil per a year,  but I think you have to look at Bellinger, Clevinger, Montgomery,  JD Martinez, Ryu,  Hendriks (dependent on when available),  Most likely we spread it out on a few pieces.   

I think we can pretty easily take Bellinger and Montgomery off that list for 1 year deals. It'd be pretty shocking to see Bellinger take another pillow deal. And if he does it'll be for more than 20 mil considering he got 17.5 coming off absolutely horrid years back to back. And every contending team in baseball would find a way to get Montgomery 20 mil for 1 year if that's all it'd take.

I don't see them going DH only, but JD would be a nice bat to have in the lineup if he has another year in him. Clevinger, Ryu, and Hendriks are interesting. I don't think you can do multiple of them, but probably could get 1 of them for what the Twins are likely willing to spend right now. Question is what they do with DeSclafani if they bring in Clevinger or Ryu. Since he's extremely cheap now you can probably flip him for a flier prospect so that'd be an interesting situation. But I agree with your statement in the other post that the Twins are likely looking at position players now. And I don't see any that are likely in the Twins price range and bring legitimate value in return when it comes to replacing Polanco's bat.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think we can pretty easily take Bellinger and Montgomery off that list for 1 year deals. It'd be pretty shocking to see Bellinger take another pillow deal. And if he does it'll be for more than 20 mil considering he got 17.5 coming off absolutely horrid years back to back. And every contending team in baseball would find a way to get Montgomery 20 mil for 1 year if that's all it'd take.

I don't see them going DH only, but JD would be a nice bat to have in the lineup if he has another year in him. Clevinger, Ryu, and Hendriks are interesting. I don't think you can do multiple of them, but probably could get 1 of them for what the Twins are likely willing to spend right now. Question is what they do with DeSclafani if they bring in Clevinger or Ryu. Since he's extremely cheap now you can probably flip him for a flier prospect so that'd be an interesting situation. But I agree with your statement in the other post that the Twins are likely looking at position players now. And I don't see any that are likely in the Twins price range and bring legitimate value in return when it comes to replacing Polanco's bat.

I never said 1 year deals.    What happens if the go for 6 years $18 million.  Yes  it seems like there is a lot of competition.  I have no idea what the final numbers will come in at, most likely higher but its worth looking into.  

As to the Twins, you fully move Varland to the bullpen and you run with effectively 6 starters.  Anymore it seems you need that depth, and whether due to performance or injury can usually find enough starts for everyone.  Otherwise yes you start to have some assets to trade, especially if Desclafani appears to be healthy.  

 

 

[Dman]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The issue is their win now move is right now only a 1 year deal,  possibly 2 if they pick up his option.  Polanco as of now is the best player traded.  However what do you think the odds are Topa and Desclafani have a higher WAR than Polanco?  25%, 30%, 40%, 50%?   If Desclafani is healthy it goes much higher.  

This also ignores the net 5.75 million that they want to utilize and use $10 to $15 million on a position player that we likely don't get without this deal.   I am really interested to see where they go on the FA market.  

Gonzalez currently - as 18 year old,  killed rookie ball, struggled in A ball,  19 killed A ball,  struggle in A+ ball. Yes if he struggles in high A this year a lot of his shine come off.  If he rakes In A+ ball this year you have another E Rod.  Its either an asset in a trade, or Twins can see if they can help him in high A ball.  If he does well again,  he is firmly a top prospect and someone the Twins well be very glad to have in their system.  

Yep if they all work out it is a great trade for the Twins. No doubt they have a chance to win the present value and future value of the trade.  However, looking back at the Presley trade or the Berrios trade and you can see future value is a murky thing.  Looking at the trade for Lopez who was an All Star that year is a present value trade that didn't work out either.  That doesn't mean these players won't work out, but it does show there is a lot of risk and variability in outcomes.  

If Topa and Desclafani are the best versions of themselves it solidifies the team and negates the loss of Poianco.  If they falter this deal doesn't really help this years team at all.  The most consistent player in this deal is Polanco and barring serious injury he is the most likely to perform to an expected level.  He could be injured and Topa and Desclafani could be great. That is one outcome but given the past it seems the least likely outcome.

I think I admitted Gonzalez was the wild card in this deal.  Still guys that don't conquer the strike zone almost never make it to MLB.  He is young and has time to get there, but several scouts see his free swinging ways as an issue.  Time will tell how that turns out but that weakness makes him more risky to work out in the end.  I agree that if that is over blown he could be really, really good.  He has good contact skills and power as his 900 OPS indicates.

I am just saying the Twins took on a lot of risk with the players they traded for.  It doesn't mean it won't work out well for them in the end.  It just feels like too much risk for me, but I probably value Polanco more than I should.  As a Twins fan I am hoping all the players they received reach their full potential.  I just have my doubts and I feel like Seattle got the player most likely to work out.

[terrydactyls]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They made their lineup worse last night. I don't know why that's a controversial thing to suggest.

Huh?  I made no comment about the impact to the lineup and I never said that anything was controversial.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I never said 1 year deals.    What happens if the go for 6 years $18 million.  Yes  it seems like there is a lot of competition.  I have no idea what the final numbers will come in at, most likely higher but its worth looking into.  

As to the Twins, you fully move Varland to the bullpen and you run with effectively 6 starters.  Anymore it seems you need that depth, and whether due to performance or injury can usually find enough starts for everyone.  Otherwise yes you start to have some assets to trade, especially if Desclafani appears to be healthy.  

 

 

Yeah, you're not getting those big name guys for 6/18, sorry.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Huh?  I made no comment about the impact to the lineup and I never said that anything was controversial.

You made no real comment on anything so I just laid out my point and questioned why anyone, not just you, would find it controversial to suggest losing Jorge Polanco makes the offense worse.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

32 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yep if they all work out it is a great trade for the Twins. No doubt they have a chance to win the present value and future value of the trade.  However, looking back at the Presley trade or the Berrios trade and you can see future value is a murky thing.  Looking at the trade for Lopez who was an All Star that year is present value trade that didn't work out either.  That doesn't mean these players won't work out, but it does show there is a lot risk and variability in outcomes.  

If Topa and Desclafani are the best versions of themselves it solidifies the team and negates the loss of Poianco.  If they falter this deal doesn't really help this years team at all.  The most consistent player in this deal is Polanco and barring serious injury he is the most likely to perform to an expected level.  He could be injured and Topa and Desclafani could be great. That is one outcome but given the past it seems the least likely outcome.

I think I admitted Gonzalez was the wild card in this deal.  Still guys that don't conquer the strike zone almost never make it to MLB.  He is young and has time to get there, but several scouts see his free swinging ways as an issue.  Time will tell how that turns out but that weakness makes him more risky to work out in the end.  I agree that if that is over blown he could be really, really good.  He has good contact skills and power as his 900 OPS indicates.

I am just saying the Twins took on a lot of risk with the players they traded for.  It doesn't mean it won't work out well for them in the end.  It just feels like too much risk for me, but I probably vale Polanco more than I should.  As a Twins fan I am hoping all the players they received reach their full potential.  I just have my doubts and I feel like Seattle got the player most likely to work out.

I would disagree that I actually think Topa is the steadiest player in the trade.  Big claim I know :).  However he developed the cutter in 2022.  It has become extremely effective.  Its no different than Pressley figuring some things out Houston.  Yes can he be a flash in the pan yes.  The Mariners really wanted to keep him though.   

Polanco really comes down to the legs and lower back healthy or not or are they going to become a perpetual issue?  I would lean towards healthy.  

Desclafani, is effectively a 3 outcome player.  Healthy back to performance early in 2023 and 2021.  Healthy but age catching up- an effective #4, #5 inning eating pitcher.  Or arm is cooked and he is done.   Its  questionable, and a risk - its hard to know what those probabilities are.  If its the first 2 outcomes Twins have a good chance of winning the trade before even the outcome on the prospects.  

Yes Gonzalez is a wildcard.  Similar to EROD.  Hard to project until higher in the minors and they are very different in styles, need to see how they they refine their skills.  Also no offense, stating a 19 year hasn't conquered the strike zone in high A ball is a very interesting statement.  He just turned 20.  Its like saying Max Clark is overrated because he struggled in A ball in his cup of coffee.  This year has a lot of impact on Gonzalez's value.  If he does well in A+ ball suddenly his value increases much more and we get a major steal in the trade, if he struggles or flatline a lot of shine comes off the trade.  Now with E Rod, you increase your chances that you will have 1 player be successful.  

Gonzalez has been on a rampage since debuting in the Dominican Summer League in 2021, compiling a career .307/.393/.491 slash line with 14 home runs and 18 steals in 121 games across the DSL, Arizona Complex League and Single-A. He was young for all of those levels and turned 19 in January, and he could open the year with an aggressive assignment to High-A. A right fielder who projects for above-average to plus game power, Gonzalez has excellent bat-to-ball skills and probably swings a bit too much at this stage. Additionally, he probably uses the opposite field too much (40.6 Oppo% at Single-A, 38.1 Oppo% in the ACL), although it shows how in control he is at the dish. Gonzalez's 53.6 GB% at Single-A was too high, but he has been adept at getting the ball in the air at previous stops, so that could just be a small-sample blip. Gonzalez is built kind of like Wander Franco, and projects to be a bit more compact than typical power/speed outfielders, so the expectation should be that his bat will drive his value, not his legs.

[terrydactyls]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You made no real comment on anything so I just laid out my point and questioned why anyone, not just you, would find it controversial to suggest losing Jorge Polanco makes the offense worse.

If that is the case, don't use my comment as the source.  I didn't imply in any way the that the trade was or was not controversial.  As a matter of fact, almost all postings on Twins Daily are "controversial" because there are always positive and negative comments.  In the case of the Polanco trade there is no way around being controversial because of all the unknowns.

Will Polanco be healthy in 2024?

Will Disclafani have a decent year (or fall off a cliff).

Will Topa be a one-year wonder?     ....,.etc. etc.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If that is the case, don't use my comment as the source.  I didn't imply in any way the that the trade was or was not controversial.  As a matter of fact, almost all postings on Twins Daily are "controversial" because there are always positive and negative comments.  In the case of the Polanco trade there is no way around being controversial because of all the unknowns.

Will Polanco be healthy in 2024?

Will Disclafani have a decent year (or fall off a cliff).

Will Topa be a one-year wonder?     ....,.etc. etc.

You quoted me. If you didn't want a response you shouldn't have used my comment "as the source."

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, you're not getting those big name guys for 6/18, sorry.

No one knows what their values are going to come in at.  We are starting to get into crunch time,  also read my post I said most likely higher.   Its hard to know,  if things solidify with TV contracts if the Twins would be willing to open the purse strings.  Right now on a 1 year deal JD Martinez would be the best bat we can get that would also be a RH.  

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

No one knows what their values are going to come in at.  We are starting to get into crunch time,  also read my post I said most likely higher.   Its hard to know,  if things solidify with TV contracts if the Twins would be willing to open the purse strings.  Right now on a 1 year deal JD Martinez would be the best bat we can get that would also be a RH.  

Fair. I just don't think there's any reasonable chance the Twins turn this extra 5ish mil into a high priced free agent of any kind. I think if that's what we're pinning our hopes to we're going to be awfully disappointed. And I don't see them signing JD since he's a DH only and they aren't likely to pay for one of those with health concerns all over the roster. But we'll see.

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You quoted me. If you didn't want a response you shouldn't have used my comment "as the source."

I responded to what you said.  Your comment was not about what I said so I shouldn't be referenced.  But since you never wrong about anything, I will let you trash me once more without responding.

[arby58]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I hope Topa can have another good season, but he's 33 and struck out less than a guy an inning which isn't great for a reliever in 2024. 

That being said I still don't like it, in a vacuum. Trading your 2 hole hitter while you're in the "win now" part of your org cycle is a tough pill to swallow when the best piece coming back is a reliever. But I have every belief that more is to come so we'll see what they can do. But I firmly believe this move alone made the 2024 Twins worse. And I'm not a fan of that.

Topa's strikeouts per inning are almost exactly those of Pagan last year - which is the role he will likely play (solid innings eater, some high leverage situations). He is a ground ball pitcher, and situationally that is something the Twins don't have much in the bullpen.

Suggesting Polanco was their '2 hole hitter' - where was he going to play? Julien is their second baseman. Julien hit for a higher average, better OPS and OPS+ than Polanco, he's younger and has more upside potential. Besides, if your '2 hole hitter' is .789 OPS, your offense is in trouble. Polanco didn't fare well at third base, and you have to assume Buxton gets most of the ABs at DH. You can only play 9 at a time.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Topa's strikeouts per inning are almost exactly those of Pagan last year - which is the role he will likely play (solid innings eater, some high leverage situations). He is a ground ball pitcher, and situationally that is something the Twins don't have much in the bullpen.

Suggesting Polanco was their '2 hole hitter' - where was he going to play? Julien is their second baseman. Julien hit for a higher average, better OPS and OPS+ than Polanco, he's younger and has more upside potential. Besides, if your '2 hole hitter' is .789 OPS, your offense is in trouble. Polanco didn't fare well at third base, and you have to assume Buxton gets most of the ABs at DH. You can only play 9 at a time.

You think Pagan is a good get for Polanco? That's not selling me on Topa.

I don't assume Buxton gets most of his ABs at DH. If he can't play CF most of the time they need to put him on the IL. Is Kirilloff healthy and going to play a full season? Lewis going to play the whole season? Even if Buxton is a DH primarily is he going to play the full year? I don't get this idea that there's just no ABs for Polanco. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters, there's ABs for him. Donovan Solano stepped to the plate 450 times for the Twins last year. There's ABs for one of your best hitters. It's crazy to me that people think there's just no room for him.