When We Could See Top Twins Prospects Debut in 2024

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Canterino was great but I don't think he ever went through an entire lineup more than twice. He was limited to 4 innings for all but two of those starts. He has a 2-2 lifetime minor league record because he's lasted long enough to get the win twice.

Thus the "admittedly very small sample size" comment. And getting through a lineup twice is a pretty solid starting point for someone. Better than they have Raya doing and people are awfully excited about him. And I couldn't care less about pitcher wins.

But the point stands that comping him directly to Duran is leaving out that Duran struggled mightily in the upper minors and that was part of why they put him in the pen, not just durability concerns.

[big dog]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He's averaged 56 innings per season over the last 7 seasons. That's a real thing.

Well, completely sitting out two seasons biases that statistic quite a bit. If he gets 0 this season he probably won't start or relieve. So if we assume the 125 is a real number, then what?

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lee is a much better prospect, and more pro-ready, than you describe. When he is ready, there isn't anyone that will hold him back on the mlb roster.

Being ready is fine, but there has to be an opening before the player gets called up. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Not if a player is ready. You make room at that point right?

[RpR]

51 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Not if a player is ready. You make room at that point right?

Only if some one else is under performing.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think you underestimate how good of a prospect Brooks Lee actually is. When he is ready there is space for him.

[jorgenswest]

I would have exchanged Camargo and Severino. Any catcher injury and he is starting at least twice a week. 

As for Gordon, it is hard to put out of our minds the struggle in centerfield when he was thrown into the position at the major league level. In 2022 he had a O RAA and was more than adequate. Martin may not be as ready. He also had a -1 RAA at 2B. He is a utility player. ZIPS had an OPS projection of .721 for Gordon. 

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think you underestimate how good of a prospect Brooks Lee actually is. When he is ready there is space for him.

Do you think Lee will push Lewis off of 3B? Since his first year of college scouts have projected him to be a very good third baseman as a MLB player.

[Cory Engelhardt]

23 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you think Lee will push Lewis off of 3B? Since his first year of college scouts have projected him to be a very good third baseman as a MLB player.

Maybe eventually. Not in 2024. I want Lewis to have a run of playing somewhere, being comfortable, and staying healthy. 
2b maybe? 1b? Somewhere. His bat will play, and frankly I like his glove more than Julien’s too. Maybe that moves Julien to dh or left or something, but Lee will be up some how 

[Fatbat]

There sure seems to be a lot of disagreement about how much and where some very talented yet young homegrown pitchers will be playing in ‘24. 
Canterino is healthy. He may be the 6th starter and we may have a 6 man rotation in April. He may be a piggyback to Varland in game 5. He might be the opening day starter for the Saints. We will find out soon enough. As long as his arm doesn’t fatigue, he will be a Twin because he has got the talent to be in MLB. He will be here in April or May.

Martin has more than a 50% chance to make opening day. He will be an outstanding rookie and he will be scoring alot of runs for the twins in ‘24. 
Lee will be up sooner than most think, The kid is for real and mgmnt wont have a choice. He will be a long time centerpiece in our infield no later than May ‘24.  Mgmnt will figure out where to put everyone. His bat and his D play will get him to MLB with or without injuries to teammates. 

Festa will be a mid season call up. When he gets here, he won’t go back down. Some will wonder why he didn’t arrive sooner. He needs to add better control to his resume. 

C. Lewis will also be a mid/late season call up when guys need rest. His stuff is for real. 
SWR is a wild card. He might be in a taxi back and forth across the river if injuries plague the Twins.

Severino and Carmago will be in the river taxi ride as well when guys get dinged up. Both may be on the season ending roster and be solid contributors but that means established vets had a real bad ‘24. 
that leaves Erod. He might be our Evan Carter guy. He LOVES the spotlight as much as Royce. He is so young and so smooth tho. Fast forward to September and that kid will be the shiney new toy ready for a deep playoff run. Kep, it was nice to watch you play for the last decade. We wish you well in ‘25. 
2024 is going to be a great rookie class. This is why the FO is bz signing minor league fill in talent. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Maybe eventually. Not in 2024. I want Lewis to have a run of playing somewhere, being comfortable, and staying healthy. 
2b maybe? 1b? Somewhere. His bat will play, and frankly I like his glove more than Julien’s too. Maybe that moves Julien to dh or left or something, but Lee will be up some how 

2024 should be very interesting as far as watching who develops and shows the skills needed for specific positions. I am keeping an open mind. Why? Because when I watched Julien early last season i thought he played frightened in the field, frankly he was close to brutal. The last two plus months Julien calmed down and not only did he make the plays but we began to see some range too. He still has a ways to go but the improvement was real. Lewis looks pretty beefy. He has a good arm and fair quickness for third base. I do think he would play a good first base. Still, Lewis is an open book with very little time behind him at the MLB level. His bat looked good, for sure. I saw Brooks Lee quite a bit and he is steady at shortstop. I don't think it is fair to compare him to Correa. Lee is still getting better. These three should show their talents in multiple ways this season and perhaps they all fit in the same infield. I suspect that Alex Kirilloff is aware of the task ahead for him and he will have quite a bit to say about how the infield shakes out in the coming year. Health, as always, is a critical point but the development of Lee, Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff could be fun. Oh, we might want to remember Jose Miranda as well.

[terrydactyls]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think Canterino can throw 175 innings in a season (not that anyone else in MLB does that anymore). 

Isn't Canterino a product of the Rice University pitching mill?  They probably had him throw 175 innings each month.  😁

[TwinsDr2021]

Canterino has pitched three games in professional baseball that he went 5 innings and that was in 2019. And the expectation is he can make a minimum of 25 starts and get to 125 innings this year? There is no chance the Twins put him out as a starter and let that happen, regardless if it is in the minors or majors. I though all the data talked about a 30% or something increase each year and now the analytic Twins are going to throw that out? 50 - 70 innings this year should be the goal 100- 125 next year and after that what every amount he earns. I would much rather have him in the majors learning how to get major league hitters out then building up his arm in the minors.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Not if a player is ready. You make room at that point right?

The answer is not a black and white given all the circumstances that go into the decision of when to promote a prospect.  However, if you look at recent twins history and the history of every other team around the league, teams find a spot for players when they are ready.  The trend is becoming even more aggressive.  This is especially true with position players.  The Twins found room for Arraez and Lewis as soon as they were ready.  Julien has taken Polanco’s spot.  He is the starting 2B.

Why is this true?  Because the single most important aspect of building a winning team is developing prospects.  This is true for any team.  Just look at the Dodgers vs the Yankees right now and it becomes increasing important as revenue is reduced.  The 2nd greatest contributor to building a winner (historically) has been trading for prospects.  This reality drives the practices of teams like the A’s, Ray’s and Guardians and you have seen it lately from the reds and Orioles.  

The Ray’s traded Willy Adames at the end of May to make room for Wander Franco.  They did not even wait for the deadline.  Some fans are always going to hate trading an established player.  There were people here who insisted we should have kept Donaldson and Urshela.  Some still complain about Rosario even though he has been mostly terrible since leaving.  The Rays replaced Adames with an equal or better player and improved their team for several years by getting Drew Rassmussen.  The team is obviously better for it.  The best case scenario for any team, especially a team in the bottom two-thirds of revenue is to replace a veteran with an equal or better young player.  That player will contribute for a longer period of time, be injured less, cost less, and hopefully bring back another player that contributes.  It is the ideal scenario.  So, yes, you make room when a player is truly ready.

[tony&rodney]

The idea of making room for a young prospect who is ready to make significant contributions is pretty common when the player being replaced is injured or declining in productivity. A really good example is Arraez coming into the lineup for Schoop or Julien being called up to fill a spot for an injured Polanco.

Where things get complicated is when a prospect is ready and the positions are filled with young players just getting established and developing themsleves. The future is unknown, but all of Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, and Lewis are young and have potential right now to produce. If these guys are all producing it makes opportunity less obvious and that is a very real scenario for Brooks Lee this summer. 

I can easily see both Kirilloff and Julien improving much more rapidly than expected by many fans, although injuries and the unknown always remain. The young pitchers can get opportunities for a start here and there, provide valuable relief innings, and be optioned if they struggle or are not needed for a stretch. Positions players usually need a little more rope because no batter goes day after day without having an 0-4 occasionally. Farmer and Polanco are ideal players to fill the lineup in the field from time to time or in Jorge's case DH as well. The Twins infield should be tough to crack this season.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The idea of making room for a young prospect who is ready to make significant contributions is pretty common when the player being replaced is injured or declining in productivity. A really good example is Arraez coming into the lineup for Schoop or Julien being called up to fill a spot for an injured Polanco.

Where things get complicated is when a prospect is ready and the positions are filled with young players just getting established and developing themsleves. The future is unknown, but all of Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, and Lewis are young and have potential right now to produce. If these guys are all producing it makes opportunity less obvious and that is a very real scenario for Brooks Lee this summer. 

I can easily see both Kirilloff and Julien improving much more rapidly than expected by many fans, although injuries and the unknown always remain. The young pitchers can get opportunities for a start here and there, provide valuable relief innings, and be optioned if they struggle or are not needed for a stretch. Positions players usually need a little more rope because no batter goes day after day without having an 0-4 occasionally. Farmer and Polanco are ideal players to fill the lineup in the field from time to time or in Jorge's case DH as well. The Twins infield should be tough to crack this season.

There is the dh and outfield spots to move guys around IF everyone is healthy. 
When Lee is ready, he will be up. That’s not a bad thing 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, Karbo said:

Lee is an interesting candidate for trade IMO. He wouldn't have a spot on the IF unless a couple guys go down. I would think he could fetch a healthy return. Is there any chance the Twins might think of moving him to OF?

Can’t imagine they move Lee. I do think he’ll be a depth guy after the deadline…….they may be able to move Farmer then?

In ‘25, based on projections from articles here, Lee is looking like his best spot is 3B. If so, I like Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF & leave Julien at 2B. We’ll see.

[DJL44]

I keep waiting for the announcement that they have convinced Carlos Correa to waive his no-trade clause and he's being sent to a team with a bigger payroll. That might be next winter to make room for Brooks Lee.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Canterino has pitched three games in professional baseball that he went 5 innings and that was in 2019. And the expectation is he can make a minimum of 25 starts and get to 125 innings this year? There is no chance the Twins put him out as a starter and let that happen, regardless if it is in the minors or majors. I though all the data talked about a 30% or something increase each year and now the analytic Twins are going to throw that out? 50 - 70 innings this year should be the goal 100- 125 next year and after that what every amount he earns. I would much rather have him in the majors learning how to get major league hitters out then building up his arm in the minors.

Ober went from 72.2 to 167. That's a little more than 30%, no?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

There is the dh and outfield spots to move guys around IF everyone is healthy. 
When Lee is ready, he will be up. That’s not a bad thing 

Do you expect Lee to put up better numbers than 2021 Miranda or 2023 Wallner? They weren't up when they were ready. The Twins won't sacrifice depth for anyone. Ober wasn't up when he was ready last year. Injuries or failed MLB production are a needed part of this equation as well. They've already tried Julien in the OF and clearly didn't think it worked well since he's never gone back. 

If Kepler and Polanco are still on this roster on opening day Brooks Lee has a very tough road to MLB playing time. He's not replacing Farmer as the bench option. It will take injuries or poor performance to get him his shot. Now those things are very likely to happen so the door is almost guaranteed to be opened at some point in 2024, but there is far more to the equation than simply Brooks Lee being ready.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Do you expect Lee to put up better numbers than 2021 Miranda or 2023 Wallner? They weren't up when they were ready. The Twins won't sacrifice depth for anyone. Ober wasn't up when he was ready last year. Injuries or failed MLB production are a needed part of this equation as well. They've already tried Julien in the OF and clearly didn't think it worked well since he's never gone back. 

If Kepler and Polanco are still on this roster on opening day Brooks Lee has a very tough road to MLB playing time. He's not replacing Farmer as the bench option. It will take injuries or poor performance to get him his shot. Now those things are very likely to happen so the door is almost guaranteed to be opened at some point in 2024, but there is far more to the equation than simply Brooks Lee being ready.

Yes, over both 2021 Miranda and possibly 2023 Wallner. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yes, over both 2021 Miranda and possibly 2023 Wallner. 

Well he's got 229 points of AAA OPS to go so there's some work to be done. And has to literally double his wRC+. (Lee was 78, 2021 Miranda was 156)

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Well he's got 229 points of AAA OPS to go so there's some work to be done. And has to literally double his wRC+. (Lee was 78, 2021 Miranda was 156)

38 games at AAA told you the entire story for Lee huh?

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The answer is not a black and white given all the circumstances that go into the decision of when to promote a prospect.  However, if you look at recent twins history and the history of every other team around the league, teams find a spot for players when they are ready.  The trend is becoming even more aggressive.  This is especially true with position players.  The Twins found room for Arraez and Lewis as soon as they were ready.  Julien has taken Polanco’s spot.  He is the starting 2B.

Why is this true?  Because the single most important aspect of building a winning team is developing prospects.  This is true for any team.  Just look at the Dodgers vs the Yankees right now and it becomes increasing important as revenue is reduced.  The 2nd greatest contributor to building a winner (historically) has been trading for prospects.  This reality drives the practices of teams like the A’s, Ray’s and Guardians and you have seen it lately from the reds and Orioles.  

The Ray’s traded Willy Adames at the end of May to make room for Wander Franco.  They did not even wait for the deadline.  Some fans are always going to hate trading an established player.  There were people here who insisted we should have kept Donaldson and Urshela.  Some still complain about Rosario even though he has been mostly terrible since leaving.  The Rays replaced Adames with an equal or better player and improved their team for several years by getting Drew Rassmussen.  The team is obviously better for it.  The best case scenario for any team, especially a team in the bottom two-thirds of revenue is to replace a veteran with an equal or better young player.  That player will contribute for a longer period of time, be injured less, cost less, and hopefully bring back another player that contributes.  It is the ideal scenario.  So, yes, you make room when a player is truly ready.

I think we need to define some things here. The Twins didn't hand Arraez, Lewis, or Julien jobs over healthy players. That's my read on what people are saying. If Lee is ready the Twins will move healthy players around to get him to the big league team. I don't remember any recent situations where that's happened. Arraez got his shot when Schoop got hurt. Lewis got his when Correa got hurt. Julien got his when Gordon got hurt (I mean they didn't even give him a job over Nick Gordon!). Miranda had one of the best minor league seasons in Twins history in 2021 and they didn't even hand him an opening day 2022 job let alone give him a shot in 2021. Wallner didn't get his shot until Joey freaking Gallo got hurt.

So we need to define what we're really talking about here. I don't see any argument for the Twins moving a healthy player to put Lee on the team. But when someone gets hurt, if Lee has shown he's ready, he'll get his shot and then changes may be made from there. But there's no real evidence at all of the Twins moving healthy starters for prospects who are deemed ready.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

38 games at AAA told you the entire story for Lee huh?

If the Twins are going to move a healthy MLB starter off their starting spot, especially when those starters are either young, core pieces or a $33 million shortstop Lee better be putting up better numbers than he did. I'm just saying expectations need to be tempered. Can you name 1 instance under this current FO that the Twins moved a healthy starter off their spot to call up a prospect to give them their first shot? And you claimed Lee was going to do outdo 2021 Miranda who had a .960 OPS and 156 wRC+ at AAA. You're taking an incredibly aggressive stance with these claims. I'm providing pretty simple rebuttals. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'm really hoping and almost expecting that Lee will be ready and on the MLB roster by midseason. Having said that, we all need to pump the brakes on Lee a little bit because he hasn't yet shown he can hit AAA pitching or Spring Training MLB pitching. he had a .731 OPS in AAA last year and hit under  .200 in ST last year -  .159/,213/.205 (.418) in 44 ABs to be precise. 44 is more more ABs than most guys get in ST so you can tell the Twins were trying to get a read on his readiness. He's much better than that and will be a good player at least when he develops but he hasn't developed yet. Let's wait until he has at least a solid Spring Training and some good AAA weeks before trying to find a way to cram him on the roster. I think the best case scenario is he has a solid ST and 2-3 months of .750 plus OPS work in St. Paul, someone gets hurt, traded, or just is ineffective, and then he comes up. To me, the more likely scenario is that he debuts in July or August and is in consideration for a regular job in 2025. 

We don't need to make machinations to get Brooks lee on the 26 man roster yet for the simple reason that he hasn't earned it.  I would be worried if the Twins go into 2024 counting on someone with his current track record as a regular contributor on the MLB roster. We're better than that. He'll get his shot but he has to earn it first. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins are going to move a healthy MLB starter off their starting spot, especially when those starters are either young, core pieces or a $33 million shortstop Lee better be putting up better numbers than he did. I'm just saying expectations need to be tempered. Can you name 1 instance under this current FO that the Twins moved a healthy starter off their spot to call up a prospect to give them their first shot? And you claimed Lee was going to do outdo 2021 Miranda who had a .960 OPS and 156 wRC+ at AAA. You're taking an incredibly aggressive stance with these claims. I'm providing pretty simple rebuttals. 

I think of it as, Correa is going to play 130 (or more) games at SS, hopefully Lewis plays 140 games at 3B and 1B and 2B and DH will all be guys who can rotate around. Same with the outfield. I'd imagine the Twins would be very happy with a number of guys getting 500 plate appearances right?

There will be at bats for players that are going well. 

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think we need to define some things here. The Twins didn't hand Arraez, Lewis, or Julien jobs over healthy players. That's my read on what people are saying. If Lee is ready the Twins will move healthy players around to get him to the big league team. I don't remember any recent situations where that's happened. Arraez got his shot when Schoop got hurt. Lewis got his when Correa got hurt. Julien got his when Gordon got hurt (I mean they didn't even give him a job over Nick Gordon!). Miranda had one of the best minor league seasons in Twins history in 2021 and they didn't even hand him an opening day 2022 job let alone give him a shot in 2021. Wallner didn't get his shot until Joey freaking Gallo got hurt.

So we need to define what we're really talking about here. I don't see any argument for the Twins moving a healthy player to put Lee on the team. But when someone gets hurt, if Lee has shown he's ready, he'll get his shot and then changes may be made from there. But there's no real evidence at all of the Twins moving healthy starters for prospects who are deemed ready.

I agree with this take in general.  There is always an injury that allows players to be brought up and players get scuffled around to give players who are ready a shot.  It certainly is not as simple as player X is ready so move over player Y.  The established player has earned that spot and the prospects need to prove they deserve the spot.  They generally get an audition like Arraez and Julien.  Then once they have shown they belong, the young guys get inserted over guys like Schoop and even Polanco.  Rosters are adjusted and teams like the Rays / Guardians and some others take the opportunity to trade established players for prospects to help sustain success. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think of it as, Correa is going to play 130 (or more) games at SS, hopefully Lewis plays 140 games at 3B and 1B and 2B and DH will all be guys who can rotate around. Same with the outfield. I'd imagine the Twins would be very happy with a number of guys getting 500 plate appearances right?

There will be at bats for players that are going well. 

I fully expect Brooks Lee to debut in 2024. I don't think he's going to put up Miranda like numbers in AAA, but I think he'll improve on last year's numbers and show he's the best MLB ready IF prospect they have. And injuries are a forgone conclusion. Every team has them. The Twins will have them. And since I think he'll be the best guy available I think he'll be the one who gets the shot. I just disagree that they're going to force it while the entire MLB starting IF is healthy. They've never done that.

Now we also need to take into account what the roster actually looks like this year. Is Polanco still on it? Kepler? If those guys are both still here it makes it a lot harder for Lee to get his shot. Especially Polanco. I'd put Miranda as the first guy up if Kirilloff goes down, and maybe if Kepler or Wallner goes down depending on what Larnach is looking like (Kirilloff to OF, Miranda to 1B in that scenario). All I'm saying is that there's no precedent for this FO taking a healthy roster and moving guys around to give a prospect his first shot. No matter how well they're performing. Injuries are very much a key to Lee getting his first chance. Once he gets it the equation changes and becomes more about production as they'd then be more willing to move guys around based on the makeup of the roster as people get healthy again. I just disagree with the idea that Lee being ready is the only thing that matters.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I fully expect Brooks Lee to debut in 2024. I don't think he's going to put up Miranda like numbers in AAA, but I think he'll improve on last year's numbers and show he's the best MLB ready IF prospect they have. And injuries are a forgone conclusion. Every team has them. The Twins will have them. And since I think he'll be the best guy available I think he'll be the one who gets the shot. I just disagree that they're going to force it while the entire MLB starting IF is healthy. They've never done that.

Now we also need to take into account what the roster actually looks like this year. Is Polanco still on it? Kepler? If those guys are both still here it makes it a lot harder for Lee to get his shot. Especially Polanco. I'd put Miranda as the first guy up if Kirilloff goes down, and maybe if Kepler or Wallner goes down depending on what Larnach is looking like. All I'm saying is that there's no precedent for this FO taking a healthy roster and moving guys around to give a prospect his first shot. No matter how well they're performing. Injuries are very much a key to Lee getting his first chance. Once he gets it the equation changes and becomes more about production as they'd then be more willing to move guys around based on the makeup of the roster as people get healthy again. I just disagree with the idea that Lee being ready is the only thing that matters.

I hate to say it, but I expect Polanco to be moved. Always liked him, but that's my guess. 

I also think Miranda has a place right now as a platoon with Kirilloff at 1B, and to face lefties all the time. If he shows more than that, good. I could also see the Twins bringing in a different right handed hitter to platoon with Kirilloff, but there will be space IF Miranda is going well right?

There are guys that have things to prove. Larnach and Wallner for sure, although I think Wallner has a leg up there. I can see Kepler or Larnach getting traded too, but if they are trying to win I can see Larnach going elsewhere instead of Kepler.

I LOVE Julien's eye at the plate, and his ability to hit fastballs. He also did show growth on the defensive side. 

We'll see how it all plays out. Generally things have a way of figuring themselves out. But I don't expect them to FORCE something that isn't ready.