Can Trevor Larnach Solve His Problem with Soft Stuff?

[Hunter McCall]

With reliable corner-outfield production a question mark for the Twins heading into the 2024 season, is there any hope for a rebound from their 2018 first-round pick?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewitt, USA Today

When Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall by the Twins that year, the hope was that the Oregon State Beavers product would move quickly through the organization and provide the team with a solid power/contact combination from the left side of the plate. While Larnach has shown flashes at times, his three major-league seasons have primarily resulted in disappointment. Is there hope that Larnach can still help the Twins?

In 2023, Larnach saw five different pitches at least 94 times: four-seam fastballs (282 pitches), sliders (151 pitches), changeup (121 pitches), curveball (112 pitches), and sinker (94 pitches). Against four-seamers, Larnach had an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of .344, with a .519 xSLG (expected slugging percentage) and a 24.8% Whiff. He was also good against sinkers with a .392 xwOBA with a .370 xSLG with a 21.4% Whiff. 

Larnach’s biggest downfall has been his inability to hit breaking balls and changeups. His high overall whiff percentage of 36.5% can primarily be attributed to his struggles against non-fastballs; he has a 50% Whiff against both curveballs and sliders and a similarly high 42.6% against changeups. While his 2023 expected numbers (.390 xwOBA and .538 xSLG) were slightly higher against changeups due to a couple of long home runs and a small sample size, his overall body of work suggests he has a difficult time hitting this pitch. Even worse, however, Larnach had a .177 xwOBA and .244 xSLG against sliders and an abysmal .157 xwOBA and .161 xSLG against curveballs. 

That was a lot of numbers fired relatively fast, but to sum it up, Larnach whiffs too much against non-fastballs, and when he does make contact, it doesn't produce good results. His low chase and high walk rates suggest that he does a good job laying off these pitches when they are out of the zone, but he struggles to do damage on breaking balls that he should be able to hit.

Even without making technical adjustments, there are a couple of ways to neutralize Larnach’s current flaw of whiffing on breaking balls by changing his approach. One example is Teoscar Hernández’s 2022 season. At that time, Hernández had similarly poor numbers against breaking balls. Like Larnach, he had a high whiff rate, with very low expected production compared to his performance against other pitches. The difference is that Hernández made up for it by decimating fastballs and changeups. He took an approach that had him sell out for fastballs, at the price of whiffing against breaking balls. With that, he produced an .807 OPS with 25 home runs.

The problem with Hernández’s change of approach is that pitchers adjusted in 2023, wherein he saw a slider on 25 percent of all pitches, which was higher than his fastball percentage. With this pitching adjustment, his play steadily declined throughout the season. While it seemed to work for a while, this may not be the best long-term solution for Larnach to replicate.

Another possible adjustment Larnach could make is to find a way to focus on producing hard contact, no matter where the pitch is. Guys like Aaron Judge can get away with having a 45% whiff rate on breaking pitches, because no matter what the pitch is, he squares it up when he touches it. This is an extreme example, as Judge might be the best hitter on the planet, but if Larnach can increase his hard-hit percentage against breaking pitches, the whiff rate becomes less of an issue.

While changes may eventually fix Larnach and make him a good everyday outfielder for the Twins, history is not on his side. Guys like Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Miguel Sanó, Joey Gallo, and Keston Hiura, to name a few recent cases, have all seen similar issues catch up with them and hinder their career projection. This doesn’t bode well for Larnach if he fails to adjust and fix his problems. He has enough power to help offset a higher whiff rate, but at this point he's not doing enough against non-fastballs to deter pitchers from throwing them. There’s still time for Larnach to figure it out, but he must drastically improve his approach against breaking pitches.

Will Larnach provide value for the Twins in 2024 and beyond, or are his days numbered? Let me know your thoughts on Larnach and his future with the team in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[arby58]

There isn't a lot to give you confidence that Larnach will figure it out. Besides the hitting aspect, both Kepler and Wallner are better outfielders and baserunners. On the hitting side, Larnach's career OPS+, with over 600 at bats, is 95. He's also stuck a bit in that all three (including Kepler and Wallner) are left-handed hitters, and Larnach performs abysmally against left handed pitchers (his small sample size OPS last year was .412, and for his career it is .569). He probably only gets ABs against right handed pitchers as the DH or if either of the other corner outfielders needs a day off. Sure, he hits AAA pitching well, but that doesn't seem to translate to the MLB level.

[PatG]

Have Larnach play Pepper an hour a day, with pitcher just throwing (slow) breaking balls.

This activity helps the batter with the small muscles of the hands, arms and shoulders.  It is also a concentration exercise for the brain (prob the most important); the batter "sees" the pitchers arm going through with a "curve ball" motion.

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

There isn't a lot to give you confidence that Larnach will figure it out. Besides the hitting aspect, both Kepler and Wallner are better outfielders and baserunners. On the hitting side, Larnach's career OPS, with over 600 at bats, is 95. He's also stuck a bit in that all three (including Kepler and Wallner) are left-handed hitters, and Larnach performs abysmally against left handed pitchers (his small sample size OPS last year was .412, and for his career it is .569). He probably only gets ABs against right handed pitchers as the DH or if either of the other corner outfielders needs a day off. Sure, he hits AAA pitching well, but that doesn't seem to translate to the MLB level.

I agree that I doubt he will figure it out. The overwhelming history forecasts this as well. I hope he does, but I don't see it.

[Fatbat]

Someone need to develop a batting simulator (like golf) that helps a batter become proficient at adjustment to different pitches.  

[Oldgoat_MN]

I was a Larnach fan and expected great things. I've pretty much thrown in the towel at this point. 

He knows what the problem is and he apparently cannot fix it. Too bad. I thought it was a good draft pick when the Twins selected him.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Someone need to develop a batting simulator (like golf) that helps a batter become proficient at adjustment to different pitches.  

They have them already, actually. They have video screens that show the pitcher going through his windup and "throwing" a pitch that comes from a machine. The machine can be set to specific pitcher's spin and velo or to just different pitch types. Can have it throw all breaking balls or add in fastballs or whatever they want. It's pretty cool stuff.

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They have them already, actually. They have video screens that show the pitcher going through his windup and "throwing" a pitch that comes from a machine. The machine can be set to specific pitcher's spin and velo or to just different pitch types. Can have it throw all breaking balls or add in fastballs or whatever they want. It's pretty cool stuff.

Lock Larnach in that room until spring training starts 😂

[Linus]

It’s a problem as old as baseball itself and has been the downfall of many hitters. My only slim hope is that he’s been so injured he hasn’t had a consistent long stretch of playing time which would help him adjust if that is possible. Having said that I wouldn’t count on him coming through. 

[saviking]

row an excellent juicy fastball to register a strike.  Pitchers seldom threw Sano a strike, yet he was always hacking. He should have just let them throw the outside sliders until they either walked him or tried their fastball. Bottom line is it comes down to plate discipline and the willingness to hit with a two-strike count. 

[saviking]

I would love to see someone study what percentage of any off-speed pitch is thrown for a strike. In the study, you would add any pitch thrown outside the strike zone, even if a batter hit it.

I'm going to guess they throw two balls for every strike, which puts the pitcher at a disadvantage if you sit on the fastball. 

[Dman]

Call me overly optimistic but his walk rate gives me hope.  As noted he does need to make more contact as the K rate is too high.  Still he feels like a tweak away from being just fine.  I don't see star player value but I think he can be league average or better in time. Just a few more hits and few less whiffs and his line looks much better at the MLB level.

I am close to giving up on Larnach but there still is time for him to turn things around. If doesn't then with Rosario and Rodriguez almost ready and Walker Jenkins possibly not far behind there will be other options soon enough.  2024 feels like his make or break year as a Twin and possibly his career.  Hopefully he conquers the things holding him back.

[CRF]

If he can't hit a breaking ball, and/or the Twins don't think he can hit a breaking ball...then just trade the guy. Give him a chance somewhere else and start to clear out the log jam we have with lefty outfielders. Start moving some of these pieces instead of stock piling them. 

[DJL44]

I think he can get better and it doesn't take much improvement to get him back on an MLB roster. Can he get enough better that he can be an above average offensive contributor as an outfielder? That's more doubtful.

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, Linus said:

It’s a problem as old as baseball itself and has been the downfall of many hitters. My only slim hope is that he’s been so injured he hasn’t had a consistent long stretch of playing time which would help him adjust if that is possible. Having said that I wouldn’t count on him coming through. 

Agreed - an MLB adage that’s over 100 years old……..Clint Eastwood & Amy Adams made a movie about a LH stud prospect never learning to hit a curveball & how he was “over projected” in the draft. Not earth shattering stuff……….good health & keep working is the only productive path forward. Fingers crossed!

[JD-TWINS]

43 minutes ago, saviking said:

row an excellent juicy fastball to register a strike.  Pitchers seldom threw Sano a strike, yet he was always hacking. He should have just let them throw the outside sliders until they either walked him or tried their fastball. Bottom line is it comes down to plate discipline and the willingness to hit with a two-strike count. 

Recognition is a pretty big key in hitting ……guys guess on certain counts or on what a guy will throw, & where, based on previous matchups. Can’t just assume balls will be thrown and then be able to react to a 95MPH fastball - the hitter assumes/sees fastball and it’s a slider 8” off the plate. That’s why guys hit .250 instead of .400, it ain’t easy.

[miller761]

Every year a few guys figure it out and become productive major leaguers. See Brent Rooker. That is the difference between AAAA and major league hitters. I am rooting for the guy and won't give up on him until the Twins do. Did i read that he has 1 option remaining?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Larnach has shown signs of being a legitimate MLer. Certainly won't give up on him yet.  He offers good depth.  Nothing saying Martin, Rodriguez, Jenkins will be any better. 2024 will be a big year for him as well as Kiriloff imo. They both need to prove themselves or we might need to think of trading or moving on.

[Jocko87]

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

If he can't hit a breaking ball, and/or the Twins don't think he can hit a breaking ball...then just trade the guy. Give him a chance somewhere else and start to clear out the log jam we have with lefty outfielders. Start moving some of these pieces instead of stock piling them. 

The unfortunate problem is his value has diminished to the point where it almost doesn't pay to dump him.

[Hunter McCall]

2 hours ago, miller761 said:

Every year a few guys figure it out and become productive major leaguers. See Brent Rooker. That is the difference between AAAA and major league hitters. I am rooting for the guy and won't give up on him until the Twins do. Did i read that he has 1 option remaining?

Brent Rooker is an interesting case that I didn't really look at when I wrote this article. Interestingly enough, Rooker actually worse against breaking and offspeed pitches in 2023 than he had every been before. The difference is he cremated fastballs. In 2023, Rooker had a 62.8%(!!!) Whiff rate against curveballs. He was also over 50% against sliders and changeups. He hit the heck out of 4 seamers and cutters, which is where a majority of his production came from. It will be interesting to see if pitchers adjust to him in 2024 and start throwing him a lot less fastballs.

[Major League Ready]

He was almost exactly league average last year.  His OPS was .726 and wRC+ was 99.  Are we being a little hard on him.   Seems pretty reasonable he could make some tweaks and be above average.  That might look pretty good as a bridge to Rodriquez and Jenkins.

[joefish]

If he doesn't drown in the number swamp... sure, he might make a step forward. I hope he becomes a superstar. 

[jdgoin]

Larnach has always been an interesting case. When I first saw him in 2019 in what was then A+ Ft. Myers, he was more opposite field oriented. His natural swing took him from the SS side of 2B towards the LF. You could see in BP they were working on him being able to pull the ball more with the thought this would unlock more power in a quicker fashion. He was a hitter who possessed power metrics below the surface. He had feel for his barrel and adjustability to his swing. There was still a little contact concern at Oregon State.

Now he is much more flyball-oriented to the pull side now then when I saw him early in his pro career. The power has increased greatly. His plate discipline has remained good. The contact abilities have obviously gone down hill. This was a bat that I thought would initially be a relatively high average/high OBP guy, a bunch of doubles with average HR numbers until he learned how and when to pull the ball. I'm not sure if the pull process was sped up to his detriment or not. But he doesn't look like the same hitter.

He also has never really been able to stay at a level long enough to fail, figure things out, and then succeed. Some of it was Covid. Now. he will be 27 to start the season. Not sure how this one plays out but it doesn't look great with his current approach.

[Twinsrtheworst]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They have them already, actually. They have video screens that show the pitcher going through his windup and "throwing" a pitch that comes from a machine. The machine can be set to specific pitcher's spin and velo or to just different pitch types. Can have it throw all breaking balls or add in fastballs or whatever they want. It's pretty cool stuff.

Yes!  Got invited into the cages in spring training last year.  I was amazed.  I wish my golf simulater gave me the data and charts they were getting threw this tech.  Very cool.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Yes!  Got invited into the cages in spring training last year.  I was amazed.  I wish my golf simulater gave me the data and charts they were getting threw this tech.  Very cool.

That must've been a very cool experience. The tech in the sports world now is crazy!

[JoeCool]

I think TL will be a solid big league ballplayer when it is all said and done. He is still young and learning to adapt and I get the sense he could be a later bloomer.  

I don’t see him as a knock the cover off the ball guy, but could see him evolving to a solid Nick Markakis kind of player with a little more development.  I think the Twins swing for the fences too much rather than taking what the pitchers give you and getting on base.  Just making contact and putting the ball in play forces defenses to work. I think they need to focus less on power and more the fundamentals.  With the bases loaded or a runner on the pitcher is more forced to throw strikes as well.  

[Cris E]

On 1/10/2024 at 8:55 AM, saviking said:

I would love to see someone study what percentage of any off-speed pitch is thrown for a strike. In the study, you would add any pitch thrown outside the strike zone, even if a batter hit it.

I'm going to guess they throw two balls for every strike, which puts the pitcher at a disadvantage if you sit on the fastball. 

Well there are percentages in the aggregate and then there are what individual hitters see. When there's no book on a hitter then the aggregate will apply, But when it's utterly clear that someone can only hit FB or never recognizes a change or whatever then professional pitchers will ruthlessly exploit that.  Larnach may only ever face "tease" fastballs to try to get him to expand the zone until he demonstrates that he can hit the breaking stuff and offspeed pitches in the zone.  If he, for example, slows down his bat and starts hitting everything away then the pitchers will adjust again and bust him up and in. It's a constant battle of adjustments and he still has to make his first changes to prove he belongs.

I say he's still quite tradable.  MN could take lottery ticket young arms or an injury-prone vet at little salary from a weaker team with playing time to let him work it out. PIT, OAK and COL all need talent without high costs and would happily take him in. 

[arby58]

On 1/10/2024 at 9:16 AM, Dman said:

Call me overly optimistic but his walk rate gives me hope.  As noted he does need to make more contact as the K rate is too high.  Still he feels like a tweak away from being just fine.  I don't see star player value but I think he can be league average or better in time. Just a few more hits and few less whiffs and his line looks much better at the MLB level.

I am close to giving up on Larnach but there still is time for him to turn things around. If doesn't then with Rosario and Rodriguez almost ready and Walker Jenkins possibly not far behind there will be other options soon enough.  2024 feels like his make or break year as a Twin and possibly his career.  Hopefully he conquers the things holding him back.

I had the same hope regarding walk rate last year. We will see. His 'not figured it out yet' is why I don't believe the Twins will trade Kepler. Polanco, Farmer, maybe even one of Lee or Julien, but their outfield depth is a year away.

[arby58]

On 1/10/2024 at 11:42 AM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Larnach has shown signs of being a legitimate MLer. Certainly won't give up on him yet.  He offers good depth.  Nothing saying Martin, Rodriguez, Jenkins will be any better. 2024 will be a big year for him as well as Kiriloff imo. They both need to prove themselves or we might need to think of trading or moving on.

The difference between the two is Kirilloff has proven to be a better MLB hitter. His OPS+ last year was 117, and for his career it is 104. Larnach was 98 and 95. That's above average versus below average in about the same number of at bats. The issue with Kirilloff is injuries rather than hitting ability.