What Does a Full Season of Royce Lewis Look Like?

[Ted Schwerzler]

When Opening Day rolls around in 2024, the Minnesota Twins will have Royce Lewis in the starting lineup. That will be the first major-league Opening Day of his career, and the hope is that he will follow it up with something like another 150 games after that. How good could that be?

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Returning from a second knee injury, Royce Lewis was a bit behind when spring training kicked off in 2023. He wasn’t going to be an option for Rocco Baldelli on Opening Day, and despite his being ready to rock, the club was always going to force him to take it slow.

This time around, Lewis will come into the season with no restrictions, and he is fresh off a rookie campaign that had him looking like one of the sport’s blossoming young stars. Lewis owned a great .309/.372/.548 slash line across 58 games during the regular season, and then he turned into a machine during the playoffs. It was almost like he was truly a superhero, and watching it unfold was a joyous sight to behold.

The last time Lewis played more than 100 games in a season was in 2019, when he split time between High A and Double A. Fluke injuries have cost him time over the past couple of campaigns, but his work ethic has him in position to be both healthy and strong. Now that he has experienced significant run at the highest level, he should be equipped to unleash his game.

Steamer projections at FanGraphs have Lewis playing in 138 games this season. Checking in with 3.8 fWAR, he would nearly be doubling his production (in limited action) last season. It’s probably fair to assume there will be a slight deflation in his offensive numbers, given how otherworldly he was as a rookie, but the .270/.337/.482 for which he's projected is beyond respectable. Twenty-eight home runs would be almost double the 15 he crushed last season, and 80 RBI would be a nice number for the Twins to add to their lineup.

From a high-level view, it seems like that sort of season would be a fair projection from Lewis. I’m not sure he will be a high-average guy, despite the .309 mark he tallied a season ago. A lot of that will hinge on his adjustments in the box, but he's already demonstrated the command of the strike zone needed to survive seeing the league a second or third time. Over his final 32 games after returning from injury, Lewis owned a 27-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which was lightyears better than the 28-to-3 he had when he hit the injured list in July.

We've seen Lewis transform his game over the years, and tweaks to his swing have now taken root. He is relatively quiet in the box, and his power production has bloomed as he has filled out. Putting up 30 homers over an entire season shouldn’t be unexpected, but he'll also hit his share of doubles. Lewis didn’t have many opportunities to flash his speed last year, but the wheels are also part of his game.

Playing less than one-third of the season at the big-league level last year, he gave Minnesota just a glimpse of what an unleashed Lewis could look like. Everything about him is what you would dream of from a first-overall draft pick, and making his first All-Star team in 2024 would mark a clear beginning for a new phase of his career.

Lewis has been the talk of Twins Territory for years now, similar to Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano before him, but he is still just 24 years old. Playing his age-25 season in 2024, this is a player with plenty of development and growth still in front of him. If you’ve been betting against Lewis to this point, you haven’t been watching. If his highlight-laden postseason wasn’t enough to convince you, get ready to receive a full 550 plate appearances of supporting evidence.

Carlos Correa and Lewis could find themselves creating the best left-side-of-the-infield in baseball this year, and watching the show should be a ton of fun. What questions or tantalizing possibilities draw your attention, as you ponder Lewis's coming season?

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[roger]

I will be disappointed if his numbers don’t exceed those listed above.  Expect he would also be disappointed.

[ashbury]

No Twin player has started 140 games since Paul Molitor was manager.  Expectations for raw/counting totals should be kept in check.  "Full season" doesn't mean what it used to.

/ edit - thanks to the correction below, I should note that this pertains to starts at a position. DH starts raise the number to 150.  I think my point remains that 150 is a stretch for any Twins player, especially one who had trouble staying on the field in 2023 even after coming off the 60-day IL for his knee surgery.

[mnfireman]

Well his 162 game projection is 39 HR, 132 RBI and a slash-line of .307/.364/.548 (.913 OPS)... 

I think 30-35 HR, 100-110 RBI and slash line of .300/.400/.500 (.900 OPS) is a fair projection, maybe a little high, but fair.

[mnfireman]

38 minutes ago, ashbury said:

No Twin player has started 140 games since Paul Molitor was manager.  Expectations for raw/counting totals should be kept in check.  "Full season" doesn't mean what it used to.

Jorge Polanco - 2021 (145) & 2019 (150)

Only one player, but 2X

The team did have 4 players start 52 of 60 (140/162) games in 2020 - Rosario, Polanco, Sano, and Cruz. Plus  Gonzalez started 51 of 60 (138/162).

[terrydactyls]

In my mind, I see Lewis' biggest impact being the energy, enthusiasm, and joy to the field every day that may propel other Twins (especially the younger Twins) to also push forward to new heights.

[ashbury]

39 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Jorge Polanco - 2021 (145) & 2019 (150)

Good catch.  I took my totals from fielding starts listed on b-r.com, but that overlooks games DHing.

[CRF]

I'm not smart enough to know, but I sure as hell want to find out. 

[Blyleven2011]

Lewis can be a game changer , with his enthusiasm for the game if healthy  , he definitely will surpass the 100 rbi and 100 runs if healthy  , the way he was performing before the injury that shut him down the last couple òf weeks , he was on pace to have the most rbi's  for the Twins in alot less games ... 

I'm not sure if he hits over 30 homeruns but it's the clutch hitting ,  rbi's and runs scored that have been missing in the lineup for some years now  ...

Don't hold Lewis back And let the fans enjoy , let him stay at third base and I'm looking forward to seeing him as a possible mvp player ...

 

 

[Fatbat]

The sky is definitely the limit for Royce.  His positivity will likely add  production to everyone in the clubhouse.  I hope he rubs off on the laid back AK the most.  Not many players can pencil in a 3/4/5 slash line but Royce has the tools to do it in a large sample size! 

[darin617]

You could make one about Buxton. The only problem it make take 18 years to get the equivalent of a full season.

[Chachi]

8 Grand Slams.

[Jocko87]

An offseason spent not rehabbing but instead working on getting better is very exciting.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

An offseason spent not rehabbing but instead working on getting better is very exciting.

He built up his body pretty good doing that rehab though...

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Lewis can be a game changer , with his enthusiasm for the game if healthy  , he definitely will surpass the 100 rbi and 100 runs if healthy  , the way he was performing before the injury that shut him down the last couple òf weeks , he was on pace to have the most rbi's  for the Twins in alot less games ... 

I'm not sure if he hits over 30 homeruns but it's the clutch hitting ,  rbi's and runs scored that have been missing in the lineup for some years now  ...

Don't hold Lewis back And let the fans enjoy , let him stay at third base and I'm looking forward to seeing him as a possible mvp player ...

 

 

Beyond the #s that he's capable of achieving. Intangibles are what going to separate him from the rest. Like character, passion for the game, leadership, and instinct. I heard that Royce is still qualified for the ROY award next year (is that right?) If so he could win both the ROY & MVP award the same year.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Lewis can be a game changer , with his enthusiasm for the game if healthy  , he definitely will surpass the 100 rbi and 100 runs if healthy  , the way he was performing before the injury that shut him down the last couple òf weeks , he was on pace to have the most rbi's  for the Twins in alot less games ... 

I'm not sure if he hits over 30 homeruns but it's the clutch hitting ,  rbi's and runs scored that have been missing in the lineup for some years now  ...

Don't hold Lewis back And let the fans enjoy , let him stay at third base and I'm looking forward to seeing him as a possible mvp player ...

 

 

RBI only come in quantity if there is some on base in front of a batter.

Not a one man show.

His attitude counts greatly.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Beyond the #s that he's capable of achieving. Intangibles are what going to separate him from the rest. Like character, passion for the game, leadership, and instinct. I heard that Royce is still qualified for the ROY award next year (is that right?) If so he could win both the ROY & MVP award the same year.

I believe he lost his rookie status by both time on the roster and ABs in 2023. But not by a whole lot. 110+ ABs over the threshold. 

[The Mad King]

I just want to see him stay healthy for the year, the numbers will fall in line

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Beyond the #s that he's capable of achieving. Intangibles are what going to separate him from the rest. Like character, passion for the game, leadership, and instinct. I heard that Royce is still qualified for the ROY award next year (is that right?) If so he could win both the ROY & MVP award the same year.

Yes he's lost his eligibility for rookie of the year  ...

I'll take his ceiling  as a possible mvp candidate  ...

[h2oface]

Spencer Steer on the list with Royce. Ouch.

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, h2oface said:

Spencer Steer on the list with Royce. Ouch.

It sounds like the Reds are moving Steer permanently to left field next season. 

[Doctor Wu]

A healthy year of Royce Lewis will be beyond wonderful! MVP? Well, at some point. Let's get him in the All-Star game and go from there!

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Jorge Polanco - 2021 (145) & 2019 (150)

Only one player, but 2X

The team did have 4 players start 52 of 60 (140/162) games in 2020 - Rosario, Polanco, Sano, and Cruz. Plus  Gonzalez started 51 of 60 (138/162).

One of the reasons guys don’t play 150 games anymore, or even 140……….Jorge Polanco ‘22 - 108 games…….’23 - 86 games……Career .270 hitter & in ‘22 - .235 BA ……..in ‘23 - .256 BA. Playing through injuries can lead to breakdowns and regression in numbers.

I don’t have a crystal ball and am always happy to see steady, familiar faces in the line-up. Enjoyed watching Jorge. Just pointing out he “played hurt” some & it appears to have caught up to him over past 2 seasons.

Lewis: 130-135 games ……4AB’s x 135 games = 540 AB’s for year or maybe 620 PA’s…..seems reasonable?

30 HR would be fantastic - RBI take care of themselves depending upon spot in line-up & if he hits .285 I’ll be happy!……….trying to keep an OBP of .350 or better would be assumed.

[Riverbrian]

A full season of Royce will result in a conversation for American League MVP. 

I'm not out of mind if I say that Juan Soto is a decent comp. 

[Fatbat]

I was just looking at Royce’s bio in baseball reference and it says his rookie status is in tact thru 2024. That doesn’t seem right….