Twins Continue to Roll Dice on Relief Options

[Ted Schwerzler]

This Minnesota Twins front office does not spend money on the bullpen. In an offseason in which they face stricter financial constraints, anyway, that seems unlikely to change. On which internal options can they win a roll of the dice in 2024?

Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports

Since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota Twins' front office, they have not been interested in paying for relief pitchers. The one time they did so, offering Addison Reed a two-year deal shy of $17 million, it blew up in their faces. With Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, and others among their 2024 options, it doesn’t seem likely a cost-cutting team will spend there this year.

That means Rocco Baldelli will be handed some unproven arms to fill out his bullpen, and while someone in there might become the next Brock Stewart, others will flame out. The 40-man roster is flush with options, but minor-league contracts will also bring in external candidates. Who ends up going north for Opening Day remains to be seen.

Here are some names to watch:

Brock Stewart
A 40-man member for Minnesota already, Stewart is a lock as a late-inning reliever. The problem is that he’s coming off an injury that kept him out until right before the postseason in 2023, and he has an unfortunate injury history, overall. Stewart was exceptional for the Twins last season, but he contributed just 27 2/3 innings.

If he can be healthy all season, he showed good enough stuff to slot in as Durán’s setup man. For a guy who hasn’t thrown 30 innings in a single season since 2017, though, it’s hard to project a full season of work. Minnesota did an excellent job targeting him a year ago, and what innings he does provide should be strong. The question is quantity, rather than quality.

Jorge Alcala
Over the past few seasons, no one has held down a place on the 40-man roster while producing less value than Alcalá has. He, too, has impressive talent, but it hasn't always translated to success against big-league hitters. Throwing just 17 1/3 inconsistent innings for the Twins last year, he also spent time at Triple-A. He has flashed productivity this offseason in winter league action, but it is more of the same.

If Alcalá could stay healthy, Minnesota could start to feel better about the Ryan Pressly trade. He's now arbitration-eligible, though, and the waiting game is getting old. This may be the final season in which the Twins give him a chance, but all sides are hoping that patience pays off in a big way.

Matt Canterino
Now on the 40-man roster, the former second-round pick didn’t pitch at all in 2023. Rice doesn’t have a great track record of protecting the arms and maximizing the professional futures of their pitchers, but this one could follow in the footsteps of Tyler Duffey and survive long enough to carve out a big-league career. While he was initially used as a starter, the relief route was the way to go all along.

Canterino has dealt with a lot over the past year. Losing a season to Tommy John surgery, his focus has been rehab and recovery with 2024 as a goal for his debut. When pitching previously during spring training, his stuff looked legit, and he could be a weapon as soon as the big club is ready to deploy him. The surgery doesn't take away how impressive the fastball plays up in the zone, and it definitely will remain a plus offering. Canterino could emerge as an immediate weapon in relief if a Jhoan Duran-type transition from starter to reliever is made in camp.

Jordan Balazovic
There was a time when Balazovic was the next big thing for the Twins' pitching pipeline, much like Fernando Romero, but circumstances have drastically changed. After a terrible 2022 influenced by injury, his 2023 wasn’t much better, despite making a major-league debut. His strikeout stuff from the minors didn't come with across town, and he issued free passes at ridiculous rates while giving up dingers to boot.

On the 40-man roster heading into the 2024 season, Balazovic has been formally transitioned to the pen, according to Falvey. He needs to find substantially better command, but realistically, the stuff can make him a weapon if a few tweaks are made. This switch to short relief is his last chance to be a disappointment as profound as Romero turned out to be.

Cole Sands
How Sands is utilized could be a big thing to watch for in 2024. He was handed the final bullpen spot last season over the likes of both Jeff Hoffman and Danny Coulombe. Minnesota felt a need to have a long reliever, and Sands fit the bill. As a starter, it looked like there was upside as he progressed through the system, but his stuff could play up better in the bullpen.

In 2021, Sands put up a 2.46 ERA for Double-A Wichita in 80 1/3 innings. He punched out plenty but gave up 3.9 walks per nine innings. Taking a step backward in 2022, the stuff was entirely too hittable. Sands found something that worked at Triple-A last season, but the success didn't translate to the major-league level. Going from a long man destined to eat innings to a legitimate shutdown arm would show substantial growth.

Josh Winder
Drafted as a seventh-round starter from the Virginia Military Institute, Winder took his time to show value for Minnesota. He took the ball as a starter in 11 of his 15 outings for the Twins in 2022. He provided mediocre results and did little to push the envelope for his future inclusion in the rotation.

Behind Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and even Louie Varland, Winder lingered briefly as a starting candidate. Minnesota converted him to a reliever in 2023, though, and the 34 2/3 innings he pitched in that role were unimpressive. In 2024, he'll have to find a better way to handle the vagaries of relief duty, with its unpredictable and sometimes daily schedule.

The Twins will likely target multiple arms on minor-league contracts, in hopes of making something stick. This front office has gotten things right before, but missing on Jeff Hoffman and Danny Coulombe in 2023 is an ugly stain. Hopefully, they can roll enough 7s for 2024 and target the right names to supplement the group along the way.

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[Karbo]

IMO they will sign some guy(s) with something to prove to a minor league contract with an invite to ST.

[jorgenswest]

Alcala is getting old but Pressly didn’t make an all star game until age 30 and wasn’t very effective at 28. Hendriks at 30 and with his 8th team (two stops in Toronto) before his big step forward.

I don’t think age is a worry. It is health. I would keep this talented arm on the 40 and make use of an option if necessary this year. Stewart is also often injured.

They really need Sands to step up and give the good reliable low leverage work they were getting from Pagán. Even last year Pagán did not pitch well in high leverage but he was ready to pitch every day. Where will that readiness come from this year? I am hoping on Sands.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I'd like a beefier bullpen, but outside of about a dozen relievers leaguewide, I think it's always a dice roll. These guys work off of small sample sizes and need consistent and predictable usage and I don't think you get that with players who constantly change teams, managers and ballparks.

Bring in a guy or two, but I think your best bullpens are when you finally make it click with the guys who you've had time to see where they fit into the puzzle. Rogers/May/Duffey. Perkins/Duensing/Pressly. Nathan/Guerrier/Crain. Guardado/Hawkins/Romero.

It sucks, and it's frustrating, but I think it takes some trial and error with guys you know before you get it right. Knock on wood, but they've had a couple years with some of these guys and I'm optimistic that they'll have a core they've figured out how to deploy right out of the gates this year. Bring more help in by all means, but I'm putting most of my faith in the relievers already here. 

[LonelyseatinMOA]

I have hope for Cole Sands too but his fastball is among the worst in the entire league. His splitter is nice 

[DocBauer]

I have high hopes for Canterino to remain healthy and become a weapon. I think the reports that he's going to start are just to build up strength and work on control. I'm expecting him in the pen eventually, but I'm not expecting him to break camp even with a great spring. 

I remember how good Alcala looked at the end of 2021. It felt like he had arrived. Now that he's healthy again and throwing in the high 90's, I think his winter league numbers...though obviously at a lower level than MLB...all indicate he just might be back. I'm actually counting on him making thr club, but he does have options I believe.

Can Sands's FB play up to match his breaking stuff? Can Winder's new sinking FB actually work? Velocity is great, but not when it's straight and getting hammered. Not so long ago, Balazovic had some good stuff and nice K ability. If the old version of him is still in there somewhere, it's time for him to come out now.

There's some potential there. Headrick and thr non rostered Henriquez might factor in as well. Again, I'm predicting Alcala is ready, am excited/hopeful on Canterino, but if just ONE of those other arms makes a jump we are in great shape.

Still can't believe Hoffman was let go after having such a strong camp last year. He went on to have a great season with the Phillies. Probably the best season of his career. Huge mistake by not keeping him.

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

IMO they will sign some guy(s) with something to prove to a minor league contract with an invite to ST.

Absolutely they will. That's how they landed on Stewart, and it's what Hoffman was too. Like Hoffman and Coulombe though, there's no guarantee they keep the right guys.

[roger]

Was going to add a comment.  After seeing what DocBauer said, go up two spots to read what I intended to say.

[mikelink45]

Nothing here is filled with promise and high upside.  I can only wait and see. 

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Absolutely they will. That's how they landed on Stewart, and it's what Hoffman was too. Like Hoffman and Coulombe though, there's no guarantee they keep the right guys.

Hoffman was used mostly in low leverage situations last season . Coluombe was also by the end of the season   To have used those two for the season who would have you removes from the 40 man 

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Absolutely they will. That's how they landed on Stewart, and it's what Hoffman was too. Like Hoffman and Coulombe though, there's no guarantee they keep the right guys.

Yeah, that 3.2war in 100+ RP innings that we didn’t get from Hoffman and Coulombe really hurt but it will probably come back to us in 2024 with a bunch of  innings thrown by the guys we still have.  Anything is better than the Addison Reed debacle. 

[stringer bell]

As volatile as relievers are, I think it is appropriate to use caution in acquiring bullpen arms. Looking at the results of trades and free agent signings only would increase caution in adding relief pitchers. However, counting on only pitchers within the system (and only pitchers under team control) puts a lot of strain on the bullpen. 

It seems the club is trying to get by with minimal additional salary, so they need to be right on the people they are bringing in. It is really tough to be right on most relief pitchers, so few of them are "sure things". 

[Trov]

Every season you are rolling the dice with pen guys.  Even if you go out and sign a top one, they are so risky.  Mainly because their margin for error is so small.  If a starter goes out and gives up 3 runs in 6 innings we say that is quality, to have a 4.50 ERA.  However, if a relief guy has that much of an ERA we say at best they are a back of pen guy.  We expect them to go out and never give up runs.  When they do, we hope it is when we can afford to give up 1 or 2. 

If a pen guy gives up 1 run in a 1 run game we are upset that they blew the lead.  However, if they give up 1 run in a 3 run ball game get through their inning we are fine, we say good job you did not blow the lead.  The performance may have been the same, or in example 2 maybe even worse than in example 1, but we praise the success based on the situation. 

We all know when you do not have a good pen how rough it can be.  Even worse when the pen guys blow leads in close games over and over.  We always want them to be perfect in close games and have their bad games in blow outs either way. That just cannot always be the situation. 

Take a look at Clase for Cleveland last year.  He most likely cost his team a chance at playoffs because he blew 12 saves.  He converted 44 saves, but blew 12.  He converted about 79%, but 12 times he failed his job.  Duran for us, converted 27 saves and blew 5.  he converted about 85%.  If he blew 1 more he would have been at 81%, 2 more 79%.  So not far from Clase, but Clase was asked to be better in more chances.  Clase pitched 10 more inning but 16 more games. 

Coming into the season Clase was considered a top closer, and just about any team would have wanted him, but he did not have a good season.  The point is, there is almost no one that is a for sure pen guy and you are always rolling the dice. 

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

Hoffman was used mostly in low leverage situations last season . Coluombe was also by the end of the season   To have used those two for the season who would have you removes from the 40 man 

Alcala, Moran and Sands were all on the opening day roster and had options remaining. There was a slot available by moving Canterino to the 60 day injured list. I believe Celestino was also a possibility for the 60 day IL.

[darin617]

They will add some players to the roster in mid to late January and into February. 

It's no secret that they are trying to make their off season moves by trading some players away and after that they will go dumpster diving and hopefully they can find some decent veterans for the team.

[KBJ1]

Balazovic, Sands & Winder - NO thanks!

Trade for Devin Williams and secure our pennants. 

Alcala - ugh. Meanwhile Pressley sets a record and wins TWO WS for Houston.

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Trade for Devin Williams and secure our pennants. 

IMHO the Twins have few prospects to trade and I really don’t want them to back up a Brinks truck to get a relief pitcher, although Williams is very good.

They need to solidify their rotation without giving up the farm, not an easy task, especially with the premium placed on starting pitchers.

The club has traded away good, not great, prospects to get Mahle and Jorge López and they don’t have that many left in the tier. I don’t trust anybody in the high minors to step up and fill the role that Ober had last year. Varland might be that guy, but right now he is #5 in the rotation. 

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Balazovic, Sands & Winder - NO thanks!

Alcala - ugh. Meanwhile Pressley sets a record and wins TWO WS for Houston.

It wouldn’t surprise me if one of Balazovic, Sands or Wallner stepped up this year as a reliable bullpen piece, but none of them are anything resembling a sure thing. All are adjusting from starting to bullpen and a second year in the same role might be better.

The Twins got a live arm in Alcalá, but he hasn’t been healthy for two years. It would seem he’s approaching last chance territory.