Twins Depth Will Look Different in 2024

[Ted Schwerzler]

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins acquired baseline depth at crucial positions, hoping their injuries from 2022 could be masked. That worked out wonderfully, but with payroll taking a different shape in 2024, veterans may not be the players provided as depth for the upcoming year.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

When Derek Falvey went into the offseason last year, he had a few key areas to supplement Rocco Baldelli’s roster. In looking to build the Twins while hoping to avoid being dealt massive blows by injury, he sought to bring in veterans with upside. Kyle Farmer was a starting caliber option at shortstop if Carlos Correa landed elsewhere. Joey Gallo could start in both the outfield and at first base. Willi Castro and Donovan Solano would be vital supplemental roster pieces.

The Twins acquired each of those players based on their previous track record. If the front office failed to upgrade in those positions, at the very least, they would have capable veteran options going into the 2023 season. 

The Twins organization was in a much different place last offseason, however. They had a broadcast deal that assured ownership of millions in revenue. The team has acknowledged that the 2024 payroll will be lower without it. 

Should the Twins decrease payroll by up to $25 million, as has been discussed, bringing in multiple veterans isn’t going to be an option for rotational pieces. That isn’t very pleasant by some measures, but it also reflects where the Twins organization is as a whole.

Minnesota has no reason to sign a rotational outfielder north of $10 million this offseason, and Correa is the shortstop, so Farmer at $7 million doesn’t make as much sense. The budget dropping isn’t ideal, but it was sure to happen with the emergence of young talent anyway. Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner have all taken starting roles, and barring an extension, each of them will make the major league minimum.

With how the Twins youth stepped up a season ago, fans should be excited about this prospect depth. No one within the Twins organization will ask Austin Martin or Brooks Lee to play significant roles on Opening Day. However, blocking them with a veteran making a couple of million while they are this close doesn’t make much sense either.

Minnesota tendered a deal to Castro this offseason so that he will return to his utility role. For now, Nick Gordon will remain on the roster at $1 million. Beyond that, Martin could find himself working towards that type of production after a wildly successful 2023 season. Jose Miranda has the opportunity to bounce back if he’s healthy, and Yunior Severino was recently added to the 40-man roster as well.

From a pitching perspective, more will be asked of Brent Headrick as he looks to settle in, and David Festa could be an arm that emerges from a Bailey Ober trajectory in 2024. Matt Canterino should be back and healthy, while the hope would be that Jorge Alcala or Simeon Woods Richardson becomes usable. Pablo Lopez has established the top of the rotation, and Ober, paired with Joe Ryan, makes three guarantees. Adding in Chris Paddack should stabilize things further.

Paying for free agents is a minefield. You are looking to acquire the best talent while being forced to pay for previous production. On top of that, you’re getting aging commodities, and the goal of each player is to establish stability for the longest tenure possible. Routinely bringing in a one-year hired hitman is difficult, but it works well when things turn out like Solano or Michael A. Taylor (acquired via trade).

A season ago, the Twins experienced a historic rookie class, and they got extensive production from them early and often during the season. Banking on that to repeat itself shouldn’t be the plan A. Still, in a season where Brooks Lee, Martin, Festa, Severino, Canterino, Marco Raya, and Tanner Schobel could all debut, it’s understandable to look within.

Depth is something that every organization will always place a premium on, but being able to develop it saves substantial money, and there is a much more known track record with your talent. Minnesota’s farm system is flush with near-ready players, and they could be called upon when the first opportunities arise in 2024.

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[RpR]

What depth?

With the exception of Lewis, none of the rookies has been good enough to not have to worry about ending up with some other team.

I do not venture into the pitching morass but they have gone from very good to another crap-shoot.

Defense is good with the people they had last year; if the Front Office is going to be as cheap as some here imply, Joey Gallo could be back for fielding skills (put in late innings when defense really counts).

All the -- Twins should -- talk is -- If I were in charge -- so opinions differ and are neither here -nor-there.

I would rather they pick-up, some how, a very good veteran for Center Field (Taylor is fine) and do the pitching crap-shoot, but that may not work for squat either.

[Karbo]

My biggest concern at this point is SP depth. We know Paddack will have an innings limit, Ober has had health issues, Varland is still green, and it seems the league is starting to catch up to Ryan. The other hole is 1st base, due to AK's inability to stay healthy. CF is passable even if Buxton is a no go (as at some point he will be) with Castro and Gordon, and IMO, Martin. A trade is probably the way they need to go for a starter, and a low end FA should be able to cover 1st. I would seriously think about moving Polo or Julian to 1st, though Polo is probably the top trade chip.

[tony&rodney]

Young guys like Julien, Wallner, and Lewis are risky, but they have each shown enough to deserve playing time. Prospects such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are looking close to ready and should make a positive contribution this coming season. If the Twins can hold their depth, I can see an improved offense. Losing Solano is tough but there are enough guys to fill for him. a major key, that many worry about, is how do Kirilloff and Miranda bounce back from shoulder hurts.

I agree that the depth will look differently but I also expect it to be pretty good. A couple of guys i like as players to fill positions around the field on occasion are Anthony Pratto and Michael Helman. These players are a little older, very good in the field and on the bases and provide some pop. They do need to be added back into the minor leagues before another organization pilfers them. 

I see a higher upside for the depth but a lower floor is also a risk.

[stringer bell]

Yes, there will be a lack of proven depth in the coming year IMHO. However the skillset of the projected backups fits well with the established players. If the Twins are going to reduce payroll, this is the least objectionable path. 

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

What depth?

With the exception of Lewis, none of the rookies has been good enough to not have to worry about ending up with some other team.

I do not venture into the pitching morass but they have gone from very good to another crap-shoot.

Defense is good with the people they had last year; if the Front Office is going to be as cheap as some here imply, Joey Gallo could be back for fielding skills (put in late innings when defense really counts).

All the -- Twins should -- talk is -- If I were in charge -- so opinions differ and are neither here -nor-there.

I would rather they pick-up, some how, a very good veteran for Center Field (Taylor is fine) and do the pitching crap-shoot, but that may not work for squat either.

We got plenty of vets getting paid well that don’t produce any better than our rookies last year. At least we aren’t holding our youngsters back on a slow walk. Lee for example has been promoted as soon as he has been ready and will likely get another promotion in early ‘24, just as soon as he is ready.  I would much rather go down that bumpy road than wasting money on gallo and archer. I’d also hand CF over to Martin as soon as he is ready rather than paying 3-8 M on an average vet. I don’t want to be average. I want to watch young stars of the future take a few lumps and bumps and develop into above average vets. It quite obvious kiermiars and hopkins arent going to sign with us. 
I want to see Lee, Martin, Severino, Headrick, Varland, SWR, Festa, Canterino,  and another rookie or two contribute sometime in ‘24. We already have a really good 26 man roster with a few questions to be answered. I’m not one bit worried that the 26 best will be available open day and we will be central div champs in ‘24.  Its what we do between now and the trade deadline that will determine how October goes. 
 A few roles to fill and a long time to get it done. In the mean time we all get to spout off on our opinions. Thats what this place is for. 

[roger]

Was pleasantly surprised last winter/spring when the Twins brought in the four vets and Castro.  The important fact looking forward is that the two most productive of the five, Farmer and Castro, will be back in 2024.  That is unless the Twins move Farmer in a trade.

With the young players who broke in last year and others on the horizon, there shouldn't be a need to go outside the organization for depth.  

The one comment you made that didn't sit well with me was the comment about Martin that he had, "a wildly successful season."  Martin had a nice year at AAA, but I wouldn't call it wildly successful.

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

 I would much rather go down that bumpy road than wasting money on gallo and archer. I’d also hand CF over to Martin as soon as he is ready rather than paying 3-8 M on an average vet. I don’t want to be average. I want to watch young stars of the future take a few lumps and bumps and develop into above average vets. It quite obvious kiermiars and hopkins arent going to sign with us. 
I want to see Lee, Martin, Severino, Headrick, Varland, SWR, Festa, Canterino,  and another rookie or two contribute sometime in ‘24.
 A few roles to fill and a long time to get it done. In the mean time we all get to spout off on our opinions. Thats what this place is for. 

I want a team equal or better than this year in 2024.

I do not want a bumpy road where we find rookies you mention turn out to be replays of Celestino, Sano, Larnach, Cave, Rooker etc..

None of the gents you mentioned have faced Major League pitching which is a world apart from AAA (Unless they go against a Big Leaguer in rehab).

Cave and Sano spent their first year in the Bigs looking like the latest best bet, yet from there is was mostly down hill.

We waited 30 years, most do not want to go back to using the Twins as a AAA team again.

[terrydactyls]

Any bankruptcy experts in the crowd?  Diamond Sports Group is the entity that is having financial difficulties and possibly declaring bankruptcy (or may have declared already).  Is that correct?  If they are in bankruptcy, why were they able to acquire the Worcester WooSox (Triple A) and the Portland Sea Dogs (Double A) minor league baseball teams?

This is a serious question.  I don't understand.

[Fatbat]

38 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Any bankruptcy experts in the crowd?  Diamond Sports Group is the entity that is having financial difficulties and possibly declaring bankruptcy (or may have declared already).  Is that correct?  If they are in bankruptcy, why were they able to acquire the Worcester WooSox (Triple A) and the Portland Sea Dogs (Double A) minor league baseball teams?

This is a serious question.  I don't understand.

The same way Northwest Airlines merged with Delta Airlines. A bankrupt Co can buy or get bought if it pleases the court and a financially healthy co is the end result after the books are gone thru and certain assets are sold/retained and so forth. 

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Any bankruptcy experts in the crowd?  Diamond Sports Group is the entity that is having financial difficulties and possibly declaring bankruptcy (or may have declared already).  Is that correct?  If they are in bankruptcy, why were they able to acquire the Worcester WooSox (Triple A) and the Portland Sea Dogs (Double A) minor league baseball teams?

This is a serious question.  I don't understand.

They are in Chapter 11 which is reorganization vs Chapter 7 which is liquidation.  I am not an attorney but my understanding is they would have to get permission from the bankruptcy court but perhaps an attorney will chime in.

BTW .... Has the sale been completed or just announced?  This could be pending bankruptcy court permission.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They are in Chapter 11 which is reorganization vs Chapter 7 which is liquidation.  I am not an attorney but my understanding is they would have to get permission from the bankruptcy court but perhaps an attorney will chime in.

BTW .... Has the sale been completed or just announced?  This could be pending bankruptcy court permission.

Completed.  It was in the Portland Press Herald a couple days ago.

[old nurse]

Every year brings a new bench, new opportunities. Sometimes the players brought in have a career year like Castro, some show it is time to move on like Gallo

I am not sure what is historical about 2 minor league players coming up and hitting well. That is what the farm system is supposed to provide for the team to be successful. 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Completed.  It was in the Portland Press Herald a couple days ago.

Without spending a lot of time looking into this situation, it would appear there are two different companies. Diamond Baseball Holdings who purchased the Worcester WooSox and Diamond Sports Holdings.  Apparently, they are entirely separate organizations which means they would not need permission from the bankruptcy court to purchase this team.  Again, I am not an attorney, and we have limited information, but it would appear the sale went through because they are legally two different entities.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Without spending a lot of time looking into this situation, it would appear there are two different companies. Diamond Baseball Holdings who purchased the Worcester WooSox and Diamond Sports Holdings.  Apparently, they are entirely separate organizations which means they would not need permission from the bankruptcy court to purchase this team.  Again, I am not an attorney, and we have limited information, but it would appear the sale went through because they are legally two different entities.

I guess the question I really have is:  If Diamond Sports is owned by Sinclair Communications and is solvent enough to buy sports franchises, why is the TV contract an issue?  Something just smells funny to me.  The ”bancruptcy" seems like a sneaky (but legal) way to get out of a bad deal.

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I guess the question I really have is:  If Diamond Sports is owned by Sinclair Communications and is solvent enough to buy sports franchises, why is the TV contract an issue?  Something just smells funny to me.  The ”bancruptcy" seems like a sneaky (but legal) way to get out of a bad deal.

IDK, if you owned two businesses you would not be obligated to fund a failed business with the funds from a successful business just as you would not be obligated to fund it with personal funds unless you had a personal guarantee with a lender.  There are numerous entities that own multiple separate businesses, and they are treated separately in the eyes of the IRS and the law,

[terrydactyls]

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

IDK, if you owned two businesses you would not be obligated to fund a failed business with the funds from a successful business just as you would not be obligated to fund it with personal funds unless you had a personal guarantee with a lender.  There are numerous entities that own multiple separate businesses, and they are treated separately in the eyes of the IRS and the law,

Thanks to everyone that replied.  It helps clarify the situation.  (I still think it's a sleazy, but legal, way to get out of a bad situation.)

[nicksaviking]

Last year the “depth” was comforting, but I think it ultimately cost them games.  Gallo, Farmer and Vázquez kept Wallner, Julien and Jeffers off of the field early in the year. Had the young guys gotten 10, 20 or 30 more starts, how many more games would have this team won?

[Fatbat]

17 hours ago, RpR said:

I want a team equal or better than this year in 2024.

I do not want a bumpy road where we find rookies you mention turn out to be replays of Celestino, Sano, Larnach, Cave, Rooker etc..

None of the gents you mentioned have faced Major League pitching which is a world apart from AAA (Unless they go against a Big Leaguer in rehab).

Cave and Sano spent their first year in the Bigs looking like the latest best bet, yet from there is was mostly down hill.

We waited 30 years, most do not want to go back to using the Twins as a AAA team again.

This is why I dislike comparing minor leaguers. Every player is different and develops at different times. Has their own ups and downs. You can’t progress as a team without bringing up rookies every year.  When they are ready, they absolutely have to be brought up and see what shakes out. The ‘24 roster doesn’t need to rely on rookies but we do need to move forward at some point instead of bringing in reclamation projects to block the rookies that are ready.  Neither one of us knows when each one will be ready, thats above our paygrade but we definitely get to opine here on what we as fans want to see. For instance, I’d be ok with MAT or Kiermair signing for ‘24 but if it blocks Martin or Kiersey when they are ready, it would be a waste of time, talent and money. Playing Gallo into August was an example of just that. 
Moving forward, many have thrown Miranda overboard just because he was hurt and didn’t contribute anything last year. What if he comes back and is a solid contributor in ‘24? I’m sure the FO has some sort of idea about his health and it’s possible that is why they haven’t pulled the trigger on getting a RH bat vet signed. Come February/March, we will have a much better idea where our 40 man shakes out.  

[saviking]

Right on, Ted. Hopefully, we can trade Kepler or Polanco and maybe one of our mid-threat prospects to solve the fifth rotation starters Verlander will be an asset as either a starter if we don't or top-notch reliever. 

Personally, I'm happy we are forced to turn to our younger players due to our lack of money.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

This is why I dislike comparing minor leaguers. Every player is different and develops at different times. Has their own ups and downs. You can’t progress as a team without bringing up rookies every year.  When they are ready, they absolutely have to be brought up and see what shakes out. The ‘24 roster doesn’t need to rely on rookies but we do need to move forward at some point instead of bringing in reclamation projects to block the rookies that are ready.  Neither one of us knows when each one will be ready, thats above our paygrade but we definitely get to opine here on what we as fans want to see. For instance, I’d be ok with MAT or Kiermair signing for ‘24 but if it blocks Martin or Kiersey when they are ready, it would be a waste of time, talent and money. Playing Gallo into August was an example of just that. 
Moving forward, many have thrown Miranda overboard just because he was hurt and didn’t contribute anything last year. What if he comes back and is a solid contributor in ‘24? I’m sure the FO has some sort of idea about his health and it’s possible that is why they haven’t pulled the trigger on getting a RH bat vet signed. Come February/March, we will have a much better idea where our 40 man shakes out.  

I have no idea where Miranda's future will take him, but should he regain his form, his 18% K rate would be a bigger asset to this team than any free agent they could sign. That was the team's most troubling aspect, and a guy who puts the ball in play and puts up an .800 OPS would be huge. At DH, 1B or 3B, that would be a gigantic boost.

[DocBauer]

Here's the thing, depth is perception, as well as talent. While I, and others, really liked adding Castro as a still young player with a lot of talent, did anyone really believe that maturity, and a scenery and coaching change would make THAT much of a difference?

That's why I've been harping so much about Helman, and even Prato, and possibly Keirsey as well. Sometimes it's right time, right place, whether it's an internal or external option. Helman is a late bloomer to be sure, for various reasons, but what's wrong with that? I'm not expecting him to be a stud, just a good, versatile ballplayer who can play everywhere and provide a solid bat, some power, and some speed. He's a RH, couple years older version of Castro. And he might wash out! But he's been on a 3yr climb of really good production who would almost certainly seen ML time in 2023 if he didn't keep running in to the injury wall. Prato is a bit younger, but similar player, who was a college SS who has played all over the field, and offers some hit, OB ability, pop, and decent base running. Keirsey was a pretty early draft pick based on elite defense, speed, some HIT ability, and potential pop. 

I am hopeful that all 3 escape the rule 5 draft, or are returned if selected. Why is it that some see Castro's milb signing is a success story, but want to easily dismiss the potential contributions of "older" players already within the system that aren't top prospects?

There will be a trade or two coming forward, we just know this, right? So some guys are going to be gone, from the ML roster, and milb depth. But as of TODAY, the Saints are looking at Williams and Isola as DH/1B and #3 catchers who have some offense. And then there is Camargo at catcher. Lee is so close to being ready, and still part of the organization despite speculation. Severio is a solid prospect, and figures in to 3 INF spots, for now. Martin should be a full time OF, IMO, but it would be great if he could still cover 2B/3B, but I still look at him as an OF exclusively going forward. Larnach is still here, even with question marks. And THEN, we have the Helman, Prato, Keirsey trio that might end up as solid role players. 

As of NOW, there is an interesting collection of TOP talent, solid talent, and a couple of "just might" talent available. 

IMO, at least one of Polanco, Julien, or Lee might be moved. I believe one of Wallner, Kepler, or Larnach might be moved. (I think Lee and Wallner are remote possibilities, might include Julien in there, but we'll see). There's enough talent available for the Twins roster to not be decimated if a couple guys are moved. And let's not forget that the patient approach of the FO has paid off before with some late additions. Just last year, they came up with Solano after ST had already started, and he performed AT LEAST as expected, if not way more than expected.

Athletically speaking, potential speaking, there is a good deal of depth right now. Imagine how different things look with a healthy Miranda returning to his 2022 form? It changes the entire roster dynamic to have him at 1B/3B/DH/PH.

Remember just a couple seasons ago when the Twins were scraping the bottom of the barrel to find ANYONE who could patrol CF? Well, we're way beyond that now.

The BITE in the roster construction is AK and Miranda being healthy and ready to go as young, talented players. Beyond that is Buxton actually feeling OK again and being able to run and play...IDK, maybe 100 games in CF...and lessening the need for another CF option. But at least as of today, we have Castro, Martin, and maybe Helman and Keirsey to be legitimate CF options. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a FA, maybe 2, added late for depth. But, IMO, just like 2023 when we saw the potential of some really good looking youngsters that seemed ready, I don't believe we are void of some guys who might step forward in 2024 to provide value for depth.

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a FA, maybe 2, added late for depth. But, IMO, just like 2023 when we saw the potential of some really good looking youngsters that seemed ready, I don't believe we are void of some guys who might step forward in 2024 to provide value for depth.

As you said, I would certainly expect a couple of free agent signings like last year, when we acquired Farmer, Solano. Taylor and Castro (I realize some of these were by trade), and I also agree that we have a bunch of young players that are ready to step up and show their stuff. But just like last year, when injuries (Gordon and Miranda, and even Lewis) were a factor, I think we need the added depth of some veterans on the team too. I can't imagine how the team would have fared without Farmer, Solano, Taylor, and Castro. No All Stars in the bunch, but they proved to be very versatile and useful. I'd love to see the likes of Martin, Kiersey, and/or Prato come up and impress us, but I'm not counting on them all to produce at the same time.