Nola signs with Philly

[tony&rodney]

Via mkbtraderumors.com

Aaron Nola is off the board at $172 million. Several folks had wanted Nola.

Does anyone believe the Twins would be in on a pitcher for $172 million?

View full rumor

[tony&rodney]

Link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/phillies-reportedly-sign-aaron-nola-to-seven-year-deal.html

 

[Vanimal46]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone believe the Twins would be in on a pitcher for $172 million?

Not a chance. It’s why I’m not looking at any free agent SP and prefer the trade market. 

[Jocko87]

Interesting timing for a resigning, this quick makes me wonder why they didn't just extend prior to free agency?  Rose colored glasses would say he quickly saw that the Phillies were much higher than everyone else? Seems like a pretty reasonable deal. 

[LewFordLives]

The silly season has begun.

He's been good, but not great. That's a lot of guaranteed money. 

[Doctor Gast]

Maybe things will happen more quickly this year?

[Mike Sixel]

No surprise, neither team nor money

[Squirrel]

Is this a rumor or done deal?

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Is this a rumor or done deal?

Multiple journalists with reputations to uphold are reporting it in details beyond just rumor.  Physical passed, presser tomorrow.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/phillies-reportedly-sign-aaron-nola-to-seven-year-deal.html

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

He's been good, but not great. That's a lot of guaranteed money. 

Aaron Nola is #1 in WAR among pitchers 30 and under (32.0) and 13th overall among active pitchers. He's 10 WAR ahead of the second-best pitcher 30 and under (Luis Castillo 22.3). If he's not "great" then great pitchers no longer exist in major league baseball.

[tony&rodney]

Big money. Various sites had Nola around the $25 million per year average, but for 5 years. The highest prediction for total money that I have seen was $150 million. The $172 million is a big chunk of money above the expected, yet it continues the recent practice of spreading total money over years for a lower average per year. 

Aaron Nola is a very good pitcher but he didn't exactly tear up the league last summer with a 4.46 ERA. The other numbers are off a little bit too.

Let us not quibble, Nola is a premier starting pitcher. The signing indicates that the Phillies wanted to keep their two guys at the top and that the price for top 25-40 starting pitchers is going continue to rise. 

FWIW, Sonny Gray is looking really hot right now. 

[lecroy24fan]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Interesting timing for a resigning, this quick makes me wonder why they didn't just extend prior to free agency?  Rose colored glasses would say he quickly saw that the Phillies were much higher than everyone else? Seems like a pretty reasonable deal. 

They got it done because the Braves were going after him hard.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

The silly season has begun.

He's been good, but not great. That's a lot of guaranteed money. 

Yes it's that time of year  again for the wheel of fortune ...

Most teams are looking for the right players to Let's make a deal ,  some front offices press there luck  ...

Some front offices would like to deal but end up with no deal because the price wasn't right ...

Free agency is all about beating the clock  and it puts  teams in jeopardy  of spending over the value of players  ... 

Is it a match game , yes I think it is , offer the most money  and it just turned into a match for the players to sign ....

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/phillies-reportedly-sign-aaron-nola-to-seven-year-deal.html

 

 

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Interesting timing for a resigning, this quick makes me wonder why they didn't just extend prior to free agency?  Rose colored glasses would say he quickly saw that the Phillies were much higher than everyone else? Seems like a pretty reasonable deal. 

Reasonable and way out of reach for the TC FO.

[Dman]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Big money. Various sites had Nola around the $25 million per year average, but for 5 years. The highest prediction for total money that I have seen was $150 million. The $172 million is a big chunk of money above the expected, yet it continues the recent practice of spreading total money over years for a lower average per year. 

Aaron Nola is a very good pitcher but he didn't exactly tear up the league last summer with a 4.46 ERA. The other numbers are off a little bit too.

Let us not quibble, Nola is a premier starting pitcher. The signing indicates that the Phillies wanted to keep their two guys at the top and that the price for top 25-40 starting pitchers is going continue to rise. 

FWIW, Sonny Gray is looking really hot right now. 

Yeah Gray should just sit back and wait because he looks like the pitcher to get least amount of years but I bet the AAV keeps rising as the bidding goes up.

[CRF]

The Braves wanted Nola, but they could be pivoting to Gray real fast now. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

The Braves wanted Nola, but they could be pivoting to Gray real fast now. 

I believe in order for the Twins to get full draft-pick value from their QO, Gray needs to sign for at least $50M total contract value, which always seemed pretty likely but now I'm thinking he'll come closer to the $100M mark than 50.

/ edit - after reading the mlbtr link provided afterward, it looks like my forecast is way light in this marketplace. He could nudge past $100M total value.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

The Braves wanted Nola, but they could be pivoting to Gray real fast now. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/braves-interested-in-sonny-gray.html

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Aaron Nola is #1 in WAR among pitchers 30 and under (32.0) and 13th overall among active pitchers. He's 10 WAR ahead of the second-best pitcher 30 and under (Luis Castillo 22.3). If he's not "great" then great pitchers no longer exist in major league baseball.

I think LewFordlives meant to say that while Nola has been a very good pitcher, 7 years is a long deal for a guy who has started showing some warts.

I personally think he is excellent, and can see him being effective over the course of the deal considering he relies more on impeccable control and a 5 pitch arsenal than a power arm that may fade through his 30s.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

7 years is a long deal for a guy who has started showing some warts.

Seven years spreads out the money so it keeps them below the luxury tax line. At $9M/WAR they're buying 19 WAR over 7 seasons. Over the previous 7 seasons he put up 30 WAR.

[Fatbat]

Thats a lot of money and time. I still think gray and others will be closer to 21M/yr average.  Id still offer montgomery 4 years with options for yr 5&6. Limit the risk a little bit. 

[dxpavelka]

Maybe on an 11 year contract.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Aaron Nola is #1 in WAR among pitchers 30 and under (32.0) and 13th overall among active pitchers. He's 10 WAR ahead of the second-best pitcher 30 and under (Luis Castillo 22.3). If he's not "great" then great pitchers no longer exist in major league baseball.

Nola is not a great pitcher. He was amazing in 18 and he was really good in 17 and 22.  Otherwise he has been a pretty good and consistent. There is little to no chance I would give the guy 172 million, he was 74th in pitcher WAR last year.

(also I think WAR for starting pitchers is kind of a joke, because somehow Nola's 18 season (212 innings ) is better than all but one of Maddux's seasons, better than any Johan season and better than all but two Randy Johnson's and Clemens seasons., )

But you are correct there really are no truly great starting pitchers anymore. (at least they aren't allowed to be great)

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

But you are correct there really are no truly great starting pitchers anymore. (at least they aren't allowed to be great)

I think it's far more likely that pitcher replacement level is higher than it has ever been in MLB history. Pitch velocity and spin are at all time maximums and every year sets a new record number of strikeouts. Every bullpen has multiple guys throwing in the upper 90s. Remember when pitchers like Livan Hernandez could carve out a career pitching to contact and throwing 89 MPH fastballs? That career no longer exists.

Nola has a career K/9 of 10.0 and a K/BB of 4.26. That's elite in any era.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think it's far more likely that pitcher replacement level is higher than it has ever been in MLB history. Pitch velocity and spin are at all time maximums and every year sets a new record number of strikeouts. Every bullpen has multiple guys throwing in the upper 90s. Remember when pitchers like Livan Hernandez could carve out a career pitching to contact and throwing 89 MPH fastballs? That career no longer exists.

Nola has a career K/9 of 10.0 and a K/BB of 4.26. That's elite in any era.

if guys now have higher WAR than in the past, wouldn't that mean replacement level is lower now? Nolan Ryan's in 1977 pitched 326 innings, ERA 2.87 and won 21 games and his WAR was 7.7. Nola had a WAR of 9.7 and pitched 212 innings.

In more recent times Verlanders 2011 season, every metric was better than Nola's (except ERA 2.40 to 2.37 and ERA+ 172 to173)

and Verlander (8.6) pitched pitched 39 more innings (in the same amount of starts) and yet his WAR was lower than Nola (9.7)

 

I like Nola and think he is pretty good, but if he is elite, so is Pablo and a bunch of other good pitchers.

 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

if guys now have higher WAR than in the past, wouldn't that mean replacement level is lower now? Nolan Ryan's in 1977 pitched 326 innings, ERA 2.87 and won 21 games and his WAR was 7.7. Nola had a WAR of 9.7 and pitched 212 innings.

I like Nola and think he is pretty good, but if he is elite, so is Pablo and a bunch of other good pitchers.

No, it means pitchers are getting more of the credit for run prevention and defense is getting less credit. MLB defenses have less to do now than ever before because balls in play are down so much. BTW - Nolan Ryan walked 6 batters per 9 innings in 1977.

Speaking of defense, the defensive adjustment for Nola is pretty high. If you check his WAR on Fangraphs he's much more consistently good because they use xFIP and he gets 10% more WAR in his career. The Phillies have been a bad defensive team for several years.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, it means pitchers are getting more of the credit for run prevention and defense is getting less credit. MLB defenses have less to do now than ever before because balls in play are down so much. BTW - Nolan Ryan walked 6 batters per 9 innings in 1977.

Speaking of defense, the defensive adjustment for Nola is pretty high. If you check his WAR on Fangraphs he's much more consistently good because they use xFIP and he gets 10% more WAR in his career. The Phillies have been a bad defensive team for several years.

no it means they are getting more credit for doing less. I am not complaining about the way pitchers are used, I am just stating the idea of comparing pitchers based on WAR isn't valid anymore. Unless you are comparing them to other pitchers in the same year.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

no it means they are getting more credit for doing less. I am not complaining about the way pitchers are used, I am just stating the idea of comparing pitchers based on WAR isn't valid anymore. Unless you are comparing them to other pitchers in the same year.

Individual pitchers are pitching fewer innings, and it's showing up in less total WAR, but pitchers are accumulating more value on a per inning basis.

[Vanimal46]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:35 PM, ashbury said:

I believe in order for the Twins to get full draft-pick value from their QO, Gray needs to sign for at least $50M total contract value, which always seemed pretty likely but now I'm thinking he'll come closer to the $100M mark than 50.

/ edit - after reading the mlbtr link provided afterward, it looks like my forecast is way light in this marketplace. He could nudge past $100M total value.

 

This is nothing but a hunch on my part, but I think Gray is going to get a 6 year contract for north of $120 million. That just seems to be the way it's going in free agency. Lower AAV and 2-3 more years than usual to smooth out the payments. 

[lake_guy]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

This is nothing but a hunch on my part, but I think Gray is going to get a 6 year contract for north of $120 million. That just seems to be the way it's going in free agency. Lower AAV and 2-3 more years than usual to smooth out the payments. 

And a massive benefit to high payroll teams because they can DFA or trade the player at the back end, eat the money and say I'll have another please.  Lovely....