The Twins Payroll Meltdown: Six Crummy Ways It Affects Their Future

[Dman]

38 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I feel like this as well. However, I also stop and remember that this may just be a typical thought when one is a fan of a team. People tend to see stars emerging within the prospects .... on every team.

 

I agree with this and am prone to thinking\hoping prospects will make a difference, but there are so few difference making prospects that become All Stars one has to be careful of the rose colored glasses.  Solid players count, but as @chpettit19 has mentioned it takes a core of special players to get the job done when going for a world series title.  

My rose colored glasses approach for 2025 has Lee, Rodriguez and Rosario added to the young core of Lewis, Jullien and Wallner.  Lee and Rodriguez are top 100 prospects so definitely a solid chance to be star players  I have Festa, Ohl and Raya as MLB ready arms with possibly Lewis, Morris and Culpepper as options as well.  With a younger deeper core it seems like they could make trades or buy what they need to get over the hump for a series run

To your counter point.  I thought Balazovich, Winder, Henriquez and Duran were all going to be starting pitcher's after their AA and AAA results.  They all are in the bull pen now and if they don't perform soon might not even be on the team in the future..  Projecting young talent especially starting pitching generally works out less often than you would like (i.e. SWR, Enlow).  The list is much longer for failure than success. So I get your concerns.

While the pundits say the Twins farm is weak they tend to under rate our players especially the lower draft picks.  Spencer Steer wasn't even a top 100 prospect and he was in the running for rookie of the year.  CES didn't really get a chance to get on the top 100 before being traded but another good bat the Twins found later in the draft. Ohl isn't even in the Twins top 30 and his numbers were close to Lewis as he came in number 2. I think the Twins will come up with more of those types of players in the future.  Guys with that level of potential in the wings would be Severino, Martin, Schobel, Ross, Cardenas.

I get it when you are always looking to the future you never make a move for the present.  Still, I just don't see a path for this team to be much better than last years team until more young players establish themselves especially if they are dropping the limit from 150M to a likely 130M.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree with this and am prone to thinking\hoping prospects will make a difference, but there are so few difference making prospects that become All Stars one has to be careful of the rose colored glasses.  Solid players count, but as @chpettit19 has mentioned it takes a core of special players to get the job done when going for a world series title.  

My rose colored glasses approach for 2025 has Lee, Rodriguez and Rosario added to the young core of Lewis, Jullien and Wallner.  Lee and Rodriguez are top 100 prospects so definitely a solid chance to be star players  I have Festa, Ohl and Raya as MLB ready arms with possibly Lewis, Morris and Culpepper as options as well.  With a younger deeper core it seems like they could make trades or buy what they need to get over the hump for a series run

To your counter point.  I thought Balazovich, Winder, Henriquez and Duran were all going to be starting pitcher's after their AA and AAA results.  They all are in the bull pen now and if they don't perform soon might not even be on the team in the future..  Projecting young talent especially starting pitching generally works out less often than you would like (i.e. SWR, Enlow).  The list is much longer for failure than success. So I get your concerns.

While the pundits say the Twins farm is weak they tend to under rate our players especially the lower draft picks.  Spencer Steer wasn't even a top 100 prospect and he was in the running for rookie of the year.  CES didn't really get a chance to get on the top 100 before being traded but another good bat the Twins found later in the draft. Ohl isn't even in the Twins top 30 and his numbers were close to Lewis as he came in number 2. I think the Twins will come up with more of those types of players in the future.  Guys with that level of potential in the wings would be Severino, Martin, Schobel, Ross, Cardenas.

I get it when you are always looking to the future you never make a move for the present.  Still, I just don't see a path for this team to be much better than last years team until more young players establish themselves especially if they are dropping the limit from 150M to a likely 130M.

My general approach to prospects is to assume none of them are going to be stars until they start acting like stars in the majors. At that point it's gravy and you start building around them as they push out vets. I have high hopes that the current wave can provide a real floor, with a little ceiling boost even, but I just don't like the idea of counting on it before you need to. I think we see things pretty similar. And @Major League Ready and I do, too, actually (even though sometimes we bicker quite a bit). You need prospects. Absolutely need them. But I don't like forcing yourself to count on them over vets before you need to.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

My general approach to prospects is to assume none of them are going to be stars until they start acting like stars in the majors. At that point it's gravy and you start building around them as they push out vets. I have high hopes that the current wave can provide a real floor, with a little ceiling boost even, but I just don't like the idea of counting on it before you need to. I think we see things pretty similar. And @Major League Ready and I do, too, actually (even though sometimes we bicker quite a bit). You need prospects. Absolutely need them. But I don't like forcing yourself to count on them over vets before you need to.

Yeah that is a solid approach. You look at Larnach, Gordon, and some players that didn't even make it that far and realize you can't bank on those players making the jump.  It took Castro three years to have a good season and it was about replacement level. Every once in a while you get a guy like Jullien who produces from the start.  I think Lewis is in there as well but even with his heroic performance it is such a SSS it still makes me question.  

So yeah you cannot come into a season banking on prospects.  I don't think the FO will do that, but I think the 2024 team might end up weaker than the 2023 version.  Still a lot of offseason to go and they have made some amazing moves in past seasons. I probably shouldn't be so negative, but moving the payroll numbers lower doesn't give me good vibes.

[Jocko87]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't want mid level free agents because this team is already mid level. The goal isn't to trade those 3 and replace them with equal talent. The goal is to improve upon the team. Polanco and Kepler aren't good enough to be top of the order guys, but they're still better than the rest of the guys they have. Taking away from the top is not how you improve the team. You need to replace the Gallo and Solano guys with guys that slot in above Polanco and Kepler. 

I don't see Kepler as redundant. I don't see anyone in house who's likely to produce as much as him in RF. Assuming Wallner already has a corner spot, I don't see Larnach, Castro, Gordon, Martin, or Hellman being a likely bet to beat out Kepler's production in 2024. I don't love Kepler, and want him hitting 6-9 in the order, but replacing him with someone who should be hitting 8-bench in the order isn't an answer to me. And that's ignoring that they are also going to get worse in CF simply because of MAT's defense.

I don't believe in the prospects as much as others do, clearly. I think there's a bunch of major leaguers in there, but I think people are putting way too much faith in them. And I don't think replacing your 2 and 4 hole hitters and your #2 pitcher from your playoff roster while reducing payroll is likely to improve upon the team. They could maintain it, but I'm not interested in maintaining (I mean I'll take maintaining over getting worse). The goal shouldn't be to maintain, it should be to improve. I don't see how trading out Gray, Polanco, and Kepler's 2023 production for a bunch of unproven guys who aren't star type prospects in the first place and guys who's best bet is to duplicate those 3's production gets the Twins closer to the World Series.

Agree the moves made need to be to bring in legit studs.  I'm OK with bringing a pitcher that only almost fills Grays spot if he's young, controllable and projectable but I wouldn't be spending 10-15m on a reclamation project.  Also agreed that Kepler and Polo set a very nice floor.  If they are getting beat out at a spot that will be a good thing all around.  They are also going to provide more value at cost than anything we could sign or trade them for at this point.  If we think we want to bring in studs, they won't get it done without major sweetening.  Then we lose their production, the prospects and risk back filling at a lower level.  The more I think about it the right move is to wait until someone forces them off their spots.

I'm also more intrigued with the idea of calling Kepler the primary center fielder against righties.  Hear me out, hes not Kiermaier out there but should be solid.  I know he supposedly doesn't want to but he took coaching mid-season and adjusted.  The team and his agent should present that if he goes to free agency as a solid center fielder that hits 30 HR the Twins won't be able to afford him.  He will make a ton of money and free up a lot of roster concerns.  Let the hand cannon play right and free up left field for more rotation types.  Get what you can out of Buxton and if he's miraculously healed its a good problem.

It also saves $10m spend in center field.  We are halfway to the cut already.

As for the pitching, you and I agree on the target but we disagree on which bank account to use to pay for it.  I'm with you that not all of these prospects are going to pay out but they are a store of value from which they can tap.  I'm OK with selling anyone but Walker, Lee, ERod and um, thats about it.  Those three could go to if the target was a greek god of pitching.  My guy I'm shopping is Julien and by himself he can get a pretty decent pitcher.  Add some prospects and go for it.

Anyone can spend money but truly well run businesses see and move value around.

 

18 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You are absolutely right.  It does not all have to come from player payroll and it's a pretty good bet they will cut in other areas.  Let's see what happens before we assume the worst.  

It takes a lot of cutting in the offices to get to one player value cut.  Plus the incremental value of losing analytics or scouting downstream value potentially costs much more than saved.  The optics are worse but I'd rather not have Gallo than $11m cuts in player development, medical etc. 

 

14 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

Now is the time to use the resources they do have to improve the team. If the payroll won’t support spending money, use their prospect capital to fill holes via trades. They’ve invested in development and now they reap the rewards. This is where the FO earns their keep. They made good trades getting Lopez and Gray here, so no reason to think they can’t get good returns on prospects. Every prospect except for Festa should be available for the right return. I prefer they keep veterans like Polanco and Kepler, but if the return is there, they have to consider it. Vazquez should be on the trade block. Camargo is ready to step up to MLB. 
FO should know the value of their own prospects and which ones to keep and which to sell. I agree that if the team has aspirations for a deep playoff run, it can’t rely on rookies and sophomores to carry the load. It will have to be a mix of young controllable players and veterans. 
There aren’t that many holes to fill, so a couple of trades and a FA relief arm signing should do the trick. Or, swing for the home run with a big name trade to impact the roster. 

 

 

Agree with everything here except the Festa part as the lone untouchable.  Do you know something we don't?  Question for another discussion, welcome aboard.

It does illustrate that we know nothing about how anyone values our prospects and what we can actually get.  If the Mariners are in love with Yassar Mercedes, great, I'm not.  Go for it.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

And that's my point of consternation. We paid way to much for damaged goods that other teams were passing on. The fact we would have to throw in money to get him off our hands confirms he'd not worth what we are paying him and that has been my point all along. Especially when we had two very promising young short stops very close to the Bigs. It made no sense to me at the time and makes no sense to me now. Especially when we are cash strapped. 

It's too risky for mid market teams to try and play with the big boys by signing a top tier contract. You are betting the farm. We were very lucky to escape the Donaldson trade. And in essence what you are telling me us stop complaining about Correa because noone else wants him and we are married to him through thick and then. 

Sorry, that doesn't make me feel any better.

I'm not telling you to stop complaining about Correa... I only chimed in response to your suggestion that they could get a "couple of top 50 prospects" in a trade of Correa.

Whatever your point is... thinking two top 50 prospects come back in return is going to poison your overall point. The Twins signed Correa to that contract because they like Correa... they wanted Correa in a Twins uniform to help us win games right now and the contract was how much it cost to acquire him.   

To your overall point of consternation as you explain above.

Part of what you say is a legitimate argument although you will find plenty of TD posters who are ready to argue with you. Should teams in our financial range jump in with the big clubs with big budgets and compete for high dollar free agents. That's a good question and the argument is legitimate. Big dollar free agents are indeed risky and clubs in the Twins financial range get hurt bad if they miss, it severely limits what they can spend on a supporting cast of players around him so I can see how you feel that way. 

However... when you say "that other teams were passing on him" and using that as an argument against Correa. You are wrong... other teams were not passing on Correa... they were passing on the price to acquire Correa. If you want the player... you have to pay what it takes to acquire the player. The other 29 teams set the price. The Twins didn't pay 200 million to get Correa when the next closest offer was 50 Million. This is the nature of free agency. 

When you say "The fact we would have to throw in money to get him off our hands confirms he'd not worth what we are paying him and that has been my point all along".

It confirms no such thing. That comment shows a lack of understanding of how free agency works. If you want to buy a 57 Chevy and so do two other people. Bob stops at 80,000, Natalie decided she will spend 99,000 and you offer 100,000 and you get the Chevy. You can't call Bob and Natalie after driving around the car for a year and then offer to sell them that Chevy for 100,000 as long as they throw in a couple of top 50 prospects. If they wanted to spend 100,000 for the 57 Chevy they would have spent it when the 57 Chevy was available before you bought it. 

Your overall point is legitimate... you are right that the Twins were lucky to get out of the Donaldson contract. Should the Twins be in these waters at all is worthy of debate.

It's these little sub points that are way way off base. 

 

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It takes a lot of cutting in the offices to get to one player value cut.  Plus the incremental value of losing analytics or scouting downstream value potentially costs much more than saved.  The optics are worse but I'd rather not have Gallo than $11m cuts in player development, medical etc. 

Darn good point.  I thought the same thing but just let it go.  What I was thinking when I responded was that some of the multi-million dollar facilities upgrades (if planned) could be postponed.

[Fatbat]

@chpettit19 I was bring a bit sarcastic. $$$ does indeed buy championships but the Twins may be better off bot spending all of it cause they make some very bad spending decisions. As a fan, I would rather watch a team play that wins more than it loses no matter what the payroll is.  The optics of the ownership quote yesterday will probably do as much damage as the actual non spending does. 

[tony&rodney]

There has been a widespread usage of Julien as a DH going forward and placement of Brooks Lee at second base when he is ready. Most comments, with the exception of a few, have Lee arriving by June next year. Lee is a highly ranked prospect.

The guys behind the scenes (talent evaluators, scouts, coaches, and managers) are generally who makes the recommendations to the office suits on players to draft, move up, and ultimately to place in a position with the big squad. We do not know their thoughts.

I'm not thinking that Julien will be a primary DH. Furthermore (of course I could be way wrong), I do not see Julien playing many games as a first baseman. Julien is best suited for second base. Julien was never projected to be a star.

The unknown is whether Julien can make more significant improvement in the field and either hold his rookie lines or improve with the bat. It is always a nervous look when seeing how rookies react to MLB in their second and third seasons. I don't believe there are any guarantees. In 2021, MLB ranked Julio Rodriguez as the second best Mariner prospect.with Emerson Hancock ahead of both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. 

Brooks Lee has done well as a prospect. He flew through the system and finished in AAA in his first full season of professional baseball. He plays a good shortstop and most comments include his final position as a third baseman while thinking he could also handle second base. Lee projects as a solid regular who even might make an All Star team. 

It is wonderful to have too many good players but if there isn't anywhere for them to play on a daily basis, the full development of a player like Lee or Julien may never occur. When people suggest there are plenty of at bats to go around I wonder how much players like Lewis, Lee, and Julien would be affected by not knowing their status on the team. I don't see either Lewis, Lee or Julien as utility players.

I get that most people will believe that it is way too early to pick one or the other, but I'm thinking now is the time to best use the player resources to find an exchange for a starting pitcher with years of control remaining. I'm inclined to be wary of trading guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez or David Festa. Walker Jenkins is the only player I would not consider trading. 

Then again, perhaps the Twins become the first team in baseball to begin a season with only players who were in their system from the previous year.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Well the Twins didn't even win 90 games this year in maybe the worst division in MLB history, and you're talking about trading their 2 hole hitter so that they're better in 2 years. Good luck with the year after year of 90 win teams strategy that way. I mean so far it's gotten them one 90 win season in the last 13 years. 6 total since the start of the 21st century. Oakland has three 90 win seasons in the last 10 years. Cleveland has been quite good with five 90 win seasons over the last 10. Your precious Rays have four 90 win seasons in the last 10 years. Your strategy doesn't even work to get you the "year after year of 90 win teams" you want as the team you want to model the Twins after doesn't even win 90 games half the time.

They can execute my model. If they weren't slashing payroll right now they could afford another $30 million contract to go with Correa's for the next 5 years. They have Lopez for 21.5 a year after next year and they can afford that, too. It's absolutely false that they can't execute the strategy of paying high priced guys during the window that they have a wave of young talent coming. If the Pohlads really wanted to get crazy they could even jump their payroll up to 170 mil which would be in line with their MLB provided market score and then they could afford another $20 million deal without much problem. That's 4 deals over 20 million that they could easily afford for the next 5 years, but your strategy is instead to trade Polanco and his 10 mil so they can maybe get a prospect that's ready in 2 years when they'll have to trade Jeffers because now he's expensive and running out of contract. 

My strategy is that you marry your expensive guys with the cheap guys. When Buxton, Correa, Lopez, my dream 30 mil player, and 20 mil player come off the books in 5 years you replace their salaries with whichever internal guys have earned their paydays, or external guys if not enough of the internal guys have earned that money. Then you supplement them with the new guys you're developing on cheap deals. Rinse and repeat. If the Twins spent to the level MLB's own data suggests they should spend to they can absolutely afford multiple expensive contracts while developing well and not having to trade away their 2 hole hitter in hopes it improves their team 2 years down the road. My strategy gives them 5 more seasons to develop players to keep the cycle going. If they can't develop a handful of guys in the next 5 years without trading their veterans they're not going to succeed anyways.

Yeah, I'll take the bet that Correa out performs Stott in 2024.

This is just one part of the equation that the "be the Rays," crowd doesn't want to acknowledge. If it was that easy to replace established talent with cheap, young players and maintain or improve production, every team would do it. Every. Single. One. The line between TB and those Pittsburgh teams of the early 2000s into the 2010s is razor thin. Idk why anybody would prefer the Twins operate like TB when, as has been pointed out across this thread, the funds are are there, i.e. available, if MN wants to spend. 

You're fighting a losing battle. Not because you're wrong, it's just impossible to "win," an argument against an internet GM. I can't believe the credentials card hasn't been played yet. 

[chpettit19]

59 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@chpettit19 I was bring a bit sarcastic. $$$ does indeed buy championships but the Twins may be better off bot spending all of it cause they make some very bad spending decisions. As a fan, I would rather watch a team play that wins more than it loses no matter what the payroll is.  The optics of the ownership quote yesterday will probably do as much damage as the actual non spending does. 

I'd certainly rather the team win more than it loses, but at some point you play for championships, and, as much as we as fans of mid-market teams don't like to admit it, spending is what wins those. I don't even ask for out of their market style spending. Part of the MLB CBA is a Market Score ranking in which the Twins rank 17th. With their ranking they should be in the 160-175 mil range at this point in time depending on the year and where the league is at financially. I think it's incredibly possible to win a title with a 160-175 payroll if they take advantage of times like this when they have cheap talent at a lot of positions. Instead they're talking about taking a step back, possibly as far as the 125 mil range. That's really frustrating as a fan as it's a move to maintain mediocrity in a terrible central division instead of trying to compete for a title.

Totally agree that the quotes/reports yesterday are just as harmful, if not more so, than the non-spending itself. Mind blowing time to say things like that, in my opinion. No idea what the goal was by making any statement at all.

[Fatbat]

With a wide open window to win and more budding young stars on the way, the FO needs to set up a path to a championship in the next couple years. I think we are in for a very unexpected off season. It has started out as bad as it possibly could have. 

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This is just one part of the equation that the "be the Rays," crowd doesn't want to acknowledge. If it was that easy to replace established talent with cheap, young players and maintain or improve production, every team would do it. Every. Single. One. The line between TB and those Pittsburgh teams of the early 2000s into the 2010s is razor thin. Idk why anybody would prefer the Twins operate like TB when, as has been pointed out across this thread, the funds are are there, i.e. available, if MN wants to spend. 

You're fighting a losing battle. Not because you're wrong, it's just impossible to "win," an argument against an internet GM. I can't believe the credentials card hasn't been played yet. 

Plus "be the Rays" is unachievable for anyone else, apparently. Because they are the only ones to keep it going for more than a few years.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Darn good point.  I thought the same thing but just let it go.  What I was thinking when I responded was that some of the multi-million dollar facilities upgrades (if planned) could be postponed.

My working assumption is that they've already been moving around the large capitol spend items over the last couple of years. The Correa spend was something of a surprise both years and had to be accounted for somewhere.

The scoreboard update probably happened because it was customer facing while maybe something needed in Ft Myers can wait.

Every RIF I've been involved in came after a deep look at other spend first and this probably isn't much different. The easiest and most effective financial lever they have is not signing a Gallo. Fortunately the team is in a good spot for that.

[1985Fan]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Agree the moves made need to be to bring in legit studs.  I'm OK with bringing a pitcher that only almost fills Grays spot if he's young, controllable and projectable but I wouldn't be spending 10-15m on a reclamation project.  Also agreed that Kepler and Polo set a very nice floor.  If they are getting beat out at a spot that will be a good thing all around.  They are also going to provide more value at cost than anything we could sign or trade them for at this point.  If we think we want to bring in studs, they won't get it done without major sweetening.  Then we lose their production, the prospects and risk back filling at a lower level.  The more I think about it the right move is to wait until someone forces them off their spots.

I'm also more intrigued with the idea of calling Kepler the primary center fielder against righties.  Hear me out, hes not Kiermaier out there but should be solid.  I know he supposedly doesn't want to but he took coaching mid-season and adjusted.  The team and his agent should present that if he goes to free agency as a solid center fielder that hits 30 HR the Twins won't be able to afford him.  He will make a ton of money and free up a lot of roster concerns.  Let the hand cannon play right and free up left field for more rotation types.  Get what you can out of Buxton and if he's miraculously healed its a good problem.

It also saves $10m spend in center field.  We are halfway to the cut already.

As for the pitching, you and I agree on the target but we disagree on which bank account to use to pay for it.  I'm with you that not all of these prospects are going to pay out but they are a store of value from which they can tap.  I'm OK with selling anyone but Walker, Lee, ERod and um, thats about it.  Those three could go to if the target was a greek god of pitching.  My guy I'm shopping is Julien and by himself he can get a pretty decent pitcher.  Add some prospects and go for it.

Anyone can spend money but truly well run businesses see and move value around.

 

It takes a lot of cutting in the offices to get to one player value cut.  Plus the incremental value of losing analytics or scouting downstream value potentially costs much more than saved.  The optics are worse but I'd rather not have Gallo than $11m cuts in player development, medical etc. 

 

Agree with everything here except the Festa part as the lone untouchable.  Do you know something we don't?  Question for another discussion, welcome aboard.

It does illustrate that we know nothing about how anyone values our prospects and what we can actually get.  If the Mariners are in love with Yassar Mercedes, great, I'm not.  Go for it.

I don’t know have inside information on Festa. Just my opinion that he has the “stuff” and the body to be a front line starter at the MLB level and soon. Maybe as soon as midway through 2024. The FO has their value of twins prospects, it’s now their job to gauge market value and determine what trades, if any, will improve the roster. I hear that Burnes is available. I wonder if Glasnow is also available. 
Another point to consider is that all the top FA that fans want the Twins to break the bank on all started out in MiLB and developed into stars. Even AAA players are not finished products. Adjustments, sometimes minor, can push a middling prospect into a quality player or pitcher. 

[Jocko87]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/astros-rumors-payroll-space-maldonado-neris-free-agents-outfield.html

Is this relevant?

[Johnny Ringo]

I say all of this a little tongue-in-cheek. Maybe it will be taken that way. Maybe not.

The real winner in this is Mr. Bonnes. He throws out a flamethrower title (Meltdown!!) and then watches as 160 plus comments are registered. We've got eyeballs baby!!!!!!

The same Mr. Bonnes who suggested two weeks ago on his podcast that the Twins 2024 payroll should be $170 million because it was $154 million last year and those players need a cost-of-living increase. I hadn't laughed that hard in a while. Thank you. I needed that. 

I would guess that Falvey's comments might have been floated to right-size expectations like this. I have no idea where that comment came from (we lost $54 million in revenue, let's spend more!!) but there it was. This podcast's popularity suggests that it is a thought leader.  

The Twins will be fine. I have increasing confidence in the FO and the next-gen ownership to do smart and competitive things. Lets give them a chance.

But, y'all sign up for the Patreon. Podcasters need to fight inflation too.      

[saviking]

20 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not telling you to stop complaining about Correa... I only chimed in response to your suggestion that they could get a "couple of top 50 prospects" in a trade of Correa.

Whatever your point is... thinking two top 50 prospects come back in return is going to poison your overall point. The Twins signed Correa to that contract because they like Correa... they wanted Correa in a Twins uniform to help us win games right now and the contract was how much it cost to acquire him.   

To your overall point of consternation as you explain above.

Part of what you say is a legitimate argument although you will find plenty of TD posters who are ready to argue with you. Should teams in our financial range jump in with the big clubs with big budgets and compete for high dollar free agents. That's a good question and the argument is legitimate. Big dollar free agents are indeed risky and clubs in the Twins financial range get hurt bad if they miss, it severely limits what they can spend on a supporting cast of players around him so I can see how you feel that way. 

However... when you say "that other teams were passing on him" and using that as an argument against Correa. You are wrong... other teams were not passing on Correa... they were passing on the price to acquire Correa. If you want the player... you have to pay what it takes to acquire the player. The other 29 teams set the price. The Twins didn't pay 200 million to get Correa when the next closest offer was 50 Million. This is the nature of free agency. 

When you say "The fact we would have to throw in money to get him off our hands confirms he'd not worth what we are paying him and that has been my point all along".

It confirms no such thing. That comment shows a lack of understanding of how free agency works. If you want to buy a 57 Chevy and so do two other people. Bob stops at 80,000, Natalie decided she will spend 99,000 and you offer 100,000 and you get the Chevy. You can't call Bob and Natalie after driving around the car for a year and then offer to sell them that Chevy for 100,000 as long as they throw in a couple of top 50 prospects. If they wanted to spend 100,000 for the 57 Chevy they would have spent it when the 57 Chevy was available before you bought it. 

Your overall point is legitimate... you are right that the Twins were lucky to get out of the Donaldson contract. Should the Twins be in these waters at all is worthy of debate.

It's these little sub points that are way way off base. 

 

Yes, I through the two 50 top minor leagues in with out giving it too much thought. No way someone gives us anywhere near that. 

But, that would probably be the cost of most other players earning 36 million a year or at least something far more that what we could get for Correa IF he agreed to a trade.

I tried to like the origiinal trade from Houston. But as I watched him through out the year I just could see that much value in him for that type of money. Money that handicaps a mid market team. 

When Correa decided not to come back I was thrilled! Then I watched two deals fail and heard we were talking contract with Correa again. After resigning with us I decided to give  orrea a chance to change my mind. Only this year his performance was worse than the previous year. Everyonegives him cudis for getting a few hits in the Playoffs in Houston. There, we knew he was a play off warrier.

I suppose I will start out giving Correa the benefit of the doubt next year hoping he gets off to a good start but I actually cringed when he came to the plate with runners on. Not only dud he not knock them in he was a huge rally killer with all off the fmdouble plays he hit into. It woukd have been better if he had just struck out.

But yes, I plead insanity for haphazordly throwing two top 50 minor leaguers in there. But to be honest, I'd trade him for just about anyone to get his 36 mill off our books and open up SS for Lewis or Lee. 

But that's just me. Thanks for putting up with my rants. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

Yes, I through the two 50 top minor leagues in with out giving it too much thought. No way someone gives us anywhere near that. 

But, that would probably be the cost of most other players earning 36 million a year or at least something far more that what we could get for Correa IF he agreed to a trade.

I tried to like the origiinal trade from Houston. But as I watched him through out the year I just could see that much value in him for that type of money. Money that handicaps a mid market team. 

When Correa decided not to come back I was thrilled! Then I watched two deals fail and heard we were talking contract with Correa again. After resigning with us I decided to give  orrea a chance to change my mind. Only this year his performance was worse than the previous year. Everyonegives him cudis for getting a few hits in the Playoffs in Houston. There, we knew he was a play off warrier.

I suppose I will start out giving Correa the benefit of the doubt next year hoping he gets off to a good start but I actually cringed when he came to the plate with runners on. Not only dud he not knock them in he was a huge rally killer with all off the fmdouble plays he hit into. It woukd have been better if he had just struck out.

But yes, I plead insanity for haphazordly throwing two top 50 minor leaguers in there. But to be honest, I'd trade him for just about anyone to get his 36 mill off our books and open up SS for Lewis or Lee. 

But that's just me. Thanks for putting up with my rants. 

It's all good. 

Myself personally... I'm happy with the signing... still am despite last years performance... but yeah... it did shake my world and I hope he rebounds big time in 2024.   

Mostly though... I was shocked by the signing. Signing this big a free agent for that big of dollars is something the Twins have not done so I wasn't prepared for them to do it. I had dismissed the possibility no matter how many rumors were out there. 

So when they got it done... not matter how many failed medical reports it took to get it done... I fell out of my chair that has been built on history. 

All in All... I think Carlos is good baseball player who will help us win games and from there I don't worry about the money. It costs what it costs to get him and I think we have enough young talent on the roster and young talent coming up that we have the financial room to keep a decent team around him...

But... most of all... I like what the signing represents... I don't believe they can walk through this big money free agent door again and again but the signing represents that the possibility of walking through the door actually exists. 

So... Carlos is one of us... he isn't going anywhere... now we got to staff the roster around him.  

 

[rv78]

With all of the chatter about spending to win now or trading away the veterans for more porspects I know one thing is certain. The spending for veterans that the Twins brought in last off-season did little to help the Twins win in 2023. Gallo ($11M) hit .177. Correa ($33.3M) hit .230. Vazquez ($10M) hit .223. Taylor ($4.5M) hit .220. Solano ($2M) hit .282. Castro ($1.8M) hit .257. Farmer ($5.585M) hit .256. Ironically the guys that cost the least produced better than the ones that cost the most. It doesn't take a genius to see why they struggled to score runs most of the season. SPENDING for veterans DOESN'T guarantee any more success than not spending. To spout-off endlessly that the Twins just need to spend money to win a Championship won't make it happen. They need to spend it on the right players, players that produce consistantly year after year. Unfortunately, they are NOT doing that and this year proved it. Even more frightening is that they have close to $50M tied up in 2 players that are not consistant producers. That is going to be a heavy burden for the next 5 years.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, rv78 said:

With all of the chatter about spending to win now or trading away the veterans for more porspects I know one thing is certain. The spending for veterans that the Twins brought in last off-season did little to help the Twins win in 2023. Gallo ($11M) hit .177. Correa ($33.3M) hit .230. Vazquez ($10M) hit .223. Taylor ($4.5M) hit .220. Solano ($2M) hit .282. Castro ($1.8M) hit .257. Farmer ($5.585M) hit .256. Ironically the guys that cost the least produced better than the ones that cost the most. It doesn't take a genius to see why they struggled to score runs most of the season. SPENDING for veterans DOESN'T guarantee any more success than not spending. To spout-off endlessly that the Twins just need to spend money to win a Championship won't make it happen. They need to spend it on the right players, players that produce consistantly year after year. Unfortunately, they are NOT doing that and this year proved it. Even more frightening is that they have close to $50M tied up in 2 players that are not consistant producers. That is going to be a heavy burden for the next 5 years.

That's some awful use of one statistic to make a point. Taylor and Solano and Castro 100% saved this team. CC did a lot of other things than hit for average. 

Not one person has ever said spending guarantees anything....but we know not spending makes it nearly impossible to win the WS (only 8 in the last thirty years weren't in the top 10 in spending).

[rv78]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's some awful use of one statistic to make a point. Taylor and Solano and Castro 100% saved this team. CC did a lot of other things than hit for average. 

Not one person has ever said spending guarantees anything....but we know not spending makes it nearly impossible to win the WS (only 8 in the last thirty years weren't in the top 10 in spending).

Point is, they are wasting money on players that don't perform. Correa is one of them. He's been given an ALL-Star type contract. In his 9 years he's been there twice. He's been touted as a great defensive SS yet he's only won a Gold Glove once. How many seasons has he had 200 hits or 30HR's or 100RBI's? Not one! He's paid like a superstar and isn't close. Buxton is just as bad if not worse. He's only played 1 full season in his 9 year career. Again, 1 Gold Glove, only 1 All-Star appearance. And these 2 guys are the foundation that they are trying to build around. I'd gladly take the money from both and use it on players that can play, play everyday and produce every year. It is money wasted and the only way they can prove me wrong is if they both play at a high level for the entire season. Good Luck with that.

I did forget 1 thing that Correa was good at... hitting into a league leading number of double plays.

[KirbyDome89]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Plus "be the Rays" is unachievable for anyone else, apparently. Because they are the only ones to keep it going for more than a few years.

Exactly. If an actual blueprint existed somebody would've cracked the code by now. 

[stringer bell]

On 11/8/2023 at 10:33 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Second is Farmer. Would love to keep him. Good leader, solid to excellent fielder, can play SS, relatively cheap at $5-6m a year. I would be surprised if he's non-tendered. Wrong poker move. You tender him, try to sign him for $4-5m with a promise not to trade him, if he says no you go to arb where he probably gets $6m, and then you decide what to do. By then, the landscape will be in much better focus. Not smart to just give him away for free with a non-tender. Yes, he is replaceable with Castro and Gordon, who are not as good, and Lewis, Castro or Lee can play SS if Correa gets hurt. The good news is that if he is made available Farmer is the best SS option out there for a needy team, by far.  I think a package of Farmer plus a solid prospect (think Prato, Keirsey, or Martin, not Festa, Lee or Jenkins) might be the basis for a solid to strong MLB reliever or even a really good AA pitcher, plus a high upside A ball guy from another team. As with Polanco, I think it depends on whether there's a good trade out there for Farmer. 

Late to this thread, so apologies if this has been covered, once a player is tendered a contract, they are eligible for arbitration, so the arb number would be the floor for the coming year's salary. If the Twins can get Farmer to agree to a below-market perhaps multi-year contract, it has to be before the non-tender deadline. Farmer's value as the backup shortstop is lessened in the coming year with Lewis on the squad and Lee ready to come up from St. Paul for any disabling injury to Correa. Willi Castro can play a decent shortstop to fill in for a day or two. 

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Late to this thread, so apologies if this has been covered, once a player is tendered a contract, they are eligible for arbitration, so the arb number would be the floor for the coming year's salary. If the Twins can get Farmer to agree to a below-market perhaps multi-year contract, it has to be before the non-tender deadline. Farmer's value as the backup shortstop is lessened in the coming year with Lewis on the squad and Lee ready to come up from St. Paul for any disabling injury to Correa. Willi Castro can play a decent shortstop to fill in for a day or two. 

Plus, let's face it, Farmer was acquired to be the bridge to Lewis, and now they have Lewis and (soon) Lee for SS.....so, it wouldn't shock me if he was not on the Twins next year.

[saviking]

21 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's all good. 

Myself personally... I'm happy with the signing... still am despite last years performance... but yeah... it did shake my world and I hope he rebounds big time in 2024.   

Mostly though... I was shocked by the signing. Signing this big a free agent for that big of dollars is something the Twins have not done so I wasn't prepared for them to do it. I had dismissed the possibility no matter how many rumors were out there. 

So when they got it done... not matter how many failed medical reports it took to get it done... I fell out of my chair that has been built on history. 

All in All... I think Carlos is good baseball player who will help us win games and from there I don't worry about the money. It costs what it costs to get him and I think we have enough young talent on the roster and young talent coming up that we have the financial room to keep a decent team around him...

But... most of all... I like what the signing represents... I don't believe they can walk through this big money free agent door again and again but the signing represents that the possibility of walking through the door actually exists. 

So... Carlos is one of us... he isn't going anywhere... now we got to staff the roster around him.  

 

I hear yah. I just need to get to the point that I accept the signing and embrace Carlos. The reason I was upset is that I too think we have tremendous young talent and that Correa was keeping Lewis or Lee from playing shortstop at about 33 million a year less or more but you are right, his salary now forces the Twins to play even more of our young talent. 

You're right, our young talent can carry the old man so it's all good .. I guess  

[Major League Ready]

On 11/10/2023 at 2:59 PM, rv78 said:

With all of the chatter about spending to win now or trading away the veterans for more porspects I know one thing is certain. The spending for veterans that the Twins brought in last off-season did little to help the Twins win in 2023. Gallo ($11M) hit .177. Correa ($33.3M) hit .230. Vazquez ($10M) hit .223. Taylor ($4.5M) hit .220. Solano ($2M) hit .282. Castro ($1.8M) hit .257. Farmer ($5.585M) hit .256. Ironically the guys that cost the least produced better than the ones that cost the most. It doesn't take a genius to see why they struggled to score runs most of the season. SPENDING for veterans DOESN'T guarantee any more success than not spending. To spout-off endlessly that the Twins just need to spend money to win a Championship won't make it happen. They need to spend it on the right players, players that produce consistantly year after year. Unfortunately, they are NOT doing that and this year proved it. Even more frightening is that they have close to $50M tied up in 2 players that are not consistant producers. That is going to be a heavy burden for the next 5 years.

Spending is without a doubt advantageous.  The Dodgers and Yankees win records will attest to that advantage while Seager and Semien are testaments to your point about picking the right free agents.  To your point … there are countless examples of free agents that do not live up to expectations or fail completely.  I remember some here being incensed that the Twins did not sign the sure thing that was Madison Bumgardner.

Here is the part that eludes fans.  There are about 10 teams that generate $100-300M more than the Twins.  So, while spending is advantageous, when the twins run out of money, those teams have $100M plus to spend.  The collective incremental spending those teams have is probably in the neighborhood of $2B.  Those teams are going to take that incremental income and absorb the top free agents.  This is an absolute of economics we refuse to accept.

By far the most important aspects of roster building for the twins are drafting or trading for prospects and developing them.  Ironically, being productive at developing players enables more free agent spending.  However, teams with the twins level of income are only going to be able to afford a couple big contracts at any given time where the Dodgers and Yankees can afford several.  Our acquisitions better be good and last year they were not. Correa and Buxton produced 1.7 WAR.  Semien and Seager produce 12.4.  The biggest potential improvement is for the high-priced guys we already have to perform.  It is really odd to me that people seem to accept Correa's poor production because they are happy the twins spent a lot to sign him.
 

[Scott51104]

$5M left over for a reliever or gross and old veteran utility player.

 

Darn - wish I were a veteran utility player

[DJL44]

On 11/8/2023 at 2:04 PM, Dave Lemke said:

At this time it has disappeared. They don't know now what a new deal will look like. Perhaps it goes down and perhaps it goes up but at this point it is an unknown. You don't buy a new car after losing your job because you feel a new job will appear.

Maybe they won't sell any tickets either! They'd better cut payroll to nothing in case nobody attends games in person!