Reviewing 7 Potential Free Agent Fits for the Twins

[Cody Christie]

The World Series has come to a close, which means baseball’s off-season will start heating up. Here are seven potential free-agent fits for the Twins this winter.

Image courtesy of Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

National outlets are starting to compile their lists of top free agents available this winter. Shohei Ohtani might receive the largest free-agent contract in baseball history, but there are other names to consider. Over at The Athletic, Jim Bowden ranked his top 40 free agents for the 2023-24 offseason and predicted their potential contracts. Here are seven players who might fit with the Twins. 

Sonny Gray, SP
Free Agent Rank: 10
Contract Prediction: 3-years, $64 million

The Twins would love to have Gray back in the rotation, but this front office has tended not to invest a lot of money in free-agent starting pitching. Minnesota is expected to extend a qualifying offer to Gray, which comes with draft pick compensation if he signs with another club. There aren’t a lot of starting pitchers better than Gray on the open market, which will drive up his price higher than Bowden’s prediction. This is especially true with teams like the Cardinals, Orioles, or Braves potentially interested in adding him to their rotation. 

Twins Prediction: Gray’s cost gets too high, and he signs with another contending team

Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF
Free Agent Rank: 20
Contract Prediction: 2-years, $16 million

Merrifield is a puzzling fit for the Twins because he is tied to two positions the Twins seemed to have covered for the foreseeable future. However, he is a consistent right-handed bat, which is something the Twins have needed to improve in recent seasons. Merrifield might be fine with being a veteran depth piece, but the Twins already have Kyle Farmer, who offers more defensive flexibility. 

Twins Prediction: The Twins won’t contact him unless he is still on the market at the start of spring training. 

Justin Turner, 1B/3B/DH
Free Agent Rank: 26
Contract Prediction: 1-year, $12 million

Turner’s name has been thrown out as a potential fit with the Twins in previous years, so it will be interesting to see if he is tied to the club this winter. He is entering his age-39 season and has averaged a 122 OPS+ since 2019. His ability to play both corner infield spots might be valuable to the Twins, and he can provide some pop from the right side. However, the Twins will have cheaper options, with Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda fitting into a similar role to Turner. 

Twins Prediction: His asking price will be higher than the Twins are comfortable considering some unknowns around their payroll for next season. 

Tommy Pham, LF/DH
Free Agent Rank: 28
Contract Prediction: 1-year, $7 million

Pham’s name was tied to the Twins at the trade deadline because the team was looking for a solid right-handed bench bat. The Mets traded him to the Diamondbacks, and he has performed well during their World Series run. Pham fits with the Twins as a potential fourth outfielder, mainly because his cost would be lower than some of the other free-agent options. 

Twins Prediction: Another club will make him a solid offer based on his postseason performance before the Twins are really in the mix for him.

Kenta Maeda, SP
Free Agent Rank: 34
Contract Prediction: 1-year, $10 million with incentives

The Twins know Maeda well, and he finished the season on a solid note with the club. He returned from Tommy John surgery this season and showed he can continue to be an effective middle-of-the-order starting pitcher. Maeda will turn 36 next season, and some teams will likely stay away from him because of his injury history. 

Twins Prediction: The Twins decide to go in another direction and target some of the other veteran pitchers on this list. 

Hyun Jin Ryu, SP
Free Agent Rank: 35
Contract Prediction: 1-year, $8 million with incentives

Ryu is a sneaky good fit for the Twins because he is a player that fits well with the type of free-agent pitcher this front office targets. He likely can be signed for a short-term deal, and there is plenty of upside potential. In August, Ryu returned from Tommy John surgery and made 11 starts for the Blue Jay while posting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He is not a hard-throwing pitcher, with his fastball topping out in the high 80s, but he offers a variety of offspeed pitches to keep batters off-balance. 

Twins Prediction: The Twins will target him early to add depth to the starting rotation and are willing to guarantee him more overall money than other teams. 

James Paxton, SP
Free Agent Rank: 39
Contract Prediction: 1-year, $8 million with incentives

Paxton made six starts from 2020-2022 before pitching 96 innings for Boston in 2023. He was a borderline All-Star in the first half of last season with a 2.73 ERA before tiring in the second half. Paxton ended the year on the IL, which isn’t surprising for a pitcher who has struggled to stay healthy. Minnesota likes to add depth to their rotation, but Paxton is too much of a question mark at this point in his career. 

Twins Prediction: The Twins will stay away because of his lengthy injury history. 

Which player from above should the Twins target? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[DJL44]

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

[Karbo]

I would give Gray an offer of around 3yrs, 75 mil and he might take it, though I think he would rather move on. I would also give Maeda an offer in the 10-12 range. I'm not so sure I'd really consider any of the others due to the fact they have enough depth in the minors. Keep the cost down and see what the kids can do.

[weitz41]

I hadn't thought of Ryu. Isn't he kind of a left-handed Maeda? Depending on the plan for Varland one of both would fit on shorter deals. Not blow your socks off moves but probably better than say a Flaherty signing, or a dice roll like Montas.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So of the 7 potential fits, the Twins aren't in on 6 of them....

When you are talking taking flier on older SP with relatively identical salaries, why would the Twins walk from Maeda?  Familiarity is a huge thing (see Carlos Correa).  Unless there are things the public doesn't know, it doesn't make sense to go after Paxton or Ryu instead of Maeda. 

Gray is not a "true" FA.  They have been willing to pay their own guys (again, see Carlos Correa).  Gray back to the Twins at a higher than expected contract would not surprise me in the least,

Turner is a viable option for the unknowns you state. Term and cost will be relatively manageable.

Nobody else on the list moves the needle.

[TwinsAce]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

Yes, better than the current Dallas.  Dallas hasn't had WAR over 2 or ERA+ over 100 since 2020 and only had 2020 (and maybe 2015) to compare to what Ryu did in 2018-2020.

Ryu seems like a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point with an ERA+ of 100-10+, but has shown the potential for more.
The downside is that he probably is closer to 5 innings than 6+.  However, this isn't that far off from Sonny Gray.

[PatPfund]

Maeda or Ryu at those costs could be done. Gray would be the best, but not at what he'll cost (this past year reeks of outlier in both results and health making three years iffy). Not interested in any hitters floated here or elsewhere so far; the Twins have plenty of right-handed bats who hopefully will see far more, and far better years next year (Lewis, Miranda, Correa, Vasquez, maybe Buxton to name a few). Adding a temp player just makes for roadblocks for longer term solutions (see Gallo, Joey).

[ValleySpringsFan]

Maeda in his second year after TJ could be a great value in 2024. I was surprised he didn't get a start against Houston in the division series. He was pitching better than Joe Ryan late in the season, was he not? And he might go for the kind of incentives-heavy contract the Twins are likely to offer.

[JD-TWINS]

59 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So of the 7 potential fits, the Twins aren't in on 6 of them....

When you are talking taking flier on older SP with relatively identical salaries, why would the Twins walk from Maeda?  Familiarity is a huge thing (see Carlos Correa).  Unless there are things the public doesn't know, it doesn't make sense to go after Paxton or Ryu instead of Maeda. 

Gray is not a "true" FA.  They have been willing to pay their own guys (again, see Carlos Correa).  Gray back to the Twins at a higher than expected contract would not surprise me in the least,

Turner is a viable option for the unknowns you state. Term and cost will be relatively manageable.

Nobody else on the list moves the needle.

Option 1) Maeda 2 years for $21M…….Better would be 1 year for $12M with a team option 2nd year at $12M or $2M buyout. He’s 36 with a re-built (good as new) elbow. He’s a for sure 130 innings guy, however you want to use him.

A must) QO for Gray and we get a good pick.

Option 2) Offer Jordan Montgomery 4 years with a 5th year option of his choice. $24M/year ……….that’s a couple Million more per year than Gray but he’s age 30 - 6’5” & 230lbs - great recent post-season success - 3.30ERA over essentially 7 years in MLB

[TopGunn#22]

I'm moving Varland to the bullpen for 2024, so Ryu, who is one year younger, a better pitcher, LH and would cost $8 million for one year vs $21 million for TWO of Maeda?  If that's how it's laid out, and I also go sign a FA like Giolito at 3 years $36 million to fill a rotation spot, well, that's not too bad.   

I believe Ryu is a better pitcher than Maeda.  The Dodgers did as well, because Ryu was always in their rotation while Maeda was always pushed to the bullpen come playoff time.  One year of Ryu at that price is much less risky than 2 years of Maeda, especially with Ryu one year younger.  

A rotation of Lopez, Giolito, Ryan, Ober, Ryu and Paddock with Varland bolstering the pen would be a pretty good plan if it all came to fruition.  

[chpettit19]

Justin Turner would be the only guy I'd take off this list, unless you can get Gray for 2 years plus an option. I don't see any of the other guys really being guys who could raise the ceiling on the team that's already in place.

[DocBauer]

Gray is only back on a 1 or 2yr deal. It's just a reality of the situation.

Pham is a maybe. He wouldn't be expensive, and is a good hitter still. But I think there's guys out there very similar for the same cost, or less, that might fit the team structure better. But I'm at least interested.

Ryu is a nice idea, and has been a really good pitcher when he's been healthy. But why him over Maeda? Kenta throws as hard or harder, is familiar to and with the team, and is a better fit.

Merrifield for 2 or 3 years ago I'd be interested in. Not any longer.

Turner if we wanted a full time DH who could still play a passable corner INF spot once in a while.

Really, there's not much here.

[jimmyc]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

yes

[Trov]

Ryu strikes me a smoke and mirror guy.  He will get outs and you always wonder how.  One day he will fall of the cliff, but he seems to keep chugging along.  I would be willing to take a flier on him for depth to basically replace Madeda, not looking to fill in for Gray. 

[DJL44]

19 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

Yes, better than the current Dallas.  Dallas hasn't had WAR over 2 or ERA+ over 100 since 2020 and only had 2020 (and maybe 2015) to compare to what Ryu did in 2018-2020.

Ryu seems like a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point with an ERA+ of 100-10+, but has shown the potential for more.
The downside is that he probably is closer to 5 innings than 6+.  However, this isn't that far off from Sonny Gray.

His FIP was actually higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. K/BB was worse, HR rate was the same. He had the best defense in baseball behind him (four gold gloves) and pitched to contact. I'd be okay if they want to try to put Ryu in AAA and convert him to relief but I don't want him in the rotation at all.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Justin Turner would be the only guy I'd take off this list, unless you can get Gray for 2 years plus an option. I don't see any of the other guys really being guys who could raise the ceiling on the team that's already in place.

Word is the Diamondbacks want Turner bad.

[TwinsAce]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His FIP was actually higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. K/BB was worse, HR rate was the same. He had the best defense in baseball behind him (four gold gloves) and pitched to contact. I'd be okay if they want to try to put Ryu in AAA and convert him to relief but I don't want him in the rotation at all.

Right - I also see one year where he is pitching and then injured and another where he is building back from injury.  That doesn't mean he won't continue with a FIP close to 5, but I think he has more in his tank.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Word is the Diamondbacks want Turner bad.

He'd make sense for them. But he's the only guy on this list I'd be interested in the Twins going after (again, outside of a short Gray deal). This list overall is just not inspiring. If this is the pool the Twins are swimming in I'd much rather they just go with the young guys and cross their fingers somebody takes a big step forward. Don't expect the Twins to go after Turner, but he'd be the only guy on this list I'd be calling if I were running the FO.

[Minny505]

Ryu and Maeda are both mid-rotation guys. No thank you.

Paxton is a top-rotation guy, but hasn't had a healthy season...ever? No thank you.

Gray would be great, but there are deeper-pocketed teams that will sign him. They'd need a Correa-like series of events to get him back.

I still think the SP the Twins add is thru trade. Mitch Keller maybe? Another Marlins deal? Reid Detmers? Tyler Glasnow? All those, no matter how unlikely, seem more likely than any of the SPs listed here.

I could definitely see them adding Pham. If the Twins add any non-RP player in FA at all, I would put heavy odds on that player being a RHH OFer on a 1yr contract. Pham fits the bill. As does Taylor. Both smashed LHP in 2023 with a solid track record over their respective careers.

[KBJ1]

Maeda knows how to pitch and has the ability to be a solid #3 for a couple of years. His fastball was hitting 95 at times in August, when he was arguably our best pitcher. He tired a bit after as you could see his velocity was down.

Gray would be nice to keep, but not at $25M/yr.

Trading for SP is what they usually and should do. The only free agent that could really make a splash would be to sign Yamamoto to and 8-10 yr deal at $150M and hope you have just created a dynasty.

Forget any of those hitters mentioned. Don't need any middle of the road stopgaps. Martin is more than ready to take CF and a RH slugger for LF has been needed ever since Rosario left.

That just leaves depth at 1B. 

[SteveLV]

Gray and Turner and Maeda would be a SOLID off-season for the Twins.

We know Gray and Maeda, and Turner is a solid RH bat who can play 3B, 1B and DH.

[Jeff K]

On 11/6/2023 at 12:32 PM, DJL44 said:

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

Yes.  Keuchel was a nice story, but I don't think he will be on a major league roster next year.