Reviewing 7 Potential Free Agent Fits for the Twins

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

I hadn't thought of Ryu. Isn't he kind of a left-handed Maeda? Depending on the plan for Varland one of both would fit on shorter deals. Not blow your socks off moves but probably better than say a Flaherty signing, or a dice roll like Montas.

So of the 7 potential fits, the Twins aren't in on 6 of them....

When you are talking taking flier on older SP with relatively identical salaries, why would the Twins walk from Maeda?  Familiarity is a huge thing (see Carlos Correa).  Unless there are things the public doesn't know, it doesn't make sense to go after Paxton or Ryu instead of Maeda. 

Gray is not a "true" FA.  They have been willing to pay their own guys (again, see Carlos Correa).  Gray back to the Twins at a higher than expected contract would not surprise me in the least,

Turner is a viable option for the unknowns you state. Term and cost will be relatively manageable.

Nobody else on the list moves the needle.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

Yes, better than the current Dallas.  Dallas hasn't had WAR over 2 or ERA+ over 100 since 2020 and only had 2020 (and maybe 2015) to compare to what Ryu did in 2018-2020.

Ryu seems like a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point with an ERA+ of 100-10+, but has shown the potential for more.
The downside is that he probably is closer to 5 innings than 6+.  However, this isn't that far off from Sonny Gray.

I'm moving Varland to the bullpen for 2024, so Ryu, who is one year younger, a better pitcher, LH and would cost $8 million for one year vs $21 million for TWO of Maeda?  If that's how it's laid out, and I also go sign a FA like Giolito at 3 years $36 million to fill a rotation spot, well, that's not too bad.   

I believe Ryu is a better pitcher than Maeda.  The Dodgers did as well, because Ryu was always in their rotation while Maeda was always pushed to the bullpen come playoff time.  One year of Ryu at that price is much less risky than 2 years of Maeda, especially with Ryu one year younger.  

A rotation of Lopez, Giolito, Ryan, Ober, Ryu and Paddock with Varland bolstering the pen would be a pretty good plan if it all came to fruition.  

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

yes

Ryu strikes me a smoke and mirror guy.  He will get outs and you always wonder how.  One day he will fall of the cliff, but he seems to keep chugging along.  I would be willing to take a flier on him for depth to basically replace Madeda, not looking to fill in for Gray. 

19 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

Yes, better than the current Dallas.  Dallas hasn't had WAR over 2 or ERA+ over 100 since 2020 and only had 2020 (and maybe 2015) to compare to what Ryu did in 2018-2020.

Ryu seems like a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point with an ERA+ of 100-10+, but has shown the potential for more.
The downside is that he probably is closer to 5 innings than 6+.  However, this isn't that far off from Sonny Gray.

His FIP was actually higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. K/BB was worse, HR rate was the same. He had the best defense in baseball behind him (four gold gloves) and pitched to contact. I'd be okay if they want to try to put Ryu in AAA and convert him to relief but I don't want him in the rotation at all.

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Justin Turner would be the only guy I'd take off this list, unless you can get Gray for 2 years plus an option. I don't see any of the other guys really being guys who could raise the ceiling on the team that's already in place.

Word is the Diamondbacks want Turner bad.

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His FIP was actually higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. K/BB was worse, HR rate was the same. He had the best defense in baseball behind him (four gold gloves) and pitched to contact. I'd be okay if they want to try to put Ryu in AAA and convert him to relief but I don't want him in the rotation at all.

Right - I also see one year where he is pitching and then injured and another where he is building back from injury.  That doesn't mean he won't continue with a FIP close to 5, but I think he has more in his tank.

Ryu and Maeda are both mid-rotation guys. No thank you.

Paxton is a top-rotation guy, but hasn't had a healthy season...ever? No thank you.

Gray would be great, but there are deeper-pocketed teams that will sign him. They'd need a Correa-like series of events to get him back.

I still think the SP the Twins add is thru trade. Mitch Keller maybe? Another Marlins deal? Reid Detmers? Tyler Glasnow? All those, no matter how unlikely, seem more likely than any of the SPs listed here.

I could definitely see them adding Pham. If the Twins add any non-RP player in FA at all, I would put heavy odds on that player being a RHH OFer on a 1yr contract. Pham fits the bill. As does Taylor. Both smashed LHP in 2023 with a solid track record over their respective careers.

Maeda knows how to pitch and has the ability to be a solid #3 for a couple of years. His fastball was hitting 95 at times in August, when he was arguably our best pitcher. He tired a bit after as you could see his velocity was down.

Gray would be nice to keep, but not at $25M/yr.

Trading for SP is what they usually and should do. The only free agent that could really make a splash would be to sign Yamamoto to and 8-10 yr deal at $150M and hope you have just created a dynasty.

Forget any of those hitters mentioned. Don't need any middle of the road stopgaps. Martin is more than ready to take CF and a RH slugger for LF has been needed ever since Rosario left.

That just leaves depth at 1B. 

Gray and Turner and Maeda would be a SOLID off-season for the Twins.

We know Gray and Maeda, and Turner is a solid RH bat who can play 3B, 1B and DH.

On 11/6/2023 at 12:32 PM, DJL44 said:

Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?

Yes.  Keuchel was a nice story, but I don't think he will be on a major league roster next year.