Trade for a lefthanded starting pitcher? Three options

[DJL44]

Adding a lefty in the rotation to replace Sonny Gray would give a different look that could especially come in handy during the playoffs. Here are three options who will not cost much to acquire.

1) Chris Sale - Boston has a new person at the top of the organization and I'm guessing they will want to overhaul the roster. Sale was effective in 2023 while throwing over 100 innings for the first time since 2019. He will be 35 years old in 2024 but the contract is just a one year $27.5M commitment with a $20M vesting option that will only vest if Sale has a great season. The Twins have the pitching depth to cover his inevitable trip to the injured list.

2) Robbie Ray - Like Sale, Robbie Ray offers Cy Young winner upside with injury risk downside. Ray had ligament replacement surgery and won't be available until the latter half of the 2024 season. The Mariners got along just fine without him last season and should be willing to offload the 3 years and $72M they have committed to his ages 32-34 seasons. Just like with Sale the Twins have depth to cover for Ray's injury rehab. If Ray pitches really well he's likely to opt out from his contract and it would be just a one year rental.

3) Kyle Freeland - The longtime Rockies starter turns 31 next season and has 3 years, $47M left on his contract. His strikeout rate has been dropping but he may be able to bounce back by leaving the thin air of Colorado and joining an organization that uses pitching analytics to improve performance. If not, he could continue his role as an innings eating 3/4 starter for the Twins.

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

3) Kyle Freeland - The longtime Rockies starter turns 31 next season and has 3 years, $47M left on his contract. His strikeout rate has been dropping but he may be able to bounce back by leaving the thin air of Colorado and joining an organization that uses pitching analytics to improve performance. If not, he could continue his role as an innings eating 3/4 starter for the Twins.

Freeland catches anyone's eye, probably, as a candidate to improve simply by getting out of Coors Field, and in past years that would bear out under a quick glance at his home/road splits, but in 2023 he actually performed worse on the road.  He did have a couple of short stints on the IL with shoulder and oblique problems respectively, so maybe a trading partner can convince themselves that he'll be good to go next season.  Or maybe these injuries are a taste of his future.  Medical evals and good analytics probably are going to hold more sway than guesswork in this corner.

[Guest]

Is adding a lefty necessary? Does it have priority over getting the best available pitcher regardless of handness? I keep seeing people wanting to get a lefty without any real solid evidence of why a lefty is needed.  Is it because, we just wanna have a lefty? Please enlighten me why a lefty is so needed. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

1) Chris Sale - Boston has a new person at the top of the organization and I'm guessing they will want to overhaul the roster. Sale was effective in 2023 while throwing over 100 innings for the first time since 2019. He will be 35 years old in 2024 but the contract is just a one year $27.5M commitment with a $20M vesting option that will only vest if Sale has a great season. The Twins have the pitching depth to cover his inevitable trip to the injured list.

 

I wonder how his deferred money works. I don't think the Twins would want anything to do with that, but I'm sure they'd negotiate to get Boston to still pay for that. I wouldn't give up anything of value for him, but if you can get him for a system depth piece, and have Boston eat his deferred money, he'd be an intriguing bounce back bet.

I'd like to see them get a more sure thing for the rotation, though.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

Is adding a lefty necessary? Does it have priority over getting the best available pitcher regardless of handness? I keep seeing people wanting to get a lefty without any real solid evidence of why a lefty is needed.  Is it because, we just wanna have a lefty? Please enlighten me why a lefty is so needed. 

It's simply to have the platoon advantage. There are certain lineups where a LHP matches up better than a RHP who may be better in general.

[nicksaviking]

If they're going to replace Sonny Gray, I want them to replace Sonny Gray. I like Ray, but he can't be considered a top of the rotation arm with a TBD return date, and the other guys sound more like replacing Kenta Maeda.

The Arraez trade worked out great for both clubs last year, I'd hit up Miami again. Getting Luzardo or Garrett would be no less painful (and perhaps more painful) but I'd be willing to dip into that well again. Obviously there are other options if the scope was expanded to right handers as well.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If they're going to replace Sonny Gray, I want them to replace Sonny Gray. I like Ray, but he can't be considered a top of the rotation arm with a TBD return date, and the other guys sound more like replacing Kenta Maeda.

The Arraez trade worked out great for both clubs last year, I'd hit up Miami again. Getting Luzardo or Garrett would be no less painful (and perhaps more painful) but I'd be willing to dip into that well again. Obviously there are other options if the scope was expanded to right handers as well.

There are two lefty free agents who are better pitchers - Snell and Montgomery - but they'll have to outbid other teams for them.

Chris Sale's peripherals were great last year: fastball velocity got up to 97 MPH and statcast likes his movement on the offspeed pitches. Being a flyball pitcher in Fenway doesn't complement him well.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I wonder how his deferred money works. I don't think the Twins would want anything to do with that, but I'm sure they'd negotiate to get Boston to still pay for that. I wouldn't give up anything of value for him, but if you can get him for a system depth piece, and have Boston eat his deferred money, he'd be an intriguing bounce back bet.

It looks like $10M of his paycheck is deferred 15 years. That should make him even more attractive to the Twins. They would only have to pay him $17.5M next season and could put the rest in the bank for 15 years. That drops the salary cost by almost $3M.

The Red Sox might hold onto Sale until the deadline to see if they can get more prospect value in return.

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't mind having Sale, but I wouldn't trust him. He's not a guy I'm plugging into the #2 spot in the rotation, so the Twins still need to be looking for a top of the rotation arm in addition to him. Hopefully one that's longer-term and sustainable.

[tony&rodney]

The idea of adding a LH starting pitcher is a sound idea. I'm not sure who is available. Sale is a little too rich though. Freeland may benefit from escaping Coors Field but he has had more issues on the road. Finally, why would one think that Robbie Ray would opt out of his 2025-2026 payout of $50 million? He is unlikely to exceed that number as a free agent after 2024 when he will only have a partial year to establish himself. Ray has been a very good pitcher but his future is less certain than guys like Jordan Montgomery. I like the idea of a left-handed starter for a team to have a different look during a series, but right now the pickings are slim. 

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's simply to have the platoon advantage. There are certain lineups where a LHP matches up better than a RHP who may be better in general.

Also, to a lesser degree, it breaks up the opponents lineup and approach at least once in a series. And, to a lesser extent, if you have a pair of quality RH arms who are similar in velocity and approach, the LH provides a break between those arms, assuming he's of similar quality.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Adding a lefty in the rotation to replace Sonny Gray would give a different look that could especially come in handy during the playoffs. Here are three options who will not cost much to acquire.

1) Chris Sale - Boston has a new person at the top of the organization and I'm guessing they will want to overhaul the roster. Sale was effective in 2023 while throwing over 100 innings for the first time since 2019. He will be 35 years old in 2024 but the contract is just a one year $27.5M commitment with a $20M vesting option that will only vest if Sale has a great season. The Twins have the pitching depth to cover his inevitable trip to the injured list.

2) Robbie Ray - Like Sale, Robbie Ray offers Cy Young winner upside with injury risk downside. Ray had ligament replacement surgery and won't be available until the latter half of the 2024 season. The Mariners got along just fine without him last season and should be willing to offload the 3 years and $72M they have committed to his ages 32-34 seasons. Just like with Sale the Twins have depth to cover for Ray's injury rehab. If Ray pitches really well he's likely to opt out from his contract and it would be just a one year rental.

3) Kyle Freeland - The longtime Rockies starter turns 31 next season and has 3 years, $47M left on his contract. His strikeout rate has been dropping but he may be able to bounce back by leaving the thin air of Colorado and joining an organization that uses pitching analytics to improve performance. If not, he could continue his role as an innings eating 3/4 starter for the Twins.

To me, the obvious LH pitcher to pursue is Free Agent, Jordan Montgomery!!!!!

He’s 31. In his 9 year career, he has a 3.68 ERA. This year around 3.11 in regular season.

We have Gray - Mahle - Gallo - Polanco (IMO) - Maeda all going away…….that’s about $48M - $50M freed up $$ against the ‘22 budget.

Texas has Heaney - Eovaldi - Scherzer - deGrom totaling about $130M - $135M tied up in starting pitching for ‘24.

$94M for 4 years is $23.5M/year. I know there’s some budget concerns with what’s coming for TWINS in ‘25………offer $18M for first two years & then $29M for last two years?

He’s a lefty, which is secondary. He’s getting great post-season experience this year! He’s performing well in tough situations in these playoffs. Very good value, durable, & with proven success.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are two lefty free agents who are better pitchers - Snell and Montgomery - but they'll have to outbid other teams for them.

Chris Sale's peripherals were great last year: fastball velocity got up to 97 MPH and statcast likes his movement on the offspeed pitches. Being a flyball pitcher in Fenway doesn't complement him well.

Eduardo Rodriguez asks you to hold his beer. 

Snell might be better. Too expensive for the Twins and their approach to FA arms.

Montgomery and Rodriguez are so close in age and peripherals from what I've looked at. But Montgomery is riding a hot streak right now. Does that increase his value?

Again, I think the Twins will look toward a trade for a younger arm with control for at least a year. And there are questions about the TV deal and such. BUT, IF they went the FA route, they supposedly inquired about a 3 team deal that moved Gray to someone, and brought Rodriguez back. Might have just been rumor.

But IF, the FO was inclined to ACTUALLY break the Twins previous FA record for a FA SP signing, Rodriguez might be the choice. His career numbers are pretty solid, and his FIP is better than his career ERA. His K per 9 is about dead on with 9 per. His WHIP isn't great, but is solid. At 30yo, do they see something to unlock to take him to another level as a very good #3, with potential to be a #2? In other words, is he a Lopez kind of addition, but via FA rather than trade?

I'm not sold on Sale for a variety of reasons. Ray does nothing for 2023. Freeland I don't trust at all. And Sale is going to be out of any Twins price range.

Now, it's been a while since the Darvish and Wheeler days of signing speculation. And I still think the FO is going to concentrate on what's on hand, what's coming up, and probably making a trade for someone to replace Gray...assuming the market doesn't dip and thus make Gray affordable. 

So many IF's right now in regard to the TV deal, and the impending market. And the Twins aren't the only team to be done with Bally, or almost done. There might be ripple affects. Or, there might not be. 

I'd be very interested in someone like Rodriguez, if it's true the Twins like him and see something in him to raise the ceiling. He's LH, solid, 3yrs younger than Gray, averaged just shy of 6 IP per start last season, and might be a smart 3yr $60-66M sign. 

But then again, who knows, the Mets might go crazy and sign him for 6yrs at $25M per just because they can!

It would be nice to have a quality LH in the rotation for various reasons. But I really just want the best and deepest rotation I can get, regardless of handedness. I just think Rodriguez is someone to keep an eye on. I just don't expect a major SP FA signing.

I expect a trade. And then I expect a cheap FA signing on a milb deal for depth.

[Aerodeliria]

The Twins might be able to pry Kikuchi loose from the Jays...I'm not sure what the Jays would want in return, but it could be done.

[old nurse]

Is it called the hot stove league because if the team actually did a fan suggested trade somebody would get badly burned?

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 Freeland may benefit from escaping Coors Field but he has had more issues on the road. 

I think he may benefit more from an organizational change. The Rockies pitching development is like the Terry Ryan era Twins.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Montgomery and Rodriguez are so close in age and peripherals from what I've looked at. But Montgomery is riding a hot streak right now. Does that increase his value?

Montgomery has been good in the playoffs and Rodriguez, despite having a ring, has not. That will change the market.

Rodriguez is a solid lefthanded starter but he's also going to want to get paid. I don't think any of the 3 trade targets I suggested would cost much to acquire. Do people really think there will be a big market for Chris Sale?

[nicksaviking]

Jordan Montgomery has been good for three different teams across both leagues the last two years. Since he's come back from his injury issues three years ago, he's been about as consistently reliable as anyone in the league. He certainly would be amongst the safest bets when it comes to adding qualify pitching. Maybe not the Cy Young/#1 upside that Nola, Snell and Giolito have, but probably a safer bet not to be bust.

His strikeouts are trending down though, and the Twins do like that number up. 

[old nurse]

70 LHP started last year and these are the three options

 

Sale. A pitcher that has been injured the last three years. Due 27 million dollars. Due for another 20 million if a couple of sportswriters with votes decide he is Cy Young worthy

Robbie Ray. Had 2 great seasons, one in a contract year, the others a long time before that one. Due 23 million. May opt out of contract, otherwise 2 more years and 50 million

Kyle Freeland. Last 3 years about a 4.75 ERA. Vesting option if Baldelli lists him pitch 170 innings. When healthy he has done that. Analytics are not going to shave an earned run off his ERA 

70 LHP,, those are the options. Option of no LHP looks a lot better. 

[old nurse]

59 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

. Do people really think there will be a big market for Chris Sale?

No because they no longer have a Mookie Betts to trade with him

[Trov]

As always, if the deal is a good deal I would say go for any of the three, but none are guys I am high on.  Sale is far removed from his peak prime years and has not been healthy.  Yes, if he can be, and that is big if, he could maybe bounce back to form, but I am not giving up much of anything on that. Ray really has only had 1 great season, his cy young season in his FA year.  I am not convinced he will be more than a guy that has stuff but is up and down. Freeland is nothing special. His home road splits are actually he struck out more at home and walk less per 9 than on the road, so little hope he will be better getting away from CO.  Maybe we could teach him a thing or two, but nothing about him says he should be in our top 5 rotation if we do trade for him, other than the contract. Outside of his age 25 season, he has never had a season with below 4.00 FIP. 

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, old nurse said:

70 LHP started last year and these are the three options

There are more options. This list is not exhaustive. For example, Julio Urias is a great option if you only consider his stats on the back of the baseball card but he's facing a felony assault charge that makes it unlikely he will play baseball next season.

These pitchers should be easy to acquire and look like they could actually help the Twins. I wouldn't expect any of these pitchers to be traded until after the free agent lefty starters find a new home.

 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

There are more options. This list is not exhaustive. For example, Julio Urias is a great option if you only consider his stats on the back of the baseball card but he's facing a felony assault charge that makes it unlikely he will play baseball next season.

These pitchers should be easy to acquire and look like they could actually help the Twins. I wouldn't expect any of these pitchers to be traded until after the free agent lefty starters find a new home.

 

Recent history would say they will not help. Ray had TJ surgery last May. Freeland  has a back of rotation ERA, only a miracle will make it better than average. You can have an opinion that it can be improved to helpful but there isn’t anything to back that drastic of improvement. Sale has been injured most of the last 3 years. A 4.3 ERA in 20 starts is not going to be helpful it neither eats innings nor leads to victories.  Long ago Sale was great. Injuries have taken their toll

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Recent history would say they will not help. Ray had TJ surgery last May. Freeland  has a back of rotation ERA, only a miracle will make it better than average. You can have an opinion that it can be improved to helpful but there isn’t anything to back that drastic of improvement. Sale has been injured most of the last 3 years. A 4.3 ERA in 20 starts is not going to be helpful it neither eats innings nor leads to victories.  Long ago Sale was great. Injuries have taken their toll

Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda had ERA around 4.3 and their combined W/L record was 17-18. The Twins would have been much worse off without them. Sale could be reasonably expected to give the 2024 Twins at least what they got from Maeda in 2023. A lefthanded Maeda would have been very useful for playoff matchups.

Ray wouldn't be able to help until after the All-Star break but that means he would be available for the playoffs.

Freeland can help even if he doesn't improve much. There will be plenty of innings to eat, unless you want to give those innings to Winder and Woods-Richardson. He may have the least upside but also costs the least.

I would rather have Montgomery or Snell but they're going to want $100M to $120M free agent contracts [or higher, Carlos Rodon got 6 years $162M]. Snell will also cost a draft pick to sign.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a fan of any of those....get the best SP you can, regardless of handedness. 

[Guest]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are more options. This list is not exhaustive. For example, Julio Urias is a great option if you only consider his stats on the back of the baseball card but he's facing a felony assault charge that makes it unlikely he will play baseball next season.

These pitchers should be easy to acquire and look like they could actually help the Twins. I wouldn't expect any of these pitchers to be traded until after the free agent lefty starters find a new home.

 

20 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Also, to a lesser degree, it breaks up the opponents lineup and approach at least once in a series. And, to a lesser extent, if you have a pair of quality RH arms who are similar in velocity and approach, the LH provides a break between those arms, assuming he's of similar quality.

First, let me say, thank you for your responses.

Secondly, I AM NOT TRYING TO BE ARGUMENTATIVE BUT, if you only have one quality LH'er you do not get to have him pitch once per series. He will pitch one of every five games with little choice as to which game that is. You can't have the LH'er pitch the last game of a series and the last game of the next series UNLESS there are rainouts and/or days off and are willing to move him and other pitchers from their routine and, to do that continually throughout the season. It just does not seem reasonable, in my opinion.

If we should be so lucky to get a high quality LH'er, then great, otherwise I will take another RH'er if he is better than the LH'er available.

Again, DJL44 and DocBauer, thank you for your takes.

[jorgenswest]

Sign Ryu?

1 year at around 10 million. He returned to start 10 games after TJ.

His contract would still leave plenty of space to add salary.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Verified Member said:

He will pitch one of every five games with little choice as to which game that is.

Not exactly true if you move him to the bullpen and only use him once through the lineup. Then you can deploy using the platoon advantage and leverage.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am a Sale fan, if healthy he still has some of the best stuff in the league. With that said I am not giving up too much for him. I think the end of his career could be Verlander like.

[KBJ1]

Boy, that's a really short list of Leftys.

Sale has always been a great talent, but unless Boston eats some of that contract, not a realistic choice.

Aren't there any younger up and comers we could trade for? That would make much more sense.