Three’s Company: 3 Rookies Who Can Join Minnesota’s Young Core in 2024

[Mike Sixel]

Did the article even mention Severino at first as a platoon and replacement for Solano in general? 

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Jkeady12 said:

Any thoughts on Michael Helman? He looks good when he is healthy. 

I really wish more people would be considering him. I get he's a late bloomer...slowed by some injuries earlier in his career...but he really had a very nice 2022.

In 135 games he slashed .258/ .337/ .432/ .769 and 46 XBH, which included 20 HR. He also stole 40 bases in 45 chances and scored 101 runs and drove in 60

In 38 games this past season...slightly less than a third of 2022 due to injuries...he produced at an even higher clip: .302/ .367/ .544/ .911 with 20 XBH and 8 stolen bases in 9 tries. He scored 31 runs and drove in 40. Take those numbers and times them by 3...figuring a full season like he had in 2022...and he pretty much exceeds his 2022 numbers.

No question he's a late bloomer, and probably never a starter, much less a star. But he's go bat ability and a nice combination of speed and pop, and he can play 7 positions. He's got a good chance to be a solid and versatile bench option at some point in 2024, and perhaps beyond. A RH version of Castro, if you will. 

He's not in the same potential category as Lee, Martin, or perhaps Severino...but he's a rookie that I think has a chance to make a mark this next season.

[High heat]

I think Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are the best yet to come.  Guys who take good ABs and put the ball in play.  Austin Martin can steal a lot of bases.  If he can cover CF fill in in LF and 2B. 

[tcttejtf]

Julien is a lot better defensively than he gets credit for. Corey Koskie sucked at third until he logged thousands of practice reps. Julien is well down that path and was noticeably better at second base at the end of the season than he was at the beginning.

[MGM4706]

Still think Lewis can be biggest asset in the outfield. Speed, good arm. Wallner showed poorly in the playoffs. May be another Larnach. Struggling to hit breaking ball. Lewis, Buxton/Martin, Kepler with Wallner filling in would be strong outfield. Find FA 3rd basement.

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Still think Lewis can be biggest asset in the outfield. Speed, good arm. Wallner showed poorly in the playoffs. May be another Larnach. Struggling to hit breaking ball. Lewis, Buxton/Martin, Kepler with Wallner filling in would be strong outfield. Find FA 3rd basement.

Six games.... Corbin Carroll was 2-23 in the first six games of the nlcs., was he not good?

Why are people looking at six games and not the season? Wallner played 44 games in LF and accumulated 1.5 fwar.... A pace that was the second best in all of baseball in LF. 

[stringer bell]

I don't like Polanco in any type of utility role. He is adequate only at one position (2B) and was flat-out terrible at third base. 

I do like Austin Martin as a utility player/alternate center fielder. I don't know if he can be a competent center fielder, but he has skills that most of the Twins position players lack. He is a righty bat and the Twins are short of productive outfielders who hit right handed. He could also get at-bats as a RH hitting second baseman. Whether he starts the season with the Twins has a lot to do with Farmer and Solano returning.

Both Lee and Severino are long shots to go north for Opening Day. Lee needs a bit more time in St. Paul. He won't be on the 40-man roster, so he has to force his way, but I think he will eventually. Severino could have a path as a backup at the corners, but I think the Twins would prioritize Jose Miranda before turning to Severino, who also probably needs more time in AAA.

 

 

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Six games.... Corbin Carroll was 2-23 in the first six games of the nlcs., was he not good?

Why are people looking at six games and not the season? Wallner played 44 games in LF and accumulated 1.5 fwar.... A pace that was the second best in all of baseball in LF. 

It's definitely odd. Wallner was excellent for the Twins.

Equally confusing to me are the people who are putting Lewis back in the outfield: the team has said clearly that he's staying on the infield next season as well, so we should all stop with any roster construction that puts Royce in the OF. He's not going to play there absent an emergency and they're 100% NOT going to set up any plan for the season that expects him to play there. He might move to 2nd if they think having him there and Lee at 3rd is the best alignment in the future, but until Lee shoves his way up to MLB, I would expect Lewis to start the season at 3B.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

Still think Lewis can be biggest asset in the outfield. Speed, good arm. Wallner showed poorly in the playoffs. May be another Larnach. Struggling to hit breaking ball. Lewis, Buxton/Martin, Kepler with Wallner filling in would be strong outfield. Find FA 3rd basement.

How many Minor League games has Martin played in Center Field -- 12 -- with a  .971  success rate, below his .974 rate in 46 games at Second Base.

He has not shown he is good enough; wishful thinking does not win games.

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, RpR said:

How many Minor League games has Martin played in Center Field -- 12 -- with a  .971  success rate, below his .974 rate in 46 games at Second Base.

He has not shown he is good enough; wishful thinking does not win games.

You might be right, but a fielding percentage based on 12 games doesn't prove anything. Minor league fields and mistakes by others could account for the errors. 

Does Martin have the range? Can he make the throws? What kind of jumps does he get on fly balls? Those are the real questions for Martin.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I don't any of the 3 start with the Twins; all start the season at AAA. They should play Martin as the everyway CF, Lee as the everyday 3B and Severino at 1B. Play them where they would play with the Twins, that's what the minors are for.  All 3 could get a chance this year in the bigs if they produce in AAA. There is no need to rush any of them and no obvious place where any of them would be an upgrade.  

Let's also put one thing to bed - Lewis is not going to the OF. The Twins have made that decision and it isn't going to change. I think Lewis is the everyday 3B until Correa moves there and Lewis becomes the SS. That's been the plan and there is no reason to change that plan. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't any of the 3 start with the Twins; all start the season at AAA. They should play Martin as the everyway CF, Lee as the everyday 3B and Severino at 1B. Play them where they would play with the Twins, that's what the minors are for.  All 3 could get a chance this year in the bigs if they produce in AAA. There is no need to rush any of them and no obvious place where any of them would be an upgrade.  

Let's also put one thing to bed - Lewis is not going to the OF. The Twins have made that decision and it isn't going to change. I think Lewis is the everyday 3B until Correa moves there and Lewis becomes the SS. That's been the plan and there is no reason to change that plan. 

Probably don't want Lee at third in the minors then ... If you're correct about Lewis CC

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Let's also put one thing to bed - Lewis is not going to the OF. The Twins have made that decision and it isn't going to change.

I would like to see that quote on Lewis that Rocco or Falvey have guaranteed that Lewis won't play CF. During the season, I heard Rocco say Lewis is staying at 3B this year because we don't want to move him around during his rookie year. If Buxton can't play CF, Lewis is currently our best CF, offensively and defensively (and it isn't a position where players get hurt more at as documented in other threads). It puts an athletic player into an athletic position. It also clears out some of our logjam in the infield and gives us more payroll flexibility.

[Linus]

17 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I would like to see that quote on Lewis that Rocco or Falvey have guaranteed that Lewis won't play CF. During the season, I heard Rocco say Lewis is staying at 3B this year because we don't want to move him around during his rookie year. If Buxton can't play CF, Lewis is currently our best CF, offensively and defensively (and it isn't a position where players get hurt more at as documented in other threads). It puts an athletic player into an athletic position. It also clears out some of our logjam in the infield and gives us more payroll flexibility.

This. Lewis was the overall number 1 pick for a reason. He is a great athlete and you push that as far up the defensive spectrum that you can. If Buck can’t get healthy then Lewis is absolutely the best option. Let him be a difference maker at a premium position. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I would like to see that quote on Lewis that Rocco or Falvey have guaranteed that Lewis won't play CF.

This was addressed specifically and emphatically in the end-of-season press conference by both Baldelli and Falvey. It was reported on in addition to the commentary. This was stated as a close to the issue after making comments during the year and right after the last game. You can look this up.

Many may have the opinion that Lewis should be put into centerfield and that is a fair opinion/comment. However, when those who make the decisions are so specific and emphatic it is reasonable to accept their call and end your plans of a roster with Royce Lewis in centerfield. 

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This was addressed specifically and emphatically in the end-of-season press conference by both Baldelli and Falvey. It was reported on in addition to the commentary. This was stated as a close to the issue after making comments during and right after the last game. You can look this up.

https://theathletic.com/4960863/2023/10/14/twins-derek-falvey-rocco-baldelli/

Quote

Royce Lewis’ future position

... Lewis has been a shortstop for most of his career and also has the tools to play center field, but it sounds like he’ll be staying at the hot corner in 2024.

“Right now, I would foresee Royce playing third for us going into next spring,” Baldelli said. “I would anticipate Carlos (Correa) being at shortstop and Royce being at third.”

If you scroll further down in the article (surprised it's not behind an Athletic paywall), you'll see that center field is discussed with many possibilities mentioned by Falvey, none of whom is Lewis.  So the above is not an off-handed comment.

 

[FlyingFinn]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This was addressed specifically and emphatically in the end-of-season press conference by both Baldelli and Falvey.

Okay, except @ashbury is quoting "foresee" and "anticipate". I don't see anything emphatic in that but I see that is the plan. Plans do change though.................. especially if the "plan" is for Buxton to be in CF.

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Lewis has been a shortstop for most of his career and also has the tools to play center field, but it sounds like he’ll be staying at the hot corner in 2024.

“Right now, I would foresee Royce playing third for us going into next spring,” Baldelli said. “I would anticipate Carlos (Correa) being at shortstop and Royce being at third.”

 

[tony&rodney]

I should add that I believed that Royce Lewis might be a very good outfielder too. I did not think he looked very good at shortstop. That was two years ago before his second ACL injury. I was excited to see what he could do as a centerfielder. Alas. Last season after his injury and again early this past season there were several comments made by his agent (Scott Boras) about the best use for Lewis defensively. Boras commented that Royce is going to be a superstar playing "on the dirt". I took note. It seemed firm when we began to hear Baldelli and Falvey talk.

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, FlyingFinn said:

Okay, except @ashbury is quoting "foresee" and "anticipate".

#soyouretellingmetheresachance.jpg 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Linus said:

This. Lewis was the overall number 1 pick for a reason. He is a great athlete and you push that as far up the defensive spectrum that you can. If Buck can’t get healthy then Lewis is absolutely the best option. Let him be a difference maker at a premium position. 

3B and CF are basically the same on the defensive spectrum. CF has a slight advantage that LH throwing isn't an issue which helps with scarcity by providing a lot of athletic lefthanded hitters.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

3B and CF are basically the same on the defensive spectrum. CF has a slight advantage that LH throwing isn't an issue which helps with scarcity by providing a lot of athletic lefthanded hitters.

Well we are not going to agree on that one. 

[wabene]

Put me in the camp with Linus and the Fantastic Flying Finn. Just like the Sonny and Rocco narrative, the center field is dangerous narrative needs to be put to bed. I do remember Baldelli's quote and while at the time I thought it was unfortunate, it didn't seem like the door to Lewis at center was completely closed. 

We have seen this year how valuable defense at short and center can be. With our current roster construction, it makes too much sense to move Lewis to center. However I am not holding my breath as this is the front office that brought you Joey Gallo, lol. I will say that at this time, there still is hope that Buxton can play center. This plica surgery has a great success rate and short (6 weeks) recovery time. So I can see why right now considering the uncertainty of Buxton and the youngsters, that Lewis would stay put. 

[mikelink45]

On 10/28/2023 at 9:55 AM, terrydactyls said:

I don't want to get into a lengthy debate over which player (Lee or Lewis) is better at which position (2B or 3B).  It doesn't really matter.  I'll let the Twins' decide that.  But if the premise of one of them being the 2024 2B, I think it's time to trade Polanco.  Martin, Julien, and Severino all can provide backup to whomever is the starter and Polanco (along with someone in the 2B pipeline) could become trade assets for either a starting pitcher or a solid, RH corner outfielder.  Either Martin or Lewis could backup Buxton (or be the regular CF).  Below is a 25-man roster for 2024 that I would like to see.  It is NOT an A) "unquestionably best" lineup, or B) an "I'll give up on Twins if they don't do this" lineup, or C) or any other commonly used declarative sentence attempting to transform an opinion into a fact.  It's just me daydreaming.

C  Jeffers

C  Camargo

1B Kirilloff

2B Julien

SS Correa

3B Lee

LF New brought in by trading Polanco

CF Lewis

RF Kepler

DH Buxton

Bench

Wallner

Castro

Severino

Larnach

SP1 Lopez

SP2 Paddock

SP3 Ryan

SP4 Ober

SP5 Gray/Maeda/someone via free agency or trade

RP Duran

RP Jax

RP Stewart

RP Varland

RP Alcala

RP Funderburk

RP Canterino

That's a payroll of about $90M plus whatever is spent for a new LF and SP5.  And it leaves about $60M for the new LF or SP5.  Should be able to buy or trade for decent players and have plenty left over for extensions for young guys.

I am not ready to have Buxton at DH full time.  I prefer Julien, Solano, or Wallner (if he is not in the OF).

[Paul Walerius]

On 10/28/2023 at 9:02 AM, mikelink45 said:

I have less faith in Martin than the article or the commentators express.  I still prefer to have Taylor out there.  

We are accumulating so much infield talent that we have to figure out trades to clear the path.  Just think what we would have if Steer and Encarnion-Strand were still with us.  Of course that also brings up the thought that we need to be careful about who we expend prospect talent on. 

I think that there are a few more players that could be added to this list.  I do hope we have a pitcher or two that can be better than the Headrick/Winder/Sands trio. 

Headrick was a rookie so I will give hime a pass.   Going into last year I had the same feelings about Sands but he ended up (after IL stint) with 3.74 ERA.   Before the injury I believe it was under 2.   Strikeouts could come up /9 a little but fairly good numbers.  Winder is the only one I am not high on for now.   Seems like he is a long reliever type that will give up a lot of runs (over 4 era)

[roger]

Interesting topic.

Had Larnach, Miranda and AK coming up a couple years ago.  Julien, Waller and Lewis this year.  Now Lee, Severino and Martin are on the horizon for next year.

The first trio had lots of early success, then injuries took over with only AK doing anything last year.  And his year was derailed by his new problem, although its great news that the lingering wrist problem appears to be behind him.  Before we get too far into dreaming about the three in this article, what is the future for this older trio?  Each is capable of being big time, will they?  Heck, will any one of them reach his portential?

Then there is this past year's crop.  If he limits his time on the IL to 10 or 20 games a year, sure looks like Lewis is a star.  Perhaps MVP type of talent.  Others will certainly disagree, but I want the Twins to ink this young man into third base in their lineup for the next ten plus years.  Have more questions about both Julien and Wallner.  One thing that may help Julien is if baseball does anything about eliminating umpire mistakes at calling balls strikes.  This kid may have fine tuned his eye to the point that some/many of his strikeouts should ahve been walks.  What do his numbers look like if, say, 10 of his K's are walks?  Or 15?  I see some negativity above about his D.  Yes, it was a problem when he came up.  But everything I read in the Strib, and elsewhere, indicates that he worked hard and it did improve over the summer.  Personally, I have more questions about Wallner.  Like Julien, I thought his defense improved after a few really ugly games earlier this year.  But it wasn't great, although he does have a cannon for an arm.  And his strikeouts were a problem.  Can he fix that?  If not, do the Twins really need another Gallo?

As I look at the trio Cody is talking about, the first problem I see is that both Severino and Lee are infielders.  Looking at the six who are already here, four of them play some mix of first, second and third base.  Yes, Martin is probably being moved to center field, a position of potential need.  But the others are faced with a lot of competition with Correa owning short.  We will know what the Twins are thinking about Polonco in the next ten days when they need to either exercise his option or cut bait.  Assuming they do exercise, there are a lot of guys fot next year's trio to pass for an opportunity to play in the Twins infield.

[darin617]

On 10/28/2023 at 8:16 AM, rv78 said:

Trade Polanco for pitching. Insert Lee. Delegate Buxton to the bench, he's only a part-time player anyway. Insert Martin. Say goodbye to Solano. Insert Severino. A 3 way win, win, win. The youth movement continues and the team gets better.

The only plus I see in Martin over Keirsey is that he bats from the right side.

Solano was one of the better hitters for the Twins in 2023. With the mess at 1st base where would the Twins have been without him in 2023. Severino would be nice to see for sure. Would like to see that power in Target Field. He just needs to work more at 1st base and cut down the strike outs.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Assuming they do exercise, there are a lot of guys fot next year's trio to pass for an opportunity to play in the Twins infield.

We should assume that Polanco has his option picked up. Both Kepler and Polanco would jump to the head of all free agent position players if their options were declined. Can anyone think of any reason not to pick up their very affordable options. The only reason this could happen is if the roster budget is going to be close to $100 million. 

There will be a full pile of guys looking for MLB jobs at second base, so there is a chance to make a trade or two. That makes sense. It also makes sense to listen to what other teams want and keep the lines of communication open.

[darin617]

On 10/28/2023 at 8:44 AM, specialiststeve said:

Really believe that buying out Polanco and Max is a likely scenario given it would save about 18 million and we could use that money to work on one more starter and given we have ready-made replacements that are comparable other than experience. 

That given the case...

Do believe that Royce is WAY better suited to 3rd than Lee given his body makeup. I Think that Lee would be an all star at 2nd and fits perfectly there. 

Martin is a bit tougher. His inconsistent plate performance lends me to think he will start in AAA and come up as a utility guy. 

Severino needs to work on his SO's.. way too high but his production is very good. Would believe they would protect him on the 40 man... nice insurance for a DH type guy. 

All in all .. think we will see Lee starting at 2B early next year.. 

 

No chance either player gets bought out. Both players have trade value and their contracts aren't that big so the Twins should be able to get some prospects in return for them.

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, Linus said:

Well we are not going to agree on that one. 

I've got data. From the 1970s to the 2000s (a span of 40 seasons) CF and 3B have basically the same OPS+.

3-D Baseball: OPS by Position and Decade

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, roger said:

Personally, I have more questions about Wallner.  Like Julien, I thought his defense improved after a few really ugly games earlier this year.  But it wasn't great, although he does have a cannon for an arm.  And his strikeouts were a problem.  Can he fix that?  If not, do the Twins really need another Gallo?

Wallner can actually hit an off-speed pitch. Gallo can't anymore.