I am fine being told I am an idiot but is Kenta Maeda worthy of a QO?

[Dman]

16 hours ago, ashbury said:

And IMO that lower draft pick changes the risk/reward ratio.  You're gambling the same $20+M on a pitcher, and the reward if he turns down the QO is lower, and he's probably a lesser pitcher than most who get the QO.  It's an easy decision when you want the player to accept your QO; it's a lot harder when you're hoping he turns it down and you get something of whatever value for free, but he might accept.  Overpay Maeda by several million, or get somewhere around the 100th draft pick? Unsure.  If you actually want him, offer him a little less and see what he says.  But all in all, a QO is at least in the realm of possibility.

By the way, to the OP of this thread: Your a idot.  There, I've been wanting to use that gem I found on Facebook for a long time now. 

Very good analysis and it is spot on IMO.  As others have noted if he accepts the QO then the offseason adds are likely done for the season.  Given the budget they might also need to get rid of Polanco\Kepler and or Farmer just to make room for the money involved.  

My main thought was if he accepts it helps with the rotation for one more year at an overpay of possibly 6M depending on how you value him.  If he declines as you noted at least the Twins get something of value which is an extra draft pick and or extra money to spread around in the draft.  As you noted Maeda getting a contract over 50M is very low given his age and production so he is not going to bring back a low 1st round pick. With the Twins being cap strapped probably not going happen as the risk reward is too great.

Appreciate your insight.  I felt it really got to the crux of the issue.

[LonelyseatinMOA]

I don't see why not, he pitched pretty good and it ain't my money 

[Dman]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised with Maeda getting something in the 2/30-35 range without a pick attached to him, but I don't think he'd take the risk coming off an injury shortened season where he got moved to the pen and barely used in the playoffs. He's also a different style pitcher than Eovaldi, and with his low velo his margin for error is much smaller so I think he'll have a harder time finding multiple years. I think he'd jump at the QO, and I don't think the Twins want to pay him that much for 1 year. 

I think Eovaldi is seen as a legit option to start playoff games while I don't think Maeda is. I think that's what would change the markets.

I think that is a good point.  He never seems to get used as a top of the rotation arm. Come playoff time he tends to get bumped to the pen so that could offset his perceived value and I agree Eovaldi looks better for that role than Maeda.  For 20M you would like to get a bit more than Maeda I get that, but if you only want a one year deal you generally have to give more AAV and I don't think the Twins want\need Maeda for more than one more year.  Just need a bridge to Raya, Festa, Lewis and hopefully more arms after that.

As noted by many it doesn't feel like the Twins have the money to spare if he accepts the QO.  So my whole premise is likely moot.  Thanks for the great feedback!

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

I think that is a good point.  He never seems to get used as a top of the rotation arm. Come playoff time he tends to get bumped to the pen so that could offset his perceived value and I agree Eovaldi looks better for that role than Maeda.  For 20M you would like to get a bit more than Maeda I get that, but if you only want a one year deal you generally have to give more AAV and I don't think the Twins want\need for more than one more year.  Just need a bridge to Raya, Festa, Lewis and hopefully more arms after that.

As noted by many it doesn't feel like the Twins have the money to spare if he accepts the QO.  So my whole premise is likely moot.  Thanks for the great feedback!

I think even leaving the money completely out of it I'd like to shoot higher than Maeda. I like him, and think that was a win of a trade for the Twins. I'd be super happy with him as a 4th/5th starter if I thought we had 3 sure fire playoff starters ahead of him. I know many will disagree, but I don't think we have 3 sure fire playoff starters right now. I think Lopez is clearly one, but Ryan, Ober, and Paddack all have real question marks for me. I'd like to shoot for someone I have more certainty slotting in next to Lopez. 

I won't be upset if they bring Maeda back. I think it's a very reasonable thing to do. But when you have 4 rotation spots locked up, and your 6th guy in AAA likely locked up, I think the goal should be to shoot as high as you can when filling that last spot, and I just wouldn't lock Maeda into that spot early in the offseason. There's always some maneuvering you can do if you lock him up and another option presents itself, but I'd prefer to get a better lay of the land, especially before dropping 20+M on my last rotation spot.

Good convo in this thread, though. Nice topic, and it'll be interesting to see what the Twins do to fill that last spot.

[sun]

Maeda set the Twins club record by recording 8 K's in a row against the Brewers when he took a no hitter into the 9th.  I also remember a game when Maeda was a pinch hitter & successfully made a sacrifice bunt.

 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I may be wrong, but I think for the Twins to get a draft pick he would need to sign a contract for 50M or more. I doubt he gets that so I'd have to say no. Offer him 12-15M and see what he says.

$12-$15M seems to be a fair range & fairly competitive. 2 years……..more than that doesn’t make sense since he’ll be 36 (with rebuilt/fresh arm) and brings some risk!

[Beast]

He may be “worth it” in terms of the analytics used to determine a players value.  That’s in a vacuum.

The Twins aren’t going to be spending a ton of money.  I’d prefer to see those resources allocated elsewhere.

For example, maybe somebody who can hit a little, so we’re not pinch hitting with Willy Castro with the bases loaded in the playoffs.

Maybe somebody that can be used in a relief role the in the playoffs outside of 2 blowout losses, and do that while performing a bit better than 3 ERs over 4 innings with a negative WPA.

There seems to be this belief that our bullpen was nails in the playoffs.  Duran, Jax, Pagan, and Paddack were great.  Stewart was good outside of the bomb to Alvarez.  Everyone else stunk pretty badly.  I’d rather not rely on Pagan in high leverage roles going forward and Paddack is going to want to start.  That leaves 3 bullpen arms that have proven they can shut down good hitters in the playoffs going forward, assuming they are healthy.

Duran’s health scares me, a human body can only throw 104 for so long - we saw him crack a bit down the stretch.  Stewart hardly pitched.  Jax is a freaking roller coaster ride.  I’d feel a lot better adding one, stable, fairly high impact arm to the back of that bullpen and let Maeda walk.

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, clone52 said:

I think it depends.  The twins wouldn't really be gambling $21m for a 2nd round pick.  Let's say the offer him a 1 year deal for $15m and he turns it down, a QO is only risking $6M.

Excellent point.

It's still qualitatively different than for a pitcher they value more highly, say one they would gladly offer $25M for a year's work (given that quality pitchers get multi year offers). Then the QO is a no brainer.

Kenta Maeda is a brainer. 🙂 Depends on what value they assign to the draft pick.

[farmerguychris]

Why would you offer him $20 with the QA, when you probably wouldn't offer him that same amount as a FA?  He's fine, but his velocity continues to drop.  He deserves to get paid after the last incentive laden contract he signed.  I just don't think he's a candidate for that kind of money - more so in the 12-15M range at his age.  He's a number 4-5 guy at this point.  

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The QO, being he’s certain to accept it, has to be tendered by 5 days after the WS, is not a fall back, it’s plan A. Also, 20M might be the total free agent budget this offseason

christmas shopping done by 11/9 and you can only afford one present.

I'm only offering it if I feel like he would reject it. I think it's 50/50 he declines, the team will have a much better idea.

Pitching is expensive and he's never been a free agent. It's not as cut and dried as it seems.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Why would you offer him $20 with the QA, when you probably wouldn't offer him that same amount as a FA?  He's fine, but his velocity continues to drop.  He deserves to get paid after the last incentive laden contract he signed.  I just don't think he's a candidate for that kind of money - more so in the 12-15M range at his age.  He's a number 4-5 guy at this point.  

You would mainly only offer him the QO if you only wanted him for one more year otherwise you are correct the Twins could try a two or three year deal and see if he takes it but once you are into Free Agency there is no guarantee the Twins will be the highest bidder and you could lose him for nothing. If you give him the QO and he doesn't take it then the Twins can still negotiate a multi year contract and if he leaves they at least get draft pick compensation. If he takes the QO you have overpaid but you have Maeda for at least one more year and don't have to worry about losing him or filling that spot.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not crazy at all.  I have always thought Maeda back was a strong possibility.

I wouldn't go QO, I would go 2/$30 with a 3rd yr team option.  He has been really good in Minnesota, could be strong as a SP or RP.

[AWOLNATION_11]

I'd offer it and gladly take him back if he accepts.  I understand everyone wants to shoot for better and/or open up a spot for a youngster, but you need pitching depth and I don't know which free agents better than Maeda the Twins can legitimately get to sign here.  Probably not getting the top guys, so the Twins are likely looking at guys that will perform similar to how Maeda will in 2024, but they'd need to go multiple years to get the other guys.  Take Maeda for 1 year at a bit of an overpay and see how your staff and the free agent landscape looks next offseason.  Also, I think if Maeda went to the free agent market saying he's looking to max out his earnings for 1 season only.  I think a lot of teams would make 1 year offers approaching $20 million, so is it really that much of an overpay?

[RpR]

I hope he comes back and what his pay is, is of Zero concern to me.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

But, from a flexibility perspective, which this FO and I love, the QO would give them a nice buffer time frame with which to sort that out.  If they just sign Kenta, that's money straight out of the free agent budget.  Failing the bigger free agents, hes a good fallback.

This is assuming that they wont offer it without being relatively certain he will reject.  I think he wants to see free agency as bad as Gray.

I agree that he is a good fall-back position.  However, the QO would have to be made before they could sort out the other options.  So, should they gamble on landing someone better or make the QO knowing that if he accepts that will be all they can do for starting pitching.  I guess you could frame that as Paddack is replacing Gray and everything else remains the same.  It's a reasonable move given how hard it is to sign one of the 2 or 3 guys that are reasonable targets but I sure would like to have an upgrade.

I agree with Jocko it's a 50/50 chance he accepts.  If someone offers him 2/30 that is probably more appealing to Maeda.  Obviously, the Twins could then match the 2/30 if they want him for a couple a years.

[old nurse]

I don’t think given the entirety of his career, age 35, that offers for Maeda as anything more than a back of rotation starter will be there. 21 million is a good number for him, for a 2 year contract. 

[Aerodeliria]

I believe Maeda will be much better (stronger) in 2024 simply because he has had one more year to get his arm stronger. TJ surgery is awfully tough on the arm--many never fully recover, but it appears that Maeda is recovering just fine, but had he returned to the pre-injury form entirely? I doubt it--not completely. At times, he seemed arm weary. I'd like to see one more year of Maeda with a Twins uniform if things work out. I think a little side-bar negotiating would be a good thing. I think you'd be hard-pressed to get a starter of Maeda's potential quality for a similar payday on the open market or in a trade unless you just get extremely lucky. (And, yes, I am also selfish, but that's still my honest opinion.)

[wabene]

On 10/27/2023 at 8:04 AM, Trov said:

I would not say it is crazy, except for you would be paying him more than Lopez next year, and what you are paying Lopez the remaining 3 years of his deal, and Maeda is no where near worth Lopez.  However, if you want him back the QO should get it done as I would expect he would accept it. If you are concerned he would sign somewhere else and willing a little overpay do it.

If Lopez performs like he did this year, he is seriously under paid. Hopefully the front office doesn't think every deal has to be such a steal because then they might not get anything done. 

[wabene]

23 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

 I know many will disagree, but I don't think we have 3 sure fire playoff starters right now. I think Lopez is clearly one, but Ryan, Ober, and Paddack all have real question marks for me. I'd like to shoot for someone I have more certainty slotting in next to Lopez

I agree with this. Out of Ryan, Ober and Paddack, odds are real good at least one of them steps up and fills the 2nd or 3rd playoff starter role. Counting on 2 of them could cost you. As much as I've liked Maeda and as well as he did pitch as a playoff starter for us in 2020 (5 shutout innings with 5 K's), at his age, if you want to take the next step do you want to count on him? Also, I only want to push Louie to AAA if the pitcher doing the pushing is a front line playoff starter type. Louie will still get his chance starting due to injuries which is very important. Starting pitchers are the most important asset and I'm not moving Louie to the pen until I get a real good look at him starting. 

[Karbo]

I would say no to offering a QO. The rotation for next year as is looks like Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober and Varland. Not bad but room for improvement. They will try to work out a deal for Gray but not real hopeful on that as Gray will be one of the most sought after pitchers on the FA market. I would probably offer Maeda maybe 2 years at 35 mil with an option year, and throw in some sort of incentives that could earn him an additional 2-3 mil with a really good year. Let him bet on himself and see how it develops.

[weitz41]

I could see it making sense. I'm on the fence about it though. Assuming good health, a TV contract being worked out and picking up Kepler and Polanco's options there's 33.5 mil in payroll less than 2023. With Solano, Taylor and Gallo's spots being filled by players already on or soon be on the 40-man roster. Alot less risk in a 1 year 20.5 mil contract then a 3+ year with someone else. I'm also not convinced they will push hard to resign Gray, so I think a QO to Maeda isn't out of the realm of possibilities or a silly idea.

[sun]

I'm not as concerned about playoff performance but rather regular season performance to make it to the payoffs. Gray didn't do too well in the playoffs either but the Twins should still make the QO to him. The money is only for one year There still needs to be depth & the team will still need 6 or 7 starters to get through the season. Don't worry about playoff performance until after they win the Central. Bats can win the playoffs as well as pitching & the team will need both. The costs are always going to escalate but so does TV & merchandise money.  The Twins are making money on their new uniforms. Don't sweat over the details. Remeber that there's always the possibility of a trade at the trade deadline.from a team that's selling. That makes keeping the ptichers that that we have worth it.

[tony&rodney]

Good conversation and well argued points in this post. I'm a little surprised that so many folks see Maeda worthy of a QO.

Maeda pitched wonderfully for the Twins and still has some value left in his arm. I'm of the belief that Kenta deserves our respect and thanks for a job well done. The Twins need to look around for someone who can step into Sonny Gray's position in the rotation though. It will be interesting to see if Maeda gets a multi-year contract for $10 million per. I wish him all the best.