The Twins' 12 Biggest Offseason Questions (& Their Answers) - Part 1

[John Bonnes]

Twins Daily always goes the extra mile, so after participating in Friday's media scrum with Twins' President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli, we went to an even higher authority: the Magic 8-Ball. When their answers all matched, we had the verification we needed. Here, then, are the twelve biggest questions of the upcoming offseason – and their answers.

Question 1: What will Byron Buxton 's role be next year?
Magic 8-Ball: Concentrate and ask again
We discovered yesterday that Buxton is undergoing an additional knee surgery, but this one is arthroscopic, which is important because it is less invasive and has a faster recovery. To summarize the situation at a high level: this year, Buxton has been suffering from chronic patellar tendonitis, which means part of his right knee is getting irritated, which causes swelling, which causes pain. They will remove some of the part (the plica) that doctors think is causing that irritation.

And then? Per Falvey, the goal is the same as it was entering this year: get him back to running around centerfield, this time without a swollen knee. "Our hope and our expectation and our goal is to get him ready to play center field. That's his focus. That's what he wants, and that's what we all want," said Falvey

Is that realistic? Some of that will depend on what the surgeon finds when he goes into the knee for the procedure, which should provide more information than imaging. The good and bad news is that this is an iterative process: they fix what is causing the existing problem and then see how the knee reacts - and if it reveals a new issue. "I would let the procedure take place. We have to see what the doctors say," reflected Baldelli.

Question 2: So, will Royce Lewis play centerfield instead?
Magic 8-Ball: My sources say no
Baldelli was pretty emphatic on Lewis remaining an infielder next year. "I consider Royce, going into the offseason and next spring training, getting ready to play third base," he said. Falvey agreed with him, though he cautioned that injuries can affect the best of plans.

Question 3: So, who will play centerfield?
Magic 8-Ball: Reply hazy, try again
It's safe to say the Twins won't go out and acquire an everyday starting centerfielder this offseason, simply because there are already too many internal candidates: Buxton, Willi Castro, and prospect Austin Martin are atop the list. Could they bring back Michael A. Taylor or another veteran to help insure the spot? To that, the magic 8-ball says, "You may rely on it."

Question 4: Will Sonny Gray return?
Magic 8-Ball: Very doubtful
While it appears to be a lovefest all around, there is also the reality that the business of baseball will likely mean the Twins and Gray will go their separate ways. The Twins didn't say they will give Gray a qualifying offer, but they will. Gray hasn't said he will turn it down, but he will, as he'll be one of the most pursued starting pitchers on the free-agent market. Can they get a deal done before all that? It is very rare for a desirable free agent, who has waited (and thrived) for 13 years in professional baseball, to give up the opportunity to test his market two weeks before it becomes a reality.

Question 5: Will the Twins add a big bat in the offseason?
Magic 8-Ball: Don't count on it
The Twins haven't been afraid to go big-game hunting in the offseason, whether by signing free agents (Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa twice) or trades (Gray, Pablo Lopez ). But three key factors lead me to think they won't.

First, they want to see what happens with Alex Kirilloff . It was revealed yesterday that Kirilloff will undergo surgery on a shoulder labrum tear, and like Buxton, what the surgeon finds may impact the next course of action. Kirilloff's 117 OPS+ last year - even while returning from a wrist injury and battling this new shoulder injury - reminded everyone how good he could be. Especially compared to….

It's a weak free-agent market for power right-handed first basemen. There are some premium names, like Rhys Hoskins, but otherwise, there are a lot of veterans who either don't look a lot better than Kirilloff or can't play first base. And the Twins want to keep the designated hitter spot available for Buxton and other players who want to find playing time in a crowded lineup, such as 23-year-old Edouard Julien .

Third, a bigger (and more traditional) question has raised its ugly head…

Question 6: What will the Twins' payroll situation be next year?
Magic 8-Ball: Better not tell you now
The Twins' TV deal with Bally Sports North expires this year, and the situation is a mess. Those TV rights were worth $54.8 million to the Twins in 2023. With that revenue in question, the Twins' 2023 Opening Day payroll of approximately $154M (per Cot's) could be in jeopardy. Officially, Falvey replied, "I would just say we haven't really had that dialogue yet." But he sounded less optimistic than last year about any increase in payroll and talked about how some of the younger players will be making less than the guys they're replacing. So, officially, we don't know, but the potential of a lower payroll is certainly not off the table.

And that's a problem because the default payroll already eats a lot of that money. If the Twins bring back their team as is (without free agents) and with reasonable decisions made in arbitration, their payroll is already near $124 million. There isn't much room to add an expensive free agent - unless they start to trade away some veterans.

However, the Twins' crowded roster presents some possibilities there, so let's look at some candidates, tomorrow in Part 2.

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[The Mad King]

My approach would be build a roster as if BB does not exist. Anything you get out of him is a bonus. 

And I'm not ready to bank on Royce until he can stay healthy for a full season. I wish this more than anything ...

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

It will be interesting to see how the Twins approach the infield logjam, with Royce Lewis staying put at third. Given AK's injury history, Julien could move to 1B/DH, and Brooks Lee could be the everyday 2B. AK's bat will play better at LF/RF (if he's healthy), and Lee can play everyday at 2B, giving him a chance to give the Twins a 1st rounder.

Centerfield is not as big of a issue as it's being made out to be. Gordon and Castro are just fine there, and Celestino/Martin are fine depth. Maybe the bring MAT back, or they could go after Bellinger, but I still believe in Nick Gordon as an everyday CF.

 

 

[GM64]

Can you give us the roster that led you to say a $124M payroll? I was penciling that out just earlier today, and I came up about 6 million less. I realize that’s fairly close as things go, but at the same time there’s very little uncertainty in the pay of players now on the roster. The vast majority are either under contract for a set pay, or are pre-arbitration at a fixed base salary. So I’m thinking I must be making some significant miscalculations regarding what the arbitration eligible players will get.

[mickster]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

It will be interesting to see how the Twins approach the infield logjam, with Royce Lewis staying put at third. Given AK's injury history, Julien could move to 1B/DH, and Brooks Lee could be the everyday 2B. AK's bat will play better at LF/RF (if he's healthy), and Lee can play everyday at 2B, giving him a chance to give the Twins a 1st rounder.

Centerfield is not as big of a issue as it's being made out to be. Gordon and Castro are just fine there, and Celestino/Martin are fine depth. Maybe the bring MAT back, or they could go after Bellinger, but I still believe in Nick Gordon as an everyday CF.

 

 

Nick Gordon replacing anyone on the regular season roster is a downgrade

[rv78]

I would say the biggest question is..... Are they going to get different hitting coaches or change their approach to hitting? If not, then it won't matter who plays where. Strikeouts in the lineup can come from any player regardless of which position they play. They've already proven that. Start with fixing the elephant in the room.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

1 minute ago, mickster said:

Nick Gordon replacing anyone on the regular season roster is a downgrade

Nick Gordon had a 111 wRC+ in '22 while playing slightly below-average defense in the outfield. Willi Castro had a 109 wRC+ in '23 while also playing slightly below-average outfield defense. Castro does have more base-stealing speed, but other than that, they are basically the same player.

I would much rather have Gordon than Larnach, Gallo, Luplow, Stevenson, or Garlick on the active roster, and the fact that you think he is a downgrade over all five of those guys is concerning.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If Royce stays at 3b then I think that they start with Miranda at 1b and then when Kirilloff comes back they have a right/lefty platoon.  I hope Miranda can once again find himself when he is healthy.  I think we need to give him every opportunity to do that.

Considering the magic 8 ball is saying all the things I would say, I will put out there that Miranda will be working in the outfield in spring training next year.  The fit is just too good, and he doesn't really have to be good on defense.

[Mike Sixel]

If they won't even consider Royce anywhere but third, where do they plan to play Lee? Because they should have him paying his future position, not one he'll rarely if ever play ... Please, play him where you want him in the majors.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

It will be interesting to see how the Twins approach the infield logjam, with Royce Lewis staying put at third. Given AK's injury history, Julien could move to 1B/DH, and Brooks Lee could be the everyday 2B. AK's bat will play better at LF/RF (if he's healthy), and Lee can play everyday at 2B, giving him a chance to give the Twins a 1st rounder.

Centerfield is not as big of a issue as it's being made out to be. Gordon and Castro are just fine there, and Celestino/Martin are fine depth. Maybe the bring MAT back, or they could go after Bellinger, but I still believe in Nick Gordon as an everyday CF.

 

 

There’s a helluva cavern between Nick Gordon and Bellinger, nearly $30M……..,,side note, Celestino will never were a home uniform in Minneapolis again.

Can’t imagine not bringing Taylor back for $5M range - if Buxton is healthy and Gordon & Castro are creating a log jam in CF at the end of Spring Training somebody gets traded. If Martin has a nice Spring then he becomes a LF & CF option on the big club.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Nick Gordon replacing anyone on the regular season roster is a downgrade

That's what people would have said this year about Willi Castro or Donovan Solano too. 

Gordon's 2022 was equivalent to Castro's 2023... I would say that Castro is a little better defensively. 

[JD-TWINS]

29 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Considering the magic 8 ball is saying all the things I would say, I will put out there that Miranda will be working in the outfield in spring training next year.  The fit is just too good, and he doesn't really have to be good on defense.

Sorry this is so harsh, but I mentioned in another post, that Celestino won’t ever wear a home uniform again in Minneapolis - gotta say I feel the same way about Miranda.

Miranda can’t play the position he was groomed to play at 3B. Moving him to OF is a worthwhile experiment I guess. Don’t see him catching up to nor surpassing any of our existing outfield options.

Defensively, in the Twins organization, he’s behind Julien and that’s not a good thing.

He can’t hit. Celestino can’t hit. Larnach looks way better with way more upside at the plate and he can stay on big club because he can’t hit well enough. I realize guys can improve but the window is open for a brief time, particularly on a team that is trying to get to a World Series now, not in 4-5 years.

Miranda’s issues may be linked to injury way more than has been communicated or broadcast - hope so, then he may have a chance to bounce back!

[Seth Stohs]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they won't even consider Royce anywhere but third, where do they plan to play Lee? Because they should have him paying his future position, not one he'll rarely if ever play ... Please, play him where you want him in the majors.

And where is that, or where should that be? 

Lewis is likely the better 3B. Correa's not moving off of short. Polanco should play 2B. Julien and Miranda can platoon at 1B. Lee could come up right now and play any of those four spots. 

Any of those players could miss time with injury and Lee would be ready to take their spot. 

Martin can play LF, CF, 2B. Larnach and Wallner can play the corners. 

And, it'll all paly out over the next 4 1/2 months. And depth is good. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If Royce stays at 3b then I think that they start with Miranda at 1b and then when Kirilloff comes back they have a right/lefty platoon.

Is Miranda even in the picture any more? He seems to be the odd man out in an infield crowded with talent.

[JD-TWINS]

Sonny Gray re-signed for $25-26M/year is a fair deal at 34 years old. Couple years with Team option for a 3rd?

Watching Jordan Montgomery pitch for Rangers for 3rd time in playoffs this year…….they have $ tied up in deGrom  - $ tied up in Eovaldi - $ tied up in Heany - $ tied up in Scherzer.

Montgomery is a free-agent. $25M to a lefty with fresh playoff experience for 2-3 years could be a nice replacement for Mr. Gray???

The $ would come from Gray’s plus Mahle’s combined ‘23 salary. Interesting thought!

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

And where is that, or where should that be? 

Lewis is likely the better 3B. Correa's not moving off of short. Polanco should play 2B. Julien and Miranda can platoon at 1B. Lee could come up right now and play any of those four spots. 

Any of those players could miss time with injury and Lee would be ready to take their spot. 

Martin can play LF, CF, 2B. Larnach and Wallner can play the corners. 

And, it'll all paly out over the next 4 1/2 months. And depth is good. 

I have no idea what sime of that post  has to do with Lee.... All I'm asking is that they play him where they want him playing, not at short because he can always move. Because they don't want him at short any time soon.

[Mike Sixel]

55 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Is Miranda even in the picture any more? He seems to be the odd man out in an infield crowded with talent.

How? He was hurt. He can play first and third. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How? He [Miranda] was hurt. He can play first and third. 

Yes, but so can several other players.  Where does he rank among them?

[Mark G]

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

And where is that, or where should that be? 

Lewis is likely the better 3B. Correa's not moving off of short. Polanco should play 2B. Julien and Miranda can platoon at 1B. Lee could come up right now and play any of those four spots. 

Any of those players could miss time with injury and Lee would be ready to take their spot. 

Martin can play LF, CF, 2B. Larnach and Wallner can play the corners. 

And, it'll all paly out over the next 4 1/2 months. And depth is good. 

I have to go with Mike on this one.  Lee is still learning his craft, and it would be best to learn the position he will play the most in the big leagues.  The concept that he could play any of the 4 positions if needed, doesn't mean he should; I would submit that is what our utility players are for, and I do not want to cast him as a utility player.  It is better served for the big club, and Lee himself, to find the position he is best suited for and play him there.  He is still a little ways away from the majors, and time will tell if anyone currently in his way will still be when he is ready.  

I don't want to stray too far from the subject, but growing up, and learning the game, I learned there were regulars, platoon players, and utility players.  Unless that has changed dramatically (I hope not, and don't think so), I don't see Lee as anything but a regular when his time comes.  Figure out his position and let him rip!

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

And where is that, or where should that be? 

Lewis is likely the better 3B. Correa's not moving off of short. Polanco should play 2B. Julien and Miranda can platoon at 1B. Lee could come up right now and play any of those four spots. 

Any of those players could miss time with injury and Lee would be ready to take their spot. 

Martin can play LF, CF, 2B. Larnach and Wallner can play the corners. 

And, it'll all paly out over the next 4 1/2 months. And depth is good. 

IDK why so many people want to move Julien to 1B given his improvement at 2B.  Moving him to 1B diminishes his value.  It makes more sense to trade Polanco.  He has trade value so we get something in return plus we have $10M to spend elsewhere and payroll is probably going to be squeezed this year.

Each team's player most likely to be traded

Is there a free agent or trade that can be made for a RH hitting guy that could play corner OF and 1B?   I like this better than a patch job at 1B for a one year or half a year when Julien has been improving quite a bit a 2B.  The Polanco money would also be better spent on pitching.  They don't have much SP depth as it is and they just might put Varland in the BP.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Considering the magic 8 ball is saying all the things I would say, I will put out there that Miranda will be working in the outfield in spring training next year.  The fit is just too good, and he doesn't really have to be good on defense.

I honestly can't picture Miranda in the outfield. May not be as scary as when Miguel Sano played in right field, but still ... 

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

That's what people would have said this year about Willi Castro or Donovan Solano too. 

Gordon's 2022 was equivalent to Castro's 2023... I would say that Castro is a little better defensively. 

I'm probably in the minority here, but I hope Gordon can make the team next year. Of course, if we also have Castro and Larnach, and even a guy like Taylor coming back, then maybe that's not so likely.  Gordon is versatile, but I think mostly an outfielder at this point. I still think Gordon hasn't reached his full potential and the Twins should try and see what he can do for a full year while healthy. But we have a real logjam coming up, with in the infield  and outfield, with some of our better prospects knocking on the door. Who do we trade or jettison? 

[Major League Ready]

There is a 13th question that I think is quite pivotal.  Does Varland start or go to the BP?  If he goes to the pen, they have to sign a free agent SP.  (a case could be made they need to sign one even with Varland as a SP) They just don't have any guys knocking at the door so perhaps Varland is kept a starter even if they prefer to use him as a RP.  However, if they sign a starter that is something above a back of the rotation guy, the ripple effect could be Polanco and perhaps Farmer get traded.  Of course, we don't know how much the termination of the Bally contract will impact spending.  Anyone seen any articles on potential alternatives?

[2wins87]

17 hours ago, GM64 said:

Can you give us the roster that led you to say a $124M payroll? I was penciling that out just earlier today, and I came up about 6 million less. I realize that’s fairly close as things go, but at the same time there’s very little uncertainty in the pay of players now on the roster. The vast majority are either under contract for a set pay, or are pre-arbitration at a fixed base salary. So I’m thinking I must be making some significant miscalculations regarding what the arbitration eligible players will get.

I came out around $112 million myself, though without Farmer.  Add Farmer and my calculation would be about the same as yours.

[Nine of twelve]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I honestly can't picture Miranda in the outfield. May not be as scary as when Miguel Sano played in right field, but still ... 

The most important thing about playing left field in the major leagues is to be a good hitter. Defensively it's mainly just being able to catch fly balls and having an average arm.

[jmlease1]

It's a pretty good and fair list of questions so far. I assume in part 2 there will be some things about the rotation and the bullpen (as there almost always will be).

I tend not to worry about the concept of too many guys for some positions, like the Twins potentially have for the infield. These things do tend to sort themselves out in time, either through injury or ineffectiveness...or someone seizing the day and taking a position over through superior play. And while I'm as big a fan of Brooks Lee as anyone, he did not exactly crush AAA as a hitter, he's barely more than a full season in the minors as a pro player, and it would hardly be a sin if he starts next season in AAA with Royce Lewis starting at 3B in MLB.

I tend to think Bonnes is right that there won't be a big RH bat added to this squad, for all the reasons stated...but I do think the team also still likes Miranda and I'm also interested in how Severino might fit into this equation as well (he's a switch hitter but looked very solid hitting from the right side this season). I suspect Severino's future is at 1B and while I don't expect him to start the season with the Twins, I do think he's got interesting upside as a hitter and will be good depth in AAA.

[RpR]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea what sime of that post  has to do with Lee.... All I'm asking is that they play him where they want him playing, not at short because he can always move. Because they don't want him at short any time soon.

First he has to earn his way out of AAA.

[Jocko87]

28 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

The most important thing about playing left field in the major leagues is to be a good hitter. Defensively it's mainly just being able to catch fly balls and having an average arm.

Yup, I have no indications he will be any great shakes on defense but if he can hit like Schwarber you can live with Schwarbers defense. 

[Morland]

I expect that Polanco and Larnach will be traded. Hopefully for a good right handed hitter and some pitching. Lee should start in AAA and earn his way to the majors. It sounds like the Twins expect Paddack to be a starter next year. If both Grey and Maeda leave and they don't trade for a starter then Paddack and Varland will probably be the replacements. That means the likes of Winder/Festa/Dobnak/SWR are the backups. As we've seen this year, backup starters are needed. I don't think those four are good enough so that's why another pitcher is needed.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Morland said:

I expect that Polanco and Larnach will be traded. Hopefully for a good right handed hitter and some pitching. Lee should start in AAA and earn his way to the majors. It sounds like the Twins expect Paddack to be a starter next year. If both Grey and Maeda leave and they don't trade for a starter then Paddack and Varland will probably be the replacements. That means the likes of Winder/Festa/Dobnak/SWR are the backups. As we've seen this year, backup starters are needed. I don't think those four are good enough so that's why another pitcher is needed.

Lee has a long way to go to show he is capable of dealing with Major League pitching.