Twins and Astros

[Squirrel]

41 minutes ago, RocRedWing said:

sorry, should've clarified- no home evening game for game 3 is what I meant! hoping they give us game 4 at night. would love to see Duran's entrance at night again.

We'll have to wait until the next round ... and the round after that 🙂

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Ryan at home wouldn't be a bad thing.  In 6 innings he only gave up 3 hits and a walk, the problem was they were all in the same inning, with the last hit being a grand slam.

This is where I stand as well.  Save Ryan for game 4 at Target Field.  

Outside of Denver, I'm not certain there is a worse ballpark for Ryan to pitch in than Minute Maid.  It brutally punishes fly ball pitchers with that short left field fence.

And then, after we beat the Astros we can line Ryan up to start in the big ballpark at Camden Yard 😁

[Craig Arko]

Watch parties at Target Field.
 

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2023/10/05/twins-set-free-target-field-watch-parties-for-playoff-games-in-houston

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

And then, after we beat the Astros we can line Ryan up to start in the big ballpark at Camden Yard 😁

Unless the Rangers beat the O's ... 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

6 hours ago, Prince Phillip said:

I like going a Ryan/Maeda piggyback for game 1 in Houston. Keeps everyone on regular rest and plays to our strength of pitching depth. Four each from Joe and Kenta, plus a few more runs than we put up vs Jays would be a great start to the series.  

 

3 hours ago, laloesch said:

He's primarily a fastball pitcher and loses control of the situation quickly with the homeruns.  During the regular season against lesser opponents, it's fine, but in a critical series against a good team not so much.  And don't get me wrong I really do like Ryan's potential.  I think in a few seasons he will become a tremendous pitcher, he's already done a great deal but the over reliance on the fastball is what REALLY worries me against the Astros.  Maybe I'm overreacting a bit, and it will be okay, but game 1?  I don't know. 

 

Several signs would seem to point toward Ryan being the next up to start. I like Ryan too and am glad he'll be on this team for years to come - but if they're looking at a piggyback situation, could they start Maeda, for the reasons cited here? Start with the less homer-prone pitcher and adjust the pitching plan based on the game situation. If they have a lead in the middle innings, they can use Ryan with the homers being a bit less of a risk. If Maeda really cruises and can pitch into the fifth or sixth, they have the option to use a more conventional parade of relievers.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Save Ryan for game 4 at Target Field.  

Or this instead. Paddack or Ober could be the piggyback guy for a Maeda start, too.

[John Kelsey]

Astros confirmed Verlander game 1, Valdez game 2. 

[Shaitan]

Google is useless for local news. Will these be on Fox9/KMSP?

[laloesch]

2 minutes ago, John Kelsey said:

Astros confirmed Verlander game 1, Valdez game 2. 

yeah that's gonna be tough.

[Woof Bronzer]

8 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

1) They’ve now been away from the Denver altitude for a week (except Lewis and Correa) and will have fully readjusted to thicker air and to breaking pitches, and

This is absolutely not a thing.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

25 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

This is absolutely not a thing.  

In a series of articles on the Athletic by Al Melchior on “Diamond density notes” he describes the difference in Air Density Index (ADI) measured in different ballparks, and  the impact that changes in air density experienced by hitters, which he defines as “Visual Memory Index.”  He writes:

”The worst-case scenario for hitters is to move from a venue that had low ADIs to one with high ADIs, as it can take them two or three days to adjust their expectations of how much pitches are going to move.”

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

This is absolutely not a thing.  

All the data says it is absolutely a thing. Hitters are pitched to differently in Colorado because the ball moves differently. There is a well studied drop in production (below their normal away from Coors performance) the first couple games after a team leaves Coors and readjusts to sea level. Should the Twins use that as an excuse for scoring 5 runs in 2 games? Not really. But the leaving Coors Field effect is absolutely a thing.

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, Puckett34 said:

Some combo of Ryan/Maeda or Ober/Paddack is fine for me for games one and four.

I prefer Ober/Maeda and Ryan/Maeda. With Maeda going no more than 3 innings he can come back on three days rest.

[Puckett34]

19 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I prefer Ober/Maeda and Ryan/Maeda. With Maeda going no more than 3 innings he can come back on three days rest.

I was just thinking of pitchers that could be on the roster that can go multiple innings.  Agreed the preferred option is Maeda to piggyback either.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

Google is useless for local news. Will these be on Fox9/KMSP?

The MLB website shows Games 1 and 2 on FS1, Game 3 on FOX. Games 4 and 5 are TBD. College football and the NFL will be on FOX on Saturday and Sunday.

[cmoss84]

I took my crow out of the freezer to defrost. If we win this series, I will eat it 3 different ways. 

PS: Why don't they make new episodes of Iron Chef anymore? 

[mrtwinsfan]

13 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

They will also have homefield in the World Series if they face AZ.

Whoa  Folks---  lets at least get 1 in Houston,  Been waiting long time for our Hometown Nine,, ive been fortunate to see 2 games  in 1965 against the Dodgers as 9 -10 year old boys Riding bikes to the Old Met, 2 Games 1987 at the Dome and Watched 1991 game 7 with my 12 Year old son,  2010 sat 2nd row in the r.f. overhang,  I am as Exited as all of us ,  One at a time  , what a great Year lets keep it going !!!!!!!!!! Go Twins !

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, Road trip said:

This is where I stand as well.  Save Ryan for game 4 at Target Field.  

Outside of Denver, I'm not certain there is a worse ballpark for Ryan to pitch in than Minute Maid.  It brutally punishes fly ball pitchers with that short left field fence.

And then, after we beat the Astros we can line Ryan up to start in the big ballpark at Camden Yard 😁

I'd prefer Ober over Ryan for the game in Houston too. Ryan's propensity to give up home runs in parks like that might be a factor, plus Ober has looked so good recently. I'd push Ryan back to game 4 at home. 

[insagt1]

Astros are still the reigning Champs so taking them down would be great of course. They seem to ramp things up once they get to post season. (cheating or not cheating!)  But its time to clear them out. Won't be easy. Don't expect another 'gift' from the Astros (removing a solid starting pitcher after fewer than 50 pitches, and in complete control.)

Verlander is still pretty good, but he can be beaten. Twins hitters however have to make more contact overall to beat the Astros. They definitely can do it.

Naturally I want the O's to beat Texas. A Twins-O's ALCS would be a great series...two teams that haven't won it all in many years (with apologies to Texas who also fit that narrative) But its definitely time to kick Houston to the curb.

[wabene]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

All the data says it is absolutely a thing. Hitters are pitched to differently in Colorado because the ball moves differently. There is a well studied drop in production (below their normal away from Coors performance) the first couple games after a team leaves Coors and readjusts to sea level. Should the Twins use that as an excuse for scoring 5 runs in 2 games? Not really. But the leaving Coors Field effect is absolutely a thing.

 

I was hoping they would've left more of the key regulars behind, but in the end it has worked out. 

[Old Twins Cap]

A lot of analysts are missing a key factor:  RH pitching means the Twins will have to bat their lefties.  Guess what?  That's Wallner, Julien and Kiriloff.  I like those guys, don't get me wrong, and they are the reasons the Twins have made it into the playoffs.

But, when it comes to post-season baseball:  they have no experience and the odds of them feeling their nerves is high.  Kiriloff and Wallner especially.  Julien  seems to have ice-water in his veins; of course, he's from north of the border.

Anyway, this series will be determined by when, if and how the rookies respond in the bright spotlight of National TV and playoff baseball.  The longer the series, the longer the Twins' run in October, the less this matters.  But, against JV, I think they are going to have problems and such issues can compound greatly in a short, high-pressure series.

[gunnarthor]

I mean, Houston should win but we certainly have a good shot. Our pitching has been pretty good and Houston isn't the juggernaut they used to be. I like our young hitters a lot. Gun to my head, I think Houston wins this but I really wouldn't be surprised if we pulled this off. It's not a horrible match-up for us and I could see us winning a game like game 1 against Toronto - 3 runs on 2 homers being all the scoring.

[Linus]

21 hours ago, Road trip said:

This is where I stand as well.  Save Ryan for game 4 at Target Field.  

Outside of Denver, I'm not certain there is a worse ballpark for Ryan to pitch in than Minute Maid.  It brutally punishes fly ball pitchers with that short left field fence.

And then, after we beat the Astros we can line Ryan up to start in the big ballpark at Camden Yard 😁

 Completely agree with this. Ryan and that park could be a very bad combo. To the point where you are out of the game in one bad inning. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Old Twins Cap said:

A lot of analysts are missing a key factor:  RH pitching means the Twins will have to bat their lefties.  Guess what?  That's Wallner, Julien and Kiriloff.  I like those guys, don't get me wrong, and they are the reasons the Twins have made it into the playoffs.

But, when it comes to post-season baseball:  they have no experience and the odds of them feeling their nerves is high.  Kiriloff and Wallner especially.  Julien  seems to have ice-water in his veins; of course, he's from north of the border.

Anyway, this series will be determined by when, if and how the rookies respond in the bright spotlight of National TV and playoff baseball.  The longer the series, the longer the Twins' run in October, the less this matters.  But, against JV, I think they are going to have problems and such issues can compound greatly in a short, high-pressure series.

Kirilloff debuted in the postseason against the Astros (went 1-4) 3 years ago. If he's still feeling nerves so badly it makes him ineffective now it's not a great sign for Alex.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Old Twins Cap said:

But, when it comes to post-season baseball:  they have no experience and the odds of them feeling their nerves is high.  Kiriloff and Wallner especially.  Julien  seems to have ice-water in his veins; of course, he's from north of the border.

Lewis isn't from north of the border and seemed to do pretty good in the wild card series. And Kirilloff is no rookie when it comes to playing in the post season. As Correa said in an interview, the Twins have the same rookie/veteran mixture that Houston had in winning their World Series in 2015 (if I have the year correct). The Blue Jays seemed scared of Kirilloff and Wallner and took Berrios out just to get them on the bench. I think both will contribute in the Astros series at some point.

[Woof Bronzer]

23 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

All the data says it is absolutely a thing. Hitters are pitched to differently in Colorado because the ball moves differently. There is a well studied drop in production (below their normal away from Coors performance) the first couple games after a team leaves Coors and readjusts to sea level. Should the Twins use that as an excuse for scoring 5 runs in 2 games? Not really. But the leaving Coors Field effect is absolutely a thing.

Altitude affects about 40% of the population as a whole.  And the effects of altitude at 5000 feet are negligible - it's 8000+ where it starts to affect that 40% of the population (most of whom are not professional athletes).  Altitude effects are acute, not long lasting, so anyone affected by the altitude would not have lingering symptoms.   Professional athletes are the best conditioned people on the planet.  There is a ton of research on high altitude athletic performance - mountaineering in the Himalayas, skiing in the Alps, etc.  This is just silly.  

 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Altitude affects about 40% of the population as a whole.  And the effects of altitude at 5000 feet are negligible - it's 8000+ where it starts to affect that 40% of the population (most of whom are not professional athletes).  Altitude effects are acute, not long lasting, so anyone affected by the altitude would not have lingering symptoms.   Professional athletes are the best conditioned people on the planet.  There is a ton of research on high altitude athletic performance - mountaineering in the Himalayas, skiing in the Alps, etc.  This is just silly.  

 

Yeah, we're talking about hitting baseballs and the effect altitude has on that. Hitting at altitude is different than hitting at sea level. And it takes 1 to 2 games to get used to hitting at sea level again. Not because they're breathing different air or suffering physical effects of altitude, but because baseballs react differently at different altitudes, and that changes not only what a hitter expects a thrown ball to do, but also what strategy pitchers use because the balls they throw do different things. 

Nothing silly about that. Just cold hard facts of physics. 

[JDBrocks]

 

good stuff

[AlwaysinModeration]

19 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

 

good stuff

Great decision by the Twins on this.  You figured they were contemplating holding Ryan until Game 4 because the decision hadn’t been announced yet. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

52 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Professional athletes are the best conditioned people on the planet.  

 

For sure.