Will a dominate second half with a playoff series win make people feel better?

[cHawk]

Of course.

[jkcarew]

Well…yeah.

Winning a conceded and terrible division doesn’t mean much, but if they do it convincingly and follow it up with a series win…especially with contributions from an emerging new core…that would be a real step forward.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm curious, do people really think fans would complain if they lost two world series games, or is that snark?

I don't love how this FO seems unwilling to move on, see Gallo. They sent Julien down after polanco came back the first time. They refused to promote Wallner for months. It's like they don't trust their own system. Yet, the time guys are carrying this team, hitting wise. 

To answer the OP, of course they're back of they win a playoff series. And they should be. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

I’m pretty sure this is entirely supposition. I don’t remember ever seeing anything about a hard limit, and if there were, they (Twins FO) would certainly never publish it.

Thanks.  That is my thinking also.  But the supposition is always presented as a hard fact which is disingenuous at best.

[Craig Arko]

19 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Thanks.  That is my thinking also.  But the supposition is always presented as a hard fact which is disingenuous at best.

Many suppositions are. You just have to learn to ignore them.

[Major League Ready]

I would have to think any complaining in this scenario would be from a small minority.  Who's going to complain about a dominant 2nd half and a playoff series win, especially the way things looked 6 weeks ago?  Perhaps the better question would be would you prefer;

A) They dominate the rest of the way with returning players leading the way with a playoff series loss or

B) would you prefer they play 500 ball without substantial progress from the players that will be here next year but they win a playoff series?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

For the most part those that have been most vocal have been fairly quiet on this 5 game winning stretch because this winning stretch doesn't help their point of view. 

speaking for myself, I am just waiting for the postseason to start, but i will try to chime in for you during their next losing streak. 🙂

I cannot see what the front office’s vision for this team is, other than they are going all-in on winning a World Series these next couple seasons, starting last season actually. Their jobs shouldn’t be dependent on whether they win that first series this season. Pablo Lopez is a good piece, but was too costly. ditto Sonny Gray, it seems. Ryan and Ober are success stories. Duran and Jax are capable but don’t have much support. Let’s hope Duran just throws heat in the playoffs and doesn’t try to get too cute. Long term extensions for Paddack and Dobnak cannot be explained with logic. The pitching depth in this organization, after six years, is still very thin. It would be ironic, and sad, but not surprising if their pitching did them in in the playoffs this October, similar to how some of us wondered about the bullpen in 2019. Some of us like to play GM as part of being a fan, I guess. If the Twins win, then Twins Territory wins and we all win. Don’t confuse lifelong skepticism expressed on a message board with something other than what it is. We are all rooting!

[KirbyDome89]

Idk what defines a dominant August/September. The Twins have the easiest schedule in baseball, and it's gotten even easier with teams selling and/or collapsing in on themselves. Bankroll the Ws, you need them and they're certainly more enjoyable to watch, but I don't feel any better about this team in October. 

Does a WC series win feel better than a loss? Is that even a question? Hell, I'll feel better just breaking the damn losing streak. My opinion of the FO isn't going to radically shift if they win 2 of 3 at home though. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

speaking for myself, I am just waiting for the postseason to start, but i will try to chime in for you during their next losing streak. 🙂

I cannot see what the front office’s vision for this team is, other than they are going all-in on winning a World Series these next couple seasons, starting last season actually. Their jobs shouldn’t be dependent on whether they win that first series this season. Pablo Lopez is a good piece, but was too costly. ditto Sonny Gray, it seems. Ryan and Ober are success stories. Duran and Jax are capable but don’t have much support. Let’s hope Duran just throws heat in the playoffs and doesn’t try to get too cute. Long term extensions for Paddack and Dobnak cannot be explained with logic. The pitching depth in this organization, after six years, is still very thin. It would be ironic, and sad, but not surprising if their pitching did them in in the playoffs this October, similar to how some of us wondered about the bullpen in 2019. Some of us like to play GM as part of being a fan, I guess. If the Twins win, then Twins Territory wins and we all win. Don’t confuse lifelong skepticism expressed on a message board with something other than what it is. We are all rooting!

I see more of a long term approach that they are building that they have tried to supplement the short term teams by raiding their previous years drafts.   I just want to argue a couple of your claims

Pablo Lopez signed a long term contract has 2 more years of control and will likely be an ace.  I like Arraez but I think this years performance will be an outlier and we have have replaced Arraez with Julien.  That appears to have been a massive win.  

Gray for Chase Petty is currently a heavy win for the Twins.  We are currently at 5.6 WAR - most likely end in the 6-7 WAR range.   Petty is in A+ ball and has done well this year,  he also had arm soreness to start the year (I would keep an eye on this to see if a 1 off or may be early precursors to Tommy John).  If the Twins get a prospect for Gray at the end of the 2024 1st round,  that is a massive win.  

The Dobnak extension didn't work out, but if he had performed would have been a massive deal, even still its chump change.  Paddack is under the same philosophy as Gray and Maeda.  Both Gray and Maeda we have the potential to receive draft compensation if they sign deals with other teams.  With Paddack if he performs well next year and the Twins offer the qualifying offer and he rejects,  they receive a 2nd round pick if the contract is less than $50 million and a 1st if its more than $50 million.   Its not a high probability it occurs but its a possibility and its worth the risk.   

I would argue the pitching depth is much stronger than we have had at any time in the last decade.  They have Lopez tied up as its Ace for 4 years.  You have Ober and Ryan on cheap contracts.  You have Winder flipping from long relief back to AAA.   In AAA you have Varland and SWR.   I have more faith in varland.   You have Paddack as a 1 year reclamation project similar to Maeda of this year.   Long-term ace potential is likely Priellip or Soto.  In AA you have Festa and Raya.   In A+ ball you have Lewis Matthews and Morris.  Then we have a load of new draftees to add to the pitching depth.   I still have high hopes for Canterino.   Again there is no top 100 prospect,  but the pitching depth is much more than the sum of their parts and I think there will be several arms that come out of the system.  

I guess where I get frustrated is many think the front office should be held accountable for some of the issues of Ownership.  That is a difficult question,  in some aspects I can understand it, in other aspects I just don't.  If you want a free wielding front office on contracts I would tell you to change your fandom to San Diego, Mets or Yankees currently because the Twins ownership will likely never allow that.  Even still,  the Mets and Padres still show you can spend all the money in the world and still not get the performance you want and we also have our own issues with the Correa contract.  

Ultimately this is a water cooler, and it is here more than anything to voice frustration not to dole out accolades :) Just look at the 9 articles on this website with a negative tone against the Twins and management after the deadline.  There have been 2 so far with positive spin - and 2 with positive analysis on the Twins current win streak.    Even still I guess I see a much rosier picture than most here and willing to give the organization additional time.   My guess is ownership is also pretty pleased - but that is much more difficult to judge.   The fans are still showing up - most likely will win the division and have had 2 great drafts in a row.   I think the front office can sell their vision.  Will the water cooler share it . . .   As of now that is a negative.  

Correa was a major gamble and I think the major determination on the front office,  if he continues to struggle, the noose may begin to tighten.  Maybe they can get out of the contract, I think Correa will likely perform to historical norms,  but it is worth keeping an eye on.   This was a contract most were happy about, but it could be the front offices doom.  It was a big gamble and risk with such a large contract.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Idk what defines a dominant August/September. The Twins have the easiest schedule in baseball, and it's gotten even easier with teams selling and/or collapsing in on themselves. Bankroll the Ws, you need them and they're certainly more enjoyable to watch, but I don't feel any better about this team in October. 

Does a WC series win feel better than a loss? Is that even a question? Hell, I'll feel better just breaking the damn losing streak. My opinion of the FO isn't going to radically shift if they win 2 of 3 at home though. 

Just for giggles - the terms of success are now deemed if they have success if they win or do well in the ALCS.   That is effectively being one of the top 4 teams in MLB for the playoffs.   I do understand winning at the end of the season against weaker competition,  but that discounts the Twins having one of the tougher schedules earlier in the season and effectively playing .500 ball or better.   

The cardinals one of the teams that some have said we should be based off of,  has lost in the Wild card the last 3 years and lost in the NLCS in 2019.   You could argue if we get the playoff and to the ALCS we would have a very similar post season success rate.    

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

27 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

I see more of a long term approach that they are building that they have tried to supplement the short term teams by raiding their previous years drafts.   I just want to argue a couple of your claims

Pablo Lopez signed a long term contract has 2 more years of control and will likely be an ace.  I like Arraez but I think this years performance will be an outlier and we have have replaced Arraez with Julien.  That appears to have been a massive win.  

Gray for Chase Petty is currently a heavy win for the Twins.  We are currently at 5.6 WAR - most likely end in the 6-7 WAR range.   Petty is in A+ ball and has done well this year,  he also had arm soreness to start the year (I would keep an eye on this to see if a 1 off or may be early precursors to Tommy John).  If the Twins get a prospect for Gray at the end of the 2024 1st round,  that is a massive win.  

The Dobnak extension didn't work out, but if he had performed would have been a massive deal, even still its chump change.  Paddack is under the same philosophy as Gray and Maeda.  Both Gray and Maeda we have the potential to receive draft compensation if they sign deals with other teams.  With Paddack if he performs well next year and the Twins offer the qualifying offer and he rejects,  they receive a 2nd round pick if the contract is less than $50 million and a 1st if its more than $50 million.   Its not a high probability it occurs but its a possibility and its worth the risk.   

I would argue the pitching depth is much stronger than we have had at any time in the last decade.  They have Lopez tied up as its Ace for 4 years.  You have Ober and Ryan on cheap contracts.   In AAA you have Varland and SWR.   I have more faith in varland.   You have Paddack as a 1 year reclamation project similar to Maeda of this year.   Long-term ace potential is likely Priellip or Soto.  In AA you have Festa and Raya.   In A+ ball you have Lewis Matthews and Morris.  Then we have a load of new draftees to add to the pitching depth.   I still have high hopes for Canterino.   Again there is no top 100 prospect,  but the pitching depth is much more than the sum of their parts and I think there will be several arms that come out of the system.  

I guess where I get frustrated is many think the front office should be held accountable for some of the issues of Ownership.  That is a difficult question,  in some aspects I can understand it, in other aspects I just don't.  If you want a free wielding front office on contracts I would tell you to change your fandom to San Diego, Mets or Yankees currently.  Even still,  the Mets and Padres still show you can spend all the money in the world and still not get the performance you want and we also have our own issues with the Correa contract.  

Ultimately this is a water cooler, and it is here more than anything to voice frustration not to dole out accolades :)  Even still I guess I see a much rosier picture than most and willing to give the organization additional time.   My guess is ownership is also pretty pleased - but that is much more difficult to judge.   The fans are still showing up - most likely will win the division and have had 2 great drafts in a row.   I think the front office can sell their vision.  Will the water cooler share it . . .   As of now that is a negative.  

Correa was a major gamble and I think the major determination on the front office,  if he continues to struggle, the noose may begin to tighten.  Maybe they can get out of the contract, I think Correa will likely perform to historical norms,  but it is worth keeping an eye on.   This was a contract most were happy about, but it could be the front offices doom.  It was a big gamble and risk with such a large contract.  

This is all nice, water cooler talk, like you said. Like I said at the top, I have no idea what Falvey’s vision for this team is. It has surely changed since they were hired on and selected Royce Lewis  number 1 overall to be a cornerstone of the franchise. I agree with you about the Correa signing. It could spell their fate or cement their legacy.

I have trouble following the prospect talk on this board sometimes. Minor leaguers who have good games are rightly headlined each night, but I think it makes the prospect pool sound better than it really is. Player X dominates one night, player Y steamrolls the next night, and the overall effect on readers is that the farm system is full of players who dominate and steamroll the competition night after night. I don’t see it. Particularly with the pitching, I just don’t see it. 

No one will care about the front office when the postseason begins. It will be all about the game, players and fans, at that point. 🙂

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Just for giggles - the terms of success are now deemed if they have success if they win or do well in the ALCS.   That is effectively being one of the top 4 teams in MLB for the playoffs.   I do understand winning at the end of the season against weaker competition,  but that discounts the Twins having one of the tougher schedules earlier in the season and effectively playing .500 ball or better.   

The cardinals one of the teams that some have said we should be based off of,  has lost in the Wild card the last 3 years and lost in the NLCS in 2019.   You could argue if we get the playoff and to the ALCS we would have a very similar post season success rate.    

The Twins have finished under .500 more times under this regime than the Cards have in the entire 21st century. Not sure we want to do a lot of comparing the Twins to the Cards.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

The Twins have finished under .500 more times under this regime than the Cards have in the entire 21st century. Not sure we want to do a lot of comparing the Twins to the Cards.

pretty sure the argument is since 2017 unless we are moving the goalposts.    

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

pretty sure the argument is since 2017 unless we are moving the goalposts.    

Ok. This will be the first time since 2017 the Cards finish under .500. The Twins have done it 3 times. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ok. This will be the first time since 2017 the Cards finish under .500. The Twins have done it 3 times. 

and neither have shown success in the playoffs during that time frame, which the masses including yourself seem to be clamoring for.   -  Look not a negative comment just trying to show how difficult it is for an organization to be deemed successful.   I am done for the day.  Like your takes Chpettit.   Saw 1 more thing -  since 1987 we have won the same amount of WS - beyond that yes we have paled as an organization compared to the Cardinals.  

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

and neither have shown success in the playoffs during that time frame, which the masses including yourself seem to be clamoring for.   -  Look not a negative comment just trying to show how difficult it is for an organization to be deemed successful.   I am done for the day.  Like your takes Chpettit.   Saw 1 more thing -  since 1987 we have won the same amount of WS - beyond that yes we have paled as an organization compared to the Cardinals.  

Oh, unless you're winning the WS every year fans will complain. But there's a difference between winning 85+ games while battling for your division every year then struggling in the playoffs and finishing under .500 half the time while not winning a playoff game in 20 years. 

If the Twins had the last 23 years the Cards have had many of us wouldn't complain so loud. I just think you're missing a lot of context when comparing those 2 orgs if you just say they've both struggled in the playoffs recently. 

[KirbyDome89]

38 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Just for giggles - the terms of success are now deemed if they have success if they win or do well in the ALCS.   That is effectively being one of the top 4 teams in MLB for the playoffs.   I do understand winning at the end of the season against weaker competition,  but that discounts the Twins having one of the tougher schedules earlier in the season and effectively playing .500 ball or better.   

The cardinals one of the teams that some have said we should be based off of,  has lost in the Wild card the last 3 years and lost in the NLCS in 2019.   You could argue if we get the playoff and to the ALCS we would have a very similar post season success rate.    

I don't understand what we're driving at with the ALCS talk in regards to what a dominant second half of the regular season looks like. 

The Twins have one of the easiest SOS to date, which means their first half wasn't all that difficult either. 

Twins vs. Cards postseason success isn't the hill to die on. 

[spanman2]

Let's get a playoff game 'W' 1st...

[rwilfong86]

3 hours ago, ewen21 said:

Every single team in our division besides us has made it to the WS in the last 20 years.  Just sayin

You can add since the Twins last won a playoff game.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Many suppositions are. You just have to learn to ignore them.

If I decide to ignore suppositions, I won't be able to read any comments. ☹️

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm curious, do people really think fans would complain if they lost two world series games, or is that snark?

I don't love how this FO seems unwilling to move on, see Gallo. They sent Julien down after polanco came back the first time. They refused to promote Wallner for months. It's like they don't trust their own system. Yet, the time guys are carrying this team, hitting wise. 

To answer the OP, of course they're back of they win a playoff series. And they should be. 

Sorry.  It was my (bad) attempt to be (a little) snarky.  It was directed at a number of posters who see their baseball team as a zero sum game.  I’m paraphrasing, but there definitely are people who are very frustrated that the FO has been here for seven years and we haven’t won a WS.  There are also plenty here that are grading the season’s success on style points, i.e. we strike out too much so our team sucks.  For too many there is no joy to be gotten from baseball and that’s a shame. 

I don’t look at the baseball season as either you won it all and had a good season or you didn’t and had a bad season.  I do think there is some real positive in winning the division, regardless how bad we think the other teams are.  If the same situation didn’t exist in 1987, we wouldn’t have a WS championship to take pride in.  I also think that putting a mostly solid product on the field that can play competitive baseball most of the time is a lot better than the alternative like that 100 loss team from a few years back.  

I share many of the same misgivings as you and others about facets of this year’s team.  I just don’t let those things get in the way of making it fun and continuing to hope for good outcomes.  I’m OK if we win the division and keep losing in the playoffs (although I’ll be frustrated), but I’d be awfully happy if we could win a series or two (or three)! Let’s hope we can take at least the first step this year!

[joefish]

Most preseason guesses I saw had us winning 80+ games. Just above a .500 mark. I wanted more but my prediction was 85.  I wish for more, but we should get there. 

Maybe we get hot and ride it into the playoffs. Maybe. I hope.

[NotAboutWinning]

I think the first part of this question is quickly becoming moot 🫤