Dissecting Dallas Keuchel

[jorgenswest]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Dallas Keuchel had a 2.060 WHIP in 60.2 innings last year. His WHIP in 162 innings in 2021 was 1.531. So his WHIP in his last 227.2 major league innings is 1.6823. 

We're well aware that a 1 game WHIP isn't a useful data point on its own. But he hasn't been good for years. His WHIP in AAA when some people around here were claiming he was dominating was 1.25. That's not exactly a great data point for him suddenly being better than a 1.6+ WHIP at the major league level.

WHIP and ERA are useless for prediction. So many other measures will tell the story long before they stabilize.

The question is whether the time off to regain health and the time at driveline has helped him regain effectiveness. There might be some insight from yesterday’s game and his minor league stint to answer those questions. I don’t know where to see minor league pitch level data but the Twins have it. I suspect it was not that encouraging or they would have found a way to roster him without the Ryan injury.

If we can see an answer with what is available to us I suspect we will see it with what the OP posted or maybe here first (perhaps in the pitch tracking section). 

 

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

I would disagree with just looking at xBA as a standard of luck.  I personally would say any weak contact that were not clearly intended to be so, a bunt, or a guy looking to hit the ball to a particular spot in the field is mostly luck.  Yes, Dallas got lucky on the liner right at the 3rd baseman with bases loaded, but I would not say the first double play was lucky.  I would say the couple of little looping line drives were more luck.  

I am not a fan of Keuchel and am not expecting much from him.  However, if he can be on a good run for a couple of weeks, luck or otherwise, I am fine with it.  I doubt he will be expected to help us in playoffs, barring injuries and would most likely not make roster, unless he puts up crazy performance last 2 months here. So if he can luck his way through next 2 months I am fine with it, but he is still just a 5th starter and would not start a playoff game. 

I'm with you on Keuchel overall, and I get what you're saying about weak contact in xBA, but if getting groundballs is such a big part of his game, we have to be realistic that he'll give up some hits on them, oftentimes on weak contact.  It might seem weird that a ball hit at 60 MPH could have a 30% chance of going for a hit, but that's the reality of pitching for that kind of contact.

At any rate, his overall results on balls in play were actually in very close agreement with his xBA and xWOBA yesterday, even if the hits and outs didn't individually matchup with the contact quality.  His 90% left-on-base rate was the lucky part.

He did actually exceed my expectations in terms of getting groundballs and weak contact.  I thought there would be a few more rockets than there actually were.  But at the same time zero strikeouts is a pretty ominous sign.  He might get "unlucky" in some future start by giving up a bunch of runs on dribblers and choppers.  But if he's not missing bats that's going to happen to him and it's not exactly bad luck, it's just what happens to a pitcher like him.

I don't think yesterday's start changed any opinions on the believers or doubters of Keuchel.  The results were there but the process was a tightrope walk.

[Craig Arko]

Just remember to sew him back together afterwards. He’ll be needed again.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

WHIP and ERA are useless for prediction. So many other measures will tell the story long before they stabilize.

The question is whether the time off to regain health and the time at driveline has helped him regain effectiveness. There might be some insight from yesterday’s game and his minor league stint to answer those questions. I don’t know where to see minor league pitch level data but the Twins have it. I suspect it was not that encouraging or they would have found a way to roster him without the Ryan injury.

If we can see an answer with what is available to us I suspect we will see it with what the OP posted or maybe here first (perhaps in the pitch tracking section). 

 

They are absolutely not useless for prediction. In terms of predicting exactly what their WHIP or ERA is going to be for a full season? Sure. But in predicting likelihood of effective pitching for a super small sample size? They're absolutely useful, especially when used in conjunction with K%, and if you emphasize their BB% in regards to WHIP. We're not talking about team building or big picture/season long stuff here, just whether or not we should expect Dallas Keuchel to be useful for a handful of starts. We don't need to do a deep dive into analytics here.

I'm all for analytics, but a guy who hasn't been good at keeping guys off base for multiple years, and 225+ innings, hasn't been good at keeping guys from scoring for multiple years, and 225+ innings, and doesn't strike anyone out is a pretty safe bet to continue to not be good at keeping guys off base, not letting them score, or getting Ks. If Keuchel is absolutely perfect with his command and control he can succeed. I don't need analytics to tell me that the chances of any human performing to that level of expectation for any extended period of time, or from appearance to appearance, is miniscule. We don't need to overthink this. The odds of Keuchel being useful for any real amount of time are incredibly small. Let's hope he can hold on for dear life as long as we need him, though.

[Blair Hanscom]

Good article. Excellent comments. Keep in mind that Keuchel was pitching nine days after his prior start. All the extra rest is not great for a pitcher in general, a specifically not great for a pitcher who throws the ball like Keuchel. If his WHIP continues around 2, there will be issues. But we’ll see what the normal 4 days of rest does for him. Hopefully we’re all happy when we see a bigger, more optimal sample size.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think a WHIP of 2 with an inability to strike people out is completely and totally unsustainable.

Of course, a WHIP of 2 and a 90% strand rate is unsustainable. I would also argue that giving up a base hit on a ball hit under 61mph three times in five innings is unsustainable. 

Giving up only two XBA-worthy batted balls in five innings is very sustainable. Having an average exit velocity of 81.7mph is extremely sustainable. Having a groundball rate of 61.9% is very sustainable.

Keuchel's xERA was 5.49, meaning his performance was worth 3 ER over 5.0 IP. For the sake of argument, we'll just say that he gives up an RBI double to Christian Walker in the 3rd and then strands him. 

If your 5th starter is able to go out and give you five innings of two or three run ball, that's about as good as you can ask for. It's certainly better than what Joe Ryan has given the Twins over the past month, and it's definitely better than what anyone at AAA would give the Twins (with maybe the exception of Louis Varland).

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Of course, a WHIP of 2 and a 90% strand rate is unsustainable. I would also argue that giving up a base hit on a ball hit under 61mph three times in five innings is unsustainable. 

Giving up only two XBA-worthy batted balls in five innings is very sustainable. Having an average exit velocity of 81.7mph is extremely sustainable. Having a groundball rate of 61.9% is very sustainable.

Keuchel's xERA was 5.49, meaning his performance was worth 3 ER over 5.0 IP. For the sake of argument, we'll just say that he gives up an RBI double to Christian Walker in the 3rd and then strands him. 

If your 5th starter is able to go out and give you five innings of two or three run ball, that's about as good as you can ask for. It's certainly better than what Joe Ryan has given the Twins over the past month, and it's definitely better than what anyone at AAA would give the Twins (with maybe the exception of Louis Varland).

No, I don't think those things are sustainable, actually. Unless your argument is that Dallas Keuchel is going to have his 3rd highest ground ball rate of his career, and highest since 2017. He has broken 55% once since then (58.2% in 2019). So, no, I don't think he can sustain that.

I'm not sure what you mean by "two XBA-worthy batted balls in five innings." He gave up 9 balls hit over 90 MPH in 5 innings. That's nearly 2 an inning. If you're giving up 2 balls hit over 90 MPH every inning you don't get to then complain about giving up 60 MPH hits.

No, an ERA of 5+ is not "about as good as you can ask for" from your #5 starter if you're trying to win a division, and think you're a real playoff contender. Not at all. Not even close. There are 7 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA over 5. Only 13 with an ERA over 4.5. Even dropping the innings requirement down to 90 gets you to 23 pitchers with an ERA over 4.5. Dylan Bundy didn't even have an ERA over 5 last year, let alone 5.40. We can, and absolutely should, be demanding more than 3 runs over 5 innings from any and every pitcher who ever takes the mound for the Twins.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

They are absolutely not useless for prediction. In terms of predicting exactly what their WHIP or ERA is going to be for a full season? Sure. But in predicting likelihood of effective pitching for a super small sample size? They're absolutely useful, especially when used in conjunction with K%, and if you emphasize their BB% in regards to WHIP. We're not talking about team building or big picture/season long stuff here, just whether or not we should expect Dallas Keuchel to be useful for a handful of starts. We don't need to do a deep dive into analytics here.

I'm all for analytics, but a guy who hasn't been good at keeping guys off base for multiple years, and 225+ innings, hasn't been good at keeping guys from scoring for multiple years, and 225+ innings, and doesn't strike anyone out is a pretty safe bet to continue to not be good at keeping guys off base, not letting them score, or getting Ks. If Keuchel is absolutely perfect with his command and control he can succeed. I don't need analytics to tell me that the chances of any human performing to that level of expectation for any extended period of time, or from appearance to appearance, is miniscule. We don't need to overthink this. The odds of Keuchel being useful for any real amount of time are incredibly small. Let's hope he can hold on for dear life as long as we need him, though.

Concur with paragraph 2. 

[USAFChief]

Hopefully, We just need Kuechel to continue to get lucky for a handful of starts here. 

We're one for one. People have hit on inside straights a handful of times in a row before. It could happen.

 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It was one game... let's see what happens in his 2nd start and 3rd start. I will be pulling for him. 

If you look at his career... his best seasons had a ground ball ratio in the 60 percent range and his worst seasons produced a GB% in the lower 50's.  

If he can keep producing ground balls... he just might be alright.  

Let's see what he does. 

The rest of the rotation is fly ball pitchers. If Keuchel's 60% GB rate is going to influence the Twins to regularly keep Julien and Polanco out of the lineup in favor of better defenders like Farmer and Castro, then they'll be sacrificing offense to justify his spot in the rotation.

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm more concerned with winning baseball games than throwing a bone to a guy with declining stuff. 

I really don't want Keuchel in the rotation, we've seen this smoke and mirrors approach get absolutely destroyed in recent years. This isn't old school baseball anymore where a crafty vet with no velocity can out-duel the opposing team with his years of experience. The other team is using computers now; those have a better memory and predictive power than the crafty vet's brain.

The Twins have had problems with this type of pitcher recently too. If they have a couple of decent outings, they give these vets an unreasonably long leash. This could easily turn into a Dylan Bundy or J.A. Happ situation.

This is the 5th spot in the Rotation.  Dylan Bundy was fine for that.  He had a 8-8 record.  Made his starts and got through 5 innings consistently.  That is the floor of a good 5th starter.  
As far as Keuchel is concerned.  There is enough to be concerned about but he has earned another start or two.  He had 6 good starts in AAA and 1 solid one here.  I think we all would have been upset if he left without the opportunity.  The results say he deserves another start.  I don’t expect him to end up with anything less than a 4.00 era with a larger sample size of innings.  And if he goes higher then that we can yank him out and put Varland back in.  I would give him a minimum 3 or 4 starts.  

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

No, I don't think those things are sustainable, actually. Unless your argument is that Dallas Keuchel is going to have his 3rd highest ground ball rate of his career, and highest since 2017. He has broken 55% once since then (58.2% in 2019). So, no, I don't think he can sustain that.

I'm not sure what you mean by "two XBA-worthy batted balls in five innings." He gave up 9 balls hit over 90 MPH in 5 innings. That's nearly 2 an inning. If you're giving up 2 balls hit over 90 MPH every inning you don't get to then complain about giving up 60 MPH hits.

No, an ERA of 5+ is not "about as good as you can ask for" from your #5 starter if you're trying to win a division, and think you're a real playoff contender. Not at all. Not even close. There are 7 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA over 5. Only 13 with an ERA over 4.5. Even dropping the innings requirement down to 90 gets you to 23 pitchers with an ERA over 4.5. Dylan Bundy didn't even have an ERA over 5 last year, let alone 5.40. We can, and absolutely should, be demanding more than 3 runs over 5 innings from any and every pitcher who ever takes the mound for the Twins.

Balls hit 90+ mph that are at negative launch angle or at a launch angle above 40⁰ are vastly different than line drives hit at the same velocity. The XBH comment refers to the fact that the only two balls hit off of him with a chance of going for a double were a) the double in the 5th and b) the lineout in the 3rd. Guys were not barreling up baseballs and send deep flies to the warning track or the seats.

As far as the "No 5th starter of mine will have an ERA above 5.00" line goes, we have to remember that Keuchel is the 8th member of the rotation and is not going to start a playoff game. He's probably going to make three to nine starts while we wait for Joe Ryan to recover. No one is advocating for Keuchel to pitch 200 innings and be a key component of the '24 Twins. He's here to make a few spot starts and give the team a chance to win over the next couple of weeks.

As of right now, I am much more in favor of having Keuchel pitch five innings of 4.50 ERA ball than have late June/July's Joe Ryan taking the ball with an injured groin. I am also much more in favor of Keuchel's ability to keep the ball on the ground than to see Louis Varland give up a gut-wrenching two or three run home run towards the end of his starts. Unless you have ten different versions of 2014 Clayton Kershaw, getting 5 innings of sub-5.00 ERA ball out of your eighth best starter is good. You can preen and declare that every pitcher should have a sub-4.00 ERA, but in reality, getting five innings out of spot starters is a success. 

[chpettit19]

54 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Balls hit 90+ mph that are at negative launch angle or at a launch angle above 40⁰ are vastly different than line drives hit at the same velocity. The XBH comment refers to the fact that the only two balls hit off of him with a chance of going for a double were a) the double in the 5th and b) the lineout in the 3rd. Guys were not barreling up baseballs and send deep flies to the warning track or the seats.

As far as the "No 5th starter of mine will have an ERA above 5.00" line goes, we have to remember that Keuchel is the 8th member of the rotation and is not going to start a playoff game. He's probably going to make three to nine starts while we wait for Joe Ryan to recover. No one is advocating for Keuchel to pitch 200 innings and be a key component of the '24 Twins. He's here to make a few spot starts and give the team a chance to win over the next couple of weeks.

As of right now, I am much more in favor of having Keuchel pitch five innings of 4.50 ERA ball than have late June/July's Joe Ryan taking the ball with an injured groin. I am also much more in favor of Keuchel's ability to keep the ball on the ground than to see Louis Varland give up a gut-wrenching two or three run home run towards the end of his starts. Unless you have ten different versions of 2014 Clayton Kershaw, getting 5 innings of sub-5.00 ERA ball out of your eighth best starter is good. You can preen and declare that every pitcher should have a sub-4.00 ERA, but in reality, getting five innings out of spot starters is a success. 

You didn't say XBH, you said XBA so that was my confusion there. By the statcast definition of "barrel," sure, guys weren't "barreling up baseballs." But hitting the ball over 90 MPH is getting the barrel on the ball. And if you're letting 2 guys every inning hit the ball that hard (I didn't even count the 2 other balls that were hit at 88.4 and 88.5 MPH) you're not setting yourself up for sustainable success because a fraction of an inch higher or lower on that barrel and those balls are to the warning track or seats. He gave up an avg exit velo of 88.3 in 2021, and 88.8 in 2022. So seeing over half the balls put in play against him be at, or above, those numbers isn't encouraging at all for his sustained success.

I'm confused by your entire stance. You go from "I didn't believe in him and wanted Varland, etc. instead of him" to "his expected data (unless you ignore the expected data I didn't like) and hard hit data were bad, but now I'm a big believer in him because he has an admittedly unsustainable GB% in 5 innings!" All of his expected data points, even from that miniscule 5 IP sample size, are in line with his last 2 years when he was atrocious, but you're trying to sell that we just ignore that because his sample size was so small that a couple extremely low outlier balls in play skewed his exit velo numbers, and he had an unsustainably low launch angle against? Comparing a 5 inning start at the age of 35 to his age 27 season is some awfully questionable analytics work.

Oh, and Varland was basically the exact pitcher you're describing being happy if Keuchel becomes. So I'm not sure why those 5 IP made you change your mind on that front. He had a 5.30 ERA in 10 starts while you're suggesting that Keuchel is a clearly better option because you expect a 5.40 ERA (3 earned over 5 IP) over 9 starts.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

You didn't say XBH, you said XBA so that was my confusion there. By the statcast definition of "barrel," sure, guys weren't "barreling up baseballs." But hitting the ball over 90 MPH is getting the barrel on the ball. And if you're letting 2 guys every inning hit the ball that hard (I didn't even count the 2 other balls that were hit at 88.4 and 88.5 MPH) you're not setting yourself up for sustainable success because a fraction of an inch higher or lower on that barrel and those balls are to the warning track or seats. He gave up an avg exit velo of 88.3 in 2021, and 88.8 in 2022. So seeing over half the balls put in play against him be at, or above, those numbers isn't encouraging at all for his sustained success.

I'm confused by your entire stance. You go from "I didn't believe in him and wanted Varland, etc. instead of him" to "his expected data (unless you ignore the expected data I didn't like) and hard hit data were bad, but now I'm a big believer in him because he has an admittedly unsustainable GB% in 5 innings!" All of his expected data points, even from that miniscule 5 IP sample size, are in line with his last 2 years when he was atrocious, but you're trying to sell that we just ignore that because his sample size was so small that a couple extremely low outlier balls in play skewed his exit velo numbers, and he had an unsustainably low launch angle against? Comparing a 5 inning start at the age of 35 to his age 27 season is some awfully questionable analytics work.

Oh, and Varland was basically the exact pitcher you're describing being happy if Keuchel becomes. So I'm not sure why those 5 IP made you change your mind on that front. He had a 5.30 ERA in 10 starts while you're suggesting that Keuchel is a clearly better option because you expect a 5.40 ERA (3 earned over 5 IP) over 9 starts.

No, not all data points are in line with his previous two years. Basically every batted metric is at or better than his '15/'17 seasons. Again, his average exit velo allowed yesterday was 81.7mph (at an LA of 1.1, identical to his '15 number), which is well below his 85.7 and 85.5 marks in those seasons. Because of the way averages work, it's likely that you're going to see a hefty chunk of the sample size above the average (duh), so I'm not sure why 9 of 21 batted balls being hit above 90mph is especially concerning. His EV, LA, Sweet Spot %, Barrel rate, xwOBA-CON, xSLG, and walk rate are all in line with his peak numbers. I mentioned at the top how the xBA (and by extension xwOBA) stats are skewed because he didn't strike anyone out, and I feel I am not ignoring any statcast numbers. If you think that I am you are welcome to tell me what I missed and why that stat in particular supersedes the rest of them.

Gerrit Cole, who is probably going to win the AL Cy Young, is giving up an average EV of 89.0mph and an average LA of 14 degrees. I am not trying to be nitpicky here, notable pitch-to-contact guys like Framber Valdez and Marcus Stroman both have average exit velos allowed above 90mph. Cole is able to be effective by having a high K-rate, and the latter two make hitters put the ball on the ground (which lowers its speed very quickly as it approaches a fielder). Keuchel needs to make hitters put the ball on the ground, which he did.

I am really curious why you believe that his groundball rate is unsustainable. As mentioned in the topic, he's basically working with the same repertoire as he used in '15 with the exception of a less effective slider. His sinker and changeup are both really effective, and there is nothing unsustainable about an average LA allowed being between 1 and 5 degrees. The sinker is essentially the same sinker he threw in '15 and his changeup has more drop (thus inducing more grounders), so the pitch mix is there for him to continue inducing many grounders.

The unsustainable numbers that I see in his underlying metrics are his K-rate (no way that is going to be any less than 14% in a larger sample size) and it is likely that his EV allowed is going to go up, as he's not going to induce five or six dribblers in the infield every game. 

I am also unsure that my stance is unclear. I said that a starter giving five innings of two or three run ball is good for a spot starter. That's a 4.50 ERA (2.5 runs over 5). My main issue with Keuchel coming in was the fact that he has not been as effective in working the count in '22 and '21 as he was earlier in his career. I outlined from the outset how he got into more 3-0 counts and fewer 0-2 counts in recent years. I was not optimistic about his ability to suddenly regain precise control. After Keuchel's start, he showed a good ability to work the count (this is all mentioned in the topic) and hitters hit the ball weakly on the ground (on average). His stuff has not diminished (besides his slider) and so there is a small hope that the '23 Keuchel could pitch like the '15 or '17 Keuchel. That is why I believe, based on past and present performance, that Keuchel deserves to pitch in the rotation for the next couple of weeks over guys like Varland, Sands, and Winder, who have shown that they are not suitable as a 5th starter on a contender.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, Ricky Willms said:

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

I see no reason to "cut" a journeyman retread pitcher "some slack". This is a big league baseball team trying to win the division, not some bottom division team looking for a Disney movie.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

No, not all data points are in line with his previous two years. Basically every batted metric is at or better than his '15/'17 seasons. Again, his average exit velo allowed yesterday was 81.7mph (at an LA of 1.1, identical to his '15 number), which is well below his 85.7 and 85.5 marks in those seasons. Because of the way averages work, it's likely that you're going to see a hefty chunk of the sample size above the average (duh), so I'm not sure why 9 of 21 batted balls being hit above 90mph is especially concerning. His EV, LA, Sweet Spot %, Barrel rate, xwOBA-CON, xSLG, and walk rate are all in line with his peak numbers. I mentioned at the top how the xBA (and by extension xwOBA) stats are skewed because he didn't strike anyone out, and I feel I am not ignoring any statcast numbers. If you think that I am you are welcome to tell me what I missed and why that stat in particular supersedes the rest of them.

Gerrit Cole, who is probably going to win the AL Cy Young, is giving up an average EV of 89.0mph and an average LA of 14 degrees. I am not trying to be nitpicky here, notable pitch-to-contact guys like Framber Valdez and Marcus Stroman both have average exit velos allowed above 90mph. Cole is able to be effective by having a high K-rate, and the latter two make hitters put the ball on the ground (which lowers its speed very quickly as it approaches a fielder). Keuchel needs to make hitters put the ball on the ground, which he did.

I am really curious why you believe that his groundball rate is unsustainable. As mentioned in the topic, he's basically working with the same repertoire as he used in '15 with the exception of a less effective slider. His sinker and changeup are both really effective, and there is nothing unsustainable about an average LA allowed being between 1 and 5 degrees. The sinker is essentially the same sinker he threw in '15 and his changeup has more drop (thus inducing more grounders), so the pitch mix is there for him to continue inducing many grounders.

The unsustainable numbers that I see in his underlying metrics are his K-rate (no way that is going to be any less than 14% in a larger sample size) and it is likely that his EV allowed is going to go up, as he's not going to induce five or six dribblers in the infield every game. 

I am also unsure that my stance is unclear. I said that a starter giving five innings of two or three run ball is good for a spot starter. That's a 4.50 ERA (2.5 runs over 5). My main issue with Keuchel coming in was the fact that he has not been as effective in working the count in '22 and '21 as he was earlier in his career. I outlined from the outset how he got into more 3-0 counts and fewer 0-2 counts in recent years. I was not optimistic about his ability to suddenly regain precise control. After Keuchel's start, he showed a good ability to work the count (this is all mentioned in the topic) and hitters hit the ball weakly on the ground (on average). His stuff has not diminished (besides his slider) and so there is a small hope that the '23 Keuchel could pitch like the '15 or '17 Keuchel. That is why I believe, based on past and present performance, that Keuchel deserves to pitch in the rotation for the next couple of weeks over guys like Varland, Sands, and Winder, who have shown that they are not suitable as a 5th starter on a contender.

Because of the way human bodies work there's a max to how hard a ball can be hit. With only 21 data points it is far easier to skew the average lower with a couple really low numbers than it is to skew it higher because there's no possibility of a 130 MPH hit. So the percentage of balls hit really hard is more important than the average because the average doesn't have enough data points to tell a real story yet.

Stroman has a 20% K rate. Valdez has a 26% K rate. Keuchel hasn't touched 20% since 2017. And it was 0 yesterday. If you're going to go off his 5 IP yesterday you don't get to ignore that 0. The debate is whether or not he can sustain that performance. If he can't K people he can't maintain that performance. He's not suddenly going to bounce back to a 20% K rate after 6 years.

Because 2015 was 8 years ago and he hasn't been nearly that effective in 5 years. You're using 5 IP to suggest a 35 year old who hasn't been any good at all in years is going to turn back the clock 5 to 8 years. His sinker was at 30.1 inches of vertical drop last year. It was at 30.5 yesterday. It was 25.9 in 2016. Is he closer to 2022 Keuchel or 2016 Keuchel? I'm not sure where you're getting it being the same as back then when it's 4 inches of difference. Sure, the changeup has more drop, but it lost a significant part of it's run, and was closer in speed to his sinker. 

Why is his K rate so sure to not be under 14%? It was 13.2 in 2021, and 14.9 in 2022. Why would we think it's so surely going to spike this year? Even if it is 14%, or even 16%, when his exit velo normalizes to the high 80s/low 90s he's not going to be stranding 90% of his runners when he's still allowing 1.5 to 2 runners an inning. Thus his overall performance is not sustainable.

Fair enough. If 23 batters was enough to convince you Keuchel is ready to turn the clock back 8 years then we'll just agree to disagree. I hope you're right. It'll be cool to see a 35 year old suddenly start pitching like he's in the prime of his career again. But nothing about his 5 IP, 23 BF start yesterday suggests to me that that's what we're about to see.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

No, not all data points are in line with his previous two years. Basically every batted metric is at or better than his '15/'17 seasons. Again, his average exit velo allowed yesterday was 81.7mph (at an LA of 1.1, identical to his '15 number), which is well below his 85.7 and 85.5 marks in those seasons. Because of the way averages work, it's likely that you're going to see a hefty chunk of the sample size above the average (duh), so I'm not sure why 9 of 21 batted balls being hit above 90mph is especially concerning. His EV, LA, Sweet Spot %, Barrel rate, xwOBA-CON, xSLG, and walk rate are all in line with his peak numbers. I mentioned at the top how the xBA (and by extension xwOBA) stats are skewed because he didn't strike anyone out, and I feel I am not ignoring any statcast numbers. If you think that I am you are welcome to tell me what I missed and why that stat in particular supersedes the rest of them.

Gerrit Cole, who is probably going to win the AL Cy Young, is giving up an average EV of 89.0mph and an average LA of 14 degrees. I am not trying to be nitpicky here, notable pitch-to-contact guys like Framber Valdez and Marcus Stroman both have average exit velos allowed above 90mph. Cole is able to be effective by having a high K-rate, and the latter two make hitters put the ball on the ground (which lowers its speed very quickly as it approaches a fielder). Keuchel needs to make hitters put the ball on the ground, which he did.

I am really curious why you believe that his groundball rate is unsustainable. As mentioned in the topic, he's basically working with the same repertoire as he used in '15 with the exception of a less effective slider. His sinker and changeup are both really effective, and there is nothing unsustainable about an average LA allowed being between 1 and 5 degrees. The sinker is essentially the same sinker he threw in '15 and his changeup has more drop (thus inducing more grounders), so the pitch mix is there for him to continue inducing many grounders.

The unsustainable numbers that I see in his underlying metrics are his K-rate (no way that is going to be any less than 14% in a larger sample size) and it is likely that his EV allowed is going to go up, as he's not going to induce five or six dribblers in the infield every game. 

I am also unsure that my stance is unclear. I said that a starter giving five innings of two or three run ball is good for a spot starter. That's a 4.50 ERA (2.5 runs over 5). My main issue with Keuchel coming in was the fact that he has not been as effective in working the count in '22 and '21 as he was earlier in his career. I outlined from the outset how he got into more 3-0 counts and fewer 0-2 counts in recent years. I was not optimistic about his ability to suddenly regain precise control. After Keuchel's start, he showed a good ability to work the count (this is all mentioned in the topic) and hitters hit the ball weakly on the ground (on average). His stuff has not diminished (besides his slider) and so there is a small hope that the '23 Keuchel could pitch like the '15 or '17 Keuchel. That is why I believe, based on past and present performance, that Keuchel deserves to pitch in the rotation for the next couple of weeks over guys like Varland, Sands, and Winder, who have shown that they are not suitable as a 5th starter on a contender.

We're basing all this off 5 innings?

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The rest of the rotation is fly ball pitchers. If Keuchel's 60% GB rate is going to influence the Twins to regularly keep Julien and Polanco out of the lineup in favor of better defenders like Farmer and Castro, then they'll be sacrificing offense to justify his spot in the rotation.

Certainly Possible. It seems like a very Rocco approach to his lineup card.  

Now... regularly would only be 1 out of 5 games but we also still don't know if Keuchel will keep that rotation spot. 

[IaBeanCounter]

DK made the game very nerve racking, but as someone above said the most important Stat was he gave the Twins a chance to win the game.  I think the bandbox of Philly will be the true test.  DK will have to keep the Phillies off balance and induce a lot groundballs.

[glunn]

19 hours ago, Ricky Willms said:

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

Welcome to TD.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

19 hours ago, Ricky Willms said:

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

Well let's grab the computer and multiply this by that and add and subtract that! Good god the analytics people drive me crazy!

He gave up 1 run in 5. I will take it!

[glunn]

I like having a wily veteran with championship experience, and I like Ryan getting a breather. 

[Brandon]

The problem with Keuchel is he didn’t give up enough runs so I can say see he sucks.  Instead I have to go through various stats to make the conclusion the a guy who gave up one run in 5 innings as a fillin starter should not get another one.  Especially after he had 6 or so starts in AAA with the same or better results.  And the fact that he would get at most 3-10 starts doesn’t matter because he should give up more runs because.  So let’s just not bother and go find someone else I can complain about so we can chase that starter out too.  

[GeorgiaBaller]

I remember Sergio Romo with much less velo being pretty effective.  He wasn't a starter so didn't usually see guys multiple times, but the analysis is great--he has to get early strikes in an AB to be effective.  Basic stuff, right?  However---that's the problem that many on the existing staff like Jax and Duran, who are squeezing out the most velo they can are having, as well.   

I think there is some validity to the fact that when DK misses, it is usually out of the zone.  Many young guys are trying to get back in the count and serving up middle/middle that leaves in a hurry.  Ground balls and pitch to contact were what the Twins lived of off for decades---if its weekly hit or ground balls, a good defense can handle balls in play. (Forgive me if you posted a hard hit ball stat---my eyes glazed over on some of those sections)

I could see DK as a reliever in the post season as a change of pace to throw 2 innings in a very strong roll.  I think Jury is still out this early on---give him some rope and lets see what he does with it.

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/7/2023 at 10:12 AM, nicksaviking said:

I'm more concerned with winning baseball games than throwing a bone to a guy with declining stuff. 

I really don't want Keuchel in the rotation, we've seen this smoke and mirrors approach get absolutely destroyed in recent years. This isn't old school baseball anymore where a crafty vet with no velocity can out-duel the opposing team with his years of experience. The other team is using computers now; those have a better memory and predictive power than the crafty vet's brain.

The Twins have had problems with this type of pitcher recently too. If they have a couple of decent outings, they give these vets an unreasonably long leash. This could easily turn into a Dylan Bundy or J.A. Happ situation.

Dylan Bundy was fine for 5 innings 2 out of 3 starts. He was our 4th starter though, so our expectations were much higher!

If Kuechel gets us 5 innings, average, for 6 more starts and holds teams to 3 runs or less, he’s a hero. If we send Ryan or Ober out there tired, all the previous ‘23 stat cast bologna doesn’t help them during their 25th start. On a relative basis a decent Kuechel is better than our normal starters if they feel rundown. That’s the bottom line. Doesn’t matter if Kuechel is at his 2015-2017 self…….on Sunday he looked like a guy that gave us a chance to win…….that’s the pitcher’s job.

At least 3 of 8 hits were soft contact - 2 were too soft. 2 walks in 5 innings is the guy he is now & was in St Paul.

He’s pitched to contact his whole career - he’s got experience & guts - he may get lit up a couple times but I saw Ryan give up 6 HR’s in one game & 4 in another. Can’t get worse than those two starts - give the guy a chance!

[USAFChief]

On 8/7/2023 at 6:21 AM, chpettit19 said:

I think a WHIP of 2 with an inability to strike people out is completely and totally unsustainable.

Welp, you're Half right.

Turns out a WHIP of 2 was unsustainable.

However, he did sustain the inability to strike people out. 

[Irishman]

Just release Keuchel!  I don’t want him in rotation or bullpen.   He is terrible, period!

[jorgenswest]

They should be thankful they got one good result out of two and move on. They don’t need a fifth starter again until the 24th. Fill the extra spot with a bat.

[insagt1]

If we based things on his horrible outing #2, he was probably very lucky not to have given up more than 1 run in his first start. Doesn't look like he is the 'answer'. The two relievers who pitched against the Phils aren't the 'answer' either. things getting dicey

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They should be thankful they got one good result out of two and move on. They don’t need a fifth starter again until the 24th. Fill the extra spot with a bat.

I agree they should be thankful they got one good result out of Keuchel. I disagree that they don't need a fifth starter, though. I assume you mean because of off days, but Ober is already 18 innings beyond his career high in innings pitched (and over 100 innings for only the 3rd time in his entire life), and sure looks to me like he's slowing down. The extra days off for him are pretty important I think. I'm actually expecting an IL stint for him when Ryan comes back to save some innings. The horrifying thing there is I expect them to keep rolling Keuchel out there while they IL Ober, and that sounds like an absolute disaster. But I think it's good for them to get Ober an extra day or 2 here and there by keeping the 5th starter even with off days coming up. I'd just prefer a different 5th starter than the washed up for 3 years Keuchel.