The Breakout Isn't Coming for Carlos Correa

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I am terribly afraid Lewis will be our next broken down once hopeful player.  

I'm choosing to not think about such a possibility. Can only handle so much before I cry. And I hear there's no crying in baseball.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm choosing to not think about such a possibility. Can only handle so much before I cry. And I hear there's no crying in baseball.

and do you know why there's no crying in baseball? 🙂

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

and do you know why there's no crying in baseball? 🙂

Illegal substance to add to the ball for pitchers?!

Although I've heard there's no crying in baseball because there's no crying in baseball.

[Rick Blaine]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

and do you know why there's no crying in baseball? 🙂

Because Jimmy Dugan said so. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

The silver lining is Brooks Lee was promoted to AAA recently.

 I’m hoping Correa can go on a somewhat of a hot streak and raise his average into the .240 range.  At least his power numbers are still at normal levels.

Also hoping his numbers increase back to norms next year.  If plantar fasciitis is what is holding him back this year maybe he gets treatment over the offseason and is back to normal next season.  That’s all I got.

Not to be harsh but Brooks Lee isn’t getting any of CC’s playing time, nor is anyone else, until 2027 or so.

I agree that if he gets to .240 it would be a nice salvage……I think he needs to hit .270 - .280 rest of the year to get to .240 for the year. Would be nice - that’s for sure!

The article stated his power numbers were down as well as his average. Who’s right?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 hours ago, Possumlad said:

I think it's a bit of an odd take. 

Correa's undoubtedly having a bad year, ranking 16th currently by WAR of only ~20 eligible shortstops.

But he's 28 years old and shouldn't be anywhere near past his prime. 

And he's had "off" seasons before - in 2018, he posted a 101 wRC+ & 3.4 WAR. In the shortened 2020 season, 94 wRC+. 

Those seasons were sandwiched between very good ones.

Last year he was a 4.4 WAR player with a 140 wRC+. He was similar for Houston the year before that.

I think it's reasonable to expect (not just hope) that he's somewhere between those extremes going forward. Or at least there's no reason not to expect that (other than frustration & recency bias). 

I don't have an analytical take on why; just that it would be extremely odd for a player of his caliber to fall off the way he has @ 28.

I'd expect him to be at least a well above-average starter at a premium position for the next few seasons. 

Careful with this type of take Possum, it doesn't involve cutting bait after 100 games...

Yes he is having a bad year.  He, along with most of the rest of the offense.  Correa (and Buxton) is not going anywhere.  Would be interesting to know what (if any) things may be impacting him:  Minor injuries?  Change in approach?  Are they pitching him differently because of the lineup around him?

[JoeCool]

Popkins needs to go. Sorry but look at the regression of all the free agents that arrived. They all dropped and this lineup has better talent than performance.  

They need a true hitting coach,  Would love to see the Twins bring in some real playing experience into the coaching staff to blend the analytics and art into something more balanced.  

[gman]

Correa spent all last winter chasing $350mil contracts, not practicing his normal off season routine. I'm not a Correa fan and wish they hadn't  signed him or resigned him. But I expect he'll be back to his normal next year. I also expect there is a lot of pressure he has placed on himself to prove he is worth $200mil. Very normal occurances. I would have spent all winter chasing $350mil contract if it was offered to me and I expect most on this site would have too.

 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not to be harsh but Brooks Lee isn’t getting any of CC’s playing time, nor is anyone else, until 2027 or so.

I agree that if he gets to .240 it would be a nice salvage……I think he needs to hit .270 - .280 rest of the year to get to .240 for the year. Would be nice - that’s for sure!

The article stated his power numbers were down as well as his average. Who’s right?

In terms of extra base hits, I am.  In terms of slugging percentage he is.  But that is more a function of the low batting average.

[Nick Nelson]

7 hours ago, BH67 said:

The biggest problem I have with this site is not the use of SABR-metrics to sound the alarm, which in Correa's case has significant justification.

Instead, it's the incessant use of SABR-metrics to cast a dark cloud over everything the Twins are doing.

Perhaps Falvine, Baldelli and the Pohlads deserve it. Also, Minnesota sports fans expect worst-case scenarios because the history often has been ugly.

There's a difference, however, between saying "the sky is falling" and the equivalent of a frog dissection that too often is directed to stoke such emotions.

Wouldn't it be great if they didn't consistently validate this chicken-little BS? Believe me, I'm right there with you friend. Unfortunately this team has yet to shut up any of the nay-sayers in the past two decades or so.

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Careful with this type of take Possum, it doesn't involve cutting bait after 100 games...

Yes he is having a bad year.  He, along with most of the rest of the offense.  Correa (and Buxton) is not going anywhere.  Would be interesting to know what (if any) things may be impacting him:  Minor injuries?  Change in approach?  Are they pitching him differently because of the lineup around him?

Like, because he has better hitters around him? Correa ranks 9th among qualified Twins hitters in OPS+, the only ones worse are Vazquez and Taylor. You're seriously blaming other hitters for this?? He is THE problem with the lineup come on now.

[jishfish]

I find it interesting that of the shortstops to sign major contracts in the last two years, almost all of them struggled the following year. I wonder if we're underestimating:

a.) how much of a wrench being a major FA throws into their offseason routine

b.) how much the added pressure of signing a $150M+ deal affects a player

It's not like these guys just forgot how to play ball as soon as they put pen to paper. I agree that the turnaround likely isn't going to happen for Correa this year. But I'm pretty confident a "normal" offseason will lead to a bounce-back next year. It certainly has for Semien and Seager in Texas, and I'm confident the same will be true for Correa/Turner/Bogarts as well.

[jishfish]

15 minutes ago, jishfish said:

I find it interesting that of the shortstops to sign major contracts in the last two years, almost all of them struggled the following year. I wonder if we're underestimating:

a.) how much of a wrench being a major FA throws into their offseason routine

b.) how much the added pressure of signing a $150M+ deal affects a player

It's not like these guys just forgot how to play ball as soon as they put pen to paper. I agree that the turnaround likely isn't going to happen for Correa this year. But I'm pretty confident a "normal" offseason will lead to a bounce-back next year. It certainly has for Semien and Seager in Texas, and I'm confident the same will be true for Correa/Turner/Bogarts as well.

 

I think this view may show it even better. Congrats to Dansby Swanson on being the only player to immediately be be worth his contract!

[BH67]

41 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Wouldn't it be great if they didn't consistently validate this chicken-little BS? Believe me, I'm right there with you friend. Unfortunately this team has yet to shut up any of the nay-sayers in the past two decades or so.

So when are you offering your services to Jim Pohlad, Nick? Serious question. And one more: Your business ventures notwithstanding, is such unending purgatory worth it?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Like, because he has better hitters around him? Correa ranks 9th among qualified Twins hitters in OPS+, the only ones worse are Vazquez and Taylor. You're seriously blaming other hitters for this?? He is THE problem with the lineup come on now.

Protection isn't real anyway. All the data shows this. 

[Karbo]

13 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

This seems to be an entire organization that can’t adjust… Hitters, coaches, manager & FO. This year’s rule changes benefited the organizations that are able to adjust... Baltimore, Miami, DBacks, Reds. Since organizations are led from the top, I think the FO has to go. Anything farther down the chain will not change anything.

I agree that this team doesn't seem able or willing to make adjustments at the plate. IMO Correa looked like he was starting to make some adjustments when he moved to leadoff, but recently he looks like he's back to swinging for the fences. He has to realize that he is not a true power hitter and settle for line drives using the entire field.

[Otaknam]

Correa is unable to hit an average curveball. He is always behind in the count because he flails away at a curve ball away, then pound him inside. This has been a season long problem.

[laloesch]

16 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I have to agree with you about the offensive part of the game and Polanco of Julien should probably bat leadoff. I have no insight aside from the plantar fasciitis but wonder if the defect to the right ankle area that the Giants and the Mets were so deeply concerned about is affecting him.

He’s chasing a lot, just showing no command of the strike zone. Such a contrast to Julien.

The only thing I’d submit is that Correa’s defense has been superb, back to platinum glove level (I don’t give any credence to the new wave defensive metrics, I trust my observation of the game and the observations of baseball people that I trust).

I think Correa has saved numerous base hits with his defense but then basically completely offset that value with he meager offense.

Maybe in the playoffs behind a Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray it will swing to his defense doing far more good than his offense bad.

If he is indeed suffering from Plantar fasciitis, it could be a long-term issue for him.  It took me almost 2 years to get rid of it myself which is not unusual for that ailment, and it was quite painful especially in the mornings before your muscles have a chance to stretch out.  That said he should be hitting better than he is.  I don't know.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Like, because he has better hitters around him? Correa ranks 9th among qualified Twins hitters in OPS+, the only ones worse are Vazquez and Taylor. You're seriously blaming other hitters for this?? He is THE problem with the lineup come on now.

Wrong take Nick...

I am saying that (potentially) because the players around him are not hitting well, teams may be less likely to give him better pitches to hit, which in turn may be affecting his approach.

In no way am I protecting Correa here his performance has been terrible.  I am saying that it would be very interesting to know WHY this year is different than previous ones and what may be causing it

[Woof Bronzer]

16 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

I'd like you to provide an example of his lack of humility.

As to the idea that a hot September last year is meaningless, I think you're completely wrong. One player can't make or break a baseball team if the rest of the team doesn't perform. Look at the Angels.

 

Well, calling oneself the Christian Dior of baseball players doesn't strike me as particularly humble.  It's one thing if you put up the numbers to back it up, but saying that and then performing like a black market knockoff brand doesn't really work for me.  Plus, recall that Correa openly advocated for the J Lopez trade, took it upon himself to mentor Miranda, stanned for Popkins, and convinced Buxton to DH.  Given how poorly all of those things look now, it would appear Carlos' baseball expertise isn't at the level he seems to think it is.  Again I think he needs to just focus on his own performance, which has been awful.

And yeah, padding stats in meaningless games, without any pressure, doesn't move the needle for me.  Joey Gallo has a handful of home runs this year; almost none of them have been impactful in any way.  Leaders come through when it counts.  

Like I said I knew this wouldn't be a popular opinion because it's something not easily quantified by analytics.  Sounds like we just agree to disagree.

[Woof Bronzer]

16 hours ago, BH67 said:

There's a difference, however, between saying "the sky is falling" and the equivalent of a frog dissection that too often is directed to stoke such emotions.

This organization has won 1 playoff series in 30 years.  The sky has already fallen.  

[saviking]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If this is him being "ravaged by the effects of physical aging" this org is in a terrible spot. Having your 2 franchise cornerstones both shy of 30 breaking down physically is a nightmare. If they think that's the situation they need to see if they can sneak their way out of some of the Correa deal by moving him. You can't have a broken down Correa and Buxton on your team. Simply can't do it. I'm not convinced this is Correa breaking down, and expect him to be back closer to normal next year, but if he's breaking down already this org is about to have nearly $50 million going to 2 bench players real soon.

DAMN YOU GIANTS AND METS. LOL

The Mets were an ankle away from throwing Carrea's big contract on the top of their big Bonfire. iI would have been epic!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 minutes ago, saviking said:

DAMN YOU GIANTS AND METS. LOL

The Mets were an ankle away from throwing Carrea's big contract on the top of their big Bonfire. iI would have been epic!

The front office would look like geniuses for staying a million miles away from this!

(and one of Royce Lewis and or Brooks Lee would have their natural position to play)

[saviking]

4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The front office would look like geniuses for staying a million miles away from this!

(and one of Royce Lewis and or Brooks Lee would have their natural position to play)

 

4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The front office would look like geniuses for staying a million miles away from this!

(and one of Royce Lewis and or Brooks Lee would have their natural position to play)

I agree. All they did was clog up shortstop when they had two young stars in the waiting, similar to what they did with Gallo. 

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The front office would look like geniuses for staying a million miles away from this!

(and one of Royce Lewis and or Brooks Lee would have their natural position to play)

 

25 minutes ago, saviking said:

 

I agree. All they did was clog up shortstop when they had two young stars in the waiting, similar to what they did with Gallo. 

I mean Royce Lewis has played 26 games this year. Lee just got to AAA (admittedly he could've been promoted earlier). And neither is anywhere near a sure fire major league shortstop. I'm all for young, controllable, top end talent, but Carlos Correa is on a borderline HOF career path. Correa and Gallo are not comparable signings.

[jishfish]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

I mean Royce Lewis has played 26 games this year. Lee just got to AAA (admittedly he could've been called up earlier). And neither is anywhere near a sure fire major league shortstop. I'm all for young, controllable, top end talent, but Carlos Correa is on a borderline HOF career path. Correa and Gallo are not comparable signings.

Agreed with @chpettit19 here.

Lewis was coming off his second ACL surgery, was already questionable to stick at SS before that, and has only been available for 20% of the games this year. At the time, Brooks Lee had played a total of 31 minor league games, with only 2 of them above A+. You can easily argue both prospects best/long term positions are not at SS.

We would have absolutely crushed this front office if we found out they had the opportunity to sign Correa to the deal they did and passed on it. No one is going to argue that it hasn't been a disappointing year for Correa, but you absolutely bet on the proven elite/borderline HOF talent when you can and figure out the prospect pieces later. End of Story.

[saviking]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

I mean Royce Lewis has played 26 games this year. Lee just got to AAA (admittedly he could've been promoted earlier). And neither is anywhere near a sure fire major league shortstop. I'm all for young, controllable, top end talent, but Carlos Correa is on a borderline HOF career path. Correa and Gallo are not comparable signings.

I would agree with you if Correa was a two or 3 year rental. But he will clog that spot for a long, long time. 

[jishfish]

11 minutes ago, saviking said:

I would agree with you if Correa was a two or 3 year rental. But he will clog that spot for a long, long time. 

Or he could move to 3rd Base after 2-3 years like he was planning to do with the Mets.

If Correa starts to wear down or lose lateral mobility, move him to 3B and let Lewis or Lee play SS. If he continues to play an above average SS, then you let Lewis/Lee play 2B/3B and essentially have a three SS infield. Champagne problems.

I promise that having too many guys who can play an above average SS is not an issue.

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

If he is indeed suffering from Plantar fasciitis, it could be a long-term issue for him.  It took me almost 2 years to get rid of it myself which is not unusual for that ailment, and it was quite painful especially in the mornings before your muscles have a chance to stretch out.  That said he should be hitting better than he is.  I don't know.

I also had this and all it took was wearing good shoes and a little PT.  It was gone in just a few weeks.  These players need to start taking care of themselves year long.  I have 2 competitive high level gymnasts and except for an awkward fall (it was horrifying to see) they have never been out with nagging injuries.  I attribute that to the number of hours they condition.  The pounding their bodies take is huge.  A few have retired or been sidelined with back issues,  They practice 5 days a week for 5 hours a time and much of that time is conditioning and I mean tough conditioning.  It strengthens their core to avoid all these crazy things the Twins players are so supsestable to.  Seriously should not incur a 10 day IL trip just running to 1st base.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, saviking said:

I would agree with you if Correa was a two or 3 year rental. But he will clog that spot for a long, long time. 

I agree with @jishfish. Correa is still playing elite defense at short according to my eyes, and he can/will move to 3B when he's no longer the best defender they have at SS.

To me the question is if, as this article seems to suggest, he's actually breaking down, or if this is just a down year and he bounces back. I'm of the belief he bounces back. Lots of good numbers and charts shared here that show almost all these bigtime SS signings the last couple years had a terrible first year, then bounced back. There's something to these guys being human. Correa had a very abnormal offseason, and then, I'd guess, came in looking to have his best season ever to give the finger to the Mets and Giants and some fans.

If I'm wrong, and this is actually a physical decline at the age of 28 the Twins are definitely in trouble. But if I'm right, and he bounces back, he's not "clogging that spot." Borderline HOFers aren't "clogging spots." Nolan Arenado isn't "clogging" 3B in St Louis and forcing them to move their elite young 3B (Jordan Walker). That's not a problem. That's a blessing. And if Correa loses his mobility in 2 or 3 years you move him to 3B where his arm allows him to still be an elite fielder until the end of his 6 guaranteed years, I'd bet. 

Maybe you believe this is the start of his decline. If it is then I agree this is a terrible situation for the Twins. I just don't think it is.