Star Tribune article: Is Twins ownership under new boss Joe Pohlad losing patience in favor of urgency?

[LastOnePicked]

C'mon Joe Kendall Roy Pohlad, shake things up! Too much complacency over failure and mediocrity. What do you stand to lose by firing Baldelli, Tingler and Hopkins? This team likely won't make the playoffs anyways. If anything, you'll generate a little fan interest - AND you'll send a real message that things will be run differently for this organization.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The problem with this team - the rotation and even the bullpen if Stewart and Thielbar are healthy - are good enough to win a series in October. But the offense is what you would expect from a 72-90 team. I don't think the Pohlads have much confidence in the front office to make the right moves at the deadline - last year's mistakes still loom large. I think we see the status quo and hope that Buxton / Correa / Polanco get hot at the same time and give the Twins a big second half. It won't take too much of a hot streak to pull away from Cleveland, IYAM.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

You don’t add to a team through subtraction. You’ve all complained for decades about the pitching sucking and now half the fan base wants to trade Gray simply because he’s a free agent at seasons end. Do the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees etc trade their players at the deadline because they’re an impending free agent?

You don’t subtract from the leagues best pitching lol. What a ridiculous idea. If the offense provides league average production in the second half this is a team that has a chance to make noise in the playoffs if healthy. 

Good points Azviking. The Twins (owner, FO, manager, coaches and players) need to at least act like they have a pair. If a situation is perceived as being real, then it is real in its consequences. 

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am not focused on an immediate fix for a very mediocre team.  We heard the same rhetoric last year about our 1st place team.  Had we not made a short-sighted decision to trade for Mahle, we would have a very good 3B in Steer (cheap) for the remainder of this year and 5 more years.  We could call up CES to play 1st and send Kirilloff to the OF.  With 3B filled we could ask Lewis if he wants to play CF or remain in AAA until a spot opens up.   Obviously, CES is untested at this level but he has been an absolute elite hitter at all levels.  We would also have Cano in our BP had we decided not to buy last year.  

Chief: "blah blah and be forced to use Varland, Kuechel or worse for 2023."

MLR: "why Varland or Kuechel for 24? Couldn't they just sign another FA in 24?"

Chief: "I said for the remainder of 2023."

MLR: "I'm not focused on 2023."

 

Seriously?

 

I

[rv78]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:35 PM, gunnarthor said:

We have a few core players in their prime with nothing to support them.

I think you have this backwards, if you've been following the team this season, the support players are the ones providing the offense on most days. The core players are the problem.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Chief: "blah blah and be forced to use Varland, Kuechel or worse for 2023."

MLR: "why Varland or Kuechel for 24? Couldn't they just sign another FA in 24?"

Chief: "I said for the remainder of 2023."

MLR: "I'm not focused on 2023."

 

Seriously?

 

I

You and I have run into this before.  You are very focused on the right now.  Never mind this team has very little chance to be good unless all of our core players turn around their season in which case Gray would very likely not make any difference in us reaching the playoffs.

I am focused on building a team.  We heard the same we are in first place logic last year.  The cost of "going for it" last year is exceptionally evident.  We would have a very good young player for the next 5+ years at 3B and an ideal prospect for 1B in CES.  Steer might still eventually be traded but we could use him right now and cash in later.  Then, Kirilloff could fill one of the outfield spots.  Camo (the all-star) would still be in our BP and none of this even considers the potential of all the other prospects.

We simply have very different focus in timeframe.  No doubt you are correct we would have to rely on someone other than Gray for the next couple months.  You see that as a very big deal and I see it as a short-term issue.

BTW ... I have consistently said I would not trade Gray unless the return is compelling.  He has been mediocre over his last 10 starts and that will likely dissuade potential buyers unless he is quite good in his remaining starts before the deadline.

And I simply screwed up by not recognizing you were only talking about this year.

[weitz41]

I didn't expect much but neutral statements from Joe Pohlad. That is what I got out of the article. If he wants to take on more payroll maybe, they can trade for a player or two to jump start the offense. That's seems pretty unlikely, payroll addition and players. The offense imo isn't a parttime player away from being ok.

What's with the trade Gray thing lately? The QO pick they would get if he left will likely be a comp A or B round. A comp A pick is a borderline top 100 prospect post draft day, that you have for 7 seasons. If that's not building for the future what is? Not to mention the large bump in bonus pool money. That's a pretty high bar to cross to make sense to trade for or away.

[terrydactyls]

21 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If Gray's season stats are going to regress why is anyone giving value in a trade?

For reference, see Jorge Lopez, trade deadline 2022.

[chpettit19]

23 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

You don’t add to a team through subtraction. You’ve all complained for decades about the pitching sucking and now half the fan base wants to trade Gray simply because he’s a free agent at seasons end. Do the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees etc trade their players at the deadline because they’re an impending free agent?

You don’t subtract from the leagues best pitching lol. What a ridiculous idea. If the offense provides league average production in the second half this is a team that has a chance to make noise in the playoffs if healthy. 

To be fair, the Yankees did trade Jordan Montgomery at the deadline last year for an injured Harrison Bader. 

[terrydactyls]

23 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

The QO pick they would get if he left will likely be a comp A or B round. A comp A pick is a borderline top 100 prospect post draft day, that you have for 7 seasons.

MLB's latest top 100 prospects list (and 50 others who just missed) was released yesterday.  Walker Jenkins was the only Twins' draft pick mentioned.  A comp A or B draft pick doesn't guarantee a top 150 prospect.

[chpettit19]

23 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I know the game has changed but QO is going to be around 20m next year. I'm not sure how many teams are going to want to lose the draft pick and spend that much money on a pitcher who will be 34 next year and probably throws only 130 or so innings. 

Gray is not a 150 ERA+ pitcher. He's been coming back to earth since April and his season stats will, likely, end up reflecting that. His trade value won't be higher than it is today. The Twins claim to have pitching depth and if they can move him and get a something that helps them in the long run, they should. I think they can win the central without Gray.

 

22 hours ago, laloesch said:

I agree.  If he gets a QO in that range (a big if) the Twins might end up hanging on to him for one more year as other teams are likely to be somewhat reluctant to match that AND lose a top 40 draft pick.  There's a lot of doubt on both sides, that's why i kinda think it's better to trade him sooner rather than later.  We shall see.

This isn't quite how the QO works in baseball. The 20M doesn't have to be "matched" by anyone, and the other team doesn't lose a top 40 pick.

Maybe a team wants him for 2 years and 30 mil overall. He can take that deal. Maybe, as some suggest, he just hates Rocco so much he'll do anything to get out of here and would accept a 1 year, 5 mil deal from someone. The 20 mil only matters in that that's what he'd be guaranteed to return to the Twins.

Depending on the team that signs him they could lose their 2nd and 5th highest pick and some international bonus money (if they pay the CBT), but even their 2nd pick isn't top 40. Forfeit their 2nd highest pick and some international bonus money (all the middle teams), but their 2nd picks wouldn't be a top 40 pick. Or they forfeit their 3rd highest pick (teams that receive revenue sharing), and that pick obviously wouldn't be top 40.

[chpettit19]

19 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Of course they should be able to win the central without gray. Just in time to get swept in the playoffs. Is making the playoffs the only thing you value? Who’s this great 5th starter to come up and fill Gray’s spot? It’s not Varland or SWR. What’s the playoff 3 rotation going to look like? 
 

Gray, Lopez, Ryan is a good playoff rotation and capable of winning a playoff series even without a top 10 offense. 
Trade Gray and it becomes a below average playoff rotation with no hopes outside of a sweep

If you trade Gray he's replaced by Ober in that 3 man rotation. That's not really a downgrade, and may actually be an upgrade.

I'm not advocating for trading Gray, but if losing him tanks your entire playoff hopes, your playoff hopes weren't that good to start with. He's a really nice pitcher, but he's not a healthy deGrom, Cole, or prime Scherzer/Verlander. 

The math for trading Gray is pretty simple. They tell teams they need a package worthy of 2 months of Gray, plus additional worth that's equal to, or greater than, the worth of a #30-40 pick in next year's draft. If the Twins get an offer that's worth 2 months of Gray and a top 30-40 pick they should absolutely listen, and probably pull the trigger. If they don't they keep him and tag him.

[strumdatjag]

A STRIB letter to the editor appears today responding to this article.  The fans’ ire is even reaching the opinion pages.  
It could take one or two off seasons, but it’s time to balance this line-up.  More hit-run, stolen bases and younger players.   Look at this year’s all-stars.  The rule changes this year encourage more base runners and less of the home run/strike out approach.    The Bomba Squad era is over.  

[weitz41]

19 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

MLB's latest top 100 prospects list (and 50 others who just missed) was released yesterday.  Walker Jenkins was the only Twins' draft pick mentioned.  A comp A or B draft pick doesn't guarantee a top 150 prospect.

Wallner (comp A 2019), Schobel (comp B 2022). Just recent Twins examples. I'm sure there's other examples from other teams. That's a lot you could lose trading Gray.

[Vanimal46]

8 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Wallner (comp A 2019), Schobel (comp B 2022). Just recent Twins examples. I'm sure there's other examples from other teams. That's a lot you could lose trading Gray.

What if he retires after the season and the QO is null and void? 

[Parfigliano]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why can't the twins get an equivalent or better and younger free agent next year?  Why would we assume they would be forced to use Kuechel or Varland?

Kuechel in the rotation next year is a circle of he!! the Twins DO NOT want to find themselves in.

I hope.

[weitz41]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

What if he retires after the season and the QO is null and void? 

Then he won't have any trade value now and all this is for not.

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Wallner (comp A 2019), Schobel (comp B 2022). Just recent Twins examples. I'm sure there's other examples from other teams. That's a lot you could lose trading Gray.

You have to believe they would not trade Gray unless the offer was of substantially more value than the comp pick.  Why would they trade for equivalent value when they would much rather have Gray for the rest of the year.  Perhaps this is your point.

[Azviking101]

The Twins are a stressful team to watch, and this season has been stressful in new ways than usual but I’m excited for the second half.

This is why- If the offense can wake up a bit, then this is their best chance to break the playoff drought. I’d love to win a series or a few as well but we all recognize we need a glimmer of hope that the curse is over/not real. A playoff win will give us that. 
 

If they fail and the second half is as bad or worse than the first then it should be over for at least part of this regime. 
 

If for some reason they fail and nobody is relieved of their duties then I’ll just have to find some new activities during baseball season. 
 

This is how I’m going into the second half of the season.

[Azviking101]

On 7/13/2023 at 9:57 AM, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, the Yankees did trade Jordan Montgomery at the deadline last year for an injured Harrison Bader. 

Montgomery wasn’t going to factor into their playoff rotation though. They had their top 3 aligned in Cole, Cortes and Severino. Replacing Gray with Ober in the playoffs would be a massacre. 
 

Lopez potentially moves to the top spot

If Gray were to be traded that moves Lopez and Ryan up to 1 and 2 playoff starters instead of 2 and 3 so you’re changing up the entire playoff rotation to hopefully get one extra prospect, likely 2 total but they’ll be acquiring a prospect in the draft for his supplemental pick.

Ober will be on an inning limit and I don’t trust Ryan currently as anything better than a 3 with his lack of quality breaking pitch. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

Montgomery wasn’t going to factor into their playoff rotation though. They had their top 3 aligned in Cole, Cortes and Severino. Replacing Gray with Ober in the playoffs would be a massacre. 
 

Lopez potentially moves to the top spot

If Gray were to be traded that moves Lopez and Ryan up to 1 and 2 playoff starters instead of 2 and 3 so you’re changing up the entire playoff rotation to hopefully get one extra prospect, likely 2 total but they’ll be acquiring a prospect in the draft for his supplemental pick.

Ober will be on an inning limit and I don’t trust Ryan currently as anything better than a 3 with his lack of quality breaking pitch. 

 

 

I don't buy that argument. Nobody is running 3 man rotations in a 7 game series. The Yankees started 4 guys in the ALCS, not 3. So did the Astros.  Phillies and Padres each started 4 guys in the NLCS. Phillies and Astros both started 4 guys in the WS. Phillies started 4 guys in the NLDS. So did the Braves. And Dodgers. And Padres. Cleveland started 4 guys in the ALDS. Yankees did only start 3 guys in that series, but that's the only series that went 4 games that any team didn't start 4 guys. The Yankees had 5 guys they were comfortable with starting in the playoffs. They needed help on offense. So they traded 1 of those 5 guys for offensive help. Severino only made 19 starts last year so he was a question mark in his own right. That Yankee situation is incredibly similar to the Twins current situation.

Why would replacing Gray with Ober be a massacre? That's an extremely aggressive take when Ober has performed every bit as well as Sonny this year. 

Yes, Lopez would move to the top spot. I think you're overrating Sonny Gray by about a mile. He's not any better than Lopez, Ryan, or Ober. Those 4 are all very much on equal ground. The difference would be that Maeda would be the 4th starter instead of Ober. 

Yes, Ober is likely on an innings limit, but if they're going to shut him down for the playoffs I'd argue it's even more reason to trade Gray if you get the right package. If they're not even going to be willing to put their best team on the field in the playoffs they shouldn't really be worrying about the playoffs.

I think we just see Gray, and maybe the rest of the rotation, very differently. And that's fine. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Did you see Souhan's Strib column today? He cites "private conversations with members of the organization" that revealed "deep frustration over the direction of the season". He sys that's why "the atmosphere around the ballpark and in the clubhouse is so tense". This sounds like ownership using the time-honored method of communicating displeasure to management through the sympathetic local columnist. And they're communicating that they aren't happy. 

I this is true, it's a good but not great thing. The gist of the article is that Falvey and Baldelli are under pressure to succeed now (good), have the rest of the year to get it right (not so good), and that failure will have consequences (very good). It will interesting to see if any changes are made or if they hitch their wagon to the current group playing better. I vote for the former but expect the latter. 

[ashbury]

On 7/13/2023 at 5:02 AM, Major League Ready said:

You and I have run into this before.  You are very focused on the right now.  Never mind this team has very little chance to be good unless all of our core players turn around their season in which case Gray would very likely not make any difference in us reaching the playoffs.

I am focused on building a team. 

A general manager has to be focused on many dimensions.  One that I haven't seen mentioned lately is maintaining the revenue stream.  How do you sell tickets (and the goodies like jerseys) after you wave the white flag?  Maybe it's possible but you'd better have a damn solid and proven plan.  And that goes for selling season tickets next off-season, if you leave a sour taste in the fan base's mouth in July this year.  I think fans are much more forgiving (for a while anyway) of players who don't perform, than when the FO pisses them off.

Some will argue (and now I'm not particularly addressing you) that Twins attendance is already in the tank.  I don't believe that is true.  Year over year attendance seems to be up for the Twins.  I scanned recent box scores for attendance and they've been playing to 25K+ houses, which even represents an uptrend.  I believe instead they actually have quite a bit to lose if they are sloppy.

You could easily end up with an Oakland situation for the remainder of the season and on into the next.  I think people totally underestimate what a chronic problem you give yourself once attendance dips below 10K a game.  You don't just snap your fingers and get them back.

Looking only at the prospect haul one might get from Sonny Gray (as the best example) ignores at least 4 things, the other three of which have been addressed here and there in this thread: 1) the value that the player brings to the team's performance getting to the post-season, 2) the value of not entering the post-season with a crippled roster because you were pessimistic, 3) the value of a draft pick if they issue a QO and he rejects it, and 4) the fiscal disadvantage of tanking.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Montgomery wasn’t going to factor into their playoff rotation though. They had their top 3 aligned in Cole, Cortes and Severino. Replacing Gray with Ober in the playoffs would be a massacre. 
 

Lopez potentially moves to the top spot

If Gray were to be traded that moves Lopez and Ryan up to 1 and 2 playoff starters instead of 2 and 3 so you’re changing up the entire playoff rotation to hopefully get one extra prospect, likely 2 total but they’ll be acquiring a prospect in the draft for his supplemental pick.

Ober will be on an inning limit and I don’t trust Ryan currently as anything better than a 3 with his lack of quality breaking pitch. 

 

 

I don't buy that Gray starts game one in a playoff series for this team at all. Not for one second. It'd be Lopez or possibly Ryan 100%. 

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't buy that Gray starts game one in a playoff series for this team at all. Not for one second. It'd be Lopez or possibly Ryan 100%. 

and Ober has been better than Gray over their last 10 starts.

[Major League Ready]

27 minutes ago, ashbury said:

A general manager has to be focused on many dimensions.  One that I haven't seen mentioned lately is maintaining the revenue stream.  How do you sell tickets (and the goodies like jerseys) after you wave the white flag?  Maybe it's possible but you'd better have a damn solid and proven plan.  And that goes for selling season tickets next off-season, if you leave a sour taste in the fan base's mouth in July this year.  I think fans are much more forgiving (for a while anyway) of players who don't perform, than when the FO pisses them off.

Some will argue (and now I'm not particularly addressing you) that Twins attendance is already in the tank.  I don't believe that is true.  Year over year attendance seems to be up for the Twins.  I scanned recent box scores for attendance and they've been playing to 25K+ houses, which even represents an uptrend.  I believe instead they actually have quite a bit to lose if they are sloppy.

You could easily end up with an Oakland situation for the remainder of the season and on into the next.  I think people totally underestimate what a chronic problem you give yourself once attendance dips below 10K a game.  You don't just snap your fingers and get them back.

Looking only at the prospect haul one might get from Sonny Gray (as the best example) ignores at least 4 things, the other three of which have been addressed here and there in this thread: 1) the value that the player brings to the team's performance getting to the post-season, 2) the value of not entering the post-season with a crippled roster because you were pessimistic, 3) the value of a draft pick if they issue a QO and he rejects it, and 4) the fiscal disadvantage of tanking.

This is a good point.  I mentioned in another thread that I have been wondering how much the post season revenue is playing into their current roster management and their deadline strategy.  They bought last year.  IDK if they actually thought they had a good chance or if they were appeasing fans or a combination of both but they weakened the team for long-term including the present.  We would be a lot better right now with Steer, Cano, and I like the chances CES would be a great shot in the arm right now.  It's a fine line because fans are generally speaking short-term focused to the point of negating the chances for sustained success.  Tampa talks about making unpopular decisions as key to their success.  However, could their roster management be part of their attendance problem?

[SwainZag]

On 7/12/2023 at 1:05 PM, Major League Ready said:

I am not focused on an immediate fix for a very mediocre team.  We heard the same rhetoric last year about our 1st place team.  Had we not made a short-sighted decision to trade for Mahle, we would have a very good 3B in Steer (cheap) for the remainder of this year and 5 more years.  We could call up CES to play 1st and send Kirilloff to the OF.  With 3B filled we could ask Lewis if he wants to play CF or remain in AAA until a spot opens up.   Obviously, CES is untested at this level but he has been an absolute elite hitter at all levels.  We would also have Cano in our BP had we decided not to buy last year.  

I still don't think the decision to trade for Mahle was short sighted at all.  It was multiple years of control for 2 prospects who were essentially blocked.  Can we quit pretending like Steer would be an obvious long term replacement at 3B?  It took the Reds 30 games to figure that out, he is going to be a 1B/DH with possible seeing time at a corner OF position.

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This is a good point.  I mentioned in another thread that I have been wondering how much the post season revenue is playing into their current roster management and their deadline strategy.  They bought last year.  IDK if they actually thought they had a good chance or if they were appeasing fans or a combination of both but they weakened the team for long-term including the present.  We would be a lot better right now with Steer, Cano, and I like the chances CES would be a great shot in the arm right now.  It's a fine line because fans are generally speaking short-term focused to the point of negating the chances for sustained success.  Tampa talks about making unpopular decisions as key to their success.  However, could their roster management be part of their attendance problem?

While many fans are more interested in long term, the front office can’t be, because their’s no way they aren’t worried about their jobs.

[nicksaviking]

42 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't buy that Gray starts game one in a playoff series for this team at all. Not for one second. It'd be Lopez or possibly Ryan 100%. 

We can probably even forget about who’s “better”, Gray has the shortest starts. You don’t want that game 1.

[Major League Ready]

3 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I still don't think the decision to trade for Mahle was short sighted at all.  It was multiple years of control for 2 prospects who were essentially blocked.  Can we quit pretending like Steer would be an obvious long term replacement at 3B?  It took the Reds 30 games to figure that out, he is going to be a 1B/DH with possible seeing time at a corner OF position.

I agree Steer was not needed long-term.  However, he would have filled a role now and brought a better return later which is how the Rays do it.  CES on the other hand is an elite offensive prospect who could be a difference makers for several years even if it is as a DH.  Mn, I would like to bring him in right now and send Kirilloff to the OF. 

Any trade for 2 near ready prospects for a player with 1 year and a couple months is short-term focused by definition.  These types of trades always have the potential to sting long-term and that cost is absorbed for immediate gain.  That's ok if the have the prospect capital and a good chance for post season success.  You could argue we had the former but not the later.  IMO, Mahle was never going to be a difference maker, especially in the playoffs.  More importantly, this team, was far from a contender and had numerous injury issues.  Can we quit pretending we gained nothing and the cost was significant?