Nygaard Final Mock v. 3.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

My final attempt at how the first 30 picks will play out. There’s been a lot out there. How much is completely bogus? How much is credible? Who knows!? 

This is how I think the first round will play out. Not how I would pick for each team. 

1.) Pirates – Max Clark, OF, Indiana prep - I wouldn’t take Clark one. I wouldn’t take him second or third either. And maybe not fourth. But I’m not faced with screwing up having a ton of money in a loaded draft. Clark - in a normal year - is a legitimate contender to go 1-1. This year, there are three college players who are simply better options, but the Pirates can’t mess this up and decide to take a really good prospect while also allowing them to take more really good prospects later. 

Previous: Dylan Crews

2.) Nationals – Paul Skenes , RHP, LSU - Having to choose between Skenes and Dylan Crews is like the Nationals having to decide between Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. (They paid Strasburg, not Harper.) Either pick would be a great pick, so the Nationals are going to be winners of this draft either way.

Previous: no change

3.) Tigers – Wyatt Langford , OF, Florida - It would be easy to switch this to Dylan Crews, but I think the Tigers have been focused on Langford for a while now and won’t have to blow up their pool to get him. 

Previous: Wyatt Langford

4.) Rangers - Dylan Crews , OF, LSU - Yes, the Rangers have a pool of less than $10 million. Yes, there’s a rumor out there that Boras wants $10 million for Crews. But, yes, Scott Boras also brokered huge deals between the Rangers and Corey Seager and Marcus Semien recently and may be doing work behind the scenes to get Crews to the biggest market possible while also convincing the Rangers to spend big on his client. The $10 million rumor may just be a tactical move to get exactly what Scott Boras wants.

Previous: Dylan Crews

5.) Twins – Jacob Gonzalez , SS, Mississippi - I’m believing the smoke here. (Or at least convincing myself to believe the smoke to prepare myself for the disappointment.) I usually give myself more time in between my 10-round Twins mock and my final mock than 24. But I’m going to stick with it. I also believe that the Twins will use their savings to get Noble Meyer to fall to their next pick.

Previous: Kyle Teel

6.) A’s – Brayden Taylor , 3B, TCU - It’s too early to take Taylor, Matt Shaw or Jacob Wilson in my opinion, but the A’s make bad decisions.

Previous: Jacob Wilson

7.) Reds – Walker Jenkins, OF, North Carolina prep - Cincinnati will end Jenkins' slide like they ended Cam Collier’s last year.

Previous: Rhett Lowder

8.) Royals - Kyle Teel , C, Virginia - This seems to be a common fit. Salvador Perez can’t play forever - though he may try - and Teel will be a solid regular for many years.

Previous: Thomas White

9.) Rockies - Rhett Lowder , RHP, Wake Forest - I haven’t changed this description for any mock:  The best chance for the Rockies to add pitching is through the draft. Their board should go Skenes, Lowder, Waldrep, Dollander, Floyd… and they take the first one available.

Previous: Hurston Waldrep

10.) Marlins – Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt - Bradfield is going to have a team that believes in his bat and loves his speed and defense so much he will go higher than we see him in most mock drafts. Stealing bases is cool again.

Previous: Max Clark

11.) Angels – Nolan Schanuel , 1B, Florida Atlantic - When the biggest names in the media start to agree on every part of a team’s strategy, there’s got to be a reason for it. Schanuel has one of the most impactful bats in the draft class.

Previous: Jacob Gonzalez

12.) Diamondbacks – Chase Dollander , RHP, Tennessee - Who knows where Dollander ends up. He could be the second pitcher off the board. He could be the sixth or seventh if prep pitchers start to go. His stuff is off the charts… he just couldn’t put it all together this season.

Previous: no change

13.) Cubs – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Florida prep - This is a fit that continues to make too much sense for me. I think Nimmala could end up being the steal of the draft.

Previous: no change

14.) Red Sox – Matt Shaw , SS, Maryland - There’s going to be a run on infielders in the middle of the first round and it’s going to be heavy with college guys. 

Previous: no change

15.) White Sox – Hurston Waldrep , RHP, Florida - The White Sox are another team that I feel like needs to shoot their shot on pitchers. Waldrep dropping to the middle of the first round would be a revelation for them.

Previous: Tommy Troy

16.) Giants – Tommy Troy , SS, Stanford - Seems like a good fit to go relatively local and in a spot that makes a lot of sense.

Previous: Enrique Bradfield Jr

17.) Orioles – Jacob Wilson , SS, Grand Canyon - This is the Orioles favorite demographic in the first round and Wilson should go in this range.

Previous: Colin Houck

18.) Brewers - Chase Davis, OF, Arizona - The Brewers have gone the college route a lot recently and Davis is probably underappreciated for the type of year he had and the data that he put up.

Previous: Brayden Taylor

19.) Rays – Aidan Miller, 3B, Florida prep - The opportunistic Rays have a prospect who was injured and missed the majority of his senior season fall into their laps. 

Previous: Noble Meyer

20.) Blue Jays – Yohandy Morales , 3B, Miami.

Previous: Chase Davis

21.) Cardinals – Ty Floyd , RHP, LSU. 

Previous: Aidan Miller

22.) Mariners – Brock Wilken , 3B, Wake Forest

Previous: Nolan Schanuel
 
23.) Guardians – Colt Emerson, SS, Ohio prep

Previous: no change

24.) Braves – Colin Houck, SS, Georgia prep

Previous: Dillon Head

25.) Padres - Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Virginia prep

Previous: no change

26.) Yankees – Sammy Stafura, SS, New York prep

Previous: no change

27.) Phillies – Charlee Soto, RHP, Florida prep

Previous: no change

28.) Astros - Jack Hurley , OF, Virginia Tech

Previous: no change

29.) Mariners – Blake Mitchell, C, Texas prep

Previous: no change

30.) Mariners – Thomas White, LHP, Massachusetts prep

Previous: Kevin McGonigle

 

Articles and Profiles
Paul Skenes
Walker Jenkins
Max Clark
Noble Meyer
Rhett Lowder
Jacob Gonzalez
Jacob Wilson
Wyatt Langford
Kyle Teel
Chase Dollander

Twins 10-round Mock Draft

Nygaard Mock Draft v.3

Final Consensus Big Board Update (Print it out, cross players off as they are drafted. You won't find a better resource anywhere on the web.)

Consensus Big Board Profiles: 26-50
Consensus Big Board Profiles: 1-25

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[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for all the great work!

[MplsFan]

Draft coverage on this site has been phenomenal as usual.  Thanks for all the work on it.

I will not be thrilled if this is the route the Twins go.  If they do this to go under slot and also get Noble Meyer, I guess I’m ok with that, but this feels like getting too cute to pass on one of the top 5.

If they pass on those top 5 guys, I’d rather they take a college pitcher.  In the Jacob Gonzalez profile thread someone listed the plethora of minor leaguers the Twins have who are similar to this guy.  Seems redundant to what we have.  Go pitching…

[Mike Sixel]

If they want Meyer, take him at five and save a few bucks that way.....

[gman]

Gonzalez with a 30 runner rating. to me grades out as a large slow slugger. I know they love these types, but I hope they don't go there. Since Dollander in your draft goes number 12 that comes out to a first round price of $5.04 million. That's about a 2 million savings off the #5 pick level. Do you think that Gonzalez is going for under $5million to give them extra money to sign Meyer?

[Chris Spencer]

This would be a terrible pick. Could have probably got him at 13. I already don't like this front office much and this would just reinforce what I already think about them. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, gman said:

Gonzalez with a 30 runner rating. to me grades out as a large slow slugger. I know they love these types, but I hope they don't go there. Since Dollander in your draft goes number 12 that comes out to a first round price of $5.04 million. That's about a 2 million savings off the #5 pick level. Do you think that Gonzalez is going for under $5million to give them extra money to sign Meyer?

I think this projection is all about smoke, and not what he'd do.....I don't think anyone but Seth (on this board) has defended this idea. 

[Dman]

If they could manage getting Meyer who has star potential I could be OK with that but the numbers don't add up real well unless Gonzalez gives them a a cool 2M discount as Meyer is projected in some mocks to go around pick 8 which is 5.5M range and the sup 1 pick is 2.4 plus 2M is still only 4.4M.  That is the high point for him to be taken though.  If he were to tumble into the mid teens then that number drops to about 4.4M so I guess it just depends on where the agent thinks the player will go before cutting a deal. 

If that scenario played out you could argue the Twins got two top 10 players in the draft for their 1st round and 1st round supplemental pick.  Considering they were picking at 13 before the lottery that seems like a pretty good outcome.

Still not sure I love the ceiling for Gonzalez as a 1st round pick.  I guess I have a bias toward slower players going high in the draft.  He has above hit/power/arm tools and profiles as an average fielder at short.  He is only a 40 runner though. 

There are a lot of things I think are important to success for hitters at the MLB level and not swinging at pitches out of the zone is a big one.  He has more walks than K's so that bodes well.  Contact skills would be next because without them you get a guy who K's too much and that makes it hard to be successful as you move up.  While not necessary if you have the first two things having some power does round out the profile so if they have that it helps.  I think Gonzalez has those things so I can see how he fits their model.  I think the only thing I don't like about him is the speed and that he can't be a 5 tool player.  Still he has been dropping down boards so I can't be the only one who feels like that as he could go anywhere from pick 10 to late 20's.

Still if they pick up Meyer with the savings on Gonzalez that seems like a win to me.  I mean they could take Meyer at 5 as he is slated to go anywhere from 6 to the mid 20's.  It seems to depend on a teams appetite for risk with Teenage pitchers which seem to be highly volatile.  Meyer throws hard and has the slider the Twins love and if the change works should be a pretty fast mover.  I like the upside of that pick.  Lot's of risk but high reward if it works out.

If the Twins pick Gonzalez and miss out on one of the higher end pitchers I guess I like that pick even less but I do trust the Twins scouting department as I always think they are reaching and they end up with good players every year.

[TopGunn#22]

Gonzalez would be a huge blunder and shines a spotlight on the "trying to outsmart everybody" worry when there is no need to.  If the first 4 go as listed just take a high character, extremely talented guy like Walker Jenkins.  As I've mentioned before, we don't need to sign someone "under slot" at #5.  We have over $14 million to spend on our picks.  Taking one of the "consensus" top 5 and then picking Noble Meyer at #34 would be fantastic.  Don't screw this up!!

[Fatbat]

Yuck. There are so many more ways to get talent. This would be a huge mistake. Can they actually mess up this bad? Lol.

[SarasotaBill]

I've been looking to this draft day since the lottery. Now I'm depressed just thinking the Front Office is going to screw this up. Taking one of the top five is a no brainer. However, it may turn out that the Twins have no brains.

I've watched a lot of Ole Miss baseball and Gonzalez is a nice player but he's not a difference maker.

[SGL]

The best three picks by the Twins in recent memory is Buxton, Kiriloff and Lewis all high school players.  I'm not sure what the fascination is with college bats like Teel and Gonzalez.  The last first round college bat was Lee and before that Sabato.  The jury is out on Lee.  Sabato has been an after failure.  You pick talent and not whether they are college or high school.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think this projection is all about smoke, and not what he'd do.....I don't think anyone but Seth (on this board) has defended this idea. 

This definitely wouldn't be how I do things, starting from the top. I'd draft Skenes. Then I'd draft Crews. Then I'd draft Langford. Then I'd draft Jenkins. Then I'd draft Clark. Then I'd probably draft Lowder, Teel, Meyer and Nimmala (in that order). I'm also high on Shaw and Bradfield.

But I don't have access to bonus demands or medical histories. Both of which would change my order. Oh, Crews wants $10m? That would change things. Clark willing to sign for $5m? That would also change things. Something showed up on an MRI? That could change things.

It's entirely possible that Jenkins isn't on the Twins board if they pass on him. He seems like a perfect fit from my perspective. But if he's a medical red flag, it opens up a world of possibilities. Why is it always Jacob Gonzalez? I have no idea. 

Would people feel differently if the Twins drafted Meyer then Gonzalez instead of Gonzalez then Meyer? 

People hate the idea of Gonzalez (and I'm not thrilled by it). But I really do think any assessment has to wait until, at a minimum, the end of Sunday night and possibly longer. And this reiterates what Dman said earlier: Maybe Gonzalez is willing to sign with the Twins for a huge savings, like $4.5 million. They can tell Meyer's reps that they have $5m waiting for him at #4 or $4.2m waiting for him at #49. And they still have a third pick that they can take someone like Dillon Head.

That's #10, 14 and 30 on the Consensus Big Board. And that's a haul.

[tony&rodney]

A utility infielder at #5 saves money, but we have heard for some time that the top five are the best prospects since Harper and Cole. Only time will tell.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

This definitely wouldn't be how I do things, starting from the top. I'd draft Skenes. Then I'd draft Crews. Then I'd draft Langford. Then I'd draft Jenkins. Then I'd draft Clark. Then I'd probably draft Lowder, Teel, Meyer and Nimmala (in that order). I'm also high on Shaw and Bradfield.

But I don't have access to bonus demands or medical histories. Both of which would change my order. Oh, Crews wants $10m? That would change things. Clark willing to sign for $5m? That would also change things. Something showed up on an MRI? That could change things.

It's entirely possible that Jenkins isn't on the Twins board if they pass on him. He seems like a perfect fit from my perspective. But if he's a medical red flag, it opens up a world of possibilities. Why is it always Jacob Gonzalez? I have no idea. 

Would people feel differently if the Twins drafted Meyer then Gonzalez instead of Gonzalez then Meyer? 

People hate the idea of Gonzalez (and I'm not thrilled by it). But I really do think any assessment has to wait until, at a minimum, the end of Sunday night and possibly longer. And this reiterates what Dman said earlier: Maybe Gonzalez is willing to sign with the Twins for a huge savings, like $4.5 million. They can tell Meyer's reps that they have $5m waiting for him at #4 or $4.2m waiting for him at #49. And they still have a third pick that they can take someone like Dillon Head.

That's #10, 14 and 30 on the Consensus Big Board. And that's a haul.

It only works if a great talent falls ...I think in the deepest draft in memory, you take the best players. We'll see soon....

[jkcarew]

I’ll actually throw up a bit in my mouth if Gonzalez is the pick.

(Which probably increases the odds he’ll be good.)

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, SGL said:

The best three picks by the Twins in recent memory is Buxton, Kiriloff and Lewis all high school players.  I'm not sure what the fascination is with college bats like Teel and Gonzalez.  The last first round college bat was Lee and before that Sabato.  The jury is out on Lee.  Sabato has been an after failure.  You pick talent and not whether they are college or high school.

And three of the most disappointing have been high school guys (Stewart and Gordon at 5, and Covaco at 13.) The Twins passed on college bats like Michael Conforto and Tre Turner when they took Gordon. Oops.

I agree...pick the talent not the current level. But, the talent can be easier to project for the college guys and, if you hit on one, they arrive a lot sooner.

But fwiw, the college bats the Twins would be looking at this year at #5 are a universe removed prospect-wise from Sabato who was taken at the tail end of round 1 (27th) in a draft that was thinner than this year's is supposed to be.

IF (and only if) the Twins think Teel is a mlb catcher, I'd be all over him. Otherwise, I'm hoping for Clark.

[glunn]

38 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

And three of the most disappointing have been high school guys (Stewart and Gordon at 5, and Covaco at 13.) The Twins passed on college bats like Michael Conforto and Tre Turner when they took Gordon. Oops.

I agree...pick the talent not the current level. But, the talent can be easier to project for the college guys and, if you hit on one, they arrive a lot sooner.

But fwiw, the college bats the Twins would be looking at this year at #5 are a universe removed prospect-wise from Sabato who was taken at the tail end of round 1 (27th) in a draft that was thinner than this year's is supposed to be.

IF (and only if) the Twins think Teel is a mlb catcher, I'd be all over him. Otherwise, I'm hoping for Clark.

I agree with you about Teel. An outstanding catcher could provide a long-term foundation for years.

[DocBauer]

Guess I'm going to repeat what I said in the other mock thread and add a little. 

The FO has done a really good job with senior and smaller school kids with projection the past few drafts. They've e even shaved a little $ here and there by doing so, which has allowed a little $ to be spent on guys like Julien. They already have $14+M to spend which is 4th or 5th in total bonus $. So why pass on a top 5-8 player to select someone most sites have in the teens to 20? Save a little here and there after the first 4 picks. You've got a huge bonus pool to play with, don't get cute!

Secondly, with this draft going in to the 30's with 1st round type talent...some say maybe early 40's...why play the under slot game at all??? Grab the BPA and shave a little after the first few rounds here and there if you need to. Again, don't get cute.

[DocBauer]

I keep thinking about the rumors of Crews looking for a $10M bonus. Is anyone going to seriously go a good $2M over slot, even as good as he might become? Twins, Tigers, Pirates, etc, are $14-15+M in bonus $ to spend. So as good as Crews might end up being, any of those teams meeting that demand have $4-5M roughly left to spend on the rest of their entire class.

Sounds a little rich to me.

Is this just Boras trying to manipulate the system to place Crews with a team he/they like, and then sign for $8M-ish? Who knows, maybe they're trying to get to #5, lol. But the Rangers don't even have $10M to spend, right? So what do they do, give him every available $ and blow off the rest of the draft? The only way they could afford Crews would be what, a ML deal right off the bat? Put some escalator clauses year by year to pay him that way?

Would anyone do that for a #1 pick? Or again, is this just to scare teams off they don't want to pick him?

[Heistyman]

56 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Guess I'm going to repeat what I said in the other mock thread and add a little. 

The FO has done a really good job with senior and smaller school kids with projection the past few drafts. They've e even shaved a little $ here and there by doing so, which has allowed a little $ to be spent on guys like Julien. They already have $14+M to spend which is 4th or 5th in total bonus $. So why pass on a top 5-8 player to select someone most sites have in the teens to 20? Save a little here and there after the first 4 picks. You've got a huge bonus pool to play with, don't get cute!

Secondly, with this draft going in to the 30's with 1st round type talent...some say maybe early 40's...why play the under slot game at all??? Grab the BPA and shave a little after the first few rounds here and there if you need to. Again, don't get cute.

The problem is the algorithm they use has Gonzalez in the Top 5 so they are not viewing him as a teens to 20 guy.  Don't get me wrong I'm with you, but I think they are stuck on their internal rankings and will probably end up moving guys ahead of the high schoolers.  I hate when the Twins get cute and elevate a lesser prospect to save some money.  When you factor in the higher risk level of that reach the odds of success decrease significantly.  

[DocBauer]

56 minutes ago, Heistyman said:

The problem is the algorithm they use has Gonzalez in the Top 5 so they are not viewing him as a teens to 20 guy.  Don't get me wrong I'm with you, but I think they are stuck on their internal rankings and will probably end up moving guys ahead of the high schoolers.  I hate when the Twins get cute and elevate a lesser prospect to save some money.  When you factor in the higher risk level of that reach the odds of success decrease significantly.  

I hope you are wrong about any algorithm scenario, OR, they are DEAD ON with theirs.

FWIW, in the recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron stated that from some conversations he's had or heard, the Twins were not adverse to selecting a HS player 1st. 

They did so with Lewis, with projected outstanding results. And were wrong with Cavaco, though a later pick. And while Petty was also a HS choice, he was selected in the 20's. So I don't believe they are adverse to drafting a HS player.

One thing we have to remember is that Sean Johnson is actually the head of amateur scouting. And while I'm sure Falvey and Levine are both plugged in and part of the process, especially the early picks, their primary job revolves around the Twins, and not the draft directly.

Despite a few picks not turning out, a few question marks TBD, Johnson and his staff have had some pretty good drafts in recent years. And I have a hard time buying in to "college" bats first when I see Lewis, Cavaco, and Petty. Lee looks good. Sabato, a late college pick in a weird year, is an unfortunate UGH!

I don't buy in to an exact pattern at this point. Enlow was a "buy high" in the 2nd round, and college arm Canterino the same. Though "plus picks" sometimes confuse me. My point being, I don't know that the Twins actually have any sort of pattern other that not drafting a college pitcher in the 1st round.

I'm just hoping that in one of the best and deepest drafts in YEARS, and with one of the highest $ amounts to spend, they don't suddenly get cute/stupid and try for something that they don't have to do.

When the draft is this deep, they don't have to play games. They can select BPA, and STILL play around a bit with $ on their 5th picks and beyond to free up a few $ more here and there if needed. They've done it before. 

The ONLY reason, considering $ and opportunity to draft ANYONE out of the proposed top 5 should be based on belief in talent and projecatability that we might not see.

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the Twins have Jacob González ranked as their fifth best player, have $14-15mm to spend, and he’s projected as the 15-20th pick / prospect by many lists, then the Front Office needs to figure out a way to get him at pick #34.

my personal preference would be Dollander at five, giving him more money than we would get if he were to go in the 10-15 range many outlets are projecting, but under slot.  And then give all those savings to González.  

 

[Blyleven2011]

I'm just going to wait and then bash or praise the pick ...

Get it right and I agree don't get cute , we have to build our mid market team with high quality  players ...