Injury Woes Over: Alex Kirilloff's Wrist Returns to Full Strength

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season Alex Kirilloff was limited to just 45 games for the Minnesota Twins after again dealing with a nagging wrist issue. After undergoing a much more aggressive bone-shaving surgery, it appears all systems are a go in 2023 for Kirilloff.

 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

During spring training, whether Alex Kirilloff or Jorge Polanco would be ready for opening day with the Minnesota Twins was a constant topic. Byron Buxton was also in that group, but his ability to operate as the designated hitter rather than playing the field gave him an inside track. Neither Polanco nor Kirilloff wound up being healthy in time, and while the former has struggled to stay on the field, it has been the opposite for the latter.

Kirilloff was taken during the 2016 draft and was the last pick by the former front office regime. Pairing him with Royce Lewis, the first selection by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, seemed like an exciting duo to look forward to. While they played on some of the same teams throughout their minor league careers, the friends didn’t get significant run together at the highest level until this season.

Having played the same 45 games he did a season ago, Kirilloff is much more settled at the plate. Of course, that has much to do with a wrist that seems healthy and functioning.

It’s not as though Kirilloff’s production has blown the doors off of projections or that his power stroke is unmatched. He has roughly the same contact-generated stats, but it’s in his discipline at the plate that comfort appears to show. With a much better walk rate this season, waiting for a pitch he can do something with has been vital. He has been willing to take walks, and although the power hasn’t yet come, he’s been a lineup asset.

When Kirilloff's nagging wrist plagued him, he could not drive the baseball. We haven’t seen that flipped on its head this season, but the willingness to spray the ball to the opposite field and wait in counts is a good sign.

What needs to happen next is a level of growth in the power categories. Kirilloff has barreled just 6% of his batted balls, which is on par with where he was a season ago. His exit velocity, both average and max, remains down, although his hard-hit rate is 39% and represents a career-high.

From a plate discipline standpoint, Kirilloff has tightened things up, as shown in his increase in walks. He’s chasing less than 30% of the time for the first season in his career, and his whiff rate is a manageable 10.1%. Patience and selection are to be commended, but being able to pair that with additional drive on the baseball is the next step.

Rocco Baldelli has used Kirilloff in a few different spots this season. While playing first base and both corner outfield positions, his usage often comes at the expense of fellow lefties Joey Gallo or Max Kepler. Kirilloff establishing himself as a consistent regular down the stretch could do wonders for his career and the Twins’ trajectory.

Minnesota has shielded Kirilloff from tough lefties to this point, which is a sensible stance given the outcomes in those spots. Still, the more Kirilloff can find pitches to drive from righties, the better his numbers will continue to be. Bolstering his OPS through on-base prowess was step one, but the growth of his slugging ability needs to come next.

Comfort has returned to a guy that had it stripped from him each of the past two seasons. The further he gets away from pain, Kirilloff’s overall output should improve. He isn’t quite the prospect Minnesota thought they had a few years ago, but he isn’t far off.

Kirilloff might launch something like 20-25 homers while batting right near .300. Finding a way for him to turn into a watered-down Paul Goldschmidt would be a big win for Minnesota. Getting him healthy was part of that process.

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[roger]

Thanks, Ted.

The one thing with AK, and Lewis, that no one is talking about is how little baseball they have played in the past three years.  In 2020, both were at the Alternate site, with AK getting one game in the playoffs.  In 2021, both spent much of the year injured.  Again in 2022, both went down after brief stays with the Twins.  And AK was bothered by his wrist injury during much of his time with the Twins both years.

So I look at this year as a year for both to just play baseball.  Get back in the groove and then next year we will see the players they are.  That will be a lot better if the Manager stops pinch hitting for them when the other team brings in a reliever in the third inning and they end up sitting a good chunk of many games on the bench when their bat really could be needed.  Let AK get some experience hitting against a lefty on the mound.  Cannot tell you how good it felt watching Atlanta trot out the same lineup, with the same batting order, game after game.  

[sftwinsfan]

Some good signs to start, especially if his wrist is finally healthy. He's struggled pretty badly in June but may as well let him get in some experience. His early numbers were a bit inflated by a high average of balls in play. I think in the end he'll be pretty good when it's all said and done if he stays healthy. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Going to have to disagree with this take, just about everything AK did was in May, June was terrible.

May 22/70 - 3 homers, 14 walks - , .314/.448/.486

June 17/77 - 1 homer 6, walks -  .221/.286/.325

I like AK and hope he can turn it around, but he was a contributor to this terrible June baseball the Twins played, not the exception.

Miranda got send down for very similar numbers in April

26/104 - 3 homers, 7 walks, .250/.304/.365

Larnach was worse when he got sent down, but not a whole lot worse.

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Going to have to disagree with this take, just about everything AK did was in May, June was terrible.

May 22/70 - 3 homers, 14 walks - , .314/.448/.486

June 17/77 - 1 homer 6, walks -  .221/.286/.325

I like AK and hope he can turn it around, but he was a contributor to this terrible June baseball the Twins played, not the exception.

Miranda got send down for very similar numbers in April

26/104 - 3 homers, 7 walks, .250/.304/.365

Larnach was worse when he got sent down, but not a whole lot worse.

 

Kirilloff also has missed a ton of baseball the past two years. Despite the slump he has had recently, he still owns a 115 OPS+ and a 44/20 K/BB with a .368 OBP. He certainly hasn't been at his best of late, but hard to nitpick that type of production with the lineup where it's at.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Kirilloff also has missed a ton of baseball the past two years. Despite the slump he has had recently, he still owns a 115 OPS+ and a 44/20 K/BB with a .368 OBP. He certainly hasn't been at his best of late, but hard to nitpick that type of production with the lineup where it's at.

Not sure it is nitpicking, in his last 125 at bats he has 6 doubles, 1 homer, 15 walks, 39 K's  hitting .240 with a OBP of .321

His first 22 at bats were amazing, .409/.536/.773,  9/22, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts

Then he went 1/7 and it was downhill from there, his power dropped, his walks dropped his K's went up.

Like I said I want him to be good, really good and I hope he turns it around. But he hasn't been good in a month and a half.

[MABB1959]

Both Kirilloff and Lewis and other "newcomers" need a good mentor too.  Cruz was a great mentor for Buxton and it showed then and is showing now without a true mentor or leader at all

[TwinkieFan4life]

I'm sure teams have figured out to pitch him carefully.  As bad as guys like Buck, Gallo, and Kepler have been, I wouldn't let Royce or AK beat me.  Who is protecting these guys Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers?

[chinmusic]

I've wondered for a while if his wrist really is OK.

Drop off in power is reminiscent of last year.

[curt1965]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

I've wondered for a while if his wrist really is OK.

Drop off in power is reminiscent of last year.

AK will be just fine. He has hit a lot of balls right at someone. At the end of the year, he’ll have the best B.A. on the Twins.

[chinmusic]

4 minutes ago, curt1965 said:

AK will be just fine. He has hit a lot of balls right at someone. At the end of the year, he’ll have the best B.A. on the Twins.

Not as confident as you are, but I'll be thrilled if you're right.

[gman]

If the Twins were heading to the World Series, I'd be OK with pinch hitting for him. As it is, its better for the future if he gets his ab's against all types of pitchers and all situations. Of the 17 hits the Twins got in the Atlanta series, Kirilloff got 25%.

[Guest]

Interesting to see the comparison, thanks.  Watching AK's power numbers and BA drop over the last few weeks, I had been thinking it's about time for him to hit the IL for awhile because the wrist was bothering him.  Will keep fingers crossed.  AK should have a terrific future if he stays healthy.

[jorgenswest]

His average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel rate and hard hit rate are virtually the same as Miranda’s this year. They are both similar profile to Solano but Solano is a notch up in each of those categories. Can the Twins build on the strengths of these two batters who tend towards contact or will they they try to push them towards more power?

I have been wondering about their ability to develop players with contact rate as ann area of strength since I saw how Austin Martin responded last year. I justified that Arraez turned out well but now he is really thriving this year and was likely under appreciated by the Twins management.

They need to help Kirilloff build on his strengths and if that is a good line drive high contact rate hitter there should be a place in the line up for that hitter.

[DocBauer]

I won't pretend to be an expert, but I think power is not just the physical ability to hit a ball hard, but it's also partially experience and confidence. 

As pointed out, he's missed just a ton of time the last couple of years. The fact that his K and BB numbers have improved so much indicate growth as a hitter. Now, what I think needs to happen, is the recognition of a ball to drive vs maybe being "too cautious or selective" in his AB. Combined with that is the "feel" and confidence of "I got this"! To me its a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. The more you hit, and hit hard, the greater your confidence. The more you feel confident, the more you are aggressive and barrell up on a ball and drive it.

To me, he's on the right path. It's just getting enough time and experience to put it all together. 

[stringer bell]

I wouldn't think that Kirilloff's injury woes are over. If he can get through the season with a minimum of discomfort, then he might be able to consider the injury as in the past. I do wonder if the strength in the wrist is such that he can't drive the ball as he did previously. So far any discomfort he has experienced is not keeping him out of the lineup and that is huge progress.

As pointed out above, AK's hitting for the month of June is subpar. Walks are down, strikeouts are up and hits have been scarce with extra base hits pretty rare. I think the lack of hard-hit balls and extra base hits might be what Alex is at this stage in his delayed major league career. He has just not done much to balls on the inside of the plate that many lefty hitters punish, but it might be an adjustment he can make in the second half of this season. 

I don't think Kirilloff has been underused so far since he was recalled. He has been spotted against lefties and frankly hasn't looked much better than any of the other suspect left handed hitters. I still expect him to flourish both in general and against southpaw pitching as the season continues as long as his wrist cooperates.

AK will turn 26 in the off season and his development has clearly been delayed by injury. If he is past the wrist miseries, I still believe he will be a far above average hitter, if not elite. His approach is superior to almost the entire team. As with the entire team, it is exhausting to be patient, but I think Alex Kirilloff will be worth the wait.

[joefish]

I miss the power. But that may be an adjustment that I need to make. Not him.

His batting average is good. He seems to be a victim of bad strikes called against him

 

[Blyleven2011]

12 hours ago, roger said:

Thanks, Ted.

The one thing with AK, and Lewis, that no one is talking about is how little baseball they have played in the past three years.  In 2020, both were at the Alternate site, with AK getting one game in the playoffs.  In 2021, both spent much of the year injured.  Again in 2022, both went down after brief stays with the Twins.  And AK was bothered by his wrist injury during much of his time with the Twins both years.

So I look at this year as a year for both to just play baseball.  Get back in the groove and then next year we will see the players they are.  That will be a lot better if the Manager stops pinch hitting for them when the other team brings in a reliever in the third inning and they end up sitting a good chunk of many games on the bench when their bat really could be needed.  Let AK get some experience hitting against a lefty on the mound.  Cannot tell you how good it felt watching Atlanta trot out the same lineup, with the same batting order, game after game.  

My thoughts exactly  , keep him healthy  and hopefully he'll be even healthier next season  , I'm sure he's not 100 percent recovered yet  and royce Lewis either ...

The more they play the stronger they will become  , I have patience  ...

[Doctor Wu]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

My thoughts exactly  , keep him healthy  and hopefully he'll be even healthier next season  , I'm sure he's not 100 percent recovered yet  and royce Lewis either ...

The more they play the stronger they will become  , I have patience  ...

Good point. Like others have said, both Kiriloff and Lewis haven't played much during the past 3 years. Hopefully, both players are healthy. Kiriloff's wrist was a huge concern for many of us over the offseason, some people even wondering if he would even play again. Well, so far so good, even after a very disappointing month of June. But yeah, patience is the word. Except that this team is expected by many fans to win the division and advance in the playoffs, and right now it's not looking good for those goals. With so many veterans underperforming, we need a healthy and productive Kiriloff in the lineup. 

[Karbo]

17 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not sure it is nitpicking, in his last 125 at bats he has 6 doubles, 1 homer, 15 walks, 39 K's  hitting .240 with a OBP of .321

His first 22 at bats were amazing, .409/.536/.773,  9/22, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 6 walks, 5 strikeouts

Then he went 1/7 and it was downhill from there, his power dropped, his walks dropped his K's went up.

Like I said I want him to be good, really good and I hope he turns it around. But he hasn't been good in a month and a half.

I am so sick of the term "drive the ball". I maintain the most important part of hitting is getting on base, and being able to run well enough to come around to score. What i keep hearing is drive the ball and then start seeing these guys swing out of their shoes trying to go yard. Where has that gotten this team? On pace to set a new strikeout record. How many runs can score when you strikeout? As hard as these pitchers throw these days, just meeting the ball square gives a guy a decent chance for success. IMHO, that's what the coaches should be stressing!

[jccracraft]

Kirilloff and Lewis are basically rookies, as is Julien. They should not be leading the team. If Bux and Correa were even average (we all knew Kep and Gallo were what they are), I think we'd all be fairly pleased with the young guys at this point, and not focusing on them as much.

[joefish]

When our highlight reel starts with a minor leaguer hitting a double I'd say we need to shake something up.  

[chpettit19]

I know he adjusted his swing a little this offseason/spring to account for his wrist, so it may just be that, and not his wrist hurting again, but he's making worse contact this year than in the 2 previous years when we know his wrist was hurting him for large chunks of the time. I'm not convinced the wrist is healthy, or that he fully trusts it. His swings look far less aggressive now, and he's simply not hitting the ball well. Barrell%, average exit velo, max exit velo, and hard hit% all at career lows in pretty similar batted ball amounts. If this is "full strength," Kirilloff isn't the answer, unfortunately.