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During spring training, whether Alex Kirilloff or Jorge Polanco would be ready for opening day with the Minnesota Twins was a constant topic. Byron Buxton was also in that group, but his ability to operate as the designated hitter rather than playing the field gave him an inside track. Neither Polanco nor Kirilloff wound up being healthy in time, and while the former has struggled to stay on the field, it has been the opposite for the latter.
Kirilloff was taken during the 2016 draft and was the last pick by the former front office regime. Pairing him with Royce Lewis, the first selection by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, seemed like an exciting duo to look forward to. While they played on some of the same teams throughout their minor league careers, the friends didn’t get significant run together at the highest level until this season.
Having played the same 45 games he did a season ago, Kirilloff is much more settled at the plate. Of course, that has much to do with a wrist that seems healthy and functioning.
It’s not as though Kirilloff’s production has blown the doors off of projections or that his power stroke is unmatched. He has roughly the same contact-generated stats, but it’s in his discipline at the plate that comfort appears to show. With a much better walk rate this season, waiting for a pitch he can do something with has been vital. He has been willing to take walks, and although the power hasn’t yet come, he’s been a lineup asset.
When Kirilloff's nagging wrist plagued him, he could not drive the baseball. We haven’t seen that flipped on its head this season, but the willingness to spray the ball to the opposite field and wait in counts is a good sign.
What needs to happen next is a level of growth in the power categories. Kirilloff has barreled just 6% of his batted balls, which is on par with where he was a season ago. His exit velocity, both average and max, remains down, although his hard-hit rate is 39% and represents a career-high.
From a plate discipline standpoint, Kirilloff has tightened things up, as shown in his increase in walks. He’s chasing less than 30% of the time for the first season in his career, and his whiff rate is a manageable 10.1%. Patience and selection are to be commended, but being able to pair that with additional drive on the baseball is the next step.
Rocco Baldelli has used Kirilloff in a few different spots this season. While playing first base and both corner outfield positions, his usage often comes at the expense of fellow lefties Joey Gallo or Max Kepler. Kirilloff establishing himself as a consistent regular down the stretch could do wonders for his career and the Twins’ trajectory.
Minnesota has shielded Kirilloff from tough lefties to this point, which is a sensible stance given the outcomes in those spots. Still, the more Kirilloff can find pitches to drive from righties, the better his numbers will continue to be. Bolstering his OPS through on-base prowess was step one, but the growth of his slugging ability needs to come next.
Comfort has returned to a guy that had it stripped from him each of the past two seasons. The further he gets away from pain, Kirilloff’s overall output should improve. He isn’t quite the prospect Minnesota thought they had a few years ago, but he isn’t far off.
Kirilloff might launch something like 20-25 homers while batting right near .300. Finding a way for him to turn into a watered-down Paul Goldschmidt would be a big win for Minnesota. Getting him healthy was part of that process.
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