Carlos Correa is the Twins' Biggest Problem

[AaronRendahl]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Actually, it's not. The league leaders in GIDP almost always match Correa's profile. Guys with a lot of at bats, who aren't particularly fast, who hit the ball hard enough for the infield to turn two, who aren't the biggest strikeout offenders...

And the thing is, if you do all those things, a lot of the balls those guys hit go through the infield and over the infielders as line drives. Here's your list of career leaders in GIDP. I'll be glad if Correa ends up on this list:

While I agree that a large number of double plays aren't necessarily as bad as the OP suggested, I'm afraid this list is full of selection bias. These are hitters who DID have hits "go through the infield and over the infielders as line drives," or somehow made up for their double plays in other ways, and so had long careers as a result (and therefore their count of DP is high). You list doesn't have players who also hit into lots of double plays but DIDN'T also have the corresponding successful hits, and so had shorter careers and their count of DP is lower and they're not on this list.

This season, anyway, Correa is unfortunately in the second group. :(

So I'll be glad if Correa ends up on this list too -- but if he does, that'll be because he does have successful hits in addition to the double plays and has a long career. (Though I suppose he could also make the list because the FO/manager keeps playing him anyway, which is entirely too plausible...)

 

[John Belinski]

If Rocco would not keep batting him in 3 or 4 spot the Twins would have scored more runs. Time after time  Correa kills rallies by hitting into double plays.

Rocco should be replaced or Twins will never be in playoffs.

[Fred]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Then how about saying, "For starters, Correa leads the AL in double plays grounded into, and he's already approaching his career high"?

That actually tells me that he's underperforming his expectations. Saying that he's leading the league while batting in the middle of the order doesn't tell me that -- the league leader is almost always in the middle of the order. 

I'm willing to bet that he didn't have to tell you that Correa is underperforming as a hitter. Pretty much an established fact. Add that to GIDP, and it points out a real problem.

[Fred]

3 hours ago, Sparky55 said:

I think we have a whole team of 7 8 and 9 spot hitters

I almost choked when Atlanta had a guy batting 8th with an above .300 average and over .800 OPS. It pointed out how bad the Twin's hitting is compared to a World Series contender.

[PDX Twin]

From the Twins' Web site:

Kind of tells it all:

1. Correa has been terrible at the plate this year.
2. No one who has been less terrible has enough PA to qualify.

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Because not every middle of the order hitter is at the top of the leaderboards for grounding into double plays. There may be more middle of the order hitters on that leaderboard but that doesn't make it any less significant when a particular player is leading all of baseball in that category. That's just a small piece of info that alludes to how many rallies he's killed, and other examples of him not being clutch are referred to later.

It's pretty hard to hit into a DP with no one on base, or when there are already 2 outs.  It's slightly less hard (but still hard) to hit into a DP when there is not a runner at 1B.  Therefore, the players most likely to hit into DPs are hitters who bat behind guys who get on base a lot, but mostly via walks and singles; that's a pretty spot-on description of someone hitting in the 3 or 4 spot, IMO.

What would be more interesting to me than total gross GIDP is GIDP rate.  How many times has Correa produced a GIDP when batting with a runner on first and 0/1 outs?  How does that number compare to the rest of the league?

[roger]

8 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the OP:

...For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup.... 

------------------------------------

Actually, it's not. The league leaders in GIDP almost always match Correa's profile. Guys with a lot of at bats, who aren't particularly fast, who hit the ball hard enough for the infield to turn two, who aren't the biggest strikeout offenders...

And the thing is, if you do all those things, a lot of the balls those guys hit go through the infield and over the infielders as line drives. Here's your list of career leaders in GIDP. I'll be glad if Correa ends up on this list:

 

Interesting.  Yet all those guys had very long careers.  Better comparison would be how many GIDP he has as a percentage of at bats, both this year and career.  Looking at Aaron, looks like a bit over 2%, whereas Molina is probably a point higher.  Guessing Correa may be over 4% this year, but that is both a guess and small sample.

If I understand the numbers, Aaron had about 14 GIDP per season for 23 years.  Isn’t that how many Correa has in half a season?  Tells me this list isn’t a good comparison.

[Nine of twelve]

6 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Correa was a long term mistake. 

Maybe, maybe not. We won't know until the contract is up.

[stringer bell]

9 hours ago, roger said:

No, Buxton needs to be shut down (placed on the IL) until he can play baseball.  That means batting and playing center field.

I very much fear that day will never come. If he had knee surgery in October and eight months later, he can't play center field, I think it is more likely he'll never play center field again than he'll be back out there five or more days per week.

[stringer bell]

I agree with a couple of criticisms of Carlos Correa. He doesn't bust it down the line on ground balls which is a bad example to the non-established players on the club. Most players don't run as hard as they can on routine grounders, maybe they are conserving energy or trying to avoid injury, but it's not a good look. Correa is also really slow home to first, with a big swing where his momentum is pointing away from first base, which contributes to his high GDP rate. 

Correa's attempts to be a team leader are fine, but he has to back it up on the field and aside from a couple of big late-inning homers, he has hurt the team in those opportunities. He's only 28 years old and like both Buxton and Polanco, seems to play like he's much older. Less than a week ago, I saw he was still wearing a back belt in the dugout--perhaps that injury and his plantar fasciitis have hindered him so that he's been this bad. 

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, mnfireman said:

So now its Correa? It has been, in no particular order, Kepler, Rocco, Pagan, Buxton, Larnach, Popkins, Falvey, Levine, Lopez, Lopez, Solano, Castro, Miranda and the trade of Arraez according to the TD staff and users. At least we know where to start to fix the problem.

 

CC - Kepler - Buxton are obviously root problem ………all the other stuff is just noise. Polanco out over 50% of the time doesn’t help!! Gallo is being Gallo - no surprise. On paper, based on career histories, we were a well put together roster! Baldelli doesn’t bat - FO isn’t striking out at record setting numbers.

Pitching has held up - new guys are OK - core of Kepler - CC -  Buxton are what’s dragging us down!!!

Miranda sucked - Gallo experiment has not been a positive - Shift elimination has dropped Kepler’s average 35 points instead of bumping it 35 points - CC & Buxton have flashes of ability every 6-10 games. Vazquez has disappeared. I don’t see how any of this is FO problem.

DFA or bench Kepler - DFA or bench Gallo - CC & Buxton to the IL until after the Break or until end of July.

Change is needed.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I agree with a couple of criticisms of Carlos Correa. He doesn't bust it down the line on ground balls which is a bad example to the non-established players on the club.

Less than a week ago, I saw he was still wearing a back belt in the dugout--perhaps that injury and his plantar fasciitis have hindered him so that he's been this bad. 

I strongly believe that he IS busting it down the line as fast as he can but is being slowed considerably by the PF.

[Squirrel]

21 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Left unmentioned so far are the reports that Correa supposedly took Miranda under his wing in the off-season—and Miranda promptly turned into a bad AAA player.

That actually didn’t happen. It was the plan but with all the contract hoopla they didn’t really spend the time together that they planned

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Something on the coaching staff could be the problem, but there's no tangible evidence we can measure on that. Correa's numbers have been terrible and they come in the biggest spots.

Didn't the team hire a new trainer and/or physical therapist during the offseason? That doesn't seem to have produced any noticeable results yet either. 

[rv78]

21 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Best case scenario - it’s just foot pain and Correa returns to superstar form

Unfortunately, he's never been much more than a slightly above average hitter. Great Glove = Yes). The FO has ignored offensive numbers in almost everyone they have spent big money on and it shows. Correa was a DP machine last season too, and the FO ignored that as well. Most times you get exactly what a player is and that's not the same as something you want him to be. The biggest part of the lineup, Correa, Kepler, Gallo, Buxton, Vazquez, Taylor have NOT been productive and outside of Vazquez the other 5 have never really been that good offensively except for a season or two in their entire careers. I said at the beginning of the season this team would need to win a lot of low scoring games to be successful. Many believed the bullpen was over-looked during the off season. The offense, after trading away Arraez became the weakest part of the team. 

[NotAboutWinning]

Correa is not the team’s biggest problem. His offensive production is below his career norms, but he is still providing outstanding defense. Sadly, Buxton is the biggest problem (on a long list of problems). DH is an offense only position and must produce. A DH batting .200 is not acceptable. And on top of that, batting 2, 3 or 4. Slot a .300 hitter into that position and how many of the 2-0 and 2-1 losses turn into wins?

[specialiststeve]

22 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Something on the coaching staff could be the problem, but there's no tangible evidence we can measure on that. Correa's numbers have been terrible and they come in the biggest spots.

The "tangible" evidence IS in the numbers that the team continues to provide. Crystal clear evidence actually. 

[madtowntwin]

Igniter. Catalyst. Spark Plug. Players whose at bats serve as inspiration. Whose plate appearances provide blue print and fires up those that follow. Carew. Molitor. Arraez. Puckett. Mauer. Independence Day & All Star Break approach. The Twins are a firecracker without fuse right now. Sadly, there are few players who are being paid to be igniters who are far from combustible right now. Happy 4th of July everybody.

[Aggies7]

He’ll catch fire around august 25 when the twins are 10 games out and the stat heads will tell us his numbers werent that bad for the season 😉 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

22 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 

5.  Coaching staff.  If they aren't part of the problem then coaches/managers truly are meaningless.  

Interesting statement. I'm not sure I agree, but it is something to think about. There is some sort of a correlation.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 minutes ago, madtowntwin said:

Igniter. Catalyst. Spark Plug. Players whose at bats serve as inspiration. Whose plate appearances provide blue print and fires up those that follow. Carew. Molitor. Arraez. Puckett. Mauer. Independence Day & All Star Break approach. The Twins are a firecracker without fuse right now. Sadly, there are few players who are being paid to be igniters who are far from combustible right now. Happy 4th of July everybody.

Great analogy.

[T.O.]

I was sorry to see Correa go after last year but was against the Twins paying his demanded price. No one is worth $33,000,000. When they did re-sign him I was hopeful but skeptical.
It takes a very special person to not let mental pressure get in the way of the expectations that EVERYONE has on a player in that situation. The higher the salary and longer the contract the more the pressure. Maybe Correa is not that special (and rare) person.
 

[bespenson]

When was the last time Corre had an eye exam. Seriously! He doesn't seem to see pitches well.

[IndianaTwin]

19 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It's pretty hard to hit into a DP with no one on base, or when there are already 2 outs.  It's slightly less hard (but still hard) to hit into a DP when there is not a runner at 1B.  Therefore, the players most likely to hit into DPs are hitters who bat behind guys who get on base a lot, but mostly via walks and singles; that's a pretty spot-on description of someone hitting in the 3 or 4 spot, IMO.

What would be more interesting to me than total gross GIDP is GIDP rate.  How many times has Correa produced a GIDP when batting with a runner on first and 0/1 outs?  How does that number compare to the rest of the league?

It's a pretty small sample size, just 56 plate appearances. I'm assuming that his 14 GIDP in those situations is well above the average, but again, SSS. It's SSS on this too, but the same splits page lists his sOPS+ as 98, which means that his OPS within 2 percent of league average in this situation. For what it's worth, his tOPS+ is 115 in that situation, which means that he's hitting 15 percent better in those situations than he is in his plate appearances as a whole. 

I agree that Correa is woefully underperforming expectations. I just don't find GIDP a particularly helpful stat. 

[Cody Pirkl]

3 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

The "tangible" evidence IS in the numbers that the team continues to provide. Crystal clear evidence actually. 

There aren't numbers we can point to. These are Major League hitters, they have the ability to make their own decisions and they're the ones executing. I do believe the philosophy of the organization has something to do with the way the offense has struggled, but we can't know to what degree that's been a factor. If someone like Carlos Correa doesn't like what the hitting coaches are telling him, he's not going to get cut for choosing not to follow that plan.

[rv78]

Looking at his 8 year career to date, Correa has been an All-Star 2 times and has 1 Gold Glove. If anyone thinks he's a superstar and is worthy of superstar money, which he got, they are fools. Buxton is even worse with only 1 All-Star appearance and 1 Gold Glove, How about Kepler, NONE. Gallo? 2 time All-Star and 2 Gold Gloves. Polanco? 1 time All-Star. Thus lies the problem. Expecting your main core of players to play like All-Stars when they very seldom if ever have been one is beyond foolish. The FO got exactly what these players are... over-rated, and they are the ones guilty of turning a blind eye to what they really are. Here's the picture we were painted by the FO and the Twins organization, Correa will lead the team since he is the best SS in all of MLB. We got a steal when the Giants and Mets backed out. Buxton will be healthy and Taylor was signed to be a backup, just in case he got injured, even though they had no intention of playing Buxton there. Then we were told using him in the DH spot will keep him in the lineup the entire season even though his last 2 injuries were not from playing defense. Ha Ha! With the shift being banned Kepler will hit better since more ground balls will make it through the right side of the infield, since Kepler doesn't know how to hit the ball to all fields. Gallo will regain his form from his successful Texas seasons. He'll provide super defense at 1st base and in the outfield and his strikeouts won't hurt the team since he can hit an occasional monster HR. Polanco will recover from his injury and will be in the lineup shortly after the start of the season. He's now been a non-factor for half the year. Vazquez will be the primary catcher pushing Jeffers to part-time duty and guess what, now we've got the better hitting catcher not playing due to Vazquez being the veteran. How has Rocco handled all of these situations? Has he held any of these guys accountable before his rant after the Braves series? He was quoted as saying "That's not good baseball". Has he finally opened his eyes? Is he finally seeing what we the fans have seen for the last 2 plus years? Waiting for 2 plus years to start holding the players accountable for poor play is terrible leadership. How does a player get confidence when his Manager doesn't play him everyday? Or pulls him for a pinch hitter every time an analytical number says something different? Right now, Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Vazquez and Gallo all should be on the bench or DFA'd for anyone who can play better. Otherwise all the ranting in the world by the incapable Manager doesn't mean crap.

[twinstalker]

On 6/29/2023 at 7:51 AM, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

I think his plantar faciitis is affecting his hitting.   I have had pf, and it SUCKS.

So have I.  If it's affecting his batting, he wouldn't be able to play in the field.  Next theory.

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

So have I.  If it's affecting his batting, he wouldn't be able to play in the field.  Next theory.

So have I. It affected my mountain hiking.  It did not affect my slow-pitch beer-league career.

[specialiststeve]

On 6/30/2023 at 12:02 PM, Cody Pirkl said:

There aren't numbers we can point to. These are Major League hitters, they have the ability to make their own decisions and they're the ones executing. I do believe the philosophy of the organization has something to do with the way the offense has struggled, but we can't know to what degree that's been a factor. If someone like Carlos Correa doesn't like what the hitting coaches are telling him, he's not going to get cut for choosing not to follow that plan.

Completely disagree, 

The evidence of how the hitters approach their AB's is terrible as evidenced by their results. Fact. 

If you listened to the hitters after the all players meeting it was about "accountability" .... Baldelli talked about Popkins giving them the numbers and the players have to use the numbers and the info to be better... WHAT? 

Numbers are just that .... that is NOT coaching. Coaching is actually looking at the AB's.. figuring out what is not working and changing to make it better... Not holding the coaching staff accountable for what there job is... is not good. Players need to be held accountable as do the coaches.