Ranking the Twins' First-Round Picks In the Falvey-Levine Era

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have made nine first-round picks since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over at the top of the organization. How do those players rank at this point in their careers?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

MLB draft analysis from one year to the next can be challenging because franchises rarely draft in the same position from one year to the next. Also, some draft classes are stronger than others, and teams can try to save money with their first-round pick to use in later rounds. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have tended to prefer specific player types with their first-round picks, and some of those players have fared better than others to this point in their professional careers. 

There is a hierarchy in the Twins front office that might cloud who is responsible for drafting players. Falvey is ultimately responsible for everything in the organization. Still, his role in the draft is minimal, other than setting the team's focus on what they look for as an organization. The men at the organization's top can get the credit or blame for drafts while having minimal to do with the process. The team's scouting director Sean Johnson has the ultimate say on who they take in the draft, and the credit/blame should reside with him. 

9. Keoni Cavaco, IF
13th Overall Pick in 2019
Evaluators viewed Cavaco as a reach when the Twins picked him, and the club's faith in him has yet to be rewarded. He began his career as a shortstop, moved to third base in 2022, and has only played first base this season. He's been slightly below the average age of the competition at each level, but he has never put it together on either side of the ball. In over 220 minor-league games, he has hit .217/.273/.338 (.610) with a 318-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Earlier this week he was placed on the developmental list.

8. Aaron Sabato, 1B/DH
27th Overall Pick in 2020
The pandemic greatly impacted the 2020 MLB Draft, with clubs unable to scout players in the months leading into the draft. Minnesota took Sabato because his power was seen as a superior tool, with a .698 SLG in college. Sabato has posted a .776 OPS in three professional seasons with over 140 strikeouts per season while never hitting more than 22 home runs. He provides little to no defensive value and has been inconsistent at the plate. This pick looks like a swing and a miss by the Twins. 

7. Brent Rooker, DH
35th Overall Pick in 2017
Rooker looked like a big-league bust before a hot start in Oakland this year. In 64 games, he is hitting .255/.356/.491 (.846) with 12 doubles, 13 home runs, and a 142 OPS+. Minnesota included Rooker with Taylor Rogers in the trade for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina. The Padres dealt him to the Royals last season, and the A's claimed him off waivers this winter. Now in his age-28 season, he's getting an extended look at the big-league level for the first time in his career. Following his hot start, he has cooled off significantly in recent weeks. 

6. Noah Miller, SS
36th Overall Pick in 2021
Miller is still very early in his professional career, so there is time for him to move up this list eventually. The Twins took Miller with their second pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of high school in Wisconsin. In three professional seasons, Miller has been more than two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. He's been used almost exclusively at shortstop with a half dozen appearances at second base. Across 186 games, he has hit .212/.323/.288 (.612) with 33 extra-base hits. During the 2023 season, Miller has faced older pitchers in all but two plate appearances. The Twins have faith that he will eventually be able to hold his own against older competition. 

5. Chase Petty, SP
26th Overall Pick in 2021
Petty made two appearances in the Twins organization before the team traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray. In 2023, Petty is pitching at High-A, where he is over three years younger than the average age. He has allowed four earned runs (1.50 ERA) through six starts with a 26-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's a long way from the big leagues, and a lot can go wrong with a pitching prospect before their debut. The Reds have seen some success stories in developing hard-throwing high school pitchers, and they hope Petty can join this group. 

4. Trevor Larnach, OF
20th Overall Pick in 2018
The Twins drafted Larnach after he was one of the critical hitters on a powerhouse Oregon State team that won the College World Series. He posted tremendous numbers during his first full professional season between High-A and Double-A on his way to being named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year. In 126 games, he hit .309/.384/.458 (.842) with 30 doubles and 13 home runs. He was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but he hasn't put it all together at the big-league level, with a .690 OPS in 177 games. He crushes fastballs but struggles with breaking pitches, so he's struggled to stick with the Twins. 

3. Matt Wallner, OF
39th Overall Pick in 2019
Wallner fits the type of player this front office typically targets in the draft with college experience and strong power potential. He is the team's reigning Minor League Player of the Year after posting a .953 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last season. During the 2023 season, the Twins have left him in the minors despite solid numbers with the Saints. In 49 games, he is hitting .298/.414/.547 (.961) with 17 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. Wallner's offensive profile has a lot of swing and miss, but when he makes solid contact, the ball travels a long way. Minnesota must make room for him at the big-league level at some point in 2023. 

2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B
1st Overall Pick in 2017
Lewis can provide the most value out of any player on this list, especially now that he is finally healthy. He's missed parts of the last two seasons due to ACL surgery. Since returning, he has provided some critical hits for the Twins while also learning a new defensive position. In 16 games, he went 16-for-57 (.281 BA) with a .709 OPS and 20 strikeouts. It will be interesting to see how the Twins utilize Lewis in the coming years. Carlos Correa will likely get most of the reps at shortstop, and Lewis prefers to play infield. Is second base his eventual home if the team moves on from Jorge Polanco?

1. Brooks Lee, SS
8th Overall Pick in 2022
Lee entered the season as a consensus top-50 prospect after a pro debut where he posted an .839 OPS in 31 games. During the 2023 season, the Twins sent him back to Double-A, the level he finished at last season. He's hit .270/.348/.425 (.773) with 23 doubles, four home runs, and a 48-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 57 games. He seems unlikely to play shortstop at the big-league level, but he continues to play there in Double-A. Even with a slow start, Lee still has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Twins for a long time.

How would you rank the team's first-round picks since 2017? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[HrbieFan]

Corbin Carroll would sure look good on this list! 

[arby58]

I'd flip Lee and Lewis at this point. Lewis is a significant contributor at the major league level, and Lee isn't exactly setting the world on fire at AA. That said, I expect to see them both playing the infield for the Twins in a couple of years. 

[FlyingFinn]

2 busts but picking 27th is not a guarantee with Sabato. Cavaco was one of the biggest mistakes this FO made. TBD - Miller was 36th and is still very young. Fringe MLB - Rooker, 23 career HR's so far. Trade chip - Petty for Gray looks good now as we got two years from Sonny. Would like to find out soon - Larnach and Wallner and I wish we would find out now, replacing Gallo and Kepler. Great picks - Lewis and Lee, the only top 12 picks.

Double digit picks that make it to the majors do offset the Sabato, Cavaco and Rooker picks  with Ober, Varland and Julien.

[wabene]

Looking at Wallner's minor league splits this year he has been remarkably consistent. Consistently superb. With almost identical platoon splits as well. C'mon man get this guy up here. A Minnesota kid to boot. 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Double digit picks that make it to the majors do offset the Sabato, Cavaco and Rooker picks  with Ober, Varland and Julien.

It's a good point - you can't just view a draft by its first round. There are plenty of first round busts in baseball, and plenty that become all stars from later rounds.

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Although I agreed with the trade at the time I think we may regret giving up Petty.  He has the chance to be an ace.  It should help if we give a QO to Sonny Gray so at least we will get either a third year of him or a sandwich pick back but that pick would not be available to the MLB team until way after Petty would have been ready.  Yet to fully play out.

In finance, present value represents the current value of future cash flows, based on the principle that money in the present is worth more than money in the future.  I'd argue this same principle applies in a baseball trade where you get a 'known quantity' to use in the present, in exchange for a somewhat unknown quantity that could have great value in the future. That is the Gray versus Perry situation, and I won't regret the trade if Petty becomes an ace, taking into consideration the number of years in the future that may be and the inherent risks associated with what was a teen aged pitcher. If he pans out, this will probably be a relatively even trade, and that is still a big if. Meanwhile, Gray has been a very solid major league starting pitcher in both years; if the Twins choose not to pursue him next year, they will still have gotten a good return on the Perry investment, IMHO.

[Beast]

Not an awful track record, not great either.

As mentioned above, Id also flip Lewis and Lee.  Not even a question at this point in my mind.  Lewis is looking like a decade long quality major leaguer.  We don’t really know if Lee can even play in the MLB at this point.

I’m just not a fan of taking guys like Sabato, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner with high draft picks.  Those were thrown away picks, IMO.  Their upside is very limited, they can’t play defense well, and you can find that type of guy for relatively cheap at the MLB level every year.  Maybe take one of these guys every once in a while….but half the list is this type of player.

I’d prefer guys like Miller.  I think I even like the thought process of the Cavaco pick better than the Sabato pick.  It’s like buying a lottery ticket vs. a $1 pull tab.  Hit on the former and you’re right.  Hit on the latter and you’ll be lucky if you can even cover your bar tab.  Even if you hit on 100 of pull tabs, it’s not making a huge difference.

I loved the Petty pick.   I don’t see it as a success for getting two decent years of Sonny Gray on bad team.  People point to it as a positive now, but that could look real bad in a few years.  But, still a good pick.  #3 on the list, IMO.  Maybe even #2 behind Lewis considering the draft spot.

[Beast]

15 minutes ago, arby58 said:

In finance, present value represents the current value of future cash flows, based on the principle that money in the present is worth more than money in the future.  I'd argue this same principle applies in a baseball trade where you get a 'known quantity' to use in the present, in exchange for a somewhat unknown quantity that could have great value in the future. That is the Gray versus Perry situation, and I won't regret the trade if Petty becomes an ace, taking into consideration the number of years in the future that may be and the inherent risks associated with what was a teen aged pitcher. If he pans out, this will probably be a relatively even trade, and that is still a big if. Meanwhile, Gray has been a very solid major league starting pitcher in both years; if the Twins choose not to pursue him next year, they will still have gotten a good return on the Perry investment, IMHO.

I’m a CPA.  I fully understand what you’re saying.

But, there are limitations on the benefits of present value.  There’s a point at which it doesn’t compute.  There are risks in any type of investment.  But, people (particularly successful, rich people) still invest their money in long-term assets (Petty) vs. having the short term liquidity (Gray).  If Petty turns into an ace caliber pitcher for a number of years - it vastly outweighs a couple years of a decent starting pitcher on a team that didn’t win squat.  It’s not even close.

If Petty reaches those heights, the only thing that would’ve made it worth it was if we had won something.  We didn’t.  We blew our short term liquidity on a bunch of value meals from McDonalds.  Now we just sit back and hope Petty flames out, or it was a bad trade.

[arby58]

7 minutes ago, Beast said:

I loved the Petty pick.   I don’t see it as a success for getting two decent years of Sonny Gray on bad team.  People point to it as a positive now, but that could look real bad in a few years.  But, still a good pick.  #3 on the list, IMO.  Maybe even #2 behind Lewis considering the draft spot.

First, the Twins this year aren't a 'bad team.' They still have a strong possibility to win the division, they are not the Royals or As, and they need strong starting pitching to do so, because their offense is inconsistent. Gray has provided them that. Second, you are assuming Perry will become at least as solid a major league pitcher. Given the 'time value' situation of the present versus the future, he will have to perform very well for several years to make up for that. 

[arby58]

1 minute ago, Beast said:

I’m a CPA.  I fully understand what you’re saying.

But, there are limitations on the benefits of present value.  There’s a point at which it doesn’t compute.  There are risks in any type of investment.  But, people (particularly rich people) still invest their money in long-term assets (Petty) vs. having the short term liquidity (Gray).  If Petty turns into an ace caliber pitcher for a number of years - it vastly outweighs a couple years of a decent starting pitcher on a team that didn’t win squat.  It’s not even close.

If Petty reaches those heights, the only thing that would’ve made it worth it was if we had won something.  We didn’t.  We blew our short term liquidity on a bunch of value meals from McDonalds.  Now we just sit back and hope Petty flames out, or it was a bad trade.

I'm a finance guy, so I also 'get' what you are saying about long versus short term investments. That said, please note that your comparison starts with an 'if' statement related to Perry. There is no 'if' associated with Gray - he has been a solid starting pitcher, and that's not really a fair way of stating it either. Over the last season and a half, he is 12-6 with an ERA around 3. That is not just 'decent' that is very good. Further, the Twins are in contention this year to win their division. Last time I checked, as a fan, I'm interested in them winning in the present, not just the future. As Keynes once put it, 'in the long run, we're all dead.'

[arby58]

19 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree with your point.  That said, if Petty becomes a true ace it is not equal as I, and many others I suspect, do not see Gray as a true #1.  Maybe a #2.  It also does not take into account the number of years under control that we would have Petty for vs Gray nor the cheaper salary during those control years.

Well, 200.2 innings pitched for the Twins, 12-6 record, ERA of 3.13, with 201 Ks and 32 walks - that is a damn good line for a starting pitcher. If that isn't a number one starting pitcher, my guess is any team in baseball would take that as their number two.

[Eris]

On Cavaco. What does it mean to be placed on the developmental list after playing professionally for 4 years. 

[Mike Sixel]

Man I hated all three that you rank the worst..... Oh well. Hopefully they nail the first two picks this year. 

[gman]

Can't argue too much with the rankings. What does the development list entail. Specialized coaching? If so, I would think every minor leaguer should spend time each month on the development list. Spend 4 hours a day in a game or 6-8 hours a day working on a weakness.

For instance Miller  has got shortstop down pretty good, but he needs to work a lot on his hitting. At over 190 lbs he should be able to do a lot more. If he is working with a hitting coach for 200 at bats a day 3-4 times a week, you would think he could make faster improvements then 3-4 a at bats 5 times a week. Granted he needs live game reps, but obviously he needs hitting work more.

 

 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

on a team that didn’t win squat

This would be irrelevant even if it turns out to be true. Every year you must field a team and should be trying to field the best team you can. It doesn't always work out, but a bad team wouldn't erase the value of a good player's performance. Does Mike Trout ring a bell?

Two years of top quality starting pitching plus a pick in the mid 30's (or a third year of Gray) for the uncertain future performance of Petty who was a mid twenties pick (26). That is some smart maneuvering. What are the odds even now of Petty having 3 years in the bigs at Gray's performance level? It's still a long shot. Even if he does beat those odds it wouldn't cancel out the excellent calculus of this deal.

[chpettit19]

66% of first round picks reach the majors. The Twins are at 4 of 9 right now, with a couple too new to really be expected have reached yet. I'd say they're 4 for 6 right now. The idea behind Sabato was that he was going to be quick moving as a "polished" college bat. So he's a miss. Cavaco is on the edge of his timeline as a high school pick, but since he looks like he has no chance of ever reaching the bigs he counts as a miss to me. So they're right at league average. Nothing great, but nothing terrible.

I would also have Lewis over Lee at this point. By a pretty wide margin, too. The biggest thing this FO needs out of this group is a star or 2. Lewis looks like he's on his way, and we all hope for it with Lee. But I agree with others that taking the Rooker, Wallner, Sabato types is not my favorite strategy. Just such limited ways for them to impact the game. Those were later picks so it's not as bad, but I still prefer homerun swings on toolsy players at the top of the draft. I'll take a 33% hit rate if those hits are 5 tool stars over a 66% hit rate on MLB average regulars.

[Brandon]

Last year we were a good team until injuries kicked in and tanked us the last month.  we were in first place  going into September last year.  Sony Gray wasn't the problem.  We are in first now with a large thanks to Grays performance as he is leading the staff.  I also think other starters have benefited from having him around.  how does that fit into the calculus?  We have a great rotation this year.  I hope we can resign Gray.  if we can give him a qualified offer this offseason so we get a draft pick or get him on a 1 year deal that would be great.  2 years of what we get from Gray now is a great value and I am glad we made the trade and I am a Petty fan.  If we get a third season or draft pick then even better and I think that tilts this in our favor.  

[Brandon]

Also it would be nice to see a break out from a first rounder.  Our record there is less than desirable. But I also saw where we have most of our 1rst round picks are later in the round.  This year we pick 5th so that will be nice to see how that adds to our record.  I hope Larnarch and Walner get some opportunities and success to get their record in the first round some credibility.  

and I am going to say the first and second pick with Lewis and Lee are fine for now.  Though that is subject to changel.  Lewis struggled when he was picked.  

[DocBauer]

I just never liked the Cavaco pick. A HS fast riser with helium just spoke huge risk to me. And while he's an athlete, there is clearly something missing as he's clearly not come close to reaching any sort of solid production.

I didn't like the Sabato, but not for the same reasons as others. We were picking fairly late, and based on bat to ball, OB, and power skills he looked like a "safe" pick at 1B/DH that was limited. But oh my, what a nice bat he might bring! And you still need 1B/DH types. I didn't like the pick because even though there weren't seemingly any top flight, "can't miss" type of arms in the round, the college arms were reputed to be deep in solid quantity, and I wanted one of those.

I didn't hate the Rooker pick. I mean, a big, record-setting college bat that late in the 1st round? Well worth the pick! 

I liked Wallner better. Another bat first, record-setting bat, but with a huge arm and pretty decent speed for a big guy. And I'm liking the pick more and more as he's moved up the system and developed and produced. I'd much rather see him on an extended run with the Twins, however.

I still like the potential of Larnach to be at least a solid producer. Even with some struggles this year and being bounced up and down from AAA and dealing with a bout of pneumonia, he's still got as good or better numbers than the "established veteran" Kepler. Meaning there's room to grow and improve, but I'm not sure how much he's going to sitting in St Paul vs the ML level.

Good luck to Petty. I'd love to have him. I can't complain about adding Gray, and possible additional return in 2024 one way or another. (re-signed or a pick).

Way too early for Miller. From I've seen, the glove already plays. And he's young enough there's a lot of time for him to develop and grow and improve. 

I'd also place Lewis above Lee. I think that's a no-brainer.

While it's just too early to tell on most of these guys, Cavaco and Sabato are the only 2 that I see as just bad choices at the time. And I think there's at least a small chance of Sabato still turning out, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, Eris said:

On Cavaco. What does it mean to be placed on the developmental list after playing professionally for 4 years. 

This is probably rhetorical? If not…

It means there’s a last ditch effort by the organization. (Tearing down and rebuilding the swing; or something as radical as changing a batter to a pitcher, etc.)

It also means not taking at-bats from other prospects that are succeeding and need to advance.

I believe the player has to consent. I suppose we can assume that often times the alternative is being released, although I have no inside info on Cavaco’s specific situation.

[jkcarew]

Cavaco is the only pick that I hated in real-time.

Petty is looking like a nice pick at this stage. Still don’t mind the trade.

[wabene]

25 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Cavaco is the only pick that I hated in real-time.

Petty is looking like a nice pick at this stage. Still don’t mind the trade.

Yeah Petty was exciting, electric stuff and confidence reminding me of Ryan. Unfortunately the Twins needed pitching before Petty could provide it.

[DocBauer]

6 hours ago, Eris said:

On Cavaco. What does it mean to be placed on the developmental list after playing professionally for 4 years. 

While I don't understand the parameters of how often you can place a player on the development list, or the length of their stay there, it's basically a limited taxi squad available to milb teams to manage the active roster, but have other players/pitchers to rotate in and out.

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, Beast said:

I’m a CPA.  I fully understand what you’re saying.

But, there are limitations on the benefits of present value.  There’s a point at which it doesn’t compute.  There are risks in any type of investment.  But, people (particularly successful, rich people) still invest their money in long-term assets (Petty) vs. having the short term liquidity (Gray).  If Petty turns into an ace caliber pitcher for a number of years - it vastly outweighs a couple years of a decent starting pitcher on a team that didn’t win squat.  It’s not even close.

If Petty reaches those heights, the only thing that would’ve made it worth it was if we had won something.  We didn’t.  We blew our short term liquidity on a bunch of value meals from McDonalds.  Now we just sit back and hope Petty flames out, or it was a bad trade.

The proper comparison for Petty is the pick from the Gray QO.   Gray is the gravy in this deal.  The Twins got the short term value in Gray and also the long term value of another late first round pick but in a slightly longer term.  The qualifying offer was certainly a factor in the value paid for Gray. 

I do not care if Chase Petty is a first ballot hall of famer.  This trade is a home run of third deck proportions.  They won coming and going.

Also, lets not get too over our skies crowning Petty.  Long ways to go.

[bighat]

Good picks: Petty, Lewis, and Lee. 

Understandable gambles: Cavaco, Miller.

Head scratchers: DH-type college guys like Rooker, Larnach, and Sabato. Why?

Unknown: Wallner. He deserves the same chance that Larnach has been given several times over the years. 

[Maybebaby]

Sabato, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner look like reaches for the next Killebrew...not even close!

[Seth Stohs]

On 6/24/2023 at 5:21 PM, jkcarew said:

This is probably rhetorical? If not…

It means there’s a last ditch effort by the organization. (Tearing down and rebuilding the swing; or something as radical as changing a batter to a pitcher, etc.)

It also means not taking at-bats from other prospects that are succeeding and need to advance.

I believe the player has to consent. I suppose we can assume that often times the alternative is being released, although I have no inside info on Cavaco’s specific situation.

Yeah, that's not really it... though not completely wrong. 

First, in this case, Cavaco stays with the Kernels, keeps working with them, practicing, dressing for games, being a part of all they do, except can't play. The DL is kind of like a taxi squad with a couple of players at each level, ready to be activated when needed. 

But, you are right in the part about them wanting to play other prospects... They're going to play Ross, Miller, Salas, Schobel. They're all ahead of Cavaco. Ernie Yake is in a similar situation. He jumps around from level to level and has found himself on the Dev List several times. 

[Seth Stohs]

My Rankings: 

1.) Royce Lewis
2.) Brooks Lee
3.) Trevor Larnach
4.) Brent Rooker
5.) Matt Wallner 
6.) Chase Petty 
7.) Noah Miller 
8.) Aaron Sabato
9.) Keoni Cavaco 

[Mike Sixel]

You like rooker better than Petty? Not one team would trade Wallner or Petty for rooker. not Rooker for Miller either.