Minnesota Twins 2019 Draft Retrospective: Late-Round Steals

Dman · May 31

Twins have had issues with 1st round picks but have been good in the later rounds. 2019 shows that with Headrick, Jullien and Varland. If Wallner works out that was quite a good draft. Add Steer and Legumina and it looks even better. It doesn't look like any of guys will be super stars but they all could be really good players.

chpettit19 · May 31

20 minutes ago, Dman said:

Twins have had issues with 1st round picks but have been good in the later rounds. 2019 shows that with Headrick, Jullien and Varland. If Wallner works out that was quite a good draft. Add Steer and Legumina and it looks even better. It doesn't look like any of guys will be super stars but they all could be really good players.

This kind of sums up this FO regime. Can produce ML talent, but can't produce stars. So they have decent to solid teams who can hang around .500, but are never really contenders. They need to start producing stars or they're doomed to mediocrity. Their jump to #5 this year is a huge opportunity. Don't get cute. Have to get your star this year.

jmlease1 · May 31

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

Twins have had issues with 1st round picks but have been good in the later rounds. 2019 shows that with Headrick, Jullien and Varland. If Wallner works out that was quite a good draft. Add Steer and Legumina and it looks even better. It doesn't look like any of guys will be super stars but they all could be really good players.

I don't know that they've had more issues with 1st round picks than other teams under this regime. They've made 9 picks in the first round since 2017. 4 of them have made it to MLB under the Twins (Lewis, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner) and 3 of those are still with the franchise. 2 are looking like busts (Cavaco and Sabato), though they are still with the franchise. 1 was dealt for was has to be considered a win in Sonny Gray (Petty) who has been excellent for 2 seasons and will likely net us a similar draft pick next year. Miller looks good enough defensively to make the majors even if his hit tool doesn't develop, and Brooks Lee looks like a potential star.

Potential Stars: Lewis, Lee
Solid MLB players: Larnach, Wallner
Made it to MLB: Rooker
Should make it to MLB: Miller
Traded for quality MLB asset: Petty
Bust: Cavcao, Sabato

Look at say, the White Sox in a similar time period. They've only had 6 picks (no compensatory picks), but have also picked a bit higher than the Twins over the last 6 years. (average pick for Twins: 16. ChiSox: 13.)

Potential Stars: Montgomery
Solid MLB players: Madrigal, Burger, Vaughn
Made it to MLB: Crochet

Schultz is basically exactly where Petty was for the Twins: HS pitcher with talent, not a top 100 prospect. Chicago hasn't had the misses the Twins did with Cavaco and Sabato, but they've also picked a bit higher overall and had fewer bites at the apple. (I understand if people think I'm overestimating Larnach or Wallner by calling them "solid MLB players" right now...but I do think it's reasonable to lump them in with players like Burger/Madrigal/Vaughn)

TwinsDr2021 · May 31

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This kind of sums up this FO regime. Can produce ML talent, but can't produce stars. So they have decent to solid teams who can hang around .500, but are never really contenders. They need to start producing stars or they're doomed to mediocrity. Their jump to #5 this year is a huge opportunity. Don't get cute. Have to get your star this year.

Question for you (because I 100% agree with what your said) As of today has this FO done enough in 7 years to keep their job going forward. (I understand there is a long season to go to change everybody opinions)

My two cents without at least a playoff win, I say no.

chpettit19 · May 31

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Question for you (because I 100% agree with what your said) As of today has this FO done enough in 7 years to keep their job going forward. (I understand there is a long season to go to change everybody opinions)

My two cents without at least a playoff win, I say no.

I honestly don't have a super strong opinion one way or the other. I think they're in the middle of the FO rankings (same with Rocco as a manager). They're not spectacular, but they're not terrible. I tend to lean towards taking chances on finding the spectacular so I'd put myself mostly in the same place as you are in them needing to show something in the playoffs, but I also understand that we could be the Rockies and be run significantly worse than Falvine has done.

I think they've drafted quite well overall. I think they've modernized the organization, which is huge. I think they have a decent plan for building a winner in MN with the constraints placed on them. I think they've failed at actually doing it. I think it's all sort of the same problem, though. They're average, they found an average manager, and they're really good at finding, or developing, average talent. I think the average fan wants to see more than average, though. And in order to do that you have to risk going from average to below average. It's very similar to the Kirk Cousins situation with the Vikings. Maybe not quite good enough, but you know there's far worse so how much do you want to risk to try to improve upon what you have? Winning a bad division and losing in the first round of the playoffs isn't quite good enough. But it's way better than 99, 96, 96, 92, and 103 losses in 5 of 6 seasons we just went through not that long ago.

Really long answer to say I wouldn't push back on them being fired if they don't find some playoff success this year. But I'll be nervous about whoever they bring in to replace them.

Jocko87 · May 31

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Question for you (because I 100% agree with what your said) As of today has this FO done enough in 7 years to keep their job going forward. (I understand there is a long season to go to change everybody opinions)

My two cents without at least a playoff win, I say no.

Front office is comfortable and should be. The coaching staff should not be. This is the most talent assembled at the upper levels this organization has seen in quite a long time, if ever. They are doing a pretty decent job with the roster and most importantly to me, have been constantly adjusting their approach to get better. The same can't be said for the on field production. Opinions vary about how much of that is the front office vs the coaching staff.

I know @chpettit19 and I disagree on the relative impact of coaches but I would say the difference between Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee being stars or solid MLB players is coaching and player development. How much responsibility for that we can assign to the FO is unknown without some inside knowledge. They do hire the coaches though and some will not be invited back if we don't see some improvement long before the FO is gone.

While this front office has not exactly drafted any stars they do have a couple hopefully on the way and have done an exceptional job getting stars in other ways. Locking up two top 50 players like they did was masterful. Why those stars aren't performing to their potential is, to me, coaching. Stars need coaching too.

TwinsDr2021 · May 31

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Front office is comfortable and should be.

While this front office has not exactly drafted any stars they do have a couple hopefully on the way and have done an exceptional job getting stars in other ways. Locking up two top 50 players like they did was masterful. Why those stars aren't performing to their potential is, to me, coaching. Stars need coaching too.

This FO has had 8 drafts and not one star? Maybe Lewis but 7 years later, possibly Lee but he is still in AA? Getting stars in other way? who might that be, besides a massive contract(s) for Correa? Maybe Duran but as of now he has all of89 innings.

I will add isn't it the FO job to hire coaches? Now, they could turn this season around and win a playoff game or two or possibly a series and I would say they deserve another chance, but if not clean house, starting at the top. Remember they were handed future stars all over the diamond (Berrios, Pressly, Rogers, Dozier, Escobar, Sano, Polanco, Arreaz, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Miranda, AK, Garver, Gordon, and few mid tier pitchers) and turned it into 21, 22, and a 23 season going downhill. I am not saying everything they have done is bad, they have made some good to great signings and trades, but as whole besides 2019 and a flukely 2020 season call me disappointed so far in their tenure.

weitz41 · May 31

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Front office is comfortable and should be. The coaching staff should not be. This is the most talent assembled at the upper levels this organization has seen in quite a long time, if ever. They are doing a pretty decent job with the roster and most importantly to me, have been constantly adjusting their approach to get better. The same can't be said for the on field production. Opinions vary about how much of that is the front office vs the coaching staff.

I know @chpettit19 and I disagree on the relative impact of coaches but I would say the difference between Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee being stars or solid MLB players is coaching and player development. How much responsibility for that we can assign to the FO is unknown without some inside knowledge. They do hire the coaches though and some will not be invited back if we don't see some improvement long before the FO is gone.

While this front office has not exactly drafted any stars they do have a couple hopefully on the way and have done an exceptional job getting stars in other ways. Locking up two top 50 players like they did was masterful. Why those stars aren't performing to their potential is, to me, coaching. Stars need coaching too.

This is almost exactly how I feel about their drafts as well. Some 1st round misses but many high ceilings mid to late 1st round choices are boom or bust. The solid to stellar mid to late round picks are what has me in their corner.

jkcarew · May 31

Cavaco was a horrendous reach at the time. Multiple draft analysts (and members of this community) said he was a reach in real time. He’s now a first baseman (that has never been able to hit)…a clear indication that the Twins are throwing in the towel.

The rest of 2019 looks pretty good. A little bit of…“other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?”

DocBauer · May 31

Never quite understood Cavaco as the 1st pick then and still don't know. I guess it's exciting to hear about a young player with tools gaining "steam" and looking like a steal. But shouldn't the scouting department been smarter than that? (Remember, it is the scouting department that primarily makes these selections). I'm still disappointed they didn't see a safer, more well known and scouted player with a high ceiling available instead of the mystery kid riser. But the rest of the draft was pretty darn good!

Jury is out how good Wallner might be. The defense needs work/polish, but he's got the range and arm. Offensively, he's always going to K a lot. But he's shown the ability to actually hit some, and still BB walk some, to go along with huge power. He's also only 25 still and inexpensive. I already know he'd be a more productive run producer than Kepler. Time to find out how good he might be.

Varland is already a part of the rotation and looking better and better the more experience he gains.

Julien just might be the best player out of the entire draft for the Twins.

I'm starting to really like what I'm seeing and reading about Headrick and I think he's permanent part of the Twins pretty soon. I'm saying the pen as a reliable 3rd LH arm.

I think Lawyerson has a chance to find a role as the 6th-8th man in the pen. A solid, funky delivery arm with good control who can give you 1-4 IP, whatever you need on any given day.

Canterino...crossing fingers...will end up a really nice back of the pen arm once he gets back and gets in a good flow. His stuff is just so nasty, a healthy version of him at 90% his old self could still be a hell of a pen arm.

The rest, I'm really not sure if anyone steps up or not at this point.

Without Cavaco, this looks like a great draft. Had they selected someone who wasn't such a risk, and was turning out, it would have been a tremendous draft.

Jocko87 · May 31

2 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The rest of 2019 looks pretty good. A little bit of…“other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?”

But so do all the rest of the years. For all the rest of the teams. Even in the first round the hit rate is abysmal in the MLB draft.

Baseball reference has a good draft pick sort and view. Take a look at some random years. I just picked 2014 for fun. 13 of the 41 first round picks have not yet reached the majors leagues, including the #1 and #2 overall (high school pitchers Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek). Of the remaining 28 that have played in the majors, 16 have a career WAR under 2.0 including our own Nick Gordon.

It’s tough to project even at the top, have to make up for it in volume.

jkcarew · May 31

10 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

But so do all the rest of the years. For all the rest of the teams. Even in the first round the hit rate is abysmal in the MLB draft.

Baseball reference has a good draft pick sort and view. Take a look at some random years. I just picked 2014 for fun. 13 of the 41 first round picks have not yet reached the majors leagues, including the #1 and #2 overall (high school pitchers Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek). Of the remaining 28 that have played in the majors, 16 have a career WAR under 2.0 including our own Nick Gordon.

It’s tough to project even at the top, have to make up for it in volume.

All fair. But there’s a difference between missing on a consensus (or within shouting distance of consensus) player, and having the player not work out…

…and thinking you know something nobody else knows and reaching,..and having that player fail from day one.

One is going to garner more criticism than the other. It comes with the territory.

Mike Sixel · May 31

Even with the first pick, this is a very good looking draft. Varland looks like a number 3/4, and I'm confident in Wallner and Julien contributing. Then there are the relief pitchers.....

Jocko87 · May 31

4 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

All fair. But there’s a difference between missing on a consensus (or within shouting distance of consensus) player, and having the player not work out…

…and thinking you know something nobody else knows and reaching,..and having that player fail from day one.

One is going to garner more criticism than the other. It comes with the territory.

But the only player drafted after of any real note at this point is Corbin Carroll, also a risky high schooler. He was not consensus in any way, he went 16th. That portion of the draft board is ugly and the D-backs hit a lottery ticket.

jkcarew · May 31

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

But the only player drafted after of any real note at this point is Corbin Carroll, also a risky high schooler. He was not consensus in any way, he went 16th. That portion of the draft board is ugly and the D-backs hit a lottery ticket.

But again it’s not as much the result as the process. Cavaco was a complete lottery ticket from the get-go…at 13th overall. But maybe it’s just me (wouldn’t be the first time)😉

HrbieFan · June 1

22 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I don't know that they've had more issues with 1st round picks than other teams under this regime. They've made 9 picks in the first round since 2017. 4 of them have made it to MLB under the Twins (Lewis, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner) and 3 of those are still with the franchise. 2 are looking like busts (Cavaco and Sabato), though they are still with the franchise. 1 was dealt for was has to be considered a win in Sonny Gray (Petty) who has been excellent for 2 seasons and will likely net us a similar draft pick next year. Miller looks good enough defensively to make the majors even if his hit tool doesn't develop, and Brooks Lee looks like a potential star.

Potential Stars: Lewis, Lee

Solid MLB players: Larnach, Wallner

Made it to MLB: Rooker

Should make it to MLB: Miller

Traded for quality MLB asset: Petty

Bust: Cavcao, Sabato

Look at say, the White Sox in a similar time period. They've only had 6 picks (no compensatory picks), but have also picked a bit higher than the Twins over the last 6 years. (average pick for Twins: 16. ChiSox: 13.)

Potential Stars: Montgomery

Solid MLB players: Madrigal, Burger, Vaughn

Made it to MLB: Crochet

Schultz is basically exactly where Petty was for the Twins: HS pitcher with talent, not a top 100 prospect. Chicago hasn't had the misses the Twins did with Cavaco and Sabato, but they've also picked a bit higher overall and had fewer bites at the apple. (I understand if people think I'm overestimating Larnach or Wallner by calling them "solid MLB players" right now...but I do think it's reasonable to lump them in with players like Burger/Madrigal/Vaughn)

Rooker more than made it to the bigs! He is hitting 260 with 11 HRs for a horrible A's team.

jmlease1 · June 1

5 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Rooker more than made it to the bigs! He is hitting 260 with 11 HRs for a horrible A's team.

I mostly meant with the Twins. I'm happy for Rooker that he's playing for the A's, but he's basically had one great month and one bad month this year, so I'm having trouble calling him a solid MLB player. he's been pretty awful lately. We've seen him have hot stretches before, but he's never been able to sustain it.

Mike Sixel · June 1

48 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I mostly meant with the Twins. I'm happy for Rooker that he's playing for the A's, but he's basically had one great month and one bad month this year, so I'm having trouble calling him a solid MLB player. he's been pretty awful lately. We've seen him have hot stretches before, but he's never been able to sustain it.

It is looking like that streak is over.....(the good one)....hopefully for him he can get back to close to there, but I have doubts.

Hawkeye Bean Counter · June 1

I have posted a couple articles on this class. The biggest point I would make is without Cavaco and many other players signing at reduced money, the Twins don't have the money at the end of the day to do the oversized contract to Julien. It was a winding draft and signing period where Julien stated he was staying in college then signed at the last minute. Had Cavaco panned out this would be a great draft. I still think we can get something out of Canterino, will have to wait and see. Wallner is also a wildcard as to whether can become a solid MLB player. Steer was a heck of a pick as well as Varland. We swapped Legumina for Farmer. Steer brought us Mahle although that trade didn't work out, the overall draft philosophy is working very well. You won't hit on everything but they hit on a lot. You still have a few players that could pan out yet. Most notable would be Mooney and laweryson and Isola beyond the bigger name and higher drafted players.

JD-TWINS · June 2

On 5/31/2023 at 1:48 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

This FO has had 8 drafts and not one star? Maybe Lewis but 7 years later, possibly Lee but he is still in AA? Getting stars in other way? who might that be, besides a massive contract(s) for Correa? Maybe Duran but as of now he has all of89 innings.

I will add isn't it the FO job to hire coaches? Now, they could turn this season around and win a playoff game or two or possibly a series and I would say they deserve another chance, but if not clean house, starting at the top. Remember they were handed future stars all over the diamond (Berrios, Pressly, Rogers, Dozier, Escobar, Sano, Polanco, Arreaz, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Miranda, AK, Garver, Gordon, and few mid tier pitchers) and turned it into 21, 22, and a 23 season going downhill. I am not saying everything they have done is bad, they have made some good to great signings and trades, but as whole besides 2019 and a flukely 2020 season call me disappointed so far in their tenure.

Sano - Kepler - Escobar - Garver - Rosario - Miranda - Gordon are all below average players if we look at their careers. 2-3 had really good season or two.

Kirilloff - Larnach - Correa - Lee - Lewis will be 5 number 1 picks in the line-up in ‘24!

TwinsDr2021 · June 2

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sano - Kepler - Escobar - Garver - Rosario - Miranda - Gordon are all below average players if we look at their careers. 2-3 had really good season or two.

Kirilloff - Larnach - Correa - Lee - Lewis will be 5 number 1 picks in the line-up in ‘24!

AK, wasn't their pick, Larnach (Jury still out), Correa cost 30+ million a year, Lee is still in AA (I have high hopes for him) and Lewis finally looks like the real deal but sits at 53 big league at bats.

So call me not so impressed that with 8+ plus first round picks and 300 million dollars got this much developed. They have done great with Varland and Ober, (Duran via Escobar), OK with Moran and Jax (Both like AK were already in organization)

Win a playoff series or at least a game and all will be forgiven.

TwinsDr2021 · June 2

On 6/1/2023 at 10:22 AM, Mike Sixel said:

It is looking like that streak is over.....(the good one)....hopefully for him he can get back to close to there, but I have doubts.

Exactly - May .198/.289/616 - 2 homers. Which is very comparable to Buxton and Gallo.

Cody Christie · June 7

On 5/31/2023 at 6:04 PM, Jocko87 said:

But so do all the rest of the years. For all the rest of the teams. Even in the first round the hit rate is abysmal in the MLB draft.

A couple of years ago, I looked at how the Twins and Astros drafted when they were both rebuilding at the same time. First round picks are a crapshoot even when you have high picks.

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