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  • Minnesota Twins 2020 Draft Retrospective: Raya Sunshine


    Cody Christie

    The 2020 season was unique in many ways, including the 2020 MLB Draft. Were the Twins able to find value in a unique draft format that may never be seen again?

     

    Image courtesy of McKenzie Short, Cedar Rapids Kernels

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    Major League Baseball's 2023 Draft is scheduled to start on July 9, 2023. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, this series will examine recent Twins drafts and how those players have performed so far in their professional careers.

    First Round: Aaron Sabato
    The Twins were drafting at the end of the first round (27th overall) after a strong 2019 season. The pandemic wiped out nearly the entire college and high school season leading into the draft, making evaluating talent even more challenging. Only five first-round picks from 2020 have provided positive WAR so far in their big-league careers.

    Sabato was an interesting pick by the Twins because he was a slugging college bat with little defensive value. Players must provide exceptional offensive value with this specific skill set during their minor league career. Last season, Sabato showed flashes of his potential by posting a .799 OPS with 30 extra-base hits in 80 High-A games. His OPS dropped over 100 points after being promoted to Double-A, but he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition at that level. His 2023 season started late due to injury, so the sample size needs to be more significant to make substantial evaluations. 

    Second Round: Alerick Soularie
    Soularie spent parts of two college seasons at the University of Tennessee and posted a 1.034 OPS in 76 games. At the time of the draft, evaluators viewed him as a toolsy college outfielder with the potential to improve on both sides of the ball. His college power numbers have yet to follow him to his professional career. In 2021, he posted a .668 OPS at Low-A and improved by 48 points during last season at High-A. Soularie has played the 2023 campaign at Double-A, where he is over a year and a half younger than the average age of the competition at his level. He has hit .220/.365/.300 (.665) with two extra-base hits in 19 games. Last year, he split time between second base and the outfield, but he has only played corner outfield in 2023. 

    The Twins surrendered their third-round pick after signing Josh Donaldson leading into the 2020 season. Atlanta gave him the qualifying offer, but he declined it to test free agent waters. At the time, teams that received revenue-sharing money, like the Twins, lost their third-highest unprotected selection in the next draft for signing a free agent that rejected a qualifying offer. In a draft with limited picks, there could have been value in still having a third-round selection. 

    Fourth Round: Marco Raya
    Raya is the Twins' highest-ranked prospect from the 2020 MLB Draft, and he looks like a steal in the fourth round. His small stature likely caused him to drop on some team's draft boards, but he has been fantastic during his professional career. In 2022, he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.077 WHIP and a 76-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Low-A. The 19-year-old was three years younger than the average age of the competition and faced older batters in over 82% of his plate appearances. Baseball Prospectus ranked him the 53rd-best prospect in the pre-2023 top-100 rankings. Minnesota pushed Raya to Cedar Rapids this season, and he has built off his strong 2022 season. In his first seven starts (20 2/3 innings), he allowed six earned runs on ten hits with 24 strikeouts and five walks. It will be interesting to see if he starts getting more national attention as he continues to produce in the lower minors. 

    Fifth Round: Kala'i Rosario
    The Twins selected Rosario as an outfielder out of high school in Hawaii. He made his professional debut in the 2021 season for the FCL Twins, where he hit .277/.341/.452 (.793) with ten doubles, four triples, and five home runs. Last season, he played over 100 games for Fort Myers with a .727 OPS while setting career highs in home runs (12) and doubles (21). He's off to a tremendous start at High-A during the 2022 season. In 46 games, he has hit .292/.398/.526 (.924) with 12 doubles, two triples, eight home runs, and 27 walks. He's faced older batters in all but four plate appearances, so that makes his performance even more impressive. 

    OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
    -2019 Draft Retrospective
    -2018 Draft Retrospective
    -2017 Draft Retrospective
    -2016 Draft Retrospective

    What are your impressions of the 2020 draft class? Who will have the most significant impact at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    You may need more time to evaluate Sabato, Cody.  I don't, the kid was a bad pick when they drafted him and has proven to be a bust on the field.  Reminds me of that Sanchez kid however long ago who was supposed to be the best power bat out of high school.  Don't recall how far he got, maybe Hi-A?

    Absolutely loved Raya when selected and after all the injury delays looks like a good one.  Although the jury is still deliberating, Rosario might also turn out to be special.  For those of us that miss our former Rosario, would be good if this kid makes it big..

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    Can't hit on all #1 's , but they really missed on Sabato  ...

    # 2 has talent and is trying  ...

    # 4 is Raya and because of his small stature  I think they might be grooming him for a 3 inning long relief roll  , he may be injury prone and not enough stamina  to be a starter  , that's the way I see it because I don't think he has pitched more than three innings  in any start and has pitched well since drafted  ...

    # 5 Rosario is building a resume for a shot at the show ... 

    The twins also signed a bunch of undrafted players in 2020  , that would be an interesting article to write about  , WHO HAS HAD THE MOST SUCCESS  from the pool of undrafted 2020 prospects   ...

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    I have not been a huge fan of this FO's love of the positionless, college masher type, but when they take a shot at their guy in the sandwich or second round I'm fine with it.  Sabato at 27th overall isn't really that different.  And Matt Wallner is looking like he could still be the player that proves the strategy worthwhile.

    For a weird short draft, this could end up being very good for the Twins, though for their last two picks not the first two.

    Still, too early to tell is the mantra for basically any draft as recent as 6 or 7 years.  Player development takes a while and first impressions in the majors can be misleading.

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    I didn't like the 2020 draft. If I recall correctly, it wasn't considered a deep draft, and I'm sure covid had a major influence. My problem with the Sabato pick wasn't he himself, but reports were there were still a few college arms that MIGHT turn out. 

    Sabato himself wasn't really a bad pick in the late 20's that year. He was limited to 1B/DH in the future, but when you pick that late in a questionable draft, you look for value. His college numbers indicated you might get a real BAT with power and OB. So far, all we've seen is a potential AAAA type of player.

    Wasn't crazy about Soularie because what I saw was an athlete without a position who MIGHT play 2B but was clearly an OF. Enough hit tool and power and speed to make a difference? Or just a LF who could do a little of everything? 

    What I LOVED was the Raya pick in the 4th. What I saw was a kid undervalued because of his size. I saw a Berrios comp who had real stuff and potential and attitude who might be really good. He was my favorite pick that draft. I don't hold size against him, but I am worried about shoulder issues that delayed his pro career initially, and has had the Twins bringing him along slowly. Considering how young he is, I think any issues are simply youth and still growing in to his frame. IIRC correctly, he was 18yo when drafted. He had a minor issue coming in to this season. And because of that, he's been brought along slowly. I'm OK with that. They think they have a great young arm and want to build him up slowly. I'm just hoping for 5+ IP the second half of this year. He doesn't have to be a STUD at 21yo. How about we just develop him, build him up, and get him ready for 2025 and beyond?

    Wasn't sure about Rosario as the 5th pick. As I recall, big power potential, questionable hit tool, average OF defensively. Like most HS kids. So far, he's been pushed than most HS age kids and is starting to look really good at A+. The Twins thought enough of him to play him a lot in ST to get ready for a promotion to CR. And so far, he's responded. Can't wait to see what he continues to do, but like most young batters, have to BB more than K as much as possible. He's a real possible at this time.

    But man, if we can all be patient, and just give the kid some time, I think Raya might be a viable rotation arm in a couple of years. I think the IP limit is ONLY to build him up.

     

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    13 hours ago, roger said:

    You may need more time to evaluate Sabato, Cody.  I don't, the kid was a bad pick when they drafted him and has proven to be a bust on the field.  Reminds me of that Sanchez kid however long ago who was supposed to be the best power bat out of high school.  Don't recall how far he got, maybe Hi-A?

    Absolutely loved Raya when selected and after all the injury delays looks like a good one.  Although the jury is still deliberating, Rosario might also turn out to be special.  For those of us that miss our former Rosario, would be good if this kid makes it big..

    I go back and forth on Sabato. 1.) If he wasn't a first-round pick, we would probably be fairly excited about a 23-24 year old who has hit 20ish homers in a season. Obviously because he was a first-round pick, it's magnified, 2.) it's a reminder that if you're not picking in the top 4-6 picks in the draft, there is nothing given. 3.) Not a good defensive 1B. 4.) Walks a ton. 5.) Swings and misses a lot. 6.) When he actually does catch up to fastballs, he can crush it. 

    So, ultimately, yes, it's been disappointing, but it hasn't been anywhere near the point where you would want to just release him. They risk losing him after this season if they don't add him to the 40-man roster. If that happens, oh well. Hard to imagine it would, so in reality, they have control of him through like 2026, and he's already at Double-A... Until he's holding someone back, there's no reason to drop him... 

     

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    13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Can't hit on all #1 's , but they really missed on Sabato  ...

    # 2 has talent and is trying  ...

    # 4 is Raya and because of his small stature  I think they might be grooming him for a 3 inning long relief roll  , he may be injury prone and not enough stamina  to be a starter  , that's the way I see it because I don't think he has pitched more than three innings  in any start and has pitched well since drafted  ...

    # 5 Rosario is building a resume for a shot at the show ... 

    The twins also signed a bunch of undrafted players in 2020  , that would be an interesting article to write about  , WHO HAS HAD THE MOST SUCCESS  from the pool of undrafted 2020 prospects   ...

    #1 is still trying too... Getting hit by a pitch and breaking his wrist (or that area) two years in a row doesn't help. By pick 27, expectations should drop significantly. 

    #2 has fought some injuries. The ankles getting hurt in spring training a couple years ago. He was also hit by a pitch in the hand/wrist area and missed a couple of weeks this season. He hasn't helped himself in the organization either

    #4 Raya will get more innings, but he has had shoulder issues since drafted, and he is a little guy. The reality is that if he becomes an MLB reliever, that's a tremendous fourth-round pick. They're being cautious, going three innings in all his starts so far this year. At some point, he'll get an opportunity to go four innings, and if things progress, he'll get to five maybe by the end of the year. He (and Rosario) don't need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2024 season. 

    #5 - Kala'i Rosario has been such a huge surprise this year. He was known for a ton of swing-and-miss, and he struck out a lot last year with the Mighty Mussels. He's always had tremendous power, arguably the most power potential by any prep hitter from that draft. I thought he would start back in Fort Myers for maybe a half season. Instead, he has been terrific, a rare bright spot in the Kernels lineup. A couple of days ago, he was named the TD Minor League Hitter of the Month for May, and he's hit a couple more homers since the calendar changed. 

    As for undrafted signings, not too many: 

    John Stankiewicz - now with CR. 
    Zarion Sharpe - rehabbed much of last year and eventually had Tommy John... possible to be back this year. 
    Lucas Sweeny - Not sure if the lefty ever pitched for a Twins affiliate. He was hurt since signing, and the Twins released him this spring. 
    Allante Hall - The catcher signed, but he wasn't in the organization for too long. Feel like he was released in 2021 probably. 
    Willy Diaz Vazquez - a shortstop from Canada, but he also didn't remain in the organization for long. 

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    3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    Big, big difference between Wallner and Sabato. Wallner may be a little awkward but he can run, throw, hits for power, hits for average, and gets on base plenty. He could work himself into being a fair outfielder too. Sabato takes some walks. 

    I was going to say... he's a pretty solid defensive outfielder with more speed than you'd think. Not a Gold Glove type, but he can make the plays, and his arm... well, his arm is incredible. I'm not sure "Hit for Average" will happen without cutting down the strikeouts, but we'll see. 

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    Given the lost season, one would think that the high school evaluations would be even tougher than the college ones.  Yet at this point (and it is still early), it is this draft’s high school picks that look to be solid and the college picks to be underwhelming.  

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    I don't remember any angst about choosing Griffey Jr,. a left handed kid. If the Twins are "left" with Clark or Jenkins, they better be ecstatic.

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    On 6/5/2023 at 10:29 AM, roger said:

    You may need more time to evaluate Sabato, Cody.  I don't, the kid was a bad pick when they drafted him and has proven to be a bust on the field. 

    I was referencing that it is hard to read too much into his 2023 numbers because he has such a limited sample size. I agree that his performance has not lived up to being selected in the first round. There have been few late first round picks from 2020 that have made a significant impact at the big-league level. 

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    On 6/6/2023 at 12:35 AM, Seth Stohs said:

    #1 is still trying too... Getting hit by a pitch and breaking his wrist (or that area) two years in a row doesn't help. By pick 27, expectations should drop significantly. 

    #2 has fought some injuries. The ankles getting hurt in spring training a couple years ago. He was also hit by a pitch in the hand/wrist area and missed a couple of weeks this season. He hasn't helped himself in the organization either

    #4 Raya will get more innings, but he has had shoulder issues since drafted, and he is a little guy. The reality is that if he becomes an MLB reliever, that's a tremendous fourth-round pick. They're being cautious, going three innings in all his starts so far this year. At some point, he'll get an opportunity to go four innings, and if things progress, he'll get to five maybe by the end of the year. He (and Rosario) don't need to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2024 season. 

    #5 - Kala'i Rosario has been such a huge surprise this year. He was known for a ton of swing-and-miss, and he struck out a lot last year with the Mighty Mussels. He's always had tremendous power, arguably the most power potential by any prep hitter from that draft. I thought he would start back in Fort Myers for maybe a half season. Instead, he has been terrific, a rare bright spot in the Kernels lineup. A couple of days ago, he was named the TD Minor League Hitter of the Month for May, and he's hit a couple more homers since the calendar changed. 

    As for undrafted signings, not too many: 

    John Stankiewicz - now with CR. 
    Zarion Sharpe - rehabbed much of last year and eventually had Tommy John... possible to be back this year. 
    Lucas Sweeny - Not sure if the lefty ever pitched for a Twins affiliate. He was hurt since signing, and the Twins released him this spring. 
    Allante Hall - The catcher signed, but he wasn't in the organization for too long. Feel like he was released in 2021 probably. 
    Willy Diaz Vazquez - a shortstop from Canada, but he also didn't remain in the organization for long. 

    Thank you Seth   , I didn't know Sabato was getting injured that often  , I do know he walks and crushes the ball , but is limited on defense ...

    Number 4 and 5 are the ones that are standing out the most ...

    Thanks again for the update and on the undrafted signed players  , I guess not much there ..

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