Prospect Outsiders Dominating Minnesota's Minor Leagues in 2023

This originally began as a look at a few prospects having great seasons, something of an off-setting on Matthew Taylor’s piece from the other day. I already knew of some of the names I could target, but a search revealed a fascinating pattern: nearly all the minor leaguers crushing the season are not well-regarded. That isn’t an insult to these young men—prospect evaluation is far from a perfect science, and internal synopses likely vary greatly from the public lists—but I found it worthy of mentioning that the “non-prospects” have been the ones performing the best in 2023. 

Let’s look at the names, speed-date style:

RHP Zebby Matthews
Freshly promoted to Cedar Rapids, Matthews crushed his time with Fort Myers, striking out 35.3% of the batters he faced while walking 3.3% (!!) of them over 38 2/3 frames. Of 448 pitchers in the minors with at least 30 innings, that’s good for the eighth-lowest walk rate (but not even the best in the system! More on that soon). An 8th-round selection out of Western Carolina University in 2023, Matthews may soon move up prospect lists, but he is still something of an unknown. 

RHP Cory Lewis
Lewis is the only player in this article currently on MLB.com’s top-30 list for the Twins; he takes the very last spot. Owning a spinny fastball, downer curve, and a knuckleball—yes, a knuckleball—Lewis has been nearly as good as Matthews in Fort Myers’ rotation, punching out 34.4% of hitters while walking them 7.6% of the time, still elite peripherals for nearly any pitcher. You may remember Lewis after he helped toss a combined no-hitter for Fort Myers a few days ago.

INF Jorel Ortega
This could have just been a “the Mighty Mussels are better than we probably gave them credit for” piece. Yet another 2022 draft pick, this one a 6th-rounder out of Tennessee, Ortega has struck the ball impressively at a pitching-dominated level, putting up a 152 wRC+ off a .295/.409/.487 slash line—mere points away from the classic .300/.400/.500 line reserved for the truly special hitters.

C Andrew Cossetti
.330/.462/.607 served as Cossetti’s Fort Myers slash line before Minnesota decided to stop terrorizing Florida State League pitchers with such offensive domination. A product of St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia (the same college as Jamie Moyer; what a pull), Cossetti quickly earned a promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he will help stimulate a Kernels team looking for some extra thump. Cossetti was yet another 2022 draft selection.

OF Kala’i Rosario
After a mediocre season with Fort Myers in 2022, Rosario's prospect status atrophied as the former 2020 draft selection had yet to have an overwhelmingly impressive season in the minors. Things have turned around so far in 2023. Rosario shaved a few points off his strikeout rate, replaced them with walks, and improved his isolated power to above the major-league average (.191). He’s currently holding a 153 wRC+; he may inch back onto top prospect lists soon. 

C Noah Cardenas
Few people have more of an interest in Cardenas than I do. Catchers who can hit are rare; catchers who walk more than they strike out are unicorns. Cardenas may not spout a horn on his head, but his 2023 play looks an awful lot like his 2022 line: an elite walk rate buoying competent average and power capabilities. His isolated power is down a little (.119 from .152), but the hitting package still looks excellent.

RHP Pierson Ohl
Remember the comment about Matthews’ walk rate? Here’s the guy who has him beaten. Ohl has walked four batters over 35 2/3 innings, good for a rate of 2.6%. That’s unheard of. He may actually throw too many strikes for his own good—as evident by his ERA far elevated above his peripherals—but the Twins have shown a consistent ability to coax effectiveness from command-first repertoires like Ohl. 

Check almost any major stat, and you'll find similar results; the Twins' minor league system is succeeding off the backs of "lesser" prospects, not the players you would most expect to lead the pack.

What do we make of this? It can be difficult to rank freshly drafted players, especially those taken lower in the draft, so the lack of prospect respect for these players is unsurprising. They just need time. For the others? Either they never commanded attention in the first place, or the industry opinion altered and never recovered. No matter—these players and their performances should be appreciated, and hopefully, they can keep it up as the season marches on.

Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!