Prospect Outsiders Dominating Minnesota's Minor Leagues in 2023

[Matt Braun]

It's unusual that the best players are the ones you can't find mentioned on prospect lists. 

Image courtesy of Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

 

This originally began as a look at a few prospects having great seasons, something of an off-setting on Matthew Taylor’s piece from the other day. I already knew of some of the names I could target, but a search revealed a fascinating pattern: nearly all the minor leaguers crushing the season are not well-regarded. That isn’t an insult to these young men—prospect evaluation is far from a perfect science, and internal synopses likely vary greatly from the public lists—but I found it worthy of mentioning that the “non-prospects” have been the ones performing the best in 2023. 

Let’s look at the names, speed-date style:

RHP Zebby Matthews
Freshly promoted to Cedar Rapids, Matthews crushed his time with Fort Myers, striking out 35.3% of the batters he faced while walking 3.3% (!!) of them over 38 2/3 frames. Of 448 pitchers in the minors with at least 30 innings, that’s good for the eighth-lowest walk rate (but not even the best in the system! More on that soon). An 8th-round selection out of Western Carolina University in 2023, Matthews may soon move up prospect lists, but he is still something of an unknown. 

RHP Cory Lewis
Lewis is the only player in this article currently on MLB.com’s top-30 list for the Twins; he takes the very last spot. Owning a spinny fastball, downer curve, and a knuckleball—yes, a knuckleball—Lewis has been nearly as good as Matthews in Fort Myers’ rotation, punching out 34.4% of hitters while walking them 7.6% of the time, still elite peripherals for nearly any pitcher. You may remember Lewis after he helped toss a combined no-hitter for Fort Myers a few days ago.

INF Jorel Ortega
This could have just been a “the Mighty Mussels are better than we probably gave them credit for” piece. Yet another 2022 draft pick, this one a 6th-rounder out of Tennessee, Ortega has struck the ball impressively at a pitching-dominated level, putting up a 152 wRC+ off a .295/.409/.487 slash line—mere points away from the classic .300/.400/.500 line reserved for the truly special hitters.

C Andrew Cossetti
.330/.462/.607 served as Cossetti’s Fort Myers slash line before Minnesota decided to stop terrorizing Florida State League pitchers with such offensive domination. A product of St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia (the same college as Jamie Moyer; what a pull), Cossetti quickly earned a promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he will help stimulate a Kernels team looking for some extra thump. Cossetti was yet another 2022 draft selection.

OF Kala’i Rosario
After a mediocre season with Fort Myers in 2022, Rosario's prospect status atrophied as the former 2020 draft selection had yet to have an overwhelmingly impressive season in the minors. Things have turned around so far in 2023. Rosario shaved a few points off his strikeout rate, replaced them with walks, and improved his isolated power to above the major-league average (.191). He’s currently holding a 153 wRC+; he may inch back onto top prospect lists soon. 

C Noah Cardenas
Few people have more of an interest in Cardenas than I do. Catchers who can hit are rare; catchers who walk more than they strike out are unicorns. Cardenas may not spout a horn on his head, but his 2023 play looks an awful lot like his 2022 line: an elite walk rate buoying competent average and power capabilities. His isolated power is down a little (.119 from .152), but the hitting package still looks excellent.

RHP Pierson Ohl
Remember the comment about Matthews’ walk rate? Here’s the guy who has him beaten. Ohl has walked four batters over 35 2/3 innings, good for a rate of 2.6%. That’s unheard of. He may actually throw too many strikes for his own good—as evident by his ERA far elevated above his peripherals—but the Twins have shown a consistent ability to coax effectiveness from command-first repertoires like Ohl. 

Check almost any major stat, and you'll find similar results; the Twins' minor league system is succeeding off the backs of "lesser" prospects, not the players you would most expect to lead the pack.

What do we make of this? It can be difficult to rank freshly drafted players, especially those taken lower in the draft, so the lack of prospect respect for these players is unsurprising. They just need time. For the others? Either they never commanded attention in the first place, or the industry opinion altered and never recovered. No matter—these players and their performances should be appreciated, and hopefully, they can keep it up as the season marches on.

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[gman]

I would add Ricardo Olivar,  21 yo Mighty Mussels  catcher to your list of little known players.  After his FCL stat line last year of 349/442/1047 he is at Ft Myers this year with decent numbers at 281/355/777. As primarily a catcher he is unusual in that he played across the outfield, including center. This is his third season in the system and he has only had 2 errors. However on the downside he has only thrown out 10 of 70 base runners. Don't know if that his drawback or if the pitchers at the lower levels don't hold runners on very well.

He is also listed as the FCL Most Valuable award winner. I don't know if that was just for the Twins or the whole league last year.

[jmlease1]

Still not really sure how to rate Matthews or Lewis; they're doing everything asked of them, but as college pitchers in A-ball I don't exactly know if it's that meaningful against this level of competition. I do love the fact that Lewis throws a knuckleball. Cossetti is a little bit in this boat too; if he can stick at catcher and keep hitting now that he's been promoted he could be an interesting riser in Twins Prospect Rankings (but he's basically never going to make a national prospect list unless he starts putting up extreme video game stats; they always downgrade older players)

Kala'i Rosario is someone I thought should have been pushed back into the prospect rankings when the update was done, and he's only confirmed that opinion. He's hitting well, he's only 20, and all the numbers around him look good. K's are more manageable, walks are up, power is looking good and might project to more, and he's making good contact. 

[DocBauer]

I'm not surprised by this list, for the most part. Ft Myers is filled with members of the 2022 draft class that barely sniffed the field after being selected. I'm not saying there isn't real talent and upside amongst them, but you would have expected them to perform well at low A to begin their careers. And while the Twins have shown a much more aggressive promotion strategy than we saw for decades, it probably would have been unwise to push so many of their draft class straight to high A for their pro introduction.

Glad to see Mathews and Cossetti already moved up. I would have to believe Lewis, Ortega, and LH Zachary Veen should follow very soon. The problem is, there has to be an opening at the next level to do so, and then you need someone to take their spot at Ft Myers. The draft is weeks away and the FCL is just about to get underway. So the Ft Myers promotion watch is going to be interesting to follow for sure.

Cardenas hasn't set the world on fire since being drafted a couple of years ago, but he's hit, and shown some great OB ability and a great feel for the strike zone. If that knowledge and feel for the zone leads to a little more aggression, we should see the BA climb as well as his power numbers. I've had my eye on him since he was drafted and think he's got a legitimate shot to be a ML catcher if his backstop skills can match his bat potential. Top 30 list next offseason?

Rosario has really impressed. I thought they pushed him...and a few others...harder than I expected to high A this year. But they saw some things they really liked in ST and played him quite a bit. He's been pretty solid and looks to be improving.

[jkcarew]

In general, Twins hitting prospects at A+ are actually YOUNGER than those at A. This is skewing perceptions based on stats alone.

[Doctor Wu]

Very informative article! Cardenas seems like an intriguing  catching prospect, and we certainly need more of those and soon! Also pleased with how Zebby Matthews has pitched this year, and you gotta love the name!

[jimbo92107]

Wow, that swing of Andrew Cossetti's will get him promoted very quickly. See that bat whip through the zone? See how the ball rockets all the way to the wall? See his speed, and his muscular build? Outstanding mlb catcher is his future. I hope he's a good catcher...