Twins Offense Through 44 Games

[stringer bell]

I was thinking about posting in the thread that said the Twins had the worst team batting average, but actually maybe the discussion should be on the Twins' overall offense. 

The Twins rank 11th in MLB in runs scored (and runs scored per game). Their team OPS is 16th and it is fueled by slugging--they rank 24th in OBP and 25th in team batting average, but 14th in slugging percentage. The team ranks seventh in homers and is among the top teams in strikeouts.

Run production, given the other numbers and their dreadful performance with the bases loaded, is actually really good. However, on balance, I don't think the Twins' offensive performance has been quite that good. First of all, they haven't been consistent. The Twins have had a high number of poor offensive games. I think I saw that they scored three runs or fewer in 20 of their 44 games to date, which happens to equal the number of games that they lost. Secondly, the Twins seemingly have had too many innings giving momentum to their opponents. Striking out the side or failing to score with the bases loaded and no outs are two pretty sure-fire ways to encourage the opponent. Thirdly, the offense doesn't put much pressure on defenses. The lack of a substantial running game and waiting for three-run homers doesn't force the other guys to make plays. 

There isn't much variety or diversity in the Twins run-scoring approach. Having more ways to score runs and better ways to get runs in bunches would make them a tougher opponent. We've seen glimpses of using other means to score runs of late--a couple of squeeze bunts and some intentional attempts to advance runners by hitting balls to the right side of the infield and even (gasp!) a few stolen bases. It's also more fun to watch although I'm told that certain people dig the long ball. 

[Vanimal46]

The Twins don’t have a leadoff hitter or a cleanup hitter and it shows on a daily basis. Even when the lineup is mixed around, those 2 specific spots are taken by someone who has no business being in that role. 

The only hope we have to fill the leadoff role is Lewis coming up and producing right away in June. If they’re serious about winning playoff games, they’ll have to make a trade in July for a middle of the order bat. 

[dxpavelka]

Offense has been solid of late, but if you normalize the last week, you're once again looking at a club that is on pace to score less than 700 runs which puts you at 85-88 wins, and IF you make the post-season, an early exit from such.  The only hope is that Kirilloff stays healthy and hot and one or more of Lewis, Lee and / or Miranda comes up and makes a splash .  Kind of scary when your leading RBI guy is hitting .225.  At least your 10 home run guy is hitting .216

 

[RickOShea]

The sayings , "Know your role, or stay in you lane", are descriptive IMO, of this Twins team.  We have too many single hitters trying to hit homers.  We have guys who fail to protect the plate on 2 strike counts, and guys who try to go deep on pitches they  can't pull.  What we have is a team of free swingers, with minimal and consistent power.  I know may major leaguers feel that they need to hit the ball hard somewhere, and it will find a hole.  But for many, the homerun swing results in missing the ball, popping it up, rolling over on it, and pulling your head off watching the ball.  

A more controlled approach, making solid contact, knowing when to chance driving the ball, could make a difference.  While seeing the homerun is exciting, the flailing strikeout is not.

[wsnydes]

This offense has been feast or famine for two seasons now.  If they could just average out the peaks and the valleys, they'd probably do a lot of damage with how the pitching staff is performing.  I'm still hoping that once things settle in a bit that they can start to produce more consistently.  I think getting Lewis in the lineup and at 3B would help quite a bit.  Kirilloff looks like his wrist is in the rearview mirror.  We've seen what the offense can do when Kirilloff and Larnach are hitting in the same game.  That's a nice tease, but I want to see that with regularity.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, wsnydes said:

This offense has been feast or famine for two seasons now.  If they could just average out the peaks and the valleys, they'd probably do a lot of damage with how the pitching staff is performing.  I'm still hoping that once things settle in a bit that they can start to produce more consistently.  I think getting Lewis in the lineup and at 3B would help quite a bit.  Kirilloff looks like his wrist is in the rearview mirror.  We've seen what the offense can do when Kirilloff and Larnach are hitting in the same game.  That's a nice tease, but I want to see that with regularity.  

Really, really, need CC and Polanco to hit like they can. That would be huge. 

[wsnydes]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Really, really, need CC and Polanco to hit like they can. That would be huge. 

Agreed.  I think the "kids" are going to be more important though.  I think the veterans will eventually start working towards their typical production.  But if this lineup is really going to click, CC and Polanco need to hit too.  

[Craig Arko]

49 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Agreed.  I think the "kids" are going to be more important though.  I think the veterans will eventually start working towards their typical production.  But if this lineup is really going to click, CC and Polanco need to hit too.  

And Buxton.

[wsnydes]

3 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

And Buxton.

Yeah, but he's not underperforming like CC and Polanco are.  He could be more consistent though.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

 With the large number of strikeouts, they cannot afford to sit and wait for 3-run homers.  Keep up the small ball combined with the three-outcome approach to provide a blended style of offense.

I might think just the opposite--if these guys are so prone to strike out, small ball wouldn't work well. As we've seen with the bases loaded stuff, getting runners to third doesn't guarantee scoring runs. Home runs do guarantee scoring runs.

On the flip side, somehow reducing strikeouts and increasing contact would be desirable, especially if the power numbers don't wither and die. 

[chpettit19]

Twins still need an elite bat. Buxton may touch elite numbers, but he's too streaky. Correa will bounce back and end with some nice numbers, which means he lit it up for a good stretch, but he's not elite, just elite for a SS. Polanco needs to be a 120ish OPS+ hitter. But, to be a real threat, the Twins need someone to be a consistent, elite bat.

Their options are Kirilloff and Lewis internally, or a trade. I don't know who'll end up being available, but I'd like them to be involved in talks on any big bats that are on the block this year. Even if Lewis and Kirilloff are laying claim to top 5 spots in the order. They need someone with a 140+ OPS+/wRC+. But getting Correa looking even semi-consistent would be a nice start to fixing things.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, RickOShea said:

The sayings , "Know your role, or stay in you lane", are descriptive IMO, of this Twins team.  We have too many single hitters trying to hit homers.  We have guys who fail to protect the plate on 2 strike counts, and guys who try to go deep on pitches they  can't pull.  What we have is a team of free swingers, with minimal and consistent power.  I know may major leaguers feel that they need to hit the ball hard somewhere, and it will find a hole.  But for many, the homerun swing results in missing the ball, popping it up, rolling over on it, and pulling your head off watching the ball.  

A more controlled approach, making solid contact, knowing when to chance driving the ball, could make a difference.  While seeing the homerun is exciting, the flailing strikeout is not.

Sounds a lot like TK-speak and I don't mean that as a criticism. In the Dodger series, we saw two players (Farmer and Vazquez) try to and succeed hitting the ball to the right side. Farmer advanced a guy who scored without a hit and Vazquez got a single. When you're down a couple in the late innings, a single or a walk  might be just as good as a homer and much easier to get. I think there is something to be said for a "two-strike approach". 

That said, it is hard to make contact in today's game. Even Luis Arraez strikes out more than the old timers did. More velocity and different and sharper breaking balls makes it a tough job. Maybe some moderation in the approach at the plate can help the players make a bit more contact with really damaging exit velo and hard-hit rate.

[Riverbrian]

I'd love to see a player step up and produce a 4 for 5 day. Just an indication that someone... anyone is locked in for a day... just a day. 

And then maybe... just maybe... that 4 for 5 day could lead to a 10 for 20 stretch. And then maybe someone will can pickup that vibe and maybe... just maybe. 

I believe they call it a spark. 

I'll take one... I don't recall anybody having a day like that this year. 

I'm ready for it. 

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd love to see a player step up and produce a 4 for 5 day. Just an indication that someone... anyone is locked in for a day... just a day. 

And then maybe... just maybe... that 4 for 5 day could lead to a 10 for 20 stretch. And then maybe someone will can pickup that vibe and maybe... just maybe. 

I believe they call it a spark. 

I'll take one... I don't recall anybody having a day like that this year. 

I'm ready for it. 

I don't think a Twin has had a 4-hit day. Kirilloff was 3-3 with two homers in one of the Cubs games.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It seems like the Twins are very streaky with their hitting.  I don't know if there is a stat to say that, but the bats kind of go dead and one or two people hit.  Then the next game, they go dead and one or two other people hit.  Occasionally, there is a break out game - like against the Cubs, but more often it is the struggle to score three or more runs.  It's kind of a zombie offense. 

If Polanco and Correa start to really hit well, that will help a lot, assuming others don't stop hitting.  It's not so much a "big" bat that is needed, just a consistent one.  They need a guy who is going to hit in two out of three games and have a few multi hit games. Just not sure who that could be that will become available this summer.

The optimist in me is saying look how bad this offense is and yet we are in first place in the division because of excellent pitching (even with the bullpen situation not exactly clicking).  The pessimist, however, says that it will lead to a quick exit from the playoffs. 

[Riverbrian]

53 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don't think a Twin has had a 4-hit day. Kirilloff was 3-3 with two homers in one of the Cubs games.

Yep... And then pulled before he get that 4th. ☹️

[LA Vikes Fan]

Many of us called thi s lineup "2 bats hort" in the pre-season, and that is what it's turned out to be. Someone said we're a leadoff and cleanup hitter short - I couldn't agree more. I also don't think we have the prospect depth to trade for any big bat that might become available. It's more likely that we'll trade for a mid-level bullpen piece. I think what we have now is what we'll run with this year. 

I do think there's hope. Lewis could become that front of the order/leadoff spark, Correa getting back to normal would be a good #2, and Kirilloff is looking like a #3.  Can Buxton be the cleanup guy? Yeah, I think he can. If that works, now everybody else gets to go where they should go - Polanco in the 5 hole, Gallo, Larnach and/or Kepler hitting 6 and 8, Famer at 7 of we can get Buxton into CF or Taylor if not, and the C 9.  That lineup can work IF Lewis looks like last year, Kirilloff is the bat we think he can be, Correa, Polanco. and Buxton hit like we expect based on track record, and the rest just are what they've always been. Even better if Larnach or Wallner has that breakthrough this year. 

I'm cautiously optimistic but there are a lot of IFs.  

[Eris]

The Twins offense is quite offensive.   As per Fangraphs, the Twins have 1 player who has contributed more than 1 WAR.  The Rays have 8 players. This is not the best measurement because WAR includes defense contributions, but still it is an indication how poor a number of Twins players have done for the season. 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

The Twins offense is quite offensive.   As per Fangraphs, the Twins have 1 player who has contributed more than 1 WAR.  The Rays have 8 players. This is not the best measurement because WAR includes defense contributions, but still it is an indication how poor a number of Twins players have done for the season. 

And the Twins have a good defense too.

[Brandon]

What the offense needs is 3 or 4 1.200 OPS hitters with atleast a .450 OBP.  That would solve most of our scoring problems I think.  In all seriousness I think Killeroff is a big part of the solution.  As is getting Polanco back.  So now we need more on base percentage and we need a better hitting 3B then what Miranda provided.  Farmer fixes that to a degree for now, but Lewis or a relaxed Miranda will give us that boost hopefully then it’s just either Correa hits better or gets moved to a lower spot in the lineup.  I don’t care but something needs to give.  If Correa speed isn’t lower than last year, I expect him to return to normal.  

[Nine of twelve]

On 5/19/2023 at 12:35 PM, Mike Sixel said:

That would be huge. 

Jumbo! Ginormous! Woo! Woo!

[Nine of twelve]

6 hours ago, Eris said:

The Twins offense is quite offensive.   As per Fangraphs, the Twins have 1 player who has contributed more than 1 WAR.  The Rays have 8 players. This is not the best measurement because WAR includes defense contributions, but still it is an indication how poor a number of Twins players have done for the season. 

It's also not the best measurement to compare us to Tampa Bay. They are having a season that is such an outlier that it is borderline bizarre.

[ICTwin25]

Lolz why are people in this thread throwing Polanco under the bus? He's been hurt and is hurt again. His surface level split line produces the 5th best OPS so why throw shade at him? Correa is the one who deserves all the finger pointing as he flat out sucks. Same goes for Christian Vazquez, Miranda, Gordon, and Kepler. It's a shame that folks employed by the team still think Kepler has something.

[mikelink45]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:16 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

With their offense, the Twins need to try anything and everything to score runs.  I applaud their recent increase in stolen base attempts and squeeze plays.  With the large number of strikeouts, they cannot afford to sit and wait for 3-run homers.  Keep up the small ball combined with the three-outcome approach to provide a blended style of offense.

Hopefully the Buxton injury does not remove the aggressive base running again.