Gallo

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I was one who was cautiously optimistic about the signing of Gallo.   We got the full Gallo experience in the first series against Kansas City,  several strike outs,  a grounder that in a normal defense would have been a hit to right, but in a new shift arrangement the right fielder was playing a rover position and fumbled the ball and Gallo was safe at first.  In the third game Gallo carried the team,  with 3 hits (double and 2 homers) and tacked on a walk.   In looking at Gallo's stats against teams he feasted on Kansas City and Detroit the last 2 years.   Essentially what we saw was this trend continue to carryover.   I was impressed with the double to center,  If teams want to start deploying a rover right fielder,  a couple doubles to center will possible force teams to go with a more conventional defense against Gallo.   Overall I still think Gallo will be the player that I expected him to be,  a decent bit better stat wise than last year,  partially due to feasting on bad teams,  possibly a few extra hits due to seeing the shift less, even though teams may get creative like Kansas City did.  I doubt we see a 40 HR season like he has in the past,  but 25-30 seems doable.   

[nicksaviking]

I'm eating crow on Gallo after yesterday, but I don't think 25-30 HR is going to make him a productive hitter, I think he's going to need to be looking at 35-40. And that's not because HR drive in runs and are an awesome crowd pleaser, but we saw last year that without the top end HR production worrying opposing pitchers, his walk rate plummeted. It was still decent, but not at the elite levels he used to draw them at, which is what offset that horrific batting average.

I think he's going to need to get back to that 15-18% BB rate to have a reasonable OBP, and I think that walk rate is tied to his HR proclivity. 

[Vanimal46]

43 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm eating crow on Gallo after yesterday

Why? Unless you enjoy crow. It’s 3 games. It’s silly to make any proclamations in any direction right now. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Why? Unless you enjoy crow. It’s 3 games. It’s silly to make any proclamations in any direction right now. 

Well, it's kind of hard critiquing the guy after yesterday's game without attempting to be magnanimous about it.

 

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well, it's kind of hard critiquing the guy after yesterday's game without attempting to be magnanimous about it.

 

Or we can all just chill and play it out. Maybe he goes 0-12 or 12-12 this week. Who knows. 

Just saving you from having to vomit up crow

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

I am going to take it one game at time.  He had hell of a game yesterday and I enjoyed watching it.

[Craig Arko]

30 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Or we can all just chill and play it out. Maybe he goes 0-12 or 12-12 this week. Who knows. 

Just saving you from having to vomit up crow

Of course that’s true of anyone. Although I’d doubt Castro will get 12 at bats.

[CRF]

No doubt he had a nice game yesterday, but rest assured...he's going to have plenty of games where he takes an O-fer, and whiffs 3 times too. A lot more than the one or two homer games. It'll be feast or famine. Unfortunately, that's what you get with Gallo. 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Or we can all just chill and play it out. Maybe he goes 0-12 or 12-12 this week. Who knows. 

Just saving you from having to vomit up crow

I prefer crow and a side of 40 HR.

 

[mrtwinsfan]

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm eating crow on Gallo after yesterday, but I don't think 25-30 HR is going to make him a productive hitter, I think he's going to need to be looking at 35-40. And that's not because HR drive in runs and are an awesome crowd pleaser, but we saw last year that without the top end HR production worrying opposing pitchers, his walk rate plummeted. It was still decent, but not at the elite levels he used to draw them at, which is what offset that horrific batting average.

I think he's going to need to get back to that 15-18% BB rate to have a reasonable OBP, and I think that walk rate is tied to his HR proclivity. 

Odds of gallo ?? think he can get that KKK rate below 35/   percent  ?  your right about the walk rate,  and im old school with average,  is asking for 200  to much,  to me if ya cant at least hit 200  means Adios, 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Odds of gallo ?? think he can get that KKK rate below 35/   percent  ?  your right about the walk rate,  and im old school with average,  is asking for 200  to much,  to me if ya cant at least hit 200  means Adios, 

His career is 37% k-rate, 14.8% bb-rate, .200 batting average, .472 slug, 111 wRC+.

after 4 monstrous games he’s 28.6% k-rate, 7.1% bb-rate, .308 batting average, 1.077 slug. Yup that 264 wRC+ is totally sustainable :)
 

clearly he’s going to regress to the mean, but if the athletic article about Pop working with him to get more contact is actually getting results, where he can sustain better than .200 batting average, and he can get his bb% improved a bit, he could very well be exactly what the FO saw and not what I predicted. 
 

as Nick said, I’ll happily eat crow on Gallo if he has a very good season, but it’s a tad early.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Or we can all just chill and play it out. Maybe he goes 0-12 or 12-12 this week. Who knows. 

He looks like he may have slightly better contact rates.  Effectively,  for me he has 5 hits on the season for a .333 batting average,  I am giving him an extra that was stated as an error (LOL a .350 BA and .420 OBP, yeah we know that's not going to last).   I do think he will have better contacts rates due to a modified swing.  However,  he is still a bad ball pitcher.  He feasts on meatballs, that is effectively what he was served yesterday.   I do think he is player that is also effected by his emotions and when a funk may struggle to get out of it.  What this early season is doing is giving him some confidence.  It is a low pressure situation, hitting 7th in the line up and letting him continue to work on his stroke.   Someone else stated that as the home runs go up his walks as well.  I do agree on the home run rate, helping his walk rate as pitchers will be more willing to take a free pass than give him a fastball down the middle of the plate.  However, if you can get a .240 to .250  BA Gallo(due to less shift, less pressure and a modified swing), with his power and the additional walks due to pitchers wanting to avoid him,  then Gallo becomes a true weapon.   Look at it this way,  I still compare Gallo to Arraez,  Arreaz is having an otherworldly start.  BA over .500 and OBP over .600 and yet his OPS+ is only 210.    Gallo is sitting at 270 OPS+.  Both will cool off,  but so far the gamble on Gallo is paying off.   

[chpettit19]

Gallo is going to have some cold spells that will make everyone who didn't like the signing say, or think. "I told you so!" He'll have some hot streaks (like right now) that make those of us who didn't hate it say "see, he's a wonderful risk to take." Chances are he ends the year with a BA in the low 200s, 35+ bombs, a bunch of walks, and bunch of punch-outs. If he's suddenly hitting in the high 200s with power and low K% we need to both lock Popkins into a lifetime deal, and write a very nice letter to the folks who limited the shift.

But, with his fielding and base running, we don't need him to be a high 200s, high power, high walks, low K guy. Gallo hitting .210 with 38 bombs, 100 walks, and 200 Ks in the 7 hole with wonderful defense and base running is an absolute win for the Twins. And it's entirely reasonable that the year plays out that way. If he ends April with double digit HRs he's well on his way to being well worth the $11M.

[August J Gloop]

Gallo strikes me as a guy who does better when he's a bigger part of a team. The tasks of leadership can distract from the poisonous thoughts of failure. Obviously, C4, Buck and Sonny are in charge but it's starting to look like Gallo is a deputy of sorts. You can see in many of the crowd shots that younger players gravitate to him. 

I doubt we'll see a .300 average. but .220/.360/.500, a gold glove at first, and some tight leadership would be pretty tidy for 11M. 

[Twins GFP]

As with any true 3 outcome player, the offensive value comes in how those three ratio's play out,  The walk rate will be huge.  Any drop in K % and any increase in BA over .200 should just be considered icing.  The power is still there.

People need to remember this was a 1 yr/$11m low end OF starter and contingency plan for Kiriloff, which has proven to be needed.

We are going to see a lot of feast or famine.  We all just hope to see more feast,

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

His career is 37% k-rate, 14.8% bb-rate, .200 batting average, .472 slug, 111 wRC+.

after 4 monstrous games he’s 28.6% k-rate, 7.1% bb-rate, .308 batting average, 1.077 slug. Yup that 264 wRC+ is totally sustainable :)
 

clearly he’s going to regress to the mean, but if the athletic article about Pop working with him to get more contact is actually getting results, where he can sustain better than .200 batting average, and he can get his bb% improved a bit, he could very well be exactly what the FO saw and not what I predicted. 
 

as Nick said, I’ll happily eat crow on Gallo if he has a very good season, but it’s a tad early.

Gallo is the classic feast or famine player but I can see him improving with the rule changes and some better coaching.  I'd love to get .225/.345/.475 from Gallo. That would come from raising his career batting average 25 points, adding that to his career OBP and keeping his slugging % at his career level. That may be doable with the elimination of the shift giving him 10-15 BA points and some improvement from the hitting coach. Keep hitting him in the 7 hole - don't dare move him up - and that's a viable player when you throw in his defense. Much below that and it's very hard to justify playing him every day and enduring his 150-200 strikeouts a year.

[Dman]

His weakness last year seemed to be balls low in the zone and I think all three home runs he hit looked like fastballs low in the zone I think one might not have been super low.  So the book appears to have been keep the fastballs low in the zone where he can't reach them and then go with breaking stuff.  IIRC two of three HR;s were on first pitch fastballs.  I see more first pitch breaking balls in Gallo's future.  I think the book on pitching him is going to change so we will see if can keep this up or if he becomes a K machine again.

Hoping at @nicksavikingis correct and he just keeps hitting HR's and pitchers try to pitch around him.  If that happens he will have a very successful season. It is early so hard to say how this shakes out but I am just happy to see some early season success.

[Trov]

It is 4 games into the season.  People please stop drawing any long term expectations based on 4 games.  No matter which side of the coin you are with Gallo, that he will be productive or that he will be a waste, I think we need more than 4 games.  Last 2 games he helped make the games blowouts with 3 run bombs.  We brought him in hoping he would hit those 3 run bombs and play top defense. 4 games is too early to draw any conclusion on if he was good signing or not. Check back at end of month to have some idea, but closer to break to really draw conclusion. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Gallo is going to have some cold spells that will make everyone who didn't like the signing say, or think. "I told you so!" He'll have some hot streaks (like right now) that make those of us who didn't hate it say "see, he's a wonderful risk to take." Chances are he ends the year with a BA in the low 200s, 35+ bombs, a bunch of walks, and bunch of punch-outs. If he's suddenly hitting in the high 200s with power and low K% we need to both lock Popkins into a lifetime deal, and write a very nice letter to the folks who limited the shift.

But, with his fielding and base running, we don't need him to be a high 200s, high power, high walks, low K guy. Gallo hitting .210 with 38 bombs, 100 walks, and 200 Ks in the 7 hole with wonderful defense and base running is an absolute win for the Twins. And it's entirely reasonable that the year plays out that way. If he ends April with double digit HRs he's well on his way to being well worth the $11M.

If he hits 10+ home runs in the first month,  he will have produced 50% of what he did last year in a full season.  It shows what a little more contact can do.  We are still in the SSS,  but I remain fairly optimistic he will well outperform his 11+ million salary.  He has already provided tremendous flexibility and insurance at 1st base.   

Gallo's projections were BA in the 190's ,   around 23 HR,  and 56 RBI's with OPS around .720.     All we want is 2022 to be an aberration and he is a .200 or better hitter.  If he reverts back to .160 batting average then we will several hitless days to look forward to.  If he pushes to .225-.250 you have an elite hitter with his power.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

33 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is 4 games into the season.  People please stop drawing any long term expectations based on 4 games.  No matter which side of the coin you are with Gallo, that he will be productive or that he will be a waste, I think we need more than 4 games.  Last 2 games he helped make the games blowouts with 3 run bombs.  We brought him in hoping he would hit those 3 run bombs and play top defense. 4 games is too early to draw any conclusion on if he was good signing or not. Check back at end of month to have some idea, but closer to break to really draw conclusion. 

The only thing we can compare it to is his best 4 game stretch last year was 5-15,  6 rbi and 3 homeruns,  with 2 of the games against us included his best 2 game stretch and 2 home runs.  He has already met or bested his best stretch at any point last year.   

[cHawk]

I remember referring to Gallo as "essentially the same player as Sano." What we've seen over the past two games from Gallo basically emulates a Miguel Sano hot streak. Gallo will be hot at times. He will also be cold at times. At the end of the day, he's a three-true-outcomes hitter who makes a good lineup better and a bad lineup worse.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I remember referring to Gallo as "essentially the same player as Sano." What we've seen over the past two games from Gallo basically emulates a Miguel Sano hot streak. Gallo will be hot at times. He will also be cold at times. At the end of the day, he's a three-true-outcomes hitter who makes a good lineup better and a bad lineup worse.

I think "essentially the same HITTER as Sano" is the more accurate statement. Gallo is a significantly better fielder and base runner than Sano. Making him a much better PLAYER than Sano. But offensively they are certainly about as close as you can get.

[mrtwinsfan]

6 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Gallo is the classic feast or famine player but I can see him improving with the rule changes and some better coaching.  I'd love to get .225/.345/.475 from Gallo. That would come from raising his career batting average 25 points, adding that to his career OBP and keeping his slugging % at his career level. That may be doable with the elimination of the shift giving him 10-15 BA points and some improvement from the hitting coach. Keep hitting him in the 7 hole - don't dare move him up - and that's a viable player when you throw in his defense. Much below that and it's very hard to justify playing him every day and enduring his 150-200 strikeouts a year.

See todays Line up   , when i seen it , i had a Rocco moment again