Rumor: Falvey says "Bullpen not a priority"

[Danchat]

I think they could use another arm or two, but they've made it clear they hate paying relievers and they're also not very good at identifying them on the market, so I get why. Gotta hope Lopez rebounds and Alcala stays healthy, plus perhaps a couple young arms stepping it up (Winder/Sands/Henriquez). You also have to wonder how much longer Thielbar can keep pitching so well.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

None - it is the attitude not the desire to sign a high priced RP at this point when everything is picked over.  What I want is to replace Pagan with a young arm that can learn to be a good BP pitcher. 

So, no real issue at all. Just, what? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Danchat said:

I think they could use another arm or two, but they've made it clear they hate paying relievers and they're also not very good at identifying them on the market, so I get why. Gotta hope Lopez rebounds and Alcala stays healthy, plus perhaps a couple young arms stepping it up (Winder/Sands/Henriquez). You also have to wonder how much longer Thielbar can keep pitching so well.

Which free agent do you want? That you are sure it's better than internal options, many of whom have options?

[Danchat]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which free agent do you want? That you are sure it's better than internal options, many of whom have options?

Chafin would certainly be an upgrade, obviously price is the issue there. I'd also take Fulmer back since it appears that teams aren't willing to pay what he's asking for. I'd ditch Megill in a heartbeat, and of course Pagan too but we know he's staying. I wouldn't be upset if we don't add another arm with our salary around $150M, but it also wouldn't shock me if we reach midseason and we need to make a couple bullpen trades to keep it together.

[IndianaTwin]

20 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In 2021, the Brewers were wildly successful with a six man rotation and would have done it again in 2022 if not for injuries.

In 2022, the Astros were wildly successful with a six man rotation.

Honestly, I think the bigger indictment of the front office is that they're not strongly considering a six man rotation.

Have they made any statements to suggest they are not? 

[IndianaTwin]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

2020 and 2021 are rounding errors from the average. Is this really a concern?

And as an average, 2022 was greatly affected by Archer. Take out his 4.1 innings per start and the average goes up nearly .2 innings.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which free agent do you want? That you are sure it's better than internal options, many of whom have options?

There are several better than Paddack who is currently injured and out for months. The Twins used 38 pitchers last year.

[LonelyseatinMOA]

22 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Yeah I don't want to see Ober going to the pen, I feel like he's pretty obviously more valuable as starting depth and, you know, a starter who's still going to be here in two years.

I like Winder, and would prefer to see him succeed as a starter but I'm pretty skeptical of his shoulder holding up to the workload.

As a starter Winder, like Jax, also has a fastball that gets crushed. Last year hitters slugged .713 713! He should move to the pen, focus on throwing sliders and add velocity to the fastball to make it less terrible 

[sun]

Just my personal opinion but I'm hoping that Maeda proves himself this year and resigns with the Twins next year. He had an excellent year as a Twin before his injury and he's an elite athlete. His age shouldn't get in the way of resigning him if he can pick up where he left off.

I also like McGill. I think that he has a strong arm and good velocity. I'm not so sure about Gray & Mahle in the future yet even though folks rate them highly. We'll see if they can deliver this year. I'm looking forward to Varland coming up and there will be more free agent pitchers & prospects available next year.

[Mike Sixel]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are several better than Paddack who is currently injured and out for months. The Twins used 38 pitchers last year.

What? Paddock isn't planned for this year at all?

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What? Paddock isn't planned for this year at all?

You can change the roster when Paddack returns. Use the 60 day injured list to add depth now knowing they will need it later.

There is an obsession about the 26 man opening day roster when we should all realize the Twins will need the entire 40 man roster plus 10-20 other players to make it through the season. If they can add depth now they should. A pitcher they add now doesn't even have to be better than Emilio Pagan, he has to be better (at the start of the season) than the minor league free agents they have signed and the prospects that will begin the season in the minors. Any healthy pitcher who can put up a 4.50 ERA will be better than what they can get from Paddack in April. Find someone who lets them option Trevor Megill (and his lousy 81 ERA+ out of the bullpen) to AAA for a month.

David Price was good last year. Chad Kuhl could be a good candidate for a relief conversion. Michael Fulmer, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Hunter Strickland. Watch the waiver wire.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You can change the roster when Paddack returns. Use the 60 day injured list to add depth now knowing they will need it later.

There is an obsession about the 26 man opening day roster when we should all realize the Twins will need the entire 40 man roster plus 10-20 other players to make it through the season. If they can add depth now they should. A pitcher they add now doesn't even have to be better than Emilio Pagan, he has to be better (at the start of the season) than the minor league free agents they have signed and the prospects that will begin the season in the minors. Any healthy pitcher who can put up a 4.50 ERA will be better than what they can get from Paddack in April. Find someone who lets them option Trevor Megill (and his lousy 81 ERA+ out of the bullpen) to AAA for a month.

David Price was good last year. Chad Kuhl could be a good candidate for a relief conversion. Michael Fulmer, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Hunter Strickland. Watch the waiver wire.

They can't do that yet. He can't be put on the injured list yet. And they aren't DFA him. Which free agent should they sign?

[DJL44]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

They can't do that yet. He can't be put on the injured list yet. And they aren't DFA him. Which free agent should they sign?

They can do that in a few weeks. It's possible they already have an agreement with someone, they just can't announce it yet.

[Dman]

20 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I think it's a long-term business move and not a short-term competitive move, Maeda's contract incentivizes him to start. If they don't give him a chance to do it, it's going to be harder to get anyone to sign a similar incentive-laden contract in the future.

I would also add that I would like to see what he can do as a starter coming back.  In 2020 wasn't he essentially in the conversation for the Cy Young award?  That was a short year and I get we all are worried about his arm holding up but it seems prudent to see if he is the same or close to same starting pitcher as 2020 which would be better than Ober IMO.

They both have questions about how many innings they can throw but I would give Maeda the chance first if it were me.

[IndianaTwin]

It would be interesting to do a study of projected starting pitchers from the beginning of the season to Opening Day to see how many of them make it through spring training uninjured. By "projected starting pitcher," I'm not referring to those involved in battles for the No. 5 spot, but guys actually expected to start the season in the rotation. 

If the number is anywhere near 83.333 percent, it makes perfect sense to start spring training with a starting rotation of six, assuming that one will be injured by Opening Day and that the problem has resolved itself. And if they accidently all make it through spring training, then use all six for a couple times, knowing that one of them will almost certainly miss starts by mid to late April. 

For that reason, I think it's fine to assume that the "Opening Day rotation" is currently Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda and Ober. It will play itself out, and we'll see Nos. 7-10 soon enough.

[ChineseGandalf]

It seems like we have quite a few viable internal options and I think they are banking on healthy returns from some of the players that were out last year (Maeda, Alcala, maybe Paddack). Maeda particularly seems like he may make his way to the bullpen rather than back into the starting rotation. I think the Dodgers were doing that with him as well prior to that trade. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 2/2/2023 at 12:40 PM, Seth Stohs said:

How did Cleveland get such a strong, deep bullpen. I know they traded for Clase when he was a prospect and then had to wait out a suspension. Without looking, did they go out and spend on $6-10 million relievers, or did they develop their guys and at some point start turning things over to their own guys and trusting their development. 

Chafin would mean that Moran likely goes back to St. Paul. Chafin has nothing left. That move might make the Twins worse. I'm OK with Fulmer. Solid 6th/7th inning guy. 

At some point, you have to trust your guys. Otherwise, you don't get Duran, Moran, or even Griffin Jax. Was he better in 2021 than Sands and Winder were in 2022? Not saying they'll be the same success stories if moved to the 'pen, but can't shut down that possibility. 

I'm 100% onboard with churning through the bottom of the bullpen internally but you need a group in place that can hold water while you're shuffling. Duran is unquestionably reliable. We can probably include Jax and Thielbar on that list. Lopez, Pagan, and Alcala are all relatively major question marks and that's your middle tier. That leaves 2 spots (maybe 1 depending on what happens with the rotation) to sort through Sands, Megill, Henriquez, ect. Winder, or maybe even Balazovic transition and make an impact, but those won't be quick or easy decisions. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 2/2/2023 at 9:46 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I hate the idea of moving Ober to the pen

Do you think he's ever going to be consistently healthy enough to give you even 120 innings?

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Do you think he's ever going to be consistently healthy enough to give you even 120 innings?

I have no idea but given his size and delivery, I suspect a move to the bullpen won't be all that beneficial for him.

So I'm fine trying run him out there every fifth/sixth day for awhile longer to see what happens.

[KirbyDome89]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I have no idea but given his size and delivery, I suspect a move to the bullpen won't be all that beneficial for him.

So I'm fine trying run him out there every fifth/sixth day for awhile longer to see what happens.

Fair enough, I'm not in a hurry to delete starting options.

I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to consider handing him a rotation spot, and for that same reason he can't really be relied on as true depth either. It's a weird spot. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Fair enough, I'm not in a hurry to delete starting options.

I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to consider handing him a rotation spot, and for that same reason he can't really be relied on as true depth either. It's a weird spot. 

It is. I'm really skeptical of Ober being able to pitch one full season, much less multiple full seasons. He simply hasn't done it.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Do you think he's ever going to be consistently healthy enough to give you even 120 innings?

I mean, only 90 or so pitchers did that last year......I'd be happy with 80-100 this year and see what happens.

[solomon1930]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It is. I'm really skeptical of Ober being able to pitch one full season, much less multiple full seasons. He simply hasn't done it.

I know he was hurt most of last season but other than that did he have any prior issues?

I can't find anything from his time in the minors.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, solomon1930 said:

I know he was hurt most of last season but other than that did he have any prior issues?

I can't find anything from his time in the minors.  

He's had constant issues, can't remember the details. I think he only crossed 100 IP in one season... maybe 2021? And that was split between the minors and MLB.

[IndianaTwin]

8 hours ago, ChineseGandalf said:

It seems like we have quite a few viable internal options and I think they are banking on healthy returns from some of the players that were out last year (Maeda, Alcala, maybe Paddack). Maeda particularly seems like he may make his way to the bullpen rather than back into the starting rotation. I think the Dodgers were doing that with him as well prior to that trade. 

My memory of Maeda going to the bullpen for LA was that it was more about other quality guys returning from injury than it was about managing innings. He was the odd man out in the rotation, and after transitioning successfully the first time, they decided to do it again the next season.

But that's just my memory, and I don't have a good gene pool when it comes to memory loss.

[old nurse]

The post says the remaining relievers are marginal but solid relievers. I would guess that is also why they are not signed anywhere,  When it gets to the point that they will sign for the minimum for any team there will be signings

[h2oface]

I think they should try to find another Lopez. Hell, double down again...... double down on..... a couple Lopezes!

Add confusion to the minds of the opposition with Lopez, Lopez, Lopez and Lopez! If they had the same first names as one of the other two - gravy. I mean, it's confusing me already, and there are just 2. Go Lopez crazy!

[KirbyDome89]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, only 90 or so pitchers did that last year......I'd be happy with 80-100 this year and see what happens.

I think the final number was close enough where nearly every team would've had 4 starters hit that mark assuming an equal split. If Ober is that back end guy that you churn through, a la the bottom of the bullpen, that's fine. He's productive when healthy, he's cheap, and in theory there's always somebody to take his place in that role. 

80 innings is roughly 3 months worth of starts and he's cleared that mark once in 4 professional seasons. The fact that there's no telling how, or when, those innings will be available causes the value to tumble further. 

[Brandon]

If the bullpen is not a priority, why did we just resign Aaron Sanchez to compete for a spot?  Seems our bullpen is not fully set yet :)

[Parfigliano]

On 2/2/2023 at 8:15 AM, Unwinder said:

I wonder, does this signal that they're thinking about moving guys like Winder or maybe even Ober to the pen?

Looks like that is the plan