Has Tyler Duffey Turned a Corner for the Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The date was June 12 and the opponent was Tampa Bay. Tyler Duffey entered a game for the Minnesota Twins tasked with pitching the 8th inning of a 5-0 game. As he had done multiple times before, Duffey served up a dinger and it appeared as though there was no end in sight to his freefall. Maybe now he’s started to turn a corner?

 

There’s no denying that Tyler Duffey was once among the Twins most trustworthy relievers. Across 2019 and 2022, Duffey posted a solid 2.31 ERA in 80 appearances spanning 81 2/3 innings. His 12.5 K/9 was shiny, and it was backed by a curveball that kept hitters guessing even with a fastball that didn’t light up the radar gun. He allowed just 2.2 BB/9 and posted a WHIP below 1.00. His 2.91 FIP across that span also suggested this wasn’t a mirage.

Then 2021 happened. After being a primary setup man for former closer Taylor Rogers, Duffey blew up to the tune of a 3.18 ERA with a 3.49 FIP and a 4.19 xFIP. He lost roughly four strikeouts per nine innings, and double the number of free passes he was issuing. The chief concern was a velocity drop that happened in 2020 not rectifying itself. After holding around 94 mph on his fastball at his best, Duffey’s primary offering was down to just 92 mph. Without being able to throw a fastball by hitters, and the inability to locate his curveball, a recipe for disaster was realized.

On June 12, when Duffey served up the dinger against the Rays, it capped off a three-appearance run in which he’d allowed a home run every time out. Duffey recorded just 3 2/3 innings during the stretch and gave up a whopping seven runs on seven hits and three walks. His ERA sat at a season-worst 6.38. This wasn’t the first bad stretch either. Duffey took a blown save against the Mariners to end the second game of the season, and then he gave up a pair of homers to blow another game against the Royals a few weeks later.

At some point, the definition of insanity was going to be reached here. Everything Duffey was doing wasn’t working. Minnesota had pushed him into the lowest of leverage roles, and even when the moments were inconsequential his stuff didn’t generate outs.

Having used a changeup during his days as a starter, and crediting former pitching coach Wes Johnson for urging him to go back to it, Duffey changed things up. Up until June 12, Duffey had used his changeup just 1% of the time being a two-pitch pitcher with the fastball and curveball. He generated just a 10.7% whiff rate and was getting batters to chase 31.1% of the time.

Fast forward to where we are now and this is a different pitcher. Sure, the sample size is just 13 innings across 10 games, but that represents roughly one-third of his season. Duffey is still throwing his fastball 50% of the time, but he’s dropped the curveball usage and is pushing his changeup out 12.3% of the time. It’s resulted in a hard-hit rate of only 20.5% and has generated chase swings nearly 5% more often.

At some point, pitchers need to reinvent how their arsenal works with one another. It’s beyond clear Duffey’s velocity has been put out to pasture, but while his curveball was no longer the pitch it once was, turning back to a changeup that helped him as a starter made sense. There’s no denying the Twins need all they can get from the bullpen, and Duffey re-establishing himself as a usable piece would be a good thing.

There’s still reason for concern as Duffey has given up hits in eight of the ten appearances we’re talking about here, but keeping runs off the board is the larger point. He’s basically switched spots with Emilio Pagan in the pecking order, and the Twins righting Duffey’s bullpen-mate would be another strong step in helping to preserve leads.

 

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[Mark G]

Duffey always has had, and always will have his ups and downs.  I wouldn't consider him a closer, and even as the 8th inning guy he makes me nervous in a tight game, but I still want him in the 8 man mix.  He has a good demeanor and appears to be able to keep it during a long 162 game season.  He is one of those guys who needs to be managed well and put into situations designed to help him succeed.  I wonder at times if Rocco is the guy to do that, but with the right coaching staff he has the ability to be better than average.  It will be interesting to see if he stays next year or moves on.  

[Trov]

Every pitcher runs into issues and needs to make adjustments.  The main question is when will the league adjust to his new change up and how will that play out after that?  Will the league adjust and light up the change up, or will it keep them off enough to keep him on top?  Duffy is the perfect example of why pen pitchers are hard to predict because their bad outings are normally amplified compared to a starter.  A starter gives up 2 or 3 runs to first 3 or 4 batters and settles down to pitch 5 or 6 innings we do not say much, but a pen guy gives up 2 or 3 runs to first 3 or 4 guys and the outing was terrible.  

[jorgenswest]

He is worthy of a roster spot. They should not count on him to be a playoff caliber late inning pitcher. They need to make some trades.

[RJA]

I agree with Trov.  I fear that with his curve and fastballs both showing diminished quality, the change will only be a short term solution and the league will catch up.  Plus, he certainly has not been sharp enough in my opinion to warrant late inning work.  But then again, who do we have beyond Duran and Jax?

[Craig Arko]

Hope so. The trouble with this metaphor is: what’s around the next corner?

[joefish]

It seems like a recurring problem for Twins pitchers. Scott Baker comes to mind. Get ahead with strike one and strike two. But then what? Nibble a bit, then get blasted. Throw a meatball. Duffey struggles to put guys away.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I wouldn't bet on it. He still seems to be getting hit hard. He's just had a string of those balls going to fielders instead of gaps.

[Mark G]

8 minutes ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

I wouldn't bet on it. He still seems to be getting hit hard. He's just had a string of those balls going to fielders instead of gaps.

The other side of that argument is that with today's analytics and defenses positioning where the hitter most often hits it, if a pitcher makes his pitch the hitter likely will hit it where the fielders are positioned (barring home runs, that is).  As such, it doesn't really matter how hard someone hits it, if the pitcher induces him to hit it where his defense is.  When he is wild in the strike zone, and the hitter can move the ball around, then the pitcher will get lit up.  I pay more attention to where the ball is hit, not how hard.  

[BH67]

Duffey down, way down, better. so-so.

Buck's hitting: awful, torrid, awful again.  At least his BABIP appears abnormally low so far this year 

Thielbar.  Kepler.  Urshela.  Take your pick on the streakiness.

There is no middle with this team.  Past performance is clearly not an indicator of what is to come.

But Piranha Luis is here.  Starting pitching is very good when healthy despite off days from Gray and Smeltzer.  And they never give up.  That's enough for me to keep cheering loudly.

[bean5302]

Looked to me like he was tipping his pitches recently. Holding his glove close to his face for his curve and further away for fastballs, similar to the Peguero / Trout spectacle. If batters know a curve is coming, they can just lay off and sit on the fastball. I was amazed watching the curves the batters were laying off a couple weeks ago watching the game. It was absurd, like they knew what was coming when I started paying attention to Duffey's windup and delivery.

In any case, Duffey was dealing with like a 30% HR/FB rate which was ridiculous. The underlying metrics were decent.

I have no doubt a functional 3rd pitch could have helped get hitters to stop sitting on the pitch they want, but placement has always been a big issue for Duffey. 

[Blyleven2011]

Duffey knows this is his last season with the twins and his buddies ...

Duffey has no confidence in himself and you can see it plainly  when he is on the mound  .....

He is a mop up pitcher at this stage of his career  ....  

[Trov]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Looked to me like he was tipping his pitches recently. Holding his glove close to his face for his curve and further away for fastballs, similar to the Peguero / Trout spectacle. If batters know a curve is coming, they can just lay off and sit on the fastball. I was amazed watching the curves the batters were laying off a couple weeks ago watching the game. It was absurd, like they knew what was coming when I started paying attention to Duffey's windup and delivery.

In any case, Duffey was dealing with like a 30% HR/FB rate which was ridiculous. The underlying metrics were decent.

I have no doubt a functional 3rd pitch could have helped get hitters to stop sitting on the pitch they want, but placement has always been a big issue for Duffey. 

If tipping his pitches is accurate that is something players will pick up on and make you pay.  Unless you are super elite with your pitches if a hitter knows it is coming they will normally hit it. 

[Coach Wheels]

This bullpen is made up of maybe and hopefully with the exception of Duran and maybe Moran. Moran only because he's LH and there's always that. Lots of work to before we're serious about good they can be

[blindeke]

2 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

I wouldn't bet on it. He still seems to be getting hit hard. He's just had a string of those balls going to fielders instead of gaps.

Yeah I had to watch his last "save" from in between my fingers clutched over my face. 

[PatPfund]

The OP looks spot on. Duffey has looked much better these last few weeks. I remember him saying they were working on a new mix, and I internally scoffed, but it's working to get him serviceable again, and in this 'pen, that's gold. Now, can it hold!?

[joefish]

3 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

I wouldn't bet on it. He still seems to be getting hit hard. He's just had a string of those balls going to fielders instead of gaps.

That sounds like Pagan too. Is it just a string of bad luck?

[Mortimerkenny21]

A string of bad luck...a string of good luck?? Or he's tapped into the precise formula and reinvented himself for winning glory! Who knows?!?! Maybe the baseball overlords. I don't care what it is a long as it keeps working!

[Rosterman]

He has to pitch if he wants a job in 2023...anywhere.

Be interesting to see how his off-season pans out. But if the Twins felt Rogers was overpaid, what does that say about Duffey?

 But, who knows. He might become the temporary closer the Twins need!

[Minny505]

3 hours ago, joefish said:

That sounds like Pagan too. Is it just a string of bad luck?

I heard Eno Sarris comment on one of his podcasts a few weeks ago that he is super frustrated with Pagan because he would be elite if he would just stop throwing the cutter.

That's all. Stop throwing the cutter and he would be an excellent reliever.

It has horrible stuff+ and command+ ratings in his system. His other offerings are above-average to wicked-good.

I don't understand his (Pagan's) stubborness on continuing to use that pitch. It is one of the worst pitches in MLB.

[Aerodeliria]

Here's my take or Bill Murray's:

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/b488baca-6345-4694-aadb-3bf87e8f9320

 

[ashbury]

11 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

I wouldn't bet on it. He still seems to be getting hit hard. He's just had a string of those balls going to fielders instead of gaps.

Made me look.  In this most recent string of success, in 10 games his ERA of 0.00 is built on an OPS-against of .493.  Surely that's not a level of performance that is sustainable; but I note that his batting average on balls in play is a very conventional .303 which does not by itself suggest a sequence of nothing but at'em balls.

[bean5302]

Since June 12th.
Exit velocity = 86.2mph
Hard Hit = 24.2%
Barrel Rate = 6.1%
SwStr = 11.9%
K% = 25.0%
BB% = 6.3%

If you feel like Duffey has been hit hard and has gotten lucky lately, overall, there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence of that.