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Paddack had Tommy John surgery. Out for 2022.


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Hope Paddack has success and fully recovers to have a decent MLB career. Players really put their entire selves into getting that shot for an MLB run; it is tough. Players have come back after multiple TJ's and good luck to Chris Paddack.

The trade with San Diego was quite a gamble for the Twins. They are essentially paying $11 million for Pagan. There was prior knowledge of Paddack's injury and hopefully he can pitch again in a Twins uniform. Gambling can be fun ... sometimes.

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5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hope Paddack has success and fully recovers to have a decent MLB career. Players really put their entire selves into getting that shot for an MLB run; it is tough. Players have come back after multiple TJ's and good luck to Chris Paddack.

The trade with San Diego was quite a gamble for the Twins. They are essentially paying $11 million for Pagan. There was prior knowledge of Paddack's injury and hopefully he can pitch again in a Twins uniform. Gambling can be fun ... sometimes.

So true! I hope Paddack can provide something by the middle of next year, and he has a successful and speedy recovery. The Twins get to pay for Rogers and Pagan to pitch this year, and for Paddack's medicals.

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Absolutely best wishes to him and his recovery, that is most important, of course.

From a purely baseball standpoint, I have to think about the recent advances in TJ surgery and I think about Hill coming back so soon. There is a chance Maeda pitches by the end of this year. Enlow had surgery early last year, I want to say April, and mid May he's now made a pair of milb starts. I think getting the surgery now is smart. There is a real chance he's ready by June in 2023, July at the latest. He's only 26yo and can still have a nice career ahead of him.

WITHOUT re-examing the trade yet again...not my intention...again from a purely baseball perspective, the Twins will still have control for 1 and 1/2 years. And nothing says an extension couldn't happen if he comes back strong.

But best of luck for a full recovery!

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1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

However, that trade made no sense from day one. 

It made no sense on Day One, agreed. By Day 30, however, it started to make a lot of sense. Paddack looked like a very good #3. Now on Day 48, it looks dicey. Maybe on Day 400 it'll look good again. I'll start counting the days.

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8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

2nd time TJS for him.

Best of luck to him

 

And that's the kicker. This complex surgery is widely thought to be a one-time thing. Recovery is extremely time consuming, but again as a GM you can swallow it because once a player recovers they won't have the same problem.

Either Paddack had a bad surgeon the first time around, or his arm just wasn't built to handle the strain of being a major league pitcher. Really sucks for the Twins and I'm sure that goes x10 for Paddack himself.

 

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8 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Paddack really showed what he's capable of this season, and I hope to see him back next year as good as new.

Good Luck and speedy recovery, he pitched 22 1/3 innings this year, I am not sure he really showed anything other than if he could keep that up and stretch out a bit he could be a useful or better starting pitcher.

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13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The trade with San Diego was quite a gamble for the Twins. They are essentially paying $11 million for Pagan. There was prior knowledge of Paddack's injury and hopefully he can pitch again in a Twins uniform. Gambling can be fun ... sometimes.

We also got 19-year-old pitcher Brayan Medina, probably the best Venezuelan pitching prospect in 2019.

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4 hours ago, bighat said:

And that's the kicker. This complex surgery is widely thought to be a one-time thing. Recovery is extremely time consuming, but again as a GM you can swallow it because once a player recovers they won't have the same problem.

Either Paddack had a bad surgeon the first time around, or his arm just wasn't built to handle the strain of being a major league pitcher. Really sucks for the Twins and I'm sure that goes x10 for Paddack himself.

 

I thought the same thing, either the surgery wasn't very good or his arm may not be build to be an MLB starter. Maybe they could turn him into a late inning reliever when he returns in 2023ish.

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Paddack might get a little time next year but he will be ready to fully return in 2024. At that point it will be 5 years since 2019 and his last successful season as a starter. Is it wise to tender him the next two years on the chance he can find that 2019 form? I would think so but it isn’t a clear yes to me.

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4 hours ago, bighat said:

And that's the kicker. This complex surgery is widely thought to be a one-time thing. Recovery is extremely time consuming, but again as a GM you can swallow it because once a player recovers they won't have the same problem.

Either Paddack had a bad surgeon the first time around, or his arm just wasn't built to handle the strain of being a major league pitcher. Really sucks for the Twins and I'm sure that goes x10 for Paddack himself.

 

Agreed that this sucks for Paddack and the Twins.
 

I’m not sure about the assumptions that a player will only need it once, or that there was a bad surgery the first time around.

those are some pretty big jumps that we don’t have any evidence to prove or disprove.

I think it is safe to say that human beings never evolved through history to throw a baseball 95 miles per hour, hundreds of times per week. Repetitive motion injuries are bound to happen for most pitchers over a long enough horizon.
 

Paddack may not be unique in needing Tommy John a second time, just that it might be earlier than most people who need additional UCL care need it after their playing careers are over.

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10 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed that this sucks for Paddack and the Twins.
 

I’m not sure about the assumptions that a player will only need it once, or that there was a bad surgery the first time around.

those are some pretty big jumps that we don’t have any evidence to prove or disprove.

I think it is safe to say that human beings never evolved through history to throw a baseball 95 miles per hour, hundreds of times per week. Repetitive motion injuries are bound to happen for most pitchers over a long enough horizon.
 

Paddack may not be unique in needing Tommy John a second time, just that it might be earlier than most people who need additional UCL care need it after their playing careers are over.

I totally hear you and didn't mean to come off as critical to the athlete or to the surgeons that worked on him.

Honestly though with that recovery time period, it really has to be a one-time surgery in most cases. As someone mentioned, Clevinger had it twice so it's not unheard of. But from a team perspective, losing an entire year due to injury is a very bad thing for a professional athlete. Losing an additional year - for the same chronic issue - almost seems like a career-killer.

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2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Mike Clevinger of the Padres had a second Tommy John surgery in November of 2020. He was not ready to return for the stat of the season but did return May 3. A similar timeline for Paddack knocks out next season.

Clevinger had a knee injury/inflammation/soreness, that delayed him at the beginning of this season. I believe his elbow/arm from the TJ was completely healed and ready. I have him on a couple fantasy teams, so I had to keep tabs on his progress.

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Probably the most successful return from second Tommy John is Nathan Eovaldi. His numbers post surgery are similar and his velocity is up. A second pitcher with some success is Chris Capuano. Eovaldi was out nearly two years from august 10, 2016 to May 30, 2018. Capuano missed the 2008 and 2009 seasons. From the San Diego Tribune writing this winter about Clevinger’s recovery

Quote

Of the 42 major league pitchers who have had two Tommy John surgeries, the majority did not pitch in the majors again after their second or fared poorly over a short period. But many of those pitchers were well into their 30s at the time of the second surgery.

The surgery isn’t as successful the second time for several reasons. One is that the first time they go in a drill a hole in the bone it is clean with good blood flow. The second time around they will encounter scar tissue in that area.

His return from second Tommy John surgery should be viewed no different than a reclamation project like Archer and Bundy. It is a project may not be ready until 2024. Is that worth the cost of retaining him or would it be better to look for other reclamation projects?

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2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Probably the most successful return from second Tommy John is Nathan Eovaldi. His numbers post surgery are similar and his velocity is up. A second pitcher with some success is Chris Capuano. Eovaldi was out nearly two years from august 10, 2016 to May 30, 2018. Capuano missed the 2008 and 2009 seasons. From the San Diego Tribune writing this winter about Clevinger’s recovery

The surgery isn’t as successful the second time for several reasons. One is that the first time they go in a drill a hole in the bone it is clean with good blood flow. The second time around they will encounter scar tissue in that area.

His return from second Tommy John surgery should be viewed no different than a reclamation project like Archer and Bundy. It is a project may not be ready until 2024. Is that worth the cost of retaining him or would it be better to look for other reclamation projects?

Wow that's very grim.

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Glad he went straight for the surgery instead of the plasma rich whatever injection.  At least now he projects to be back for the last 1/2-2/3's of 2023.

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