Blake Snell a trade target or not

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Fair question - why? I don't think Lynn would be opposed to pitching for the Twins. He was pretty bitter at being ignored (collusion?) and signed late and never got into a groove. He is reasonable in price, steady, and the Rangers would likely part with a fair offer. Darvish is still tough but a real stretch and would have to come easy; the Cubs have problems. The others are not likely to be available, but I was searching for possibilities. The Twins need to ask, at least. The likely route is an Odorizzi deal or Kluber/Hill. There are other ideas that Falvine must have that we are not privy to, but I agree that the Twins are not going to send their top prospects off in a trade. 

 

Nor should they for that gaggle of names mentioned above. None of them inspire me in the least. If you are going to be sending off top prospects, it needs to be for someone in their 20s or 30-31 at most. A guy like Lance Lynn will bust very soon, I'd expect it right away next year, he was never great beforehand and had one good season. Heck look what he did here, he was terrible and I wouldn't expect anything different than that again. 

 

 

[dex8425]

 

Guess I am in the minority here, as I would ship a nice package for Snell. I am tired of losing in the post-season. Aces are hard to come by-he has a very good chance of being that the next 3 years. 

 

You would get him in his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, at 10.5, 12.5, and 16. He has been good/not great the last 2 years, so this is not exactly TB selling at the highest point. Would I give up the farm? No. But a good package. 

 

Maeda-Snell-Berrios-Pineda

Would you trade Berrios for Snell, straight up? Not sure either team would do that but it's intriguing. Twins get 3 years of starting pitching instead of 2. Berrios is looking like he won't sign an extension. Rays save money. Twins get upside and take on risk. 

[tony&rodney]

 

Nor should they for that gaggle of names mentioned above. None of them inspire me in the least. If you are going to be sending off top prospects, it needs to be for someone in their 20s or 30-31 at most. A guy like Lance Lynn will bust very soon, I'd expect it right away next year, he was never great beforehand and had one good season. Heck look what he did here, he was terrible and I wouldn't expect anything different than that again. 

Wait. You must have misunderstood something concerning my interest in Lance Lynn. I have been very clear that the Twins should NOT be trading their top six prospects (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, or Jeffers) for anyone other than a total ace that is controlled for years and these are not available at any rate. The Twins should be interested in Lynn and others for their other desirable prospects and there are teams willing to build for the future. The easy call is that the Twins have a window now and this offseason presents some palatable options for the Twins. The possibilities for signing free agents and trades is desirable for building a winning season and all options to improve the team should be examined.

[cmoss84]

Would you trade Berrios for Snell, straight up? Not sure either team would do that but it's intriguing. Twins get 3 years of starting pitching instead of 2. Berrios is looking like he won't sign an extension. Rays save money. Twins get upside and take on risk.

 

I would. But like you mentioned...I doubt either team would do it. Interesting though!

[h2oface]

 

In the 2020 WS, I believe Cash made the right call by pulling Snell, you have to go w/ the strategy that has gotten you there, you`ve got the best BP to back you up. Cash didn't lose game, the BP showed that they aren`t  super human. Let`s say Cash would leave Snell in  until he got into trouble, odds are that he would  be very quickly. And instead the BP entering w/ a clean slate they come in w/ inherited runners OB w/ 0 outs. The result would be more disastrous w/ Snell being the loser & the goat & Snell's value would be deflated rather than inflated

 

That "call" is an easy one for me. Horribly wrong. Easy because that was the outcome and fact. Not a supposition. If you ignore the moment for the "what got you here", you put someone like Perkins in to blow games when you know he is finished. What we don't know is what Snell, on a roll and thriving, would have done. If one lives on paper the whole time, they will find themselves losing games in the world series that are outliers to the whole pencil pushing game. Do you really think that there was any consideration about Snell's future value in that decision?

 

Snell was horrible most the short 2020 season, though. Long term? I hope they don't go for him. And the last thing this team needs a mopey Lynn around again.

[mike8791]

Lots of great arguments on both sides, but if the Twins are going to really vault into the top tier of teams, acquiring a #1 starter like Snell is exactly what they should be exploring now.  Relying on Maeda to duplicate last season may be a stretch over a regular 162 game season and even if he repeats 2020 performance, what's wrong with having a one-two punch like Maeda and Snell in a short playoff series?  Does anyone think an erratic Berrios can be trusted?

Resign Odo and your rotation becomes top 3 caliber!!

 

Of course, the big question is who to give up?  No, to giving up 3 top prospects, but there are alternatives.  Build a package around a ML regular(Sano or Garvey), one of the three OF prospects and even an additional pitching prospect desired by TB.  If TB, interested, Sano would be the regular to offer, given his HR or nothing approach, but now that Rosey is gone, deletion of Sano in the lineup could be more than this offense could bear, even assuming they resign Cruz. If Sano is key to the deal, then a replacement FA would be needed.  My preference is Lamehieu to improve the team's OBP, but Rooker might be more than adequate, too. Garver would be expendable, but doubt TB sees him as a valuable piece here.  The Twins have a surplus of OF prospects.  Either Larnach or Kirillof should adequately replace Rosario, assuming TB insists on one of the two.  Balazovic or Duran most likely would be the third piece, although  Enlow or Colina might suffice.

 

If the Twins add a couple proven bullpen pieces and resign Cruz, this is a very formidable team; however, team success likely would still greatly depend more on Donaldson and Buxton playing nearly a full season at their career averages.

 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Wait. You must have misunderstood something concerning my interest in Lance Lynn. I have been very clear that the Twins should NOT be trading their top six prospects (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, or Jeffers) for anyone other than a total ace that is controlled for years and these are not available at any rate. The Twins should be interested in Lynn and others for their other desirable prospects and there are teams willing to build for the future. The easy call is that the Twins have a window now and this offseason presents some palatable options for the Twins. The possibilities for signing free agents and trades is desirable for building a winning season and all options to improve the team should be examined.

 

Myself, I would not trade anyone that has a pulse for Lance Lynn. He will flop next year, take that one to the bank. 

 

[Lonestar]

Two thoughts:
1. Many underestimate the acquisition cost of a front-line starter.
2. Front-line starters are cheaper to acquire in the off-season than they are at the deadline.

Here's a pretty good website for analyzing trade value:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Both teams would like to give up less surplus value than they receive in return in the off-season.
Here’s the surplus value for some “front-line” starters available according to that website. YMMV

$52.4M    Blake Snell
$36.4M    Joe Musgrove
$35.9M    Sonny Gray
$20.1M    Yu Darvish
$15.1M    Lance Lynn

 

In order to obtain Snell, the Twins would have to give up Larnach ($30.0M), Balazovic ($17.1M) and Wallner ($6.0M). At least. The Rays would prefer Larnach and Jeffers ($28.0M). At least.

 

[ashbury]

 

Two thoughts:
1. Many underestimate the acquisition cost of a front-line starter.
2. Front-line starters are cheaper to acquire in the off-season than they are at the deadline.

Here's a pretty good website for analyzing trade value:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Both teams would like to give up less surplus value than they receive in return in the off-season.
Here’s the surplus value for some “front-line” starters available according to that website. YMMV

$52.4M    Blake Snell
$36.4M    Joe Musgrove
$35.9M    Sonny Gray
$20.1M    Yu Darvish
$15.1M    Lance Lynn

 

In order to obtain Snell, the Twins would have to give up Larnach ($30.0M), Balazovic ($17.1M) and Wallner ($6.0M). At least. The Rays would prefer Larnach and Jeffers ($28.0M). At least.

I love the site, but that trade simulator also gives a thumbs-up to Arraez/Gordon/Smeltzer for Snell, so I take anything I see there with a grain of salt.
 

[dex8425]

 

Lots of great arguments on both sides, but if the Twins are going to really vault into the top tier of teams, acquiring a #1 starter like Snell is exactly what they should be exploring now.  Relying on Maeda to duplicate last season may be a stretch over a regular 162 game season and even if he repeats 2020 performance, what's wrong with having a one-two punch like Maeda and Snell in a short playoff series?  Does anyone think an erratic Berrios can be trusted?

Resign Odo and your rotation becomes top 3 caliber!!

 

Of course, the big question is who to give up?  No, to giving up 3 top prospects, but there are alternatives.  Build a package around a ML regular(Sano or Garvey), one of the three OF prospects and even an additional pitching prospect desired by TB.  If TB, interested, Sano would be the regular to offer, given his HR or nothing approach, but now that Rosey is gone, deletion of Sano in the lineup could be more than this offense could bear, even assuming they resign Cruz. If Sano is key to the deal, then a replacement FA would be needed.  My preference is Lamehieu to improve the team's OBP, but Rooker might be more than adequate, too. Garver would be expendable, but doubt TB sees him as a valuable piece here.  The Twins have a surplus of OF prospects.  Either Larnach or Kirillof should adequately replace Rosario, assuming TB insists on one of the two.  Balazovic or Duran most likely would be the third piece, although  Enlow or Colina might suffice.

 

If the Twins add a couple proven bullpen pieces and resign Cruz, this is a very formidable team; however, team success likely would still greatly depend more on Donaldson and Buxton playing nearly a full season at their career averages.

Sano has negative trade value. Would you do Garver, Larnach and Duran or Balazovic? Because I'm sure the Rays do that deal. 

[tony&rodney]

My guess is that Larnach, Garver, and Enlow would be enough for Snell. The Twins may be reluctant to part with Garver and the word on Enlow is markedly improved in the last year.

[nicksaviking]

 

Arraez/Gordon/Smeltzer for Snell
 

 

Done.

 

Now go get us Brandon Lowe too.

[ashbury]

I love the site, but that trade simulator also gives a thumbs-up to Arraez/Gordon/Smeltzer for Snell, so I take anything I see there with a grain of salt.

Done.

 

Now go get us Brandon Lowe too.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

Are you accusing me of taking your quote out of context? 

 

Don't you know that facts are only what I choose to believe?

[TopGunn#22]

I would part with Garver to get Snell      Rolling with Jeffers and an affordable vet (and later Rortvedt) would be O.K. with me    I would rather give up Enlow than Balazovic or Dhuran.

I'd HATE to give up Larnach, but we have Kiriloff  (and we could sign David Dahl for 4 million so I would).

 

I would STILL look to deal Sano.  I just think we're a better lineup without him---better AB's.

I'd talk to Colorado  (Marquez or Gray)     I'd talk to Miami.     I'd like to shed the $11 million Sano would get and use the $$ saved to strengthen the BP and rotation.  Maybe Sano could go to Arizona in a deal for Ketel Marte. 

 

And speaking of Ketel Marte, I think whoever first suggested him as a trade target was brilliant.

Marte is a good hitter and has some speed.  He can play SS & CF which helps backstop the Twins with potential missed time for Buxton and Polanco.  He's a pretty good 2B-man.  Much better there with the glove than Arraez who would move to a super-utility role.  I'd look to make a deal for Marte.  I'd include Garver in a potential deal for Marte.

In fact I consider Marte because of his defensive versatility and and bat a higher priority than Snell.

Maybe Garver and Enlow and Wallner for Marte.

Sano for German Marquez.

 

C     Jeffers    $.600

1B    Kiriloff      $.600

2B    K. MARTE     $7.00

3B    Donaldspon   $21.0 

SS    Polanco    $4.33

OF    Kepler  $6.50

OF    Buxton   $5.10

OF    DAHL   $4.0

DH    Cruz     $15.0

 

SP    Maeda  $8.15

SP    Berrios  $6.10

SP    MARQUEZ  $6.0

SP    Pineda  $10.0

SP    Dobnak  $.600

SP    Rich Hill   $2.0

 

BP   B. HAND   $8.0

BP   BRADLEY  $5.0

BP   T. Rogers   $6.0

BP   Duffey  $2.0

BP   Alcala  $.600

BP   Theilbar  $.650

BP   Stashek  $.600

 

Bench

Arraez   $.600

Rooker  $.600

Vet Catcher   Avila  $1.5

UT   E. Hernandez or J. Profar  $7.0

 

Payroll $129 Million.  I purposefully over-priced Cruz at $15 million.  I guessed on Marte $7 Million, Marques $6 Million.    

[mike8791]

To:dex 8425

 

Sano has negative trade value. Would you do Garver, Larnach and Duran or Balazovic? Because I'm sure the Rays do that deal.

 

In a heartbeat!  Jeffers is ready to be #1 catcher, making Garver very expendable.  Losing Larnach mitigated by presence of Kirillof and Rooker, plus relativel youth of Kepler and Buxton.  The OF should remain a strength, barring major injuries.  While losing one of our two top pitching prospects or Enlow would hurt, who would you rather have for the next two years - Snell or a rookie?

 

And BTW, I do not think TB would do that deal.  They would if Jeffers was substituted for Garver, but that ain't going to happen!

[TopGunn#22]

I think that's a little TOO rich for Snell. 

But Garver, Larnach and Enlow would STILL be very attractive for the Rays. 

If the Rays insisted on Jeffers instead of Garver, I would say "fine"  I'd keep Garver's much better power potential and it's not like Garver is a BAD defensive catcher.

I'd do Larnach,  Jeffers and Enlow  for Snell.

[specialiststeve]

 

Two thoughts:
1. Many underestimate the acquisition cost of a front-line starter.
2. Front-line starters are cheaper to acquire in the off-season than they are at the deadline.

Here's a pretty good website for analyzing trade value:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

Both teams would like to give up less surplus value than they receive in return in the off-season.
Here’s the surplus value for some “front-line” starters available according to that website. YMMV

$52.4M    Blake Snell
$36.4M    Joe Musgrove
$35.9M    Sonny Gray
$20.1M    Yu Darvish
$15.1M    Lance Lynn

 

In order to obtain Snell, the Twins would have to give up Larnach ($30.0M), Balazovic ($17.1M) and Wallner ($6.0M). At least. The Rays would prefer Larnach and Jeffers ($28.0M). At least.

 

I said earlier that I would not do it but..... 

 

If "all" is took was Larnach and Jeffers.... I would do it. We have options at both C and OF that can cover that scenerio. They get cheap positional players for a few years and we add an ace.... I could live with that. 

 

If we had to add a second tier pitcher like Enlow or Cantinaro fine but NO............ BIG NO to moving Duran or Balazovic... they both have top of rotation stuff and are just about ready for the show.... 

[prouster]

I haven’t read the whole thread, so sorry if I’m repeating stuff that’s already been said.

 

I’ve seen Garver’s name come up several times as a trade piece. Garver is not going to return anything of value in any trade, even as a secondary or tertiary piece. He has logged one good season when the league was using juiced balls, will be 30 years old in 2021, was below replacement level in 2020, and hit worse than most backup catchers this year. Albeit lots of players had a rough 2020, Garver slashed .167/ .247/ .264, which led to a wRC+ of 41. He also struck out in a hair over 45% of his at bats. He really, really damaged his trade value.

 

I think that any trade for Snell is going to have to start with Duran or Balazovic.

[cmoss84]

 

I would part with Garver to get Snell      Rolling with Jeffers and an affordable vet (and later Rortvedt) would be O.K. with me    I would rather give up Enlow than Balazovic or Dhuran.

I'd HATE to give up Larnach, but we have Kiriloff  (and we could sign David Dahl for 4 million so I would).

 

I would STILL look to deal Sano.  I just think we're a better lineup without him---better AB's.

I'd talk to Colorado  (Marquez or Gray)     I'd talk to Miami.     I'd like to shed the $11 million Sano would get and use the $$ saved to strengthen the BP and rotation.  Maybe Sano could go to Arizona in a deal for Ketel Marte. 

 

And speaking of Ketel Marte, I think whoever first suggested him as a trade target was brilliant.

Marte is a good hitter and has some speed.  He can play SS & CF which helps backstop the Twins with potential missed time for Buxton and Polanco.  He's a pretty good 2B-man.  Much better there with the glove than Arraez who would move to a super-utility role.  I'd look to make a deal for Marte.  I'd include Garver in a potential deal for Marte.

In fact I consider Marte because of his defensive versatility and and bat a higher priority than Snell.

Maybe Garver and Enlow and Wallner for Marte.

Sano for German Marquez.

 

C     Jeffers    $.600

1B    Kiriloff      $.600

2B    K. MARTE     $7.00

3B    Donaldspon   $21.0 

SS    Polanco    $4.33

OF    Kepler  $6.50

OF    Buxton   $5.10

OF    DAHL   $4.0

DH    Cruz     $15.0

 

SP    Maeda  $8.15

SP    Berrios  $6.10

SP    MARQUEZ  $6.0

SP    Pineda  $10.0

SP    Dobnak  $.600

SP    Rich Hill   $2.0

 

BP   B. HAND   $8.0

BP   BRADLEY  $5.0

BP   T. Rogers   $6.0

BP   Duffey  $2.0

BP   Alcala  $.600

BP   Theilbar  $.650

BP   Stashek  $.600

 

Bench

Arraez   $.600

Rooker  $.600

Vet Catcher   Avila  $1.5

UT   E. Hernandez or J. Profar  $7.0

 

Payroll $129 Million.  I purposefully over-priced Cruz at $15 million.  I guessed on Marte $7 Million, Marques $6 Million.    

 

Marte is AWESOME. But he is going to be very expensive in a trade. 

[h2oface]

I am not ready to give up on Garver after 23 games/72 at bats in some injury riddled covid short season! A guy with an incredible work ethic that just got better year after year after year after year, hit the bigs, and got better and better and better. Then he performed poorly for not even a month and was injured for most of the weirdest 60 game season in the history of MLB......... I am just not one to think that is indicitive of the future. At all. That would be short sited and very fickle of me. 

 

And just because Jeffers, who I was calling for all season and an apologist of, performed very well for all of 26 games and 55 at bats (but not even close to as spectacular as the full season of Garver's just one normal season ago in 2019 - not even close.... .791 OPS to .995!) I am not ready to bank that he will perform like that over the long haul of a 162 game season. 

 

But - I am very high on a very affordable Garver/Jeffers tandem, and great teams don't break that kind of controllable asset behind the plate up. I bet the FO isn't even considering it, as well. I bet we will have the best total performance behind the plate of any team in MLB the coming year because of both of them, and look forward to watching and enjoying it.

 

This from AceWrigley's earlier post needs repeating....

 

"Blake Snell failed to record a quality start in 16 outings this year between the regular season and the postseason {but probably would have if not pulled in the 6th inning of game 6 of the 2020 World Series with one out and a runner on first, cruising and having only giving up a measly single and the second hit of the game and pitching a shutout with 9 Ks, no walks, two hits and only 73 pitches in the BIG game.....}. This year Snell averaged 4.55 innings per start in the regular season and 4.8 innings per start in the postseason.

 

This year Snell ranked 92nd among all pitchers in fWAR with 0.6 in 11 regular-season starts. Since the start of the 2019 season Snell ranks 55th in fWAR. Over his first two seasons in 2016-17 Snell ranked 81st in fWAR.

 

Snell’s 2018 Cy Young season appears to be the outlier. Of the 81 pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings this year, Snell at 29.4 percent easily had the highest percentage of fly balls result in home runs.

 

Buyer beware."

[prouster]

I am not ready to give up on Garver after 23 games/72 at bats in some injury riddled covid short season! A guy with an incredible work ethic that just got better year after year after year after year, hit the bigs, and got better and better and better. Then he performed poorly for not even a month and was injured for most of the weirdest 60 game season in the history of MLB......... I am just not one to think that is indicitive of the future. At all. That would be short sited and very fickle of me.

 

And just because Jeffers performed very well for all of 26 games and 55 at bats (but not even close to as spectacular as the full season of Garver's just one normal season ago in 2019 - not even close.... .791 OPS to .995!) I am not ready to guess that he will perform like that over the long haul of a 162 game season.

 

But - I am very high on a very affordable Garver/Jeffers tandem, and great teams don't break that kind of controllable asset behind the plate up. I bet the FO isn't even considering it, as well. I bet we will have the best total performance behind the plate of any team in MLB the coming year because of both of them, and look forward to watching and enjoying it.

 

This from AceWrigley's earlier post needs repeating....

 

"Blake Snell failed to record a quality start in 16 outings this year between the regular season and the postseason {but probably would have if not pulled in the 6th inning of game 6 of the 2020 World Series with one out and a runner on first, cruising and having only giving up a measly single and the second hit of the game and pitching a shutout with 9 Ks, no walks, two hits and only 73 pitches in the BIG game.....}. This year Snell averaged 4.55 innings per start in the regular season and 4.8 innings per start in the postseason.

 

This year Snell ranked 92nd among all pitchers in fWAR with 0.6 in 11 regular-season starts. Since the start of the 2019 season Snell ranks 55th in fWAR. Over his first two seasons in 2016-17 Snell ranked 81st in fWAR.

 

Snell’s 2018 Cy Young season appears to be the outlier. Of the 81 pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings this year, Snell at 29.4 percent easily had the highest percentage of fly balls result in home runs.

 

Buyer beware."

I don’t disagree with your take on Garver. I do think that he’d fetch basically nothing in any trade, even if he’s not the centerpiece. I know I wouldn’t trade for him right now.

[tony&rodney]

If I am a GM looking for a catcher, then Garver is absolutely a strong target. Last season was an anomaly and Mitch has an excellent reputation as a hard working player; there is value there. The Twins win by keeping him or by letting him go in a huge trade.

Marte is a multi-skilled athlete and a luxury for Arizona. They have a decent minor league system but would be willing to part with him for a well-rounded package of prospects plus some mlb fillers. Some combination (not all) of Cave, Garver, Dobnak, Thorpe, plus good prospects like Canterino, Wallner, Kavaco, etc. could work. The Twins are not going to part with their top prospects, especially after dropping Eddie Rosario. The Diamondbacks can see  value in a few solid futures and reserves for their current roster. 

The topic was Snell, however, and unless the Rays are looking to save money I cannot see any benefit to giving up too much for 4-5 innings every fifth day. I'm not sure i would trade Larnach for Snell, straight up. That said, any conversation should be widened to include others pending the direction of Tampa Bay on roster and salary.

[Eris]

Tradevalue has the Rays getting 60.9 in value for Blake Snell. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/

 

A comparable Twins offer would be something like Kirilloff (38), Balazovic (17.1) or Duran (17.9), and Rortvedt (2.9).

 

The closest the Twins have to Patino’s value (48.2) is Lewis (47.7). A trade involving Lewis would be something like Lewis, Celestino (8.5) and Rortvedt (2.9)

 

If the Rays wanted pitching and catching, a package of Balazovic, Duran and Jeffers (28.0) would have a trade value of 63.

[4twinsJA]

Don't think Twins fans would have been happy at that price-any of the 3 scenarios mentioned by Eris. Rays are selling high and getting plenty of potential return.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Don't think Twins fans would have been happy at that price-any of the 3 scenarios mentioned by Eris. Rays are selling high and getting plenty of potential return.

 

Sitting on prospects has never gotten this team over the top.....nor has not signing free agents. 

[GP830]

 

Sitting on prospects has never gotten this team over the top.....nor has not signing free agents. 

You're right. We've never gotten over the top, nor has it ever felt like we were over the top. 

 

There are always easy-to-spot needs going into every season. Today would be a very fun day to be a Padres fan. This isn't a type of joy we as Twins fans have gotten to feel very often.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're right. We've never gotten over the top, nor has it ever felt like we were over the top. 

 

There are always easy-to-spot needs going into every season. Today would be a very fun day to be a Padres fan. This isn't a type of joy we as Twins fans have gotten to feel very often.

 

They did under McPhail, when they went out and acquired FAs and veterans......

[GP830]

By the end of the week, the Padres will have acquired Sonny Grey, Luis Castillo, Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi, Trevor Bauer, etc. 

[strumdatjaguar]

By the end of the week, the Padres will have acquired Sonny Grey, Luis Castillo, Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi, Trevor Bauer, etc.

And The Pods will still be 2nd Place in the NL West. Usually, buying that many FAs doesn’t achieve success. Instead, build a contender and then add two or three pieces to succeed in MLB.